Hellaby Holdings

[pearljam]

Hi all

Just new to this kind of investing (always previously focused on property and wanted to add a more liquid asset to the basket)Do any of you think that HBY still has some good growth left in it??

[Gryffyn]

Still holding some so I guess so :-)

[KJ]

IMO it has good growth left-FY to 30/6/04 NPAT should be around $21m compared to $15.7 last yr-this puts the PE around 11.5.

ROE 18% and div yield 10%-has a history of strong growth.Strong NZ$ helps.Its retail businesses seem to be improving.

There is another thread on HBY which may help you.

[Gryffyn]

Sunday Star featured it a month or so back as one of the leading yield plays with some growth for this year. Even if the share price stays as is, it is near 10% gross. As kj says above, the p/e is low - esp compared to other prospects on NZX

[pearljam]

Cheers guys, muchly appreciated

[Gryffyn]

Up 6c so far today albeit on usual puny vol. Any ideas?

Disc: HBY

[wsheridan]

Plenty of growth left in it yet though as an investment company that has grown in size over the past few years it faces the age-old issue of having to find larger and larger investments to keep up its capital-growth margins.

The thing to watch out for is any sign of it doing a Brierley - in terms of trying to make a big gain on a single investment rather than applying its skill to smaller businesses that need to get bigger.

[Gryffyn]

So WS - are you a holder?

[Seti]

I urge caution on this one. One of its larger revenue earners had a flat year.

[pearljam]

Would you be referring to Autolign Seti??

[Gryffyn]

Thanks Seti - care to elaborate.

[Seti]

Not exactly PJ as Autolign is a small contributor to the group. I understand its parent division struggled somewhat.

[KJ]

I guess you must be talking about Brake & Transmission-at H/Y total revenue was up over 10% and NPAT up from $6.2m to $9.3m.

On 20/2/04 the coy stated that the F/Y result were expected to be comfortably ahead of last yr.Can you give us more info?

[pearljam]

I used to work for BNT and still have a couple of friends there, i vaguely remember hearing something about the age restrictions on imports affecting revenue and they also thought the boom in the housing market may have meant that people were upgrading cars rather than maintaining their existing vehicles. Looking at the fact there was approx 7.8 billion in car sales over the whole market last year tends to support this as well

[Seti]

My source informs me FY for BNT group was zero or slightly negative growth.

[rosey]

gidday
just thought i would show a chart for this baby since i have learnt to do it
strong support and resistance and not much elsehttp://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-5/715178/HBY001.gif

[Gryffyn]

Up 13c this morning :-) What gives - good news soon or just a small vol jump to be ignored?


Disc HBY

[KJ]

For those with better TA skills-for my education would this pass as a symmetrical triangle breakout? Trying to get to grips with some of these things.

[Gryffyn]

Hardly anybody selling with good buy support above previous levels.

[Phaedrus]

KJ, This was indeed a symmetrical triangle breakout. Symmetrical triangles are most commonly continuation patterns, and that would appear to be the case here. When preceded by an uptrend as this one was, 64% of symmetrical triangles break out to the upside - this made an upside breakout for HBY nearly twice as likely as a downside breakout.

[drum]

Excuse my ignorance Phaedrus, but what do you mean by "continuation pattern"?

[KJ]

Thanks Phaedrus-I took note of your comments under the MHI thread.So there is a very high chance that it will not reverse.

[Phaedrus]

Drum, Broadly speaking, patterns can be split into two groups - continuation and reversal. Continuation patterns resume the preceding trend, while reversal patterns reverse it, turning an uptrend into a downtrend or a downtrend into an uptrend.
Symmetrical triangles are more commonly continuation patterns rather than reversal patterns, in that if they come after an uptrend, they are more likely to break out upwards, continuing the trend. If they come after a downtrend, they are slightly more likely to break downwards, continuing the trend, rather than upwards, reversing it. Just be clear that we are talking about probabilities here, not certainties. The aim is to position yourself such that the odds, however slight, are working in your favour.

[drum]

I'm with you. Many thanks.

[Gryffyn]

Thanks as always Phaedrus

[Gryffyn]

Seems to be holding up there with even fewer sellers.

Disc: HBY

[Gryffyn]

Yet more upward movement on vols out of the ordinary. Anyone here buying/selling/holding?

Disc: HBY

[Gryffyn]

HBY
15/07/2004
ASSET

REL: 1522 HRS Hellaby Holdings Limited

ASSET: HBY: Hellaby Holdings Stock Exchange Announcement - 15 July 2004

Hellaby Holdings today advised that it has sold its 50% shareholdings in two
smaller non-core businesses, Taylors Manufacturing Ltd in Christchurch and
Bert Teubel Ltd in South Auckland.

David Houldsworth, Managing Director of Hellaby Holdings Ltd confirmed that
the net consideration for the sale of the two shareholdings was approximately
$2 million.
End CA:00102643 For:HBY Type:ASSET Time:2004-07-15:15:22:31

[Gryffyn]

It's from last week but perhaps some spec that money may be returned as divvy or special divvy?

[Gryffyn]

Either somebody knows something about something to be announced soon or a lot of people suddenly want HBY. Now pushed way above a lot of trend lines on abnormal volumes.

[KJ]

As I said earlier I am trying to learn a little more about TA.I did read that the longer it takes for the symmetrical triangle to form,the more significant they are and the more significant the breakout.

Perhaps that is the case here.

[k1w1]

Perhaps its all the techies buying it because they saw a symmetrical triangle :D

what comes first - the chicken or the egg ?

[Gryffyn]

And up some more this morning. I'm sure we are beyond charting now.

[Gryffyn]

Would TA punters care to post a chart if they get a chance. TIA.

[Gryffyn]

Well, I've bailed on this at 5.54. I think it will hold or drift around the 5.50 mark for a while so other opportunities beckon. It's been a great little earner.

Disc: No HBY anymore.

[KJ]

Hoping that it's taking a breather before heading north.

[Gryffyn]

I think the 10% or so its put on in the last couple of weeks factors in all the good news like recent asset sales and maybe a special divvy. Good luck kj but I'm profit taking - it would have to go well past $6 to repeat the gains of the last few weeks which I don't think is likely.

[nelehdine]

Hi Gryffyn,from the previous posts a few months ago you are/were obviously a fan of HBY. They have rocketed up to 635 over the last few day ( add in the recent 19c div and your over 650 !! ) I see you got out at 554, just wondering if you got back in ?? The BBQ Factory purchase was probably the bargain of the year, will probably add upto $5m profit this year.

Strip out the tax benefits last year and eps were approx 38c ... add say 15% growth for the existing business to get to 44c ... now add the BBQ earnings less financing cost of the purchase ( we don't know the purchase price but even at $25m the finance cost at 8% is only $2m) of $3m / 50m shares = 6cps gives a total of 50c. So at 635 the forward P/E is still less than 13 !! A company growing earnings at this rate probably deserves a P/E of 15 so a price of $7.50 by next years earnings announcement could be justified. The div this year was 35c .. next year could be 40c ... so the yield is still very very attractive.

All in all a great stock to own and hold !!

[nelehdine]

Just another thought ... at $7.50 a share split could be on the agenda at next year's AGM !!! ... about the same level as the recent POT and CAV splits

Disc: hold HBY,POT & CAV