WHS Chart

[Phaedrus]

Since giving an obvious Sell signal 2 years ago, WHS has offered but a single trading opportunity - the trendline break trade in the latter half of 2003. Apart from this single exception, WHS has been in a series of accelerating downtrends for two years. I have plotted the latest trendline in dotted red. It would take a brave punter to buy if/when this trendline is broken, though, because WHS is tracking sideways, short-term. The On Balance Volume indicator continues to fall, showing that larger players are continuing to divest themselves of this stock. Notice how, for the last 8 months, all high volume days have been down days. The Warehouse seems intent on testing the lows of May 2003 and February 2004. At this stage there is nothing to suggest that a turnaround is imminent - WHS could bounce along the bottom like this for years.
A lot of people have lost a lot of money on this stock.
http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/WHS003.gif

[marinesalvor]

lovely piece of work thanks Phaedrus - illustrates the point well...

Add to this the lack of action on addressing WHS OZ issues and you have a great big NO for putting money in the red shed

[Halebop]

Thanks P,

I was just wondering if someone posted their chart/TA thoughts and :bing!: your post appeared.

[Benlamnz]

Phaderus:

Just wondering if you use the experts in Metastock to help you come up with these lovely charts, or simply apply your own TA in coming up with templates.

[Risk]

as well as the above, there's also the possibility of a third huge drop down if it breaks below the support line shown.
there is a lot of negative sentiment around WHS.

[Stock Man]

classic stuff. One of my favourite indicators (Wilders Directional Movement) and ADX shows the down trend gathering steam. Not for my liking yet either:( As Phaedrus mentions....it would take a brave punter

[Phaedrus]

Benlamnz, I sometimes use the standard MetaStock Indicators and "Experts", but often create my own. For example, the Volume histogram at the bottom of the chart is colour-coded - Green updays, Red downdays. This is not available as a standard MetaStock indicator, but the program does enable you to create your own indicators such as this, trailing stops, etc etc. I am happy to give you the code, if you want it. PS it's Phaedrus, not Phaderus.

Halebop, No accident, the chart was for you - I saw your request on the WHS thread.

[Snoopy]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

The On Balance Volume indicator continues to fall, showing that larger players are continuing to divest themselves of this stock. Notice how, for the last 8 months, all high volume days have been down days.


Hi Phaedrus,

The high volume days would tend to suggest that large players are involved. However, for every seller there has to be a buyer. So how do you know if the large volume days are the not the large players buying share lots from many spooked small players?

SNOOPY

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by Phaedrus

Halebop, No accident, the chart was for you - I saw your request on the WHS thread.


Awww. Shucks. [:I] Thank you. In reading your chart it appears the major support level is $4.12 ish? Looks like that is being tested today!

Snoopy I guess on the volume question it does say regardless who is doing the buying and selling that many are prepared to dump shares in volume at "low" prices. Time will tell just how low that price was.

[Benlamnz]

Phaedrus:

It would be be wonderful of you can send me the code. My email adress is bl29@waikato.ac.nz. Once again a big thank you for producing the charts and sharing your knowledge.

[spector]

I'm an amatuer investor and don't have the tools or expertise to predict how a stock will perform in the future. I tend to look at things from a grassroots level. I only buy stocks that I believe will have a potential for growth outside of New Zealand rather than inside. My gut feel is that the warehouse just doesn't offer anything different from 'warehouse style' operations that are already established overseas... so i can't see any future growth for the company other than opening more stores in provincial NZ.

[Phaedrus]

Hi Snoopy - this is almost like old times!

A large seller coming in to the market will normally take out multiple (smaller) buyers. This leads to a drop in price. Similarly, a large buyer coming in to the market will usually take out multiple smaller sellers, pushing the price up. If bigger players are dumping a stock, you get high volume down-days, which are quantified by the On Balance Volume indicator, showing this as a fall.
It is of course quite possible that external events may have spooked a large number small holders, who, in selling, could take out a significant number of small buyers. This situation would be indistinguishable from the first case, as monitored by the OBV. This doesn't matter though - a large enough group of small sellers could have the same impact on the market as a single large seller. Any selling pressure, regardless of who may lie behind it, has negative implications for the share price.
"So how do you know if the large volume days are the not the large players buying share lots from many spooked small players"? You don't. But let's imagine there is a big institutional buyer picking up these panicked small sellers as they quit the stock. This will tend to put a floor under the market, tend to provide support at the level the big buyer is sitting at soaking up the small sellers. Let's take your example and assume that a single big buyer was exactly balanced by many small sellers. This would give a very high volume day, with no overall change in the share price. Now, while this fact will not register on the OBV, it will show as very heavy volume day when there was no price change - this is a Doji. They often occur at significant turning points, and if that happens here, you will have a Price/Volume climax, again, often found at major turning points. A really big patient buyer may stand in the market for extended periods of time, picking up stock from less patient (and less well informed) small sellers. Again, this shows very clearly on the chart as support. The big buyer has provided support, a floor beneath which the stock does not fall.
Big buyers and big sellers cannot hide their activity from the market and they cannot trade without affecting the market. Even insider trading can often show very clearly on the chart.

