WAM Chart

[Phaedrus]

Waste Management is yet another good stock that gets next to no mention on this forum. It seems to me that junk stocks attract the most interest here. I have often considered the possibility of creating a new technical indicator, the ShareTrader Index, STI. The STI would track the number of posts for any given stock. This would have a negative correlation with the stocks probability of gain, so the idea would be to favour stocks with a low STI. Could be good!

Anyway, this is a chart of WAM showing just how neat, clean and tidy uptrends can be. This uptrend has run for 19 months so far and is so steady that the trailing stop can be quite a low value - 6% in this case. A trailing stop for more volatile stocks might need to be 20% or even higher to avoid being flicked out by price troughs during the uptrend. I am monitoring this uptrend with a 100 day simple moving average and a trendline. Current price action is well clear of these, as you can see. WAM gave a whole slew of buy signals over the 6 months between November 2002 and April 2003.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WAM001.gif

[ratkin]

Wht happened in may 2003? surely the trailing stop would of been hit

[Stock Man]

Hmmmmm the STI - I like it. Infact, I actually think I implement the STI in my own way. The reason I probably dont contribute as much as I used to is because I keep away from most of the stocks discussed on forums....but Phaedrus - everyone to their own.

Ratkin, stocks often come back and retest their breakout point. Often, they dip below the breakout point, just to get rid of some of the weaker traders. Some traders actually wait for the pullback before jumping in. Luckily, in this instance, WAM provided this opportunity.

The initial buy point would have been on the 14/4/03, at $3.12+. To give the trade time to develop, the initial stop may have been a certain percentage below the buy price, or even below the minor low at $2.93ish - this is an accecptable amount of risk imo. After the trade has developed as Phaedrus has shown, tighten all stops....

The more I think about it, the more it is an art.....

[dinosaur]

Yes, WAM is one of my little gems, brought at 3.38 just before it broke out. Pays a nice dividend too, based on that purchase price. I guess Rubbish is not a glamorous topic.

BTW. Just signed up for WAM's general waste collection service. Old fortnightly service, Company X, $12 per collection for a 200 litre drum. WAM fortnightly collection just under $5 (GSTincl)for a 240 litre wheelie bin. Didn't mind paying for a years service in advance with that saving.

[Phaedrus]

Ratkin, Let's look at what we knew in May 2003. We knew that WAM was in an uptrend - it was making higher highs and higher lows. Linking these reaction lows, we had a confirmed trendline in place. (This is the light green trendline). We had bought, and the trade was looking safe but not spectacular. Now, after about 5 months, the [u]uptrend steepened markedly</u>, though of course this was not obvious until the end of May, by which time we could draw a new tentative trendline. When an uptrend accelerates like this, it is only sensible to alter the parameters you are using to monitor the trend. If you do not, your indicators get left behind and become irrelevant and increasingly useless as the stock price action moves further and further away from them. So, we need a new, steeper trendline, we can move to a shorter period moving average, and we can tighten out trailing stop. If we used the initial uptrend as a basis for setting the trailing stop value, we would use 8%. If we wanted to, we could continue to use that figure, but sooner or later it would become obvious, even to you, that 8% was too conservative, and we should tighten the stop to bring it a little closer to the price action of the steeper uptrend. A new value of 6% cuts just under the lows of early September, so this can be used as a new tentative trailing stop. A trailing stop of this value is confirmed in November and again in April.
Ratkin, if you still don't understand the basic principles involved here, say so and I will try to clarify further. Often things like this sound more complicated than they really are, and are more easily understood when illustrated by a suitable chart.
Stockman, I see TA as a science rather than an art. The principles are simple, the rules and definitions quite clear, and there is precious little room for self expression! Most differences of opinion can be sheeted home to users having different aims, objectives and timeframes.

[Stock Man]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus
Stockman, I see TA as a science rather than an art. The principles are simple, the rules and definitions quite clear, and there is precious little room for self expression! Most differences of opinion can be sheeted home to users having different aims, objectives and timeframes.



thx Phaedrus - point taken.

[Placebo]

Interesting discussion. Yes some success stories do tend to get overlooked here. One pointed out last week that was diving beneath the radar was Port of Tauranga. WAM is another.

I'm happy to be a holder but my holding is v small. Clearly money in trash and their interests are also in such things as landfill management and recycling, also earning carbon credits for capturing landfill gas, using it to generate electricity and feeding into national grid.

As well as being a sound, well-managed company in NZ they have done what many have tried and failed -- successfully moved into Australia, and they are a good corporate citizen to boot. Warm fuzzies all round.

[ratkin]

So, the 6% trailing stop was added in hindsight. Just as i suspected.

[Liberty]

What, Rat-fink, can you tell in advance what % trailing stop to apply to a particular trend?

Can you tell me how exactly you do that????

For I sure as hell have trouble predicting the future.

[Risk]

whether TA is art or science is open to debate.
personally I think its definetely an Art.

you must treat each chart differently. there are no hard and fast rules that apply in all occasions. In hindsight, most trends look obvious, but real time trading is very much open to interpretation.

to steal a quote from http://www.stockcharts.com/education/Overview/techAnalysis2.html :

"Open to Interpretation: Furthering the bias argument is the fact that technical analysis is open to interpretation. Even though there are standards, many times two technicians will look at the same chart and paint two different scenarios or see different patterns. Both will be able to come up with logical support and resistance levels as well as key breaks to justify their position. While this can be frustrating, it should be pointed out that technical analysis is more like an art than a science, somewhat like economics. Is the cup half-empty or half-full? It is in the eye of the beholder."

[bull....]

T/A is an Art which can unfortunately only be mastered by a few as goes most pursuits in life.

[Phaedrus]

Ratkin,
I bought WAM at the trendline break and doubled up on the breakout above resistance in April. My plan was to monitor the uptrend using an arbitrary 150 day simple moving average, the trendline charted here, and an 8% trailing stop. I chose 8% because it gave a stop just below the February low. I was particularly confident of the confirmed trendline. From about April on, however, it became increasingly obvious that the uptrend had accelerated. Prices were moving further and further away from my initial trendline to the point that it became useless - WAM would have to drop a dollar to break it before signaling an exit. By May it was possible to draw a new, steeper tentative trendline, which was confirmed in November. Because of the marked change in trend, I was also able to shorten the 150 day sma to 100 days, and tighten my trailing stop to 6%. I could have continued using the 8% trailing stop, but price action was slowly drawing away from it - tightening this to 6% would keep it closer to the action, thus giving less back to the market before it was hit.
It takes time for a trend to settle down, and until it does, it pays to keep your indicators fairly conservative to avoid being prematurely flicked out. It took a while to get the trendline, moving average and trailing stop set up as they are now, but using the current parameters this WAM uptrend is now quite tightly and accurately monitored. I will know when to sell. Will you?

Ratkin, I know only too well that I am wasting my time replying to you in such detail, but I wouldn't want anyone to think that you had raised a valid criticism.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WAM2001.gif

[rosey]

it could also be a skill that is practised then mastered through lifes experiences of buying and selling shares

[bull....]

Correct Rosey you must practice a lot if you are to suceed and hopefully master the game.

[Liberty]

A much more diplomatic answer than mine, Phaedrus - I get very annoyed when people with little or no knowledge of charts throw around accusations of curve fitting.

[rosey]

phaedrus
please dont think your wasting time replying as there could be others not as experienced and i for one learn a huge amount from you
thanks again and keep up the good work

[Benlamnz]

yeah Phaedrus I am a big fan of your charts too. your insight commentaries, in particular, are so valuable and can never be equalled with softwares like Metastock.

[Jay]

Agree Rosey.
I to are learning a lot from Phaedrus.

I have missed this one twice now, computer breaking once didn't help :(

[Phaedrus]

TA is art? Nah. Only if you think "paint by numbers" is art! Anyone can learn to use it - it is not some arcane pursuit that only an elite few can master. Surely you are aware of the "Turtle" story?

In mid-1983 famous trader Richard Dennis was having an ongoing dispute with his long-time friend Bill Eckhardt about whether great traders were born or made. Richard believed that he could teach anybody to become a great trader. Bill thought otherwise. In order to settle the matter, Richard suggested that they recruit and train some traders and give them actual accounts to trade to see which one of them was correct. They took out ads for positions for trading apprentices in Barron’s, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times. The group went to Chicago and trained for two weeks at the end of December, 1983. They began trading at the beginning of January. The students were called Turtles and they became the most famous experiment in trading history because over the next four years, they earned an average annual compound rate of return of 80%.
Richard Dennis proved that with a set of technical rules covering simple trend-following techniques he could take people with little or no trading experience and make them excellent traders.

[ratkin]

It obviously was a valid point i raised as it has caused you to change the chart so that it didnt flip you out of the trade in May 2003.

This is the main problem i have with charting, its easy to change the criteria after the event.
If the price had continued falling in may 2003 then you would not have been drawing attention to the chart now as it would of been just another trend that dailed to follow through.

What this means is that the only charts we tend to see are the ones which conform to all the pretty patterns giving a biased skew of the power of charts.
Most books do the same thing, we see many nice pictures of charts with make all the TA tools look wonderful.

Just for balance it would make a nice change if people showed charts where it went wrong and they lost money.
Unlikely however as im sure people would not be so keen to come on here saying i bought x amount in april and lost x amount by may

[ratkin]

Im off to betfair.com now to do some real trading.

