pot a winner

[duncan macgregor]

This Is the best run port In the southern hemisphere. Has been on a steady uptrend for ages yet goes unmentioned while most posters waffle on about why their dog Is not making a run. The wall of wood Is growing china needs It, free trade looming get with It guys back a winner. Exports on the rise, building and retail down, farming coming good, the one In the box seat Is pot. They even load up at south Auckland and steal custom from poa with their Inland port. Most people It appears are so preoccupied with losers that a winner goes unnoticed. Its OKAY to win Its not a crime
macdunk

[Harrys]

So, your point is?

[Lawso]

I think he's saying buy pot. But I can't find a seller in my neighbourhood.

PS. Sorry to be a smart ass. Fact is, I agree, POT is an excellent stock to buy and hold.

[Harrys]

I agree with all that and am glad I got a few last year. But i see POA are deepening their channells to accomodate ships drawing 12m.

How will that affect POT. Can they take ships that big?

[duncan macgregor]

This Is a numbers game work the numbers, the numbers go like this according to an article in sharechats personal Investor
SOUTHPORT down 11.2, LYTTELTON down 5.8, PORTS OF AUCKLAND down 9.9,
northland down 6.3 PORT OF TAURANGA up 20.9. That Is what happened according to share chat which means nothing now, It Is what Is going to happen that counts. POT Is the best positioned port to take the sudden Increase In exports. Timber and farm produce due for big Increases POT have positioned themselves to steal custom from POA.
I fully expect another 20pc rise plus divi this financial year at least. People dont like to discuss winners on the forum but rave on endlessly about losers so perhaps I might change some of you.
Rave on about losers makes you one tell me about your winners.
macdunk

[kittydashwood]

How do you feel about SPN ? Mister Mac

[duncan macgregor]

SPN Is not where the action Is. The centre and upper north Island Is where It will happen. I never stick my money on anything that Is not In the box seat, or wonder why a dog Is a dog. Look at the number of posts on this forum by people commiserating about bad service by RBD. Seeking out who Is going to win Is easy, get In first. I had a thirty pc ride with POA told everybody on sharechat to climb aboard with zilch response sold them all, and Invested In HQP nearly doubled my money since then In twelve months. POT Is IN the box seat It will happen. POA will stay flat, LPC have the pomme union to hold them back. My policy Is first In after giving the company the practical going over, and first out when the red light comes up. POT Is a good long term buy look for over 20pc plus divi pa.
macdunk

[glennj]

Agree POT has been a well run company & has strategic advantages. But the PE is pushing 30 and the price sales ratio is over 6. Don't you think the price is already reflecting future expectations and that there might not be better
value in some of the other ports?
Have you actually studied which regions are likely to have the biggest across wharf volume increases in the next ten years or so ???
I believe we can expect very good things from other ports besides POT and they are currently more attractively priced and have a higher yield.
Hold interests in three port companies, used to be four but I switched out of POT after a good ride.

[duncan macgregor]

POT Is still trending despite pe which means nothing to me.
They all told me on sharechat that the PE was to high on POA when I told them POA will trend. I made 30pc that year on POA and sold out.The first thing to remember when buying shares Is not PE but what good news Is In the pipe line. POT Is all good news In the pipeline they have good labour relations are extremely well managed and sitting In the box seat. They not only sitting In the box seat but expanding Into enemy territory with their Inland ports. The ports of NZ are about to Increase volume of exports and a decrease In volume of Imports In my opinion. I expect rising Interest rates NZ dollar reduction with Increased exports. POT Is the port with all the good news. This share Is trending up for 12 months at least.

[Placebo]

I believe all these sea ports have been outperformed by AIA. Shouldn't that be where your money is?

[duncan macgregor]

Been there done that. Now Is not the time. I did rather well out of AIA that was then this Is now. Never make the mistake of wondering what Is better than a winner or why a loser Is a loser and bleat on.
AIA are under threat In auckland I am only Interested In what Is trending. POT Is trending when It stops I am gone same as AIA.
macdunk

[Liberty]

Macdunk, if you don't think AIA is trending, you need to go and look at the chart again. It has been in a solid confirmed uptrend for years.

