awe

[karlos]

Thought i learnt so much from ST posters in last 3 years.Threw 5 figures at AWE 2 weeks ago.Looked to be at lower area of trading range.In at 2.51, now stressing at 2.31.Booze helps.Can anyone enlighten me? Cheers

[STRAT]

Hi karlos.
How did you come about choosing the timing of your entry?

[troyvdh]

Karlos.....do not freet...I have been in the mkt for 30 yrs.....AWE is OK.....the issue is are you......AWE has dosh in the bank...stirling management....just remember you are now an investor......relax....remember the difference between money and wealth......wealth ..takes time and is worth more than a few k in the bank....

[karlos]

Hey Strat,lows of late nov 08 & june 09 in line with 2.50, poo ok, did not think absolute low but has gone below lows in line of mid oct 08 & july 09. Cheers for boost of confidence troyvdh

[karlos]

Thought easy money in trading range.Bugger.

[STRAT]

Hey Strat,lows of late nov 08 & june 09 in line with 2.50, poo ok, did not think absolute low but has gone below lows in line of mid oct 08 & july 09. Cheers for boost of confidence troyvdhHi Karlos.
I see where you drew your trend line but Im not sure I get the significance of the rest. Can you add more?

[STRAT]

Thought easy money in trading range.Bugger.I see. You expected it to bounce off that line?

[karlos]

Positives from ASBSecurities, poo upwards & appears to be lower area of upward trendline.Thought this was easy? duh

[karlos]

Bounce of line.YOU got it buddy

[STRAT]

Bounce of line.YOU got it buddyI assume you bought on the 10th?
Every one sees it their own way but this is what I see.

Your buy was after 8 down days in a row and the line only means something after it is respected. ie buy after the bounce not before.

The line is in the wrong place. ( ignored the Oct08 bottom )

On that day. OBV was still falling as were most other indicators

Volume has been increasing since the price started falling on 29/7/09. bad sign.

I wouldnt be too worried though. AWE has been going up all year all be it in a jerky manner


but if you want some real advice ask Phaedrus or AA. Im still a student at this game :D

[STRAT]

Not sure where you saw the trading range. I threw a few lines at all possibilities I could see but none look like a trading range to me :confused:

[karlos]

Cheers for input Strat, did buy on 10th,appeared to me slowing low of candlesticks to me also.One more beer till bed, night.

[STRAT]

Hi Phaedrus.
Your chart shows Kalos buying on the 11th but he bought on the 10th so he didnt wait for the bounce, rather he hoped it would happen. Turns out it did but when he bought it was still heading south.:D

Correct me if I am wrong and although its a small detail does it not show a major misconception on how this stuff all works?

Sorry to seem to be talkin about ya rather than to ya Karlos but these kinds of discussions are great learning experiences for me too

[Phaedrus]

Well spotted, Strat. I'll make the corrections and re-post everything.

[STRAT]

,lows of late nov 08 & june 09 in line with 2.50, poo ok, did not think absolute low but has gone below lows in line of mid oct 08 & july 09. Cheers for boost of confidence troyvdhPhaedrus, I have a question.
Karlos drew his trend line as seen in red ignoring the Oct08 low. Is this valid?.

[Phaedrus]

Bought AWE at 2.51, now stressing at 2.31. Can anyone enlighten me? AWE is in an uptrend rather than a trading range Karlos and as Strat points out, your entry (marked with a green dot) was made in the absence of any Buy signals. Technically there was at least some reason for buying the following day when the Close was higher and there was an RSI Buy signal (green arrow), but you should note that this was not confirmed by the other 2 oscillators shown here.

OK, so you made an ill-advised entry, but that is really only half the story. Having bought just above a well-confirmed trendline, you failed to sell when that trendline was broken and thus the main reason for your entry no longer applied.

You should have sold at $2.42 when the trendline was broken. Even a Trailing Stop (a slow, inferior exit system) would have you out of AWE by now.

You obviously don't use Stop Losses either. Why not? You have provided an excellent example of why they are needed. They are to limit your losses when/if you make a bad entry - as we all do from time to time. A Stop Loss is generally set just below recent support and as such would have got you out of AWE before your losses escalated.

While you are down, Karlos, let me kick you with this. If AWE continues its current downtrend, you will be going with it, stressing and weeping into your beer all the way down. So you should. You bought in the absence of any Buy signals. You had no Stop Loss in place. Oscillators are not going to trigger Sell signals (they already have, weeks ago). You failed to notice (or ignored) the trendline break. You never even had a lousy Trailing Stop set up.

With an ill-advised entry and no exit strategy whatsoever, you were an accident looking for a place to happen!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/AWE822.gif

[Phaedrus]

Karlos drew his trend line as seen in red ignoring the Oct08 low. Is this valid?No, it's not. The October Low is a major pivot point and trendlines should be drawn from there.

[STRAT]

No, it's not. The October Low is a major pivot point and trendlines should be drawn from there.Thanks Phaedrus, That is what I had assumed.

and thanks Karlos for sharing your trade. I have learned a thing or two

[karlos]

(Friday night I was pretty hammered) I appreciate time spent on replies guys and they are taken note of and well respected, regards Karlos

[karlos]

Didnt use stop loss because was not a speculative stock, RSI & stoch at lows, appeared alot of buyers at 2.50 then days later at 2.45 and 2.40 which reinforced the lines from lows of which I felt the stock would bounce(lines from lows).Finishing lows of days appeared to be loosing momentum.Noted moving averages still downtrending but as above.Plan to sell when RSI &stoc are back at highs. Folks lets keep the fingers crossed its well above 2.51, Karlos

[karlos]

Didnt use stop loss because was not a speculative stock, RSI & stoch at lows, appeared alot of buyers at 2.50 then days later at 2.45 and 2.40 which reinforced the lines from lows of which I felt the stock would bounce(lines from lows).Finishing lows of days appeared to be loosing momentum.Noted moving averages still downtrending but as above.Plan to sell when RSI &stoc are back at highs. Folks lets keep the fingers crossed its well above 2.51, Karlos

[winner69]

Karlos ... all OK today .... maybe swap the beer for champagne

[karlos]

Cheers W69, CROSSED FINGERS worked.Might just keep this cunning plan safely locked away.

[karlos]

Nah, sod it.Cant leave a trading technique this good locked away.Should the need arise, any Sharetraders are welcome to use it. Karlos.