[Phaedrus]

Ratkin, you are a hopeless case. I didn't change the chart. That was a specially simplified version just for you.
Do you honestly think that, having bought on a breakout above resistance at 315, [u]anyone</u> would have been "flipped" out of the trade by the price hitting a low of 312 a few days later? When this made a higher low? After a higher high? (that's an uptrend) When a stop-loss set just below the previous low (the usual place) had not been hit? When price action was well above the trendline in use at that time?
You are an idiot. Stick to horse-trading.

[Phaedrus]

Gentle readers, you may wonder at Ratkin's obdurate criticism and my intemperate response. We are old adversaries. He has never forgiven me for outing him on ShareChat by exposing the multiple identities he created (10 at last count!!!!!) to afford himself some numerical support in his dogged anti-TA stance. ("I'd have to agree with Nick ......")
Here's a fascinating thing though. After leaving ShareChat, he then popped up on an Australian board as Lippy, a TA guru!!!!!!! Running a regular feature called "Let's Talk Stock" - posting charts, no less!
It's a funny old world.

[Risk]

Phaedrus,

I accept you see TA as a science, but I am not alone in thinking that it is mostly Art. Just do a google search on "Technical Analysis art or science".

I suppose to a large extent it is a matter of definition. to me science is much more predictable than art. If you drop a stone from a certain height, it will always reach the ground after a certain time...if you mix 2 chemicals in a certain manner you will always end up with the same result. One and one always equals two.

when Traders use TA, probailities come into it much more...results cannot always be duplicated like we can in scientific experiments.
Not all your trades are winning ones, bacause Art IS involved.

If you take great Technical Analysts like Darryl Guppy and others, they do not always agree on a chart, even if looking at the same timeframe etc.
Some great chartists are bullish and some are bearish.
results differ because all charts are open to interpretation...not all indicators always agree, not all trendlines are indisputable, the Art is in knowing what is significant in each situation.

Your Tuttle story is just one case...Not everyone can be taught to trade succesfully...many great traders end up broke.

If trading could be reduced to some exact rules that work most of the time, then it would be easy to create a black box computer trading system. But I know you are aware that no such system exists. the human factor must be present because we need to apply the art of judgement to each case.

Perhaps you have become so proficient at TA, that to you its a science. Or perhaps the Art side of it is just so automatic to you that you dont even notice it...but I am far from that level.

The markets are always changing, and it has an uncanny habit of proving people wrong.

[Bundy]

I really like WAM.

Having sold all my crappy stocks like ITC, RMG, SMR, (don't ask!!!), I wanted a stock that was the complete opposite.

I paid $3.20, back in 2002 just before they went below $3.00.

In disgust, they went in the bottom draw, and I have been pocketing the dividend since...

However the rise has been strong (and very steady, as shown in those graphs).

How high can it go ?

Their figures are good, and they are always expanding...

Can't help but smile when I'm stuck behind one of their trucks on the Motorway [8D]

[Stock Man]

Over the past week WAM has been coming off a good run. Will be interesting to see if it confirms the LT trendline established. This would provide a buying opp imo.

[Placebo]

Another one that continues to grow nicely. Has now passed safely through the $5 barrier and continuing northwards.

A good wee company this one with sound management and good growth potential. Unlike many NZ companies, they have successfully entered Australian market and are gradually expanding their operations (successfully) there.

[Phaedrus]

WAM's linear uptrend continues, with no sign of any technical weakness. Nevertheless, even with stocks this good, you still need to have an exit strategy in place. The chart below shows 3 possible methods of achieving this - prices falling below any of the 3 indicators shown would give an objective indication that the uptrend had weakened. The indicators here are :-
(1) A confirmed trendline
(2) A 100 day Simple Moving Average
(3) An ATR based Trailing Stop. ATR (Average True Range) is simply the average daily volatility of the stock in question. The trailing stop is plotted below the price, at seven times the ATR in this instance. Short-term traders would use a lower multiple, conservative long-term investors would use a higher multiple. Stops are never lowered - they keep on ratcheting up as the price rises, thus protecting profits.

In Dr. Van K. Tharp's excellent book, 'Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom' he refers to a study he conducted to demonstrate that an effective exit strategy could produce profits even with completely random entries. Tharp used a 3x ATR based stop combined with a simple 1% risk money management system. The hit-rate (trade success) reliability was only 38%, but overall, the system was profitable.

Running 3 totally different indicators as shown here pretty much guarantees that they will not trigger at the same time. This probability should be anticipated and planned for. Possible approaches would include :-
(1) Sell all your holding when the first indicator triggers - whichever it is. This would be a good approach if you considered the stock to be fundamentally overvalued.
(2) Sell all your holding only when all 3 indicators have triggered. This would be a good approach if you considered the stock to be fundamentally undervalued.
(3) Sell one third of your holding as each indicator is triggered. This approach gives some measure of protection from "Seller's remorse"!

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WAM3001.gif

[Stock Man]

Good to see you back Phaedrus. I have Van Tharps (excellent) book also. Strategies like the one mentioned can only work if emotion is removed i.e. when a sell signal is generated - you sell. From what I have seen here though, far to many ppl here are emotionally involved....[:0]

Thanks for the chart. Incidentally, why do you think such a flawed technique - the simple MA, works so well[?]:)

Rgds

[Phaedrus]

Nice to be back. The longer I am out of NZ, the better it looks on my return.

SM, we both agree that moving averages can work well, but I am a bit puzzled as to why you describe them as a "flawed technique".
Moving averages are trend following devices so by their very nature they must lag the market. I see this as a characteristic rather than a flaw. They are simply a smoothing device, a curved trendline.
Some people feel that a simple moving average is not as good as an exponential moving average because equal weight is given to each days price. I do not feel this to be a disadvantage at all, though I do suspect that exponential moving averages are the more widely used.
What flaw(s) are you are referring to here?

[Stock Man]

Phaedrus, I was actually referring to the SMA mathematical equation when applied to the Stockmarket.

I have read some interesting texts recently regarding indicators that signal twice, based on the same data.

Popular oscillators that signal twice include; Stochastic, ROC, Momentum, and MA’s. The simple MA being the main culprit as equal weighting is given to all data.

The EMA appears to be a better mathematical solution, but there is no proof that it is more reliable than the SMA. (I know I’m not telling you anything new)! Infact I almost think the reason that the SMA is so flawed, is probably the reason it works so well……! Who knows.

I have ran some MS tests using Simple MA’s vs Exponential MA’s, and although more often than not the difference is negligible, in the case of ANZ the difference was substantial. My data is biased and my sample is small (3 tests) - NCP, ANZ and the USNZ$.

Test: A basic price MA test. 30 – 500 period MA only and optimised by 10. No other buy/sell criteria.

Timeframe: ANZ and NCP from 1987 to present. USNZ$ from 1996 to present.

Results: are based on percentage return per annum.



What I found:

I will list the first 4 most profitable results (there were over 50 per test). Both EMA/SMA Tests were completed on 30 – 500 period MA only and optimised by 10. Note the SMA always comes out on top.

USNZ$

SMA
1. 100 period SMA – 6.8% pa
2. 110 period SMA – 6.6% pa
3. 130 period SMA – 6.1% pa
4. 140 period SMA – 6% pa

EMA
1. 90 period EMA – 6.6% pa
2. 110 period EMA – 6.4% pa
3. 120 period EMA – 6.1% pa
4. 100 period EMA – 5.9% pa



NCP

SMA
1. 30 period SMA – 80% pa
2. 40 period SMA – 41% pa
3. 80 period SMA – 22.6% pa
4. 390 period SMA – 20.6% pa

EMA
1. 30 period EMA -70% pa
2. 80 period EMA – 17.5% pa
3. 90 period EMA – 11.2% pa
4. 100 period EMA – 10.9% pa



ANZ

SMA
1. 70 period SMA – 15.5% pa
2. 80 period SMA – 9% pa
3. 100 period SMA – 8.6% pa
4. 90 period SMA – 8.5% pa

EMA
1. 90 period EMA – 4.5% pa
2. 470 period EMA – 4.3% pa
3. 480 period EMA – 3.5% pa
4. 80 period EMA – 3.4% pa


Just a couple of interesting tests...:)

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Stock Man

.........Since 1990 a buy and hold strategy with WAM would have returned 57.5% PA. Here are the comparable SMA vs EMA results:



57.5% PA ... I wish

Been pretty good but not that high I feel

Are u sure stockman?

[dinosaur]

Those figures seem about right
I purchased some WAM shares at $3.38 496 days ago.
If I sold today at $5.40 my charts show me that the o/a return would be 69.19% or 50.92%pa. That's taking into account brokerage costs on purchasing and selling and includes returns from gross dividends. (so I can compare the returns against other published rates of returns from Banks etc)

[Lawso]

Good effort, dino. That was a good buy @ 338 in mid-'03. With another 10c rise so far today to 550 your figures will be looking even better.

I've been in and out of WAM since early '00. Currently showing a capital gain of 55% excl. divs. Very comfortable with WAM.

[Stock Man]

Guys - I'm really sorry - my testing was flawed and I realise I did indeed run a bad test. Thx to those who pointed this out to me.