[craic]

DMG - Your wall of wood that China wants is an illusion. I have no interest in any port company but between 68 and 73 I was a Timber Inspector for NZFS responsible for inspecting and clearing logs and other timber for export (and import). At that time NZ had lost its position as the home of the biggest man-made forest in the world. China had taken over that role. Ask anyone who has forest assets now how comfortable they are. There is no market now or in the forseeable future except at discounts. Contractors are going broke. I wish you well with your investments but don't back timber.
PS. Iwas not based in the Mount but I spent various short periods relieving there when things got tough. e.g 7 logships lined up along the wharf with seven more in the roads waiting to take their p;lace.

[duncan macgregor]

Liberty sorry to contradict but I sold AIA over 6 months ago at a higher price than they are today. That was the end of the trend.
Whenuapai If It goes ahead will keep AIA flat.

[Placebo]

McDunc I tossed up AIA vs POT vs POA and chose AIA. Rather pleased I did, and the charts still tell a good story. Nothing has changed and it still has upside potential. I think it's a lower risk than the sea ports too (lots of them in competition, AIA is virtually a monopoly).

I agree re POT being a sound business and well positioned. Just had a look at comparative 1-year chart for AIA and POT and you know what? You're right! POT is outperforming AIA over last 12 months in price growth.

Good luck with the trees.

[Liberty]

MacDunk, just because you sold at a higher price 6 months ago does not mean that the uptrend has ended. In fact it is very much intact.

All trends have highs and dips. You obviously sold at a high - congratulations - but the overall uptrend has not ended. Look at a chart of AIA dating right back to the float. For a long-term trend follower, a flat period is no reason to sell if no sell signal is given.

FWIW POT sure is a winner, I only take issue with your assertion that AIA's (primary) uptrend had ended.

[Phaedrus]

It is interesting to compare the price histories of AIA and POT. The 4 charts below use periods ranging from 1 to 6 years. The scale on the left is the percentage price change, taken from the chart starting date. As you can see, varying the start date radically alters the relative performance of these two stocks.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/AiaPot002.gif

[Liberty]

A picture tells a thousand words. Thanks Phaedrus.

[duncan macgregor]

You are right It does depend on the type of trader you are. I look for short sharp trends that follow behind good news. My average Is 6 months In a company and out. As Pheadrus shows In the charts, It depends on the timing. My method Is to buy In regardless of pe, as long as I see the good news In the pipe line, and It Is a good well run company. I had a good run with AIA, and continued the run with POT. IF I stayed with AIA my money would have stagnated. I am keeping carefull watch on IFT with Whenuapai In mind that Is a better bet than AIA. POT has good news still to come, and will trend up for some time. A little bit of TA, followed by a big bit of FA, mixed Up with a large bit of common sense, with loyalty to nothing or no one Is how I operate.
macdunk

[Lawnmower]

Re AIA & Whenuapai, here is how one broker reacted to last weeks news
- Short term "Market Perform" (Downgraded from Outperform)
- Long Term "Outperform" (Unchanged)
So it comes down to your timeframe, and what type of investor/trader you are.
Same broker rated IFT (co backer of Whenuapai) as "Outperform/Outperform"

[Placebo]

Dunc, I think you take the right approach to your investing. You've raised an interesting discussion, thanks for the heads-up on this one.

And Phaedrus, big ups for the charts. I feel a lot better now [8D]

[Harrys]

I question how much growth remains in POT over the next year so I
sold my small shareholding at 5.15 and bought TWR for 1.67 instead.
Would have liked to keep POT for the longer term but once its PE gets
high I like to look for something cheaper. TWR's PE is too high for me
at the moment but I am sure it will come down soon.

Anyway someone. Tell me what "outperform" means. I'm new here.

[duncan macgregor]

HI HARRY I told them all on sharechat to buy POA before the american cup. I was told the PE was to high And made 30pc. The PE is only a small consideration its tomorrows earnings that count. Publicity whats in the pipe line will the sector its in go up or down how well run is the company etc etc. POT is a good safe long term hold on a nice trend i dont care about PE.
cheers MACDUNK

[whiteheron]

I often see abbreviations such as TA and FA and i am a bit perplexed as to what they actually mean on this site , i could put my own interpretation on them but i may be way off the mark !!!!!
Is anybody able to help me , that is , if the meaning is printable??
Thanks

[whiteheron]

Okay ---- i pick they are "technical analysis " and "fundimental analysis"
Correct ??????????????????