Rather than cause confusion, I have deleted my 2 posts re WAM results.



rgds

[Phaedrus]

SM,
It is not quite right to call Simple moving averages a "flawed technique" because they "signal twice, based on the same data". What I think you mean is that SMA's are affected twice by the same data - once when it goes on and again when it comes off. This is only noticeable when very short period SMA's are used on very volatile data. They only signal once, though. Exponential moving averages are only affected when new data goes on. They are much more sensitive to new data, but because of the reduced weighting, data dropping off has little or no effect. I prefer SMA's because they are smoother and less reactive than EMA's.
An interesting note - while SMA's are usually more profitable than EMA's, a combination system that buys on an SMA crossover and Sells on an EMA crossover is generally more profitable than either used alone.
I make WAM's average annual share price increase over the last 10 years or so to be just under 16%pa. It hasn't really been a great long-term "Buy and Hold" candidate - at one stage it was in an extended trading range for 6 years, making no capital gain at all over this period. Going well now though.

[rmbbrave]

Does anyone know anything about sunshine bag?

Was WAM's move in aquiring it a good one?

This from the herald...

Waste Management combines with Sunshine Bag

04.11.2004


Waste Management has bought the green waste and garden bag collection business of the Sunshine Bag Company for $2 million.

Waste Management said the combined companies would serve more than 50,000 households across the Auckland region.

[dinosaur]

One of my neigbours has a Sunshine Bag, Another has a Green Fingers bin and I have a WM green bin.
That's 3 trucks covering the same street picking up green waste. It makes sense to combine some of these services, as I presume the collection is the most expensive part of the service.

BTW The WM truck is automated, just needing a driver and the bin is picked up and emptied in seconds, while the other two services are manual and have a driver and a helper and can take up to 3 or 4 minutes to pick up the bag or bin. So plenty of room for WM to make Sunshine more efficient. Possibly replacing the bag with a bin maybe???.
Probably explains way WM is cheaper than the other services.

[rmbbrave]

Thank very much Dinosaur, very informative.

[Lawso]

We/ve used Sunshine for several years. Costs $12.50 for the monthly collection of a large sackful of garden waste. Service is OK but I don't see how they could integrate/rationalise a green bin and a big bag service. It's a tiddler business, which is reflected in the $2m buy price. Certainly not sufficient in itself to account for today's 9c lift to 555, which must be close to WAM's all-time high. The price is reflecting the market's confidence in a well managed go-ahead company, IMO.

[Lawso]

I'm starting to do a flip on WAM and am wondering whether others with better analytical skills than mine are sharing my view that WAM is looking fully priced. The s p has gone nowhere since early October and I'm wondering whether it's time to exit or reduce (Yes, this is the champion Buy & Holder talking!)

The coy is forecasting a net surplus to Dec. '04 of $24m which will be up 30% on '03.The interim div was raised from 7.5c last year to 9.9c but I calculate the current net div yield to be only 3.3% (net 5% pa on my investment) and the p/e ratio is reported to be an uncomfortably high 23.9:1.

WAM has treated me well since I first bought in early 2000 @ 330 (I kept on buying through the '01-03 slump) and am now showing capital growth of 55%. But I have to wonder whether the price is about to stall or even go into reverse.

Phaedrus has been bullish about WAM with his chart showing a clear and steady uptrend since late 2002. May I ask what it's showing now, Phaedrus?

Anyone who compares this with my previous post will note that a week is a long time in investing, just as the weak are a long time in politics ;)

[limegreen]

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/wam11nov04.gif

In my (inexpert) opinion, to break it's current uptrend it would have to go through around 5.25, and any conservative moving average is going to be lower than that. I also note, looking at the chart, that WAM has been through longer sideways phases in the last two years than it's current one (red lines). Thus, for a buy & hold investor, from a technical point of view, it doesn't yet seem like a sell. The OBV still appears to be in an uptrend as well.

DISC: Have been considering buying.

[Phaedrus]

Lawso,
I thought that you funny mental @nalysts were patient folk and in for the long haul! Uptrends simply do not come any cleaner or more regular than this - there is not the slightest hint of any weakness here. Pull yourself together man.
To help you see WAM for what it is, I have assembled here no less than 6 trend indicators of different types. You can see that none of them are within a bull's roar of triggering a Sell signal.
You seem overly worried with regard to this stock. Are you perhaps trying to sell at the top? Lower your expectations, accept yourself as a fallible human being and sell when the uptrend ends like all decent trend-followers. You are doing well with this stock. Relax and enjoy the ride. Are you an eldest child by any chance?
Here's an interesting thing - over on the "Investment Strategies" forum, I am having the same argument with fundamentalists wanting to sell their MHI! What's with you people - don't you know a good stock when you see it?
Regards,
Phaedrus.
http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/WAM3001.gif

[Lawso]

Many thanks, limegreen and Phaedrus. I guess it's reading all that Exit Strategy stuff, and getting accused of "falling in love" with certain stocks, that made me jumpy, together with WAM's high PE and lowish yield. Guess I'll go on holding.

[limegreen]

If you want lower PE and a wicked uptrend, join the FBU bus (or are you already on?). And while high PE can mean overpriced, it can also mean that it has been doing brilliantly, and is expected to continue doing so.

DISC: FBU

[Lawso]

I'm on it thanks, limegreen, and enjoying the ride. Also enjoyed the meeting on Tuesday. Some good people to talk to - and TOP TUCKER by the Sheraton.
On your second point, I agree that a high PE can reflect how highly the market rates the stock. There are others though who would shy away from anything with a PE over, say, 20, or even 15.

[Placebo]

For those who like boring stocks this one probably takes the cake, but I love it... now approaching another milestone ($6) and still heading relentlessly northwards.

Notwithstanding a recommendation downgrade from my broker, have recently increased my holding in one of the best (in terms of capital gain) in my portfolio.

[Lawso]

I'm still feeling v happy with my WAM holding and v grateful to Phaedrus and limegreen for settling me down last year when I began to get twitchy about WAM possibly being overpriced (see above).
Agree $6 is not far away. What an idiot broker to suggest Placebo should reduce. ABN Amro & Goldman SachsJBW include WAM in their five stock picks for 2005, as published in the NZHerald.

[rmbbrave]

When (not if) WAM hits 6.24 I will have doubled the money I put in in June 02. I bought more at 4.95, 5.41, 5.57 and 5.82. WAM has been a great stock.

[limegreen]

no worries lawso. I only wish I had had some spare cash to throw in when I wanted to.

[Placebo]

Just to clarify lawso, they didn't advise me to sell, the brokerage firm downgraded its recommendation from "buy" to "hold".

This is the same firm that has only just recently (last month or two) downgraded WHS from a buy. Needless to say, I take their recommendations with a healthy dose of salt.

[Lawso]

WAM up 12 to 604 :)
Also CEN + 15, WPT +15, CAV +7, AIA +6, NPX +5.
Happy Days Are Here Again!

[Lawso]

quote: Just to clarify lawso, they didn't advise me to sell, the brokerage firm downgraded its recommendation from "buy" to "hold".
They're still idiots IMO. Everyone knows brokers rarely say "Sell" because they don't want to get offside with the company. "Hold" means they don't like the stock - probably a good reason for us to buy. For years Forbar had a Sell, then a Hold, on FBU at a time when Waters was starting to turn the company around and the price was climbing.

[OldRider]

LAWSO:The companies you commented on above showing
price growth today interested me.

I prepared a chart comparing growth in equity, price, & earnings for a number of NZ companies recently.The filter was for price growth to be less than earnings growth. The time period is not the same for all companies, but is near 5 years for most. Don't trust my figures,I don't guarantee them, do your own. The best were:

COMPANY-----EQUITY-----PRICE-----EARNINGS(cpc)
AIA---------5.65%------26.59%-----42.65%
CHP---------4.34%----*-2.64%------9.18%
CAV-------*-2.67%------4.93%------21.32%
CEN---------19.17%-----20.7%------22.66%
IFT---------71.2%------21.49------56.63
NPX---------8.35%------14.29%-----22.37%

Corelates rather well with the companies you noticed,

[Lawso]

Thanks OR. Very interesting. Have to confess I'm not quite clear what "growth in equity" means.
Is that the same as market capitalisation, something to do with the no. of shares on issue, assets v. liabilities, or what?
Pardon my ignorance.

[OldRider]

Lawso: Equity is net assets-- total assets less total liablities, can be called equity or net assets in the annual accounts.

I did use earnings per share not total earnings (typo as cpc above)in my comparison, I look to hold firstly coys as AIA & NPX as above where earnings growth is outstripping equity growth.

OMP on ASX has been a good hold for me, but they are regularly issuing new shares in small mergers,so that now although earnings growth is good equity is increasing faster, so to me it's probably hinting time to move elsewhere.

[Lawso]

Net assets - thanks OR. That's a term I understand.

[Placebo]

Lawso: Yes I agree re Forbar, they are the firm I deal with. It is useful to have access to their research but they do some odd things. E.g. they announced a recommendation downgrade for WAM because they thought some councils might (note: MIGHT) put price controls in place, so they were identifying a risk (fair enough, though it was a theoretical risk); meanwhile they were continuing to tout WHS as a buy despite its price plummeting, market confidence disintegrating, and an ever-lengthening string of bad news announcements from the company.

As you say, they don't want to get off companies freebie lists :D but sometimes you'd like to think cold hard reality would intrude on their analyses.

Just goes to show, it pays to eke your information out of a wide range of sources.

[Lawso]

Wellsaid. I read several brokers' newsletters etc but take them all with a salty scepticism.

[rmbbrave]

This appeared in the herald today.