[duncan macgregor]

It was more fun thinking what i thought you were thinking. there is a good site explaining ta and fa on sharechat education where I picked up a few hints from posters on this forum. SNOOPY and PHEADRUS both have ex contributions in their respective fields. All the ingredients are there to come up with a system that will leave the rest of us in your wake. I hate initials myself but ta beats writing technical analysis and fa can have a double meaning which could come in handy. cheers macdunk

[whiteheron]

Thanks Duncan ----------Im off to bed now

[foodee]

Playing around with charts on the Big Chart site trying to learn a bit more TA. Could not help noticing that POT looks like forming a symmetrical triangle - ? breaking out.
Any techie care to comment.

disc: none held

[Leai_Se_Tupe]

That's a descending triangle since the high in the 2nd week of June, The support at $5.10 has been broken so $5.10 will probably become a resistance level now.

[foodee]

LST
Ta, another lesson and probably need a better set of tools

cheers

[glennj]

MACDUNK have you bothered to research which ports are likely to have the biggest percentage increases in volumes going forward yet?
eg POT does about 4x trade of NTH now in forestry related product but will this relativity stay the same?
;) POT was smart doing the joint venture!

Also some good things looking forward for Lyttleton & Bluff.

You appear to do well out of momentum investing but I suggest you might do even better with more FA.

Have you noticed that Infratil & others have been reducing their weighting in POT? POT is a top company but the price now is rather high. (a lot of people thought I was silly when I quit Briscoes saying it was overvalued but it was the right move. I've now switched out of POT, a company I admire, because longer term I think there are better opportunities elsewhwere)

Disclosure. Invest in port companies.

[duncan macgregor]

GLENNJ, I must admit I havent bothered doing to much research of late on the subject. POT have been on a steady uptrend, but seem to stall at this time of year which Is normal. PE means nothing to me I Ignore It. What really matters Is not PE, but what I call GN [good news In the pipe line]. They have the north Island sewn up and now having a go at the South Island. They control the only deep water ports In the country that matter. If you think as I do that exports will take off, then this Is the best positioned port company In the country. Ask yourself the question, [what Is the only port to set up an Inland port on the doorstep of a rival]?. Then leap frog them to the north and steal the business from the other side. Look out south Island they are coming to get you. MACDUNK

[duncan macgregor]

More good news In granny herald about POT. Stealing custom from POA with the Inland port. I wonder how long before they set LPC bleating the same sad news as well. Money Invested 12 months ago showing a return of over 24% with the likelyhood of more of the same. POT Is well positioned to take advantage of the next export boom and make the competition look like has beens.

[kittydashwood]

Surely SPN is the hidden gem.

[donner]

On what basis is that Kitty? Forestry, coal, growth potential?

[kittydashwood]

What if LPC miss out to coal trucked to SPN, it's closer isn't it? Also noticed US fund has been adding to it's holding slowly. Said fund rates #4 at the moment globally, of they hold POT too.

[donner]

Thanks Kitty. I appreciate that kind of commentary.;)

But what chance of that with an article like this in tow? Last para notwithstanding.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3005095a13,00.html

[airedale]

Kitty, there is something wrong with your geography, Bluff will never be closer to the west coast coal mines than Lyttelton. The only other way by road is through the Haast Pass and Central Otago.The mind boggles.

[duncan macgregor]

Proof of the pudding comes out on wed. Will Macdunk be right again or will he have egg on his face?. POA report not to flash infact the other ports have had a hard time keeping up the lot of them. POT i predict will have a better result than any of them. The other result i look forward to is HQP. cheers macdunk

[Placebo]

MacDunk I have the McWipes ready

[whiteheron]

POT is an excellent long term hold , but i feel is fully priced at present and is likely to move up very slowly in the near future

I purchased at around $4.30 Mar 03 and sold half at $5.32 Jun04 , a pretty reasonable return when dividends included

The remaining half i will hold long term

Time ,as always , will tell

[duncan macgregor]

A very large trade went through yesterday. POA on strike for four days whats going on?. I did know POA was in trouble with the workforce but what is going on at POT?. $10 mill trade who sold and who bought i missed it?. macdunk

[Toddy]

You would not win the lottery if you guessed 'IFT' sold another 2mil shares.
I cannot wait until the day that IFT has sold down their total share holding in POT, and then we will really see a climb in the share price.
As IFT have a place on the POT Board expect to see a 'dislosure of interest' statement sometime today.

Buyer?

[k1w1]

Well MacDunk this share price looks like its going sideways to me, what does your theory say to do in this situation ?