"Waste Management pushed up 8c to 604 as takeover speculation continues to surround that stock and Auckland Airport put on 19c to a new high of 864 as stake-building talk increased. Macquarie Airport and Macquarie Infrastructure Group are names bandied about."

WAM is one of the boring companies that keeps going up but sharetraders never talk about, others are Ryman and MFT, all of which I hold.

This is the first I have heard about "takeover speculation". Does anyone know anything more about this?

[Lawso]

I'm still waiting/hoping to hear something. So far a complete blank. Don't even know who's doing the "speculating" apart from some bored journo.

[winner69]

was a story a few weeks ago that the waste industry in Europe was undergoing a lot of consolidation and because of that some of these company's operations/investments in Australia might be sold off ... small investments in the big picture of things and better they bed done their rationalisations in Europe etc

WAM was touted as an ideal purchaser of some of these operations because of their size and overall fit with their ops in Australia

made a lot of sense and could be why there is some interest of late

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

When (not if) WAM hits 6.24 I will have doubled the money I put in in June 02. I bought more at 4.95, 5.41, 5.57 and 5.82. WAM has been a great stock.


After releasing a great full year report WAM's SP has hit 6.40 and I have doubled my initial investment in under 3 years.

Here it is in all it's glory.

16 Feb 2005 09:33
FLLYR: WAM: FY to 31/12/04

Name of Listed Issuer: Waste Management N.Z. Ltd
For Full Year Ended: 31 December 2004
This report has been prepared in a manner which complies with generally
accepted accounting practice and gives a true and fair view of the matters to
which the report relates and is based on unaudited accounts.

CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT
Current Full Year NZ$''000 25,609; Up 38.4%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 18,509

Total operating revenue:
Current Full Year NZ$''000 213,355; Up 17.3%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 181,923

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE UNUSUAL ITEMS AND TAX:
Current Full Year NZ$''000 42,680; Up 35.6%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 31,484

Unusual items for separate disclosure: Nil.

OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX:
Current Full Year NZ$''000 42,680; Up 35.6%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 31,484

Less tax on operating profit:
Current Full Year NZ$''000 17,071; Up 31.6%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 12,975

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX BUT BEFORE MINORITY INTERESTS
Current Full Year NZ$''000 25,609; Up 38.4%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 18,509

Less minority interests: Nil

Equity earnings: NZ$''000 512, Up 23.4% from NZ$''000 415 (included in
Operating Revenue above).

OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER:
Current Full Year NZ$''000 25,609, Up 38.4%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 18,509.

Extraordinary items after tax attributable to Members of the Listed Issuer:
Nil

OPERATING SURPLUS AND EXTRAORDINARY ITEMS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS
OF THE LISTED ISSUER:
Current Full Year NZ$''000 25,609 Up 38.4%;
Previous Corresponding Full Year NZ$''000 18,509.

Earnings per share: Current Full Year 25.8 cps; Previous Corresponding Full
Year 18.8 cps.

Final Dividend: 16.7 cps
Record Date: 11 March 2005
Date Payable: 18 March 2005
Imputation tax credit on latest dividend: 8.2254 cps
Short details of any bonus or rights issue or other item(s) of importance not
previously released to the market: Nil

Summary of commentary:

On behalf of the Board, I am pleased to report an excellent year. Sales broke
through the $200 million mark for the first time and the net surplus of $25.6
million was up 38 percent on last year, further increasing the compounding
growth rate of more than 20 percent that we have sustained since listing in
1987.

The group achieved a 17.3% increase in revenue, 25.4% in EBITDA and 33.6% in
EBIT for the year and increased operating cash flows by $8.2 million to $52.6
million. Debt levels increased $18.3 million to $72.1 million but with a
gearing ratio of 27.6% the balance sheet is still in a strong position to
fund growth as required.

On target in Australia

In Australia, we continued to focus on strategic acquisitions, consolidating
our current business and executing the significant initiatives begun last
year. Our Australian management team will continue to strengthen as our
business in Australia grows.

In Adelaide, we exercised our option to build a landfill, and opened the new
landfill and transfer station on 1 January 2005, on time, at a cost of $17.3
million. This is very satisfying given the pressures we were under. The
timeframe from option take-up to opening was just ten months.

There''s no doubt that Australia holds the greatest growth potential for us
overall. The signs so far are in line with th

[Placebo]

quote:Investors have much to smile about from our performance this year.

:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

[Lawso]

The tone of the chairman's and management remarks at today's annual meeting might best be described as quietly confident. These are not blowhards. Chairman Jim Syme said some slowdown in the second half of the year was possible but overall they could look forward to "another year of healthy growth". Expect the 2004 div of 26.6c to be steady, at worst, in 2005 (my guess, not his).

Pretty bullish about Australia, which is expected to provide 25% of earnings within two years. WAM seems to be handling this expansion, most notably in the Adelaide region, with care and skill. CEO Kim Ellis goes over there twice a month and they seem also to have some very capable Oz-based management.

S p down 1c today but WAM is one of the better NZ companies which will not be badly hurt in the current market climate. IMO.
* * *

[limegreen]

I recently bought on a dip, which turned out to be a dip before the next dip, but I'm reasonably confident that there should be support at $6.

[rmbbrave]

Positive story about WAM appears in the Herald.

Where there's muck, there's money

Kim Ellis

20.04.05
By GEORGINA BOND


Waste Management is still finding brass in the muck, the company's annual meeting heard in Auckland yesterday.

Chairman Jim Syme told a gathering of 200 at the Ellerslie Convention Centre the rubbish collection and landfill company was heading towards another healthy increase in earnings this year.

"For the first quarter to March 2005, all our divisions have performed well, which we expected, as last year's market conditions and steady business momentum continued," he said.

"Our expectation is that despite some possible slowing of business in the second half of the year, we should have another healthy increase in earnings this year."

The company was gathering steam in Adelaide where its newest landfill had been operating for four months. It was pursuing opportunities that would build on solid bases on either side of the Tasman.

Waste Management's full-year net profits to December rose from $18.5 million to $25.6 million.

Chief executive Kim Ellis said the Australian operations were on track to contribute 25 per cent of operating profit by the end of next year.

[limegreen]

WAM is starting to show some signs of technical weakness. It is through the 100 day moving average, and a fairly obvious level of support/resistance at $6 (not clearly obvious at this resolution). It's a bit hard to judge on this, but it would appear that it is very close to testing the uptrend as well (perhaps about $5.80?? from a bigger chart).
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/wam27april05.gif

[Lawso]

Interesting chart, limegreen. Thanks. I notice WAM is down another 2c today to 294 in a flattish market. It's fallen by about 12% since the peak but that compares fairly well with other blue chips like FBU -19%, STU -23%, NPX -38% etc.

Due to a) the nature of the business ["where there's muck there's brass"), b) growth prospects through controlled expansion into Oz and c) quality of management, NPX will survive the current correction better than most. No way would I sell.

[limegreen]

I really mis-timed my purchase, but will look to get back in when the price turns around, and I assume it will.

[Lizard]

Keep falling WAM! I really want to buy this stock...but CHEAPER...:D

[Placebo]

This boring little stock has bounced back nicely from April-May, when of course everyone seemed to suffer, this was no different.

Interesting move today (if I'm reading it right), Fisher Funds has sold down the NZ Super Fund's holding in WAM from 9-odd percent to 8-odd percent. Profit-taking perhaps? (didn't know the Cullen fund was into such shenanigans...). Anyway, doesn't seem to have done the SP any harm, up another 6c today.

[rmbbrave]

Waste Management stalks big Australian


19.08.05


By Georgina Bond


Waste Management is eying one of Australia's largest waste management networks in its bid to expand across the Tasman.

WSN Environmental Solutions, owned and valued by the New South Wales government at A$250 million ($271 million), is expected to be privatised this year. When it does, this country's largest waste collection and landfill company will be a bidder.

WSN owns and operates 10 waste recycling, processing and disposal facilities in NSW.

Chief executive Kim Ellis said its sale had been pushed high up the agenda by the state's new premier, Morris Iemma, but it had been tight-lipped on the timing.

Speculation was it would be anywhere from six months to a year.

"There are a lot of regulatory issues around it because it's a semi-monopoly, and every man and his dog is looking at it. So it's really watch this space at the moment."

Ellis is keen to grow the business in the Australian market, which it entered four years ago and which now provides 20 per cent of the company's income.

It has made about 15 small to medium-sized acquisitions in Brisbane, Melbourne, Queensland and Albury in New South Wales. Opening a $40 million landfill and transfer station at Inkerman, 85km south of Adelaide, has been its biggest opportunity so far.

Total investment in Australia is about A$80 million.

Breaking out from its modest position across the Tasman was now one of the company's challenges, Ellis said last week when reporting a half-year net profit of $14.8 million - $2.1 million up on last year. The company also forecast a rise in its annual profit to about $30 million.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by rmbbrave

There seem to have been a serious outbreak of temporary insanity.

WAM is down 6.5% in the last 2 days. The trader in me says sell now but the Fundie in me says think about buying more.

At the moment the Fundie is winning.

The dividend was 16.7 in March and will be 15 in September. (16.7+15)/6.36 = 5% and this company is growing.

Sell you bozos sell! See if I care.


...And buy more I did at 6.35 and 6.43.

The SP is now back to pre-result levels only 10cents away from a new record high.

[K9]

How's the summer treating u brave?

seems like a few good chunky buys today...institutional

$300-$350k

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by K9

How's the summer treating u brave?

seems like a few good chunky buys today...institutional

$300-$350k


Hot as hell on a hot day!

Same as always.

Plus I keep getting asked to work which is a bummer as I'd much rather sit at home drinking Yebisu, watching my shares go up and listening to the cricket on the BBC.

I actually told my boss that I reckon I could earn more by looking around the internet for good share buying deals than teaching at $40 an hour and asked him to give me as little work as possible.

[K9]

argh,,,,Yebisu, my fav too.....and my old home

u snob;)

PS the dark is nice too

[Paper Tiger]

$6.15 today, down from $6.78 just over a month ago.

This breaks the last uptrend line you can draw (on a log plot) and I am sure some TA person will start talking bearish double tops.

However this is supposed to be one of the great growth companies, dominant in the field, good management, etc, etc.

The forward P/E must be about 20-21 and the gross dividend yield over 7%. [Assume $30m (+17%)full year as per the half year report and another 15c divvy]

Disc: Looking to top up when it turns.

[scamper]

I'm getting a bad feeling about WAM's chart.
Price has broken down through 90-day MA twice in the last 4 months, after politely tracking above it for the previous two years.
Bollies diverging, RSI feeble, macd negative, approaching a trendline break.

my stop-loss is quite a bit lower than the current price, but my gut is uncomfy...
Would fundies suggest that the story is still good? would the charties suggest that there are sufficient entrails to bail now? comments please.

[scamper]

wot! no TAs or WAMMERS on duty?
scamper's got an itch! help please.

[Phaedrus]

Scamper,
WAM has struck resistance at around $6.80 and is not trending upward as tidily or as steadily as it has in the past. Nevertheless it is still in a long-term uptrend with a confirmed trendline in place. Price action is above this trendline - as it has been for years. Show some self restraint here. Don't scratch that itch until this trendline is broken. Quadrupeds with less patience and fortitude would have quit when price action dropped below the trailing stop or the moving average as charted.
You are a long-term investor - right? Act like one. Pull yourself together, get a new flea collar and do [i/nothing[/i]. Just yet.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WAM99002.gif

[foodee]

Phaedrus
My novice TA eyes see it as a 'double top' and therefore out a weewhile ago. That does not mean I am right but it means I am comfortable.

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by foodee

Phaedrus
My novice TA eyes see it as a 'double top' and therefore out a weewhile ago. That does not mean I am right but it means I am comfortable.


quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
...and I am sure some TA person will start talking bearish double tops.

:)

[Phaedrus]

This may become a double top formation, but it is not one just yet. Price action must fall below the low between the peaks for a DT to be confirmed. That's below $5.63 in this particular case.

[limegreen]

For the double top to complete it needs to go back through the price in the dip (ie, about $5.60). The trendline break would have you well out before then...

[Halebop]

Snap!

I think though Foodee does raise something that many novice TAs such as myself fall foul of (and sometimes benefit from) ...pre-empting the signal.

[foodee]

Thank you all for the correction. Geeze I am a slow learner but I am comfortable.

[Placebo]

Also foodee, the fundamentals haven't changed. There was a sniffle in the last result about the Australian operation perhaps not advancing as quickly as it initially had. This may be a consolidation period. However it continues to perform strongly in NZ and indeed, improved its margins.

No-one likes to see a retracement in the price though, so hopefully this will only be temporary...

[rmbbrave]

GENERAL MANAGER RESOURCE RECOVERY


Release to press and stock exchange, Monday 12 September 2005


Waste Management expands resource recovery services

Waste Management NZ Ltd is creating a new division to meet the needs of an increasing number of commercial customers wanting recycling and resource recovery as a permanent part of their solid waste collection service.

Dave Perkins, general manager of Waste Management's bio-waste recovery business Living Earth Ltd, will manage the new venture reporting to corporate services manager Malcolm Hope.

Managing Director Kim Ellis stated that more and more waste generators are determined to separate waste streams and to maximise the recovery of resources. This is partly driven by increasing disposal costs and partly by the quest for sustainable development. He said that Dave Perkins has had a wealth of experience in handling the challenges of a resource recovery operation while at Living Earth, and will now bring that to bear at Waste Management.

Kim Ellis said that the division will operate under the brand 'Recycle NZ', and will be operational by early 2006. The focus will initially be on developing strong customer and industry relationships, designing new competitively priced products and services, building Waste Management's investment in the recovery sector, and strengthening the brand.

As a result of these developments Living Earth's production and technical manager, George Fietje will take on the role of General Manager effective 1 January 2006.

John Tapper, chairman of Living Earth, said the directors welcomed the new division in Waste Management which would complement Living Earth's resource recovery business. He said they were pleased someone with George's long experience in the composting industry is ready to lead Living Earth forward into the next phase of the bio-waste and growing media business. He said George's understanding of customer requirements will serve the company well.

For further information contact Kim Ellis, MD Waste Management NZ Ltd or John Tapper Chairman, Living Earth Ltd.

[kiwi_on_OE]

I don't know how much money there is to make in recycling, but GRD in Aus seem to be doing ok having a specialist recycling division. On that basis I'm a little disappointed that it has taken WAM so long to get into it. I wonder if they've been ignoring this side of their business or monitoring it closely to jump into it when the timing is right? Haven't they had commercial 'glass-only' bins, and done paper recycling for years?

[Paper Tiger]

Not impressed with the dive at the end of the day to $5.96. Is there something I should know about, apart from this:

quote:from stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3408418a13,00.html)
Rubbish firms fight council levies
13 September 2005
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Three big rubbish collection and recycling companies are set to square off in the High Court at Auckland against four local councils over waste levies the companies believe are illegal.


Waste Management, Envirowaste and Carter Holt Harvey are seeking a judicial review of decisions by Christchurch City Council and three Auckland councils - Waitakere, North Shore and Rodney - to hit commercial operators with waste levies.

The levies were in fact a tax which councils did not have the power to impose, Waste Management managing director Kim Ellis said yesterday. It seemed the councils were looking to set up local tax systems.

"It will mean waste will flow away from those councils. Collectors and generators, who generate large volumes of waste, will do their best to try and avoid dumping it in that area," Mr Ellis said.

This "waste flight" could see rubbish transported for disposal in areas where local councils did not enforce waste levies. The four councils were looking to charge companies for a ratepayer service, Mr Ellis said. There was nothing wrong with raising money to support recycling initiatives but this was the wrong way to do it.

Instead, Mr Ellis proposed a national levy and a central government role, via the Environment Ministry, as in Britain and Australia, which has state levies.

Chris Gilbert, Christchurch City Council's legal services manager, said all four councils had joined together to defend the legal action. The councils were authorised by the 1974 Local Government Act to pass bylaws letting them allocate the costs of implementing waste management plans, Mr Gilbert said.

Christchurch City Council would charge a levy on all waste leaving transfer stations. The size of the levy had not yet been determined but the council planned to use the levy to help fund its waste minimisation plan, which would cost $1 million a year, Mr Gilbert said.

Waste Management has a major landfill operation in Rodney, a joint venture landfill partnership with Christchurch City Council, a waste collection contract with Waitakere and recently lost one with North Shore to Onyx Group.

Mr Ellis said his company had not taken lightly the decision to file court proceedings against the councils. Councils set regulations, raised levies, competed with Waste Management, were its customers and enforced regulations, he said.

"They really have a lot of hats on so people playing in their territory are going to end up in conflict with them," Mr Ellis said.

The companies want the case heard before Christmas.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger

Not impressed with the dive at the end of the day to $5.96. Is there something I should know about, apart from this:

quote:from stuff.co.nz (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3408418a13,00.html)
Rubbish firms fight council levies
13 September 2005
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Three big rubbish collection and recycling companies are set to square off in the High Court at Auckland against four local councils over waste levies the companies believe are illegal.


Waste Management, Envirowaste and Carter Holt Harvey are seeking a judicial review of decisions by Christchurch City Council and three Auckland councils - Waitakere, North Shore and Rodney - to hit commercial operators with waste levies.

The levies were in fact a tax which councils did not have the power to impose, Waste Management managing director Kim Ellis said yesterday. It seemed the councils were looking to set up local tax systems.

"It will mean waste will flow away from those councils. Collectors and generators, who generate large volumes of waste, will do their best to try and avoid dumping it in that area," Mr Ellis said.

This "waste flight" could see rubbish transported for disposal in areas where local councils did not enforce waste levies. The four councils were looking to charge companies for a ratepayer service, Mr Ellis said. There was nothing wrong with raising money to support recycling initiatives but this was the wrong way to do it.

Instead, Mr Ellis proposed a national levy and a central government role, via the Environment Ministry, as in Britain and Australia, which has state levies.

Chris Gilbert, Christchurch City Council's legal services manager, said all four councils had joined together to defend the legal action. The councils were authorised by the 1974 Local Government Act to pass bylaws letting them allocate the costs of implementing waste management plans, Mr Gilbert said.

Christchurch City Council would charge a levy on all waste leaving transfer stations. The size of the levy had not yet been determined but the council planned to use the levy to help fund its waste minimisation plan, which would cost $1 million a year, Mr Gilbert said.

Waste Management has a major landfill operation in Rodney, a joint venture landfill partnership with Christchurch City Council, a waste collection contract with Waitakere and recently lost one with North Shore to Onyx Group.

Mr Ellis said his company had not taken lightly the decision to file court proceedings against the councils. Councils set regulations, raised levies, competed with Waste Management, were its customers and enforced regulations, he said.