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI, The macdunk theory must take a back seat until he finds a broker. I didnt get caught but will be extra carefull in future. POT will move sideways like you say with the large shareholder selling out. POA i bought at $6-25 in sept 2002and sold at $8-10 and bought a half lot in POT at $4-44 and a half lot of HQP. What to do next is wait and see. POT will trend up sharply later its only a matter of time, and will the money be better elsewhere. POA will be underpriced after the strike,which incidentely will get worse from what the truck driver tells me. This might turn itself into a buying opportunity later,after all the bad news is out. Perhaps i might sell POT, and buy POA, then later do another switch back to POT. Incidentely KIWI i bet the tea lady at ACCESS brokerage knew what was going on, pity they didnt have truck drivers i could have warned you then. cheers macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

KIWI Looks like the tea lady knew what she was talking about. There is still more good news to come. Its a good long term buy trust your old mate, buy a winner for a change cheers macdunk.
ps how did you get on with NUH?.

[duncan macgregor]

Some big trades going on today high volume price going up fast. macdunk.

[morv]

a long term game plan could be that pot will play the role that patricks play with toll in oz. a total transportation service from delivery of raw materials to despatch of finished product to anywhere with single computer invioce and customs documentation for any industry. or maybe patricks could become cornerstone shareholder in pot.

[duncan macgregor]

The share price is going ahead as expected. The good news is still coming guys the share price will still trend up. macdunk

[malcolm]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;676]This Is the best run COMPANY In the southern hemisphere. Has been on a steady uptrend for ages yet goes unmentioned while most posters waffle on about why their dog Is not making a run. The wall of OIL Is growing china needs It, free trade looming get with It guys back a winner. Exports on the rise, building and retail down, farming coming good, the one In the box seat Is NZOG. They even load up at south and steal custom from poa with their Inland port. MAC DUNK It appears IS so preoccupied with losers that a winner goes unnoticed. Its OKAY to win Its not a crime TO INVEST IN OIL COMPANYS LIKE NOG:cool::cool::cool:

[duncan macgregor]

[QUOTE=duncan macgregor;676]This Is the best run COMPANY In the southern hemisphere. Has been on a steady uptrend for ages yet goes unmentioned while most posters waffle on about why their dog Is not making a run. The wall of OIL Is growing china needs It, free trade looming get with It guys back a winner. Exports on the rise, building and retail down, farming coming good, the one In the box seat Is NZOG. They even load up at south and steal custom from poa with their Inland port. MAC DUNK It appears IS so preoccupied with losers that a winner goes unnoticed. Its OKAY to win Its not a crime TO INVEST IN OIL COMPANYS LIKE NOG:cool::cool::cool: MALCOLM, we are all very happy for you but stick to reality. NZO were over $1-30 at one stage about then, now are $1-47 paying one dividend. Pot were about $4-00 payed numerous dividends are now $6-45. I think if you sold your NZO then and bought POT at that stage the dividends would have bettered NZO never mind the sp increase. Macdunk

[malcolm]

[QUOTE=malcolm;195596] MALCOLM, we are all very happy for you but stick to reality. NZO were over $1-30 at one stage about then, now are $1-47 paying one dividend. Pot were about $4-00 payed numerous dividends are now $6-45. I think if you sold your NZO then and bought POT at that stage the dividends would have bettered NZO never mind the sp increase. Macdunk

don,t panic dunk just checking your memory:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

[Shrewd Crude]

MD -They even load up at south Auckland, bought a half lot in Pot, pot is a winner, Some big trades going on today HIGH

famous Mackdunk quotes taken from the thread...
.....
I dont condone any of these practices...
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:s4M7WtlN13IJ:http://www.napnt.org/images/pot-leaf-big.jpg (http://www.napnt.org/images/pot-leaf-big.jpg)
:cool:
.^sc

[STRAT]

famous Mackdunk quotes taken from the thread...
.....
I dont condone any of these practices...
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:s4M7WtlN13IJ:http://www.napnt.org/images/pot-leaf-big.jpg (http://www.napnt.org/images/pot-leaf-big.jpg)
:cool:
.^scLOL, Shouldnt that read

MD -They even load up at south Auckland, bought a half pound bag of Pot, pot is a winner, Some big trades going on. Today Im HIGH as a kite :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[STRAT]

I dont condone any of these practices...
http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:s4M7WtlN13IJ:http://www.napnt.org/images/pot-leaf-big.jpg (http://www.napnt.org/images/pot-leaf-big.jpg)
:cool:
.^scWhy not Shrewdy, Its a great chill pill for hyper active young men ;)