"They really have a lot of hats on so people playing in their territory are going to end up in conflict with them," Mr Ellis said.

The companies want the case heard before Christmas.



You can bet that is it PT. Markets always overreact. Good time soon for some short-termers to get in as there seems support in the high 5 dollar range. Ride it back up way past 6 bucks as this share has been several times in the year since I bought.

Might get some myself.

B

[Phaedrus]

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WAM913001.gif

[Paper Tiger]

agreed

[scamper]

If this wobbling downwards continues for a while, i may have used up my pre-emptive-strike luck for the decade. Scamper got out at 614, but plans to return. Clearly, rubbish is a long-term industry.

thinking of which, i wonder why any funeral companies don't go public? got to be a sure bet for a continuing customer base... [:I]

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by scamper

thinking of which, i wonder why any funeral companies don't go public? got to be a sure bet for a continuing customer base... [:I]


There are examples overseas. Probably a very smart demographic play in many countries but the few I've looked at previously have either been poorly run or expensive. I haven't had a proper look for many years though.

Australia had Simplicity Funerals in the 80s, run a by a Kiwi and partically backed by Chase Corporation. They were privatised at some point. At the time it seemed they were better at buying funeral directors than running them.

[Lawso]

Recovery yesterday and today - currently 625. Surely back above Phaedrus's L-TT. Red faces perhaps for those who sold on the dip.

[scamper]

Yeah, scamper's a very silly puppy, but sometimes them itchy paws twitch beyond control... Cheers to the holders.

[foodee]

Lawso
No red face, still very comfortable. Onwards to other things. Maybe revisit WAM when things stabilise.

cheers

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Recovery yesterday and today - currently 625. Surely back above Phaedrus's L-TT. Red faces perhaps for those who sold on the dip.


Gave them the heads up 3 days ago:)

B

[Phaedrus]

"Surely back above Phaedrus's L-TT. Red faces perhaps for those who sold on the dip."
Yes Lawso, WAM is back above the trendline again and I sold the last of mine on the dip. No red face though - this has been a very successful trade. I first bought on the trendline break of November 2002, so have held this stock for quite a while. It's a bit complex to calculate because I had 2 entry and 3 exit points, but I have more than doubled my money over this time, averaging about 43%pa. This is an excellent return by my standards and of course I have had quite good divvies on top of that.
WAM has certainly come off the boil - the shareprice is the same as it was 7 months ago. Who knows how long it will track sideways like this. A break above the resistance at $6.80 could perhaps see me back in.

[Halebop]

Nice trade P.

[Lawso]

quote:This is an excellent return by my standards and of course I have had quite good divvies on top of that.
An excellent return by any standards, I'd say, Phaedrus.
I can't match that, because most of the time I'm sitting on my hands, but the gain on my WAM holding since 3/'00, counting the occasional reduce/increase, is 76.4%. After totting up the divs I find I'm almost exactly 100% ahead:)

[Toddy]

Looks like someone is dumping WAM.

[scamper]

sure does. last time more than a million crossed was oct last year.
i'm now out, and felt fairly silly when i appeared to have sold too soon, but i think the dodgy chart signs must be well confirmed by now.
all a bit strange, because as someone pointed out on the previous page, the fundamentals haven't changed -- or have they, and we just didn't know?

[KJ]

Maybe Fisher Funds selling more-they sold a parcel in July.

[Placebo]

KJ fwiw Fisher Funds have posted a sharemarket notice today indicating that they have sold down the NZ Super fund holding in WAM. Explains the big volume and price movement in recent months.

Buggers! Buy more!!

[CrossTrainer]

I purchased just over 18 months ago and have made a paper profit of just over 50% including dividends and that's OK by me.

[scamper]

current best offer is 2000 @ 576. big parcel crossed yesterday, but today it looks like at least eight very small sellers and one 40k+.

do the March and July price peaks get interpreted as a double-top?
yesterday's close broke down through the lower bolli band, which is also on the turn from convergence to divergence. not a good look.

can anyone remind me why i'm closely watching this with a view to buying in again???? more to the point, any suggestions as to what would be a good buy price, and why! Cheers.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by scamper
any suggestions as to what would be a good buy price, and why! Cheers.

If you're interested in a long-term hold, I'd suggest about $6.90 if it acheives that on good volume. WAM is currently in a trading range, so buying on a breakout above $6.80 (which is why I suggested $6.90) is the go. I don't trade, but you could eke out an OK return trading the trends within the trading range, in which case you'd be looking for a break of the current downtrend (dashed red-line).
A break below what I've drawn as a trading range would be similar to a double-top, but from a technical point of view, you shouldn't be holding it then. (In fact, neither traders nor long termers would currently be in). UGLY

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/wam19oct05.gif

DISC: Long since ex-WAM

[Lawso]

Heard somthing on the radio today about WAM being in the running for a major acquisition in Aust. There's been no announcement on nzx.com, perhaps because there's no firm deal yet. Does anyone know more? The s p has been wallowing around $6 for ages but rose 4c today to 608, a long way from the 680 peak. WAM seems to have managed its Aust interests pretty well so far so a further expansion across the ditch could be positive for the company, and for us, esp. when/if the Kiwi $ falls from its absurd height of around A95c.

[Tom Hall]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Heard somthing on the radio today about WAM being in the running for a major acquisition in Aust.

http://sg.biz.yahoo.com/051129/15/3wvzn.html
Tuesday November 29, 11:22 AM
NZ Waste Mgmt: Keen On Brambles' Australian Waste Ops -2-




NZ Waste Mgmt: Sees Lot Of Interest In Aussie Cleanaway



NZ Waste Mgmt: Keen On Brambles' Australian Waste Ops

WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--New Zealand garbage company Waste Management NZ Ltd. (WAM.NZ) said Tuesday it is interested in bidding for the Australian waste business being sold by Brambles Industries Ltd. (BIL.AU).

Kim Ellis, managing director of Waste Management, said his company has the capacity to buy the Australian Cleanaway business that Anglo-Australian logistics company Brambles said earlier Tuesday it planned to sell.

"Of course we'd be interested," Ellis told Dow Jones Newswires.

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

November 28, 2005 22:06 ET

NZ Waste Mgmt: Keen On Brambles' Australian Waste Ops

WELLINGTON (Dow Jones)--New Zealand garbage company Waste Management NZ Ltd. (WAM.NZ) said Tuesday it is interested in bidding for the Australian waste business being sold by Brambles Industries Ltd. (BIL.AU).

Kim Ellis, managing director of Waste Management, said his company has the capacity to buy the Australian Cleanaway business that Anglo-Australian logistics company Brambles said earlier Tuesday it planned to sell.

"Of course we'd be interested," Ellis told Dow Jones Newswires.


NZ Waste Mgmt: Keen On Brambles' Australian Waste Ops -2-

However, Ellis added that it's still "early days" and he expects stiff competition for the business.

"There's a lot of money swimming around in private equity at the moment," Ellis noted.

Waste Management has been trying to grow its presence in Australia in recent times, but has previously expressed frustration that it hasn't managed to make any large acquisitions there.

Ellis said Cleanaway is the "right sort of business" for Waste Management to buy.

He said he is "very surprised" it has become available now, adding, "I would have thought maybe next year or so it could have".

Brambles announced a plan to sell its Cleanaway waste management business as part of a wider company restructuring, which includes a A$2.8 billion share buyback and a plan to unify its dual-listed company structure.

According to Cleanaway's Web site, the Australian business employs around 2,000 staff and has a presence in all of the country's mainland states and territories.

It has 700 specialist vehicles designed to "collect and transport a broad cross-section of solid and liquid wastes", and has about 36,000 customers.

Cleanaway's Web site said it also has a household business which has around 70 individual contracts with local authorities.

[Lawso]

Thanx, Tom. No sign of that story in NZ Herald.

Sounds like it would be a major for WAM if they were to buy Cleanaway, which of course arouses some nervousness, recalling TEL, WHS etc problems in Oz. But I know Ellis and co. wouldn't pursue it unless they were confident of being able to handle it.

[Tom Hall]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Thanx, Tom. No sign of that story in NZ Herald.

Sounds like it would be a major for WAM if they were to buy Cleanaway, which of course arouses some nervousness, recalling TEL, WHS etc problems in Oz. But I know Ellis and co. wouldn't pursue it unless they were confident of being able to handle it.
Lawso like you I heard the story on the radio, Your post reminded me so, I googled it. Cleanaways sounds like a fairly large business, you're right. But Waste Mangement already have a longer term(since 2001) presence in Aus, so I hope that helps them. I'm including a link for cleanaways so anyone who wants can have a look.http://www.cleanaway.com.au/clwy:topframe
Don't forget others have done well in Aus too. MHL, EBO, Rank the main question is, do they have a good business model for Aus and can add value. But they have to get cleanways first, they don't sound confident.

[limegreen]

I have occasionally followed Brambles, and they were in a trading halt yesterday. There was some expectation that a sale might be announced, however, it turned out to be only an indication that they plan to divest and some corporate restructuring, rather than an outright sale (I think).

[Placebo]

Selling all its waste units internationally. Seen a Reuters story speculating on who might buy the UK unit, no comment on possible Aust waste service buyers.

Though at a P/E of 7, it looks reasonable value

quote:Based on sales of waste management businesses in the past two years, Merrill Lynch reckoned Cleanaway UK - Britain's biggest waste management group - could fetch A$1.1 billion, or 7.5 times forecast 2006 earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation. The Australian business would sell for about A$600 million, or 7 times forecast 2006 earnings.

Merrill said Spanish construction and services group FCC stood out as a likely trade buyer of Cleanaway UK.

Other possible bidders include buyout firms such as British financier Guy Hands's Terra Firma, which already owns UK waste assets, as well as water companies Severn Trent and Pennon Group, which also have waste units, industry sources said.

The sources added private equity companies may be in pole position to buy the business due to the abundance of cheap debt they can use to boost their returns.

[winner69]

Some say WAM at 612 is pretty expensive ... being 24 times last years earnings and 20 times forecast earnings

WAM is currently at 7.5 times forecast EBITDA ... which seems to be what Merril Lynch says waste management businesses have been selling (globally?) for lately ... which also suggests WAM more than fairly valued.

WAM market cap is about $600M .... about the same size as the Cleanaway aussie business

Be interesting if WAM did decide to make a $600M acquisition

[Placebo]

WAM is top of the pops according to this survey. Clearly the market is delighted, has rewarded this with a 20c price drop [xx(][xx(]

quote:Waste company top of the heap
02 December 2005
By SUE ALLEN

Waste Management might deal in rubbish, but is savouring success after being named company of the year.


Waste Management scooped the top prize from fellow finalists, Fisher & Paykel Healthcare and Fletcher Building, in the annual Deloitte and Management Magazine Top 200 Awards.

The win was even sweeter for managing director Kim Ellis, named as executive of the year ahead of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare's Michael Daniell and Mighty River Power's Doug Heffernan.

Judges said Waste Management was one of New Zealand's most consistent and well-managed businesses to emerge during the past two decades.

It was a "model enterprise, showing leadership in governance and management excellence and embracing enlightened social and environmental standards".

Judges described Mr Ellis as an exceptional leader who "puts great store by doing it right, looking after his people and thinking about the impact of his enterprise's actions on the community and the environment".

Affco's Sam Lewis was named chairperson of the year. McDonald's vice-president of operations Grant Watson was named young executive of the year.

AdvertisementAdvertisementNavigation technology company Navman won the best growth strategy award.

Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall got a special visionary leader award.

[scamper]

hello Limegreen and chums.
It looks as though the cautions re buying back into Wam late last year were well warranted. the chart is still not showing anything to encourage me!
still like this company though, so watching carefully.

[limegreen]

It certainly does seem seriously be-calmed at the moment, although that may make for all the more excitement when something starts to happen.

[Paper Tiger]

Since the 23rd of january at $5.93 WAM has risen every day on average volumes and is currently trading at $6.40.
Quite happy with this, especially if it continues, I bought some a while back when it was oversold, but does anybody know any particular reason for this recent enthusiam?
Full year ann is coming up in a few weeks.

[Lawso]

WAM is on the move!
Up 10c today to 640 after wallowing around 600 for 2-3 months. I wonder what's in the wind (apart from whiffs of biogas). Maybe that Cleanaway deal is near fruition. It's known that Ellis & Co have been giving Aust a lot of attention lately.

WAM is due to report full year's result around early March. In the HY report a FY net surplus of $30m was forecast for '05 - '04: $25.6m.

Whither WAM?

[Lawso]

PT, I hadn't read your post when I burbled the above. But if you ask me, I think there is a definite green and gold tinge to the current enthusiasm.

But what would I know?

[Lawso]

PT, I hadn't read your post when I burbled the above. But if you ask me, I think there is a definite green and gold tinge to the current enthusiasm.

But what would I know?

[Paper Tiger]

Heavy volume in WAM and up 5c to 630c today.

[Paper Tiger]

[^] Full year is out.
[|)] Zero surprises.
:) Continued growth envisaged.
[:p] Collect divvy (7.2% gross for the last year at $6.40/s)
[8D] Hope recent 3+ month uptrend continues long term.

[Lawso]

Yep, great result. Confirms belief expressed by me and others that WAM is handling and developing its Aussie businesses very sensibly. Hope they pull off the Cleanaway deal.

[Paper Tiger]

Lots of positive press overnight.
A lot is being made of the Cleanaway possibility.
It is a company going places even without 'the big deal'.

[Placebo]

Hey guys, great to see the market giving this baby some luuuurve. PT I think your uptrend could well hold for a wee while.

ForBarr has uprated its forecast and valuation. No doubt others will do similar.

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Hey guys, great to see the market giving this baby some luuuurve. PT I think your uptrend could well hold for a wee while.

ForBarr has uprated its forecast and valuation. No doubt others will do similar.

Down 9c since this was posted to finish even on the day.
Just keep quiet in future Placebo, you do not have my skills in talking up the share price :D

tomorrow, tomorrow, there's always tomorrow

[Placebo]

Ah, yes. Hmm. I was forgetting. The Placebo Effect :(

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Ah, yes. Hmm. I was forgetting. The Placebo Effect :(


Down 5c since this was posted to finish even on the day.
I am beginning to see a pattern here ;)

[Bling_Bling]

A real quality company. :)

[Placebo]

Memo to self: keep mouth shut today.

[Paper Tiger]

quote:Originally posted by Placebo

Memo to self: keep mouth shut today.

Down 1c since this was posted to finish up 4c on the day.
Silence is golden [8D]

[Placebo]

..... http://www.grandamgt.com/forum/images/smilies/whistling.gif]

[warthog]

WAM as a fuel company - how does that sit with all you comfortable WAM holders?

disc: no WAM (yet)

[Placebo]

Mmmmpf Uummpffff wmmmmpffffff!!

[Paper Tiger]

I presume warthog you refer to the generation of electricity from the burning of landfill gases?
I have to agree with Placebo on that one, definitely a neat idea.

[Paper Tiger]

Down 14c today [:0]
Placebo, are you making invisible posts again? (Don't answer that)

:)

[scamper]

I see this page is topped by Lawso's post showing excitement that wam had jumped 10 cents to 640 -- about 13 months ago.

sure has been some feeble flapping around since then, but today looks like a fresh foray into high altitude places. Up 19 cents to 693.

does today's historical peak mean anything (technically) or is it just a reflection of the 15.8 cps divi report date of 23 March?

have a good evening. Lawso, have one for the teetotalling scamper, or two, or three...

[bongo66]

I have an idea the DIV is a motivation. This share is tightly held and doesnt take much volume for it to go up or down.

It has done this over the last 3 divs. Gone up to close to 7 bucks, from memory up to around $6.85 and then retraced below 6 bucks in short time.

Looks like it could go above 7 this time. I would like to get out at this time as It would have given me a more than 30% gross return in a year but I want to re-buy this share at around 6 bucks or less.

It faces regulatory issues in the courts at present and i think that has been forgotten.

B

[Lawso]

Thanks, scamper. For me, WAM is one of 10 reasons for a modest celebration tonight. I doubt if the upcoming divvy, ex on 24/03, is particularly relevant. The rise is more or less on a par with the other leading stocks, with perhaps some positive speculation about the two acquisitions in Oz which WAM is hoping to pull off. I'm not sure about the regulatory issues bongo refers to, but it's a solid well managed company, as I've said before.

Where there's mook there's brass.

[bongo66]

I'm not sure about the regulatory issues bongo refers to, but it's a solid well managed company, as I've said before.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3603863a13,00.html

As a shareholder you should know this. It is public and has been for months...

B

[Placebo]

$7! Go you good thing. Bong: I think the regulatory issues are low-risk (although a risk). WAM is challenging this in the courts. As an aside they are a net beneficiary of carbon credits. Aust acquisitions ahead, could be more blue skies.

Sorry PT, couldn't help myself!

[Paper Tiger]

[V][V] :( [xx(] [:0][:0] :( ;)

:D

[Placebo]

Ach, down 4c today...

[Lawso]

This is from today's Sunday Star-Times. I note there is not even a mention of the "regulatory issues" that bongo seems so worried about.

*** **B*U*S*I*N*E*S*S* *S*T*O*R*Y***

Spending up big on rubbish
19 March 2006

By TERRY HALLDespite warnings to investors to be cautious, Waste Management shares have shown solid gains since the company announced what analysts termed "another excellent result" late last month.



A bumper profit should justify the share price moving up, but some analysts are advising investors to be cautious because Waste Management is negotiating to buy the Cleanaway rubbish disposal business in Australia from Brambles.

Waste Management says this would be "a quantum leap" that would transform the company.

ABN Amro's James Miller and Daniel Kieser recommend it as a buy, but say: "We are acutely aware that Waste Management could face a significant capital raising if it is successful in buying Cleanaway."

First NZ Capital is neutral on the stock. Analyst Murray Brown said there were increased risks for its shareholders as directors tried to build its Australian operations, with Cleanaway and the waste business of the New South Wales state government on the market.

Writing immediately after the profit result - when Waste Management shares were trading at $6.40 - ABN Amro said the prospect of this capital raising suggested investors would "have time to get into the stock".

But in this month's robust market, investors ignored this advice, and the shares rose to around $6.90 last week, a record high.

This will have been bolstered by the recent New Zealand Day presentation in Sydney, hosted by ABN Amro Craigs and addressed by executives of most major New Zealand companies.

Waste Management managing director Kim Ellis and chief financial officer Ken Bugden said they were confident that they could introduce innovative ideas and technology to Cleanaway if they succeeded in buying it.

ABN Amro analyst Mark Lister, reporting on the presentation, said the executives said that after taking a closer look at Cleanaway they discovered that it "wasn't nearly the pure waste management business" they had hoped it would be, though it had a strong collection business, which was the "pearl of its operations which everyone was chasing".

They discovered Cleanaway's landfill business was non-existent, a potential upside.

They said Transpacific Industries, which is listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, was well-positioned to buy Cleanaway. But Waste Management intended to put its best offer on the table and "see how it goes".

The executives said that apart from Transpacific and their own company, there was a "risk that a private equity player would enter the fray and pay too much for Cleanaway, having inadequate knowledge of the business". If this happened, they expected Cleanaway would be back on the market in a few years.

Lister said Waste Management was gaining recognition in Australia after making several small acquisitions over the past five years.

Its policy of targeting smaller acquisitions was because the only businesses on the market had been small. But these acquisitions had been successful, giving the company the confidence that it can achieve bigger things in Australia.

Waste Management executives said they intended to take advantage of further "tuck in" acquisition businesses in New Zealand. Recent purchases included Parkes in Whangerei and Onyx in New Plymouth, Wellington and Christchurch.

The company would benefit from price increases at its Redvale and Whitford plants and from an upgrade of the Hamilton transfer station.

In Australia, the company intended to focus on improving the profitability of its Victorian Dry Waste and Adelaide Post Collection businesses.

Reviewing the latest full year result - an adjusted tax-paid profit up 24% to $30.7 million - Marcus Curley of Goldman Sachs JBWere said it was at the upper end of forecasts. The main positives were revenue growth in New Zealand and contributions from Technical Services i

[scamper]

All good stuff!
Lawso, I think the record date for the 15.8 cps div is 23 March, not 24th as you suggested.
Can anyone confirm this?

[Lawso]

According to my information the record date is 24/03, trades ex div from 27/03, paid on 30/03.

WOW! Have you seen the price this morning? Up 12c to 710.

[bongo66]

on 50000 $ vol...

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

According to my information the record date is 24/03, trades ex div from 27/03, paid on 30/03.

WOW! Have you seen the price this morning? Up 12c to 710.


And down 8c on less than 10000$ volume!!!![B)]

[Lawso]

"The link is b roken . . ."[?][?]

What are you on about, bongo? I posted this same article in full yesterday.

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

"The link is b roken . . ."[?][?]

What are you on about, bongo? I posted this same article in full yesterday.


mmm, I didnt post the piece of which you speak...[:X]

B

[Lawso]

Sorry. So what is rmb on about[?][?]

[Paper Tiger]

I believe rmbbrave suffers from compulsive copy and paste disorder.

$7 attained.
Wonderful company that it is with a history of good growth and paying out a high portion of profit as dividends. The possibility of buying up large in Oz seems to be generating a never ending stream of press articles. Here's todays (http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3610557a13,00.html) for rmbbrave to copy;)

[Paper Tiger]

PS I recognise my own version of the affliction :(

[Placebo]

The weird thing is the wide disparity of broker valuations (guesstimates) in the Hall article. How can you have anything from $6.65 to $7.20 when they all have access to the same information?

[Paper Tiger]

Broker evaluations are based not only on the published results of previous years but also on three other factors:
1) The make of crystal ball they have;
2) The version of software installed in same;
3) When it was last polished and with what.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

"The link is b roken . . ."[?][?]

What are you on about, bongo? I posted this same article in full yesterday.


Sorry.

Deleted

[scamper]

direct broking citing 698 and up 4.8%?
guess the ex date was 23rd after all (as per the news release on DB's site).
Was anyone else caught out -- i planned to sell cum div...

[bongo66]

quote:Originally posted by Lawso

Thanks, scamper. For me, WAM is one of 10 reasons for a modest celebration tonight. I doubt if the upcoming divvy, ex on 24/03, is particularly relevant. The rise is more or less on a par with the other leading stocks, with perhaps some positive speculation about the two acquisitions in Oz which WAM is hoping to pull off. I'm not sure about the regulatory issues bongo refers to, but it's a solid well managed company, as I've said before.

Where there's mook there's brass.


Was the divvy holding it up, watch for a good dumping back towards 6$ over several weeks.

B

[Toddy]

I'm crying over missing this one.

Well done to those who were on board WAM.

[Paper Tiger]

A Takeover by any other name.

Will another quality Kiwi company dissappear under Ozzie ownership?

[Dazza]

MERGGGGGGER!!!

[KJ]

Bugger-sold last week!

[Dazza]

that must be killin ya KJ....

anyhow, so does that mean, WAM is no more ?

[Lawso]

quote:A takeover by any other name.

Will another quality Kiwi company disappear under Ozzie ownership?
Looks like it, PT. But who's weeping? My WAM holding just gained $12,750, plus an $1185 divvy due in the mail Friday :)

It's been a well kept secret. Good on them. But will old man IRD come after us for CGT when we sell?[V]

PS. Commiserations, KJ. I apologise for gloating.

[scamper]

don't see why he should. No prudent investor can look at a 24% windfall and not consider rearranging his/her portfolio.
and to think that scamper thought he'd missed out by not selling last week. condolences to kj and toddy -- your turn is another day. cheers.
oh, PS. anyone selling today?

[Lawso]

So far 47 trades, 458,000 shares, latest 865 - up 166.

[Placebo]

Well this is a nice little windfall. However, it's bitter-sweet because while the dosh is nice it will be sad to lose another great company from the NZ board. From reading the NZX notice, it appears that it is in effect a takeover by the Aussie company. There is no mention of it on the notice, but I assume this will mean WAM will disappear from the NZX board...

Next question becomes, where to park all this loverly dosh...?

[Lawso]

quote:Next question becomes, where to park all this loverly dosh...?
I'm putting some into FPA, which I've (foolishly) never owned. Also probably some more FBU and NPX.

[rmbbrave]

Alarm over Waste 'merger'
29 March 2006
By GARETH VAUGHAN

Some of Waste Management's biggest shareholders are urging the Takeovers Panel to review the way a "merger proposal" between the waste disposal company and Australia's Transpacific Industries sidesteps the Takeovers Code.


They say the code could be rendered redundant if deals like this one and another proposed "merger" between Origin Energy and Contact Energy are allowed to become the norm.

Transpacific launched an $8.64-a-share, or $870 million, offer for Waste Management on Monday via an amalgamation proposal that falls under the Companies Act rather than the Takeovers Code. If the bid succeeds, Waste Management will be incorporated into a Transpacific subsidiary and cease to exist.

For its offer to succeed, Transpacific requires 75 per cent of votes at a mid-May shareholders meeting. If the Australian firm had launched a takeover offer, covered by the code and policed by the Takeovers Panel in the interests of minority shareholders, it would require 90 per cent.

"This, if passed, will set a very dangerous precedent of how companies can be acquired in New Zealand," Tyndall Investment Management equities manager Rickey Ward said yesterday.

"It is nothing more than a full takeover (offer) for cash and as a result they should require 90 per cent."

Brook Asset Management executive chairman Simon Botherway noted the Transpacific offer came soon after the proposed merger between Australia's Origin and Contact.

Under this deal, which Contact shareholders will vote on in June, Origin's Contact stake would rise from 51 per cent to 75.7 per cent without Origin putting another dollar on the table.

The Transpacific bid, however, does offer a 24 per cent premium to Waste Management's closing share price from Friday. The Aussie firm is also offering a special dividend before the takeover to pass on imputation credit benefits.

Despite this, fund managers are concerned about the deal's structure. The 75 per cent acceptance threshold, rather than 90 per cent, lowers their prospects of remaining as minority shareholders.

"If this is the new type of takeover then clearly the Takeovers Code is somewhat redundant," Mr Botherway said.

Warren Couillault, chief investment officer at 6.2 per cent Waste Management shareholder Fisher Funds, and Amanda Smith, senior investment manager at 6.8 per cent shareholder ING, also expressed concerns.

"We are looking for the Takeovers Panel to review the situation," Ms Smith said.

Kerry Morrell, the panel's senior executive officer, declined to comment.

Mr Couillault said it was a concern that Waste Management's board, like Contact's, had unanimously recommended the Transpacific deal without making an independent third party perspective available to shareholders.

"We don't know what process the board has followed in arriving at that conclusion. We have to hope they got some external advice," Mr Couillault said. Neither was he satisfied the price was fair.

Waste Management chairman Jim Syme said the amalgamation proposal was presented by Transpacific.

A key benefit for Transpacific was certainty.

"It's either going to be a deal or not a deal. Whereas with a takeover (offer) you don't know where you'd finish up," Mr Syme said.

Waste Management's board would obtain an independent report, which would be mailed to shareholders before the May meeting, he said.

"We believe, and most of the market believes, that this is a pretty fantastic price. We are quietly confident independent advice will support our unanimous recommendation.

"If it didn't then we might withdraw our recommendation."

Waste Management's shares rose 11 cents to $8.58 yesterday.

[rmbbrave]

quote:Originally posted by scamper

Agree, lawso, except I think a new thread for a new activity/phase in the life of a share is a good thing -- heaven forbid that i agree with bongo, but...
Scamper exited wam first thing at 865, and is very content with the 35% profit in 2 months. :)
little puppy brains have trouble with too many variables... [:I]


I think you're right Scamper,

I sold all my WAM today too. I don't think the SP is going to go up much more and there is a slim chance the takeover could fall apart. (see above article)

But who really knows the future is full of unforseen events isn't it Bongo.