Regards,
Phaedrus.

[Phaedrus]

Benlamnz, here is the MetaStock code to give a colour-coded volume histogram. Go into the Indicator Builder, click "New" and enter this :-

If(C< Ref(C,-1),V,0);
If(C> Ref(C,-1),V,0);
If(C= Ref(C,-1),V,0);

When you apply this indicator to any given chart, Right click on each of the 3 plots, select the colour you want and select the histogram "style".

[Phaedrus]

For the fourth time in two years WHS has found support at around $4.00. Every time this stock has gone below $4.02 on intraday trading, there has been a strong surge in volume. Todays rise, while of only one cent, was the highest volume up-day for well over a year. Note how the OBV has been trending sideways or down for more than 2 years as bigger holders bailed out. Who knows how long WHS will crab sideways, but I would not be at all surprised if this support level continued to hold.
There is a nice tidy confirmed trendline in place. Disciplined trend followers would probably not buy until price action breaks above this.

The plot of Closing prices is in black, with intraday values in light grey. The volume bars at the bottom are colour coded. Red down days, Green up days, Blue No change.

http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-10/848030/WHS001.gif

[MPC]

Thanks Phaedrus for an excellent chart. Hope the support holds, I want a decent rise then I am leaving this stock forever. Better opportunies elsewhere.

Cheers,
MPC

[airedale]

I remember some time ago,maybe more than a year, Snoopy did the Warren Buffet maths on the WHS and bought in when there was a big down day...Might have been around $4.18 from memory...
In contrast with the excellent TA on this thread, I wonder if Snoopy would like to refresh our memories and come back to the WHS as a Buffet style value buy.

[thereslifeafter87]

Buffett wouldn't buy.

Management has shown they take large punts on speculative opportunities (expanding in aussie), the price is not low enough to compensate for this - PE around 20 from memory...

Sure if they ditch Aussie, earnings will improve, but future possibilities for growth would then be limited. If they stay in Aussie.... As Buffett always says, turnarounds seldom turn.

WHS might be a cash cow in NZ, but the price ain't right.

[winner69]

and they need heaps of capital ... seen their free cash flows over the last few years?

[belgarion]

w69,

C.F. isn't looking good but is manageable. That said, i expect (hope for ;)) another TRH, TWR type performance. Slow downward slide, panick, then rights issue with further plans for Oz, signs Oz improves. Belgarion will be in ... maybe.

PH, when decreasing volumes go with support levels, are the any statistical likelihoods for certain types of action should those level be broken? I.e. just contniued downward spiral, big/fast drops with small / or high volumes. Sorry, it's a very broad scenerio but I thought someone might have studied such behaviour.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

w69,

C.F. isn't looking good but is manageable. That said, i expect (hope for ;)) another TRH, TWR type performance. Slow downward slide, panick, then rights issue with further plans for Oz, signs Oz improves. Belgarion will be in ... maybe.



Belg Wasn't doubting the quality of the cash flows - comment made in response to whether Buffett would buy WHS

Prob wouldn't because most of the cash flows are being put back into the business - Warren would want to put these cash flows into other investments (not always a reinvestor)

Maube WHS isn't really a cash cow after all

I sometimes wonder if future capex is included in poeples DCF valuations - doesn't seem all do

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

I sometimes wonder if future capex is included in poeples DCF valuations - doesn't seem all do


You might be rignt as that would explain why people are 'valuing' the coy so highly.

[Phaedrus]

For the first time in 2 years, WHS has broken above its confirmed longterm downward trendline, giving a Buy signal. This is nicely confirmed by the simultaneous breaking of the long-term On Balance Volume trendline. The OBV can provide useful confirmation of price trendline breaks, as it did (eventually!) with the Sell signal before the meltdown.
WHS gave 3 short-term Buy signals over this time. (Light green arrows) All would have been profitable so long as you had some sort of exit strategy. Those buying at the last one would still be holding, having bought very near to the Low. Note how volume on Up days has been higher than volume on down days recently. This is bullish.

http://home.ripway.com/2004-7/148483/WHS29001.gif

[Studson]

It seems the negative sentiment surrounding WHS is a little too strong for some of the ST clan? It just seems odd to me that everybody asks for your advice (and usually gets it!) and yet here you give a big 'buy' signal based on the same TA you use to analyse other stock trends, which I think you must be confident about to volunteer the information and the potential sh*t slinging that may arise because of it. Just thought I'd put it at the top of the list for a bit of renewed enthusiasm...maybe? But like you said at the start of this thread Phaedrus, alot of people have lost alot of money on WHS. Thanks for all your invaluable advice. Just a thought. Studson.

Disc: Not a big time player but I got 1000 WHS today.

[Capitalist]

The smart money said February 2 months ago if you had been paying attention. Our good man Phaedrus confirms it.

[winner69]

cap - so it looks like i will holding some recently purchased WHS for many a year then?

many years going up ... 3 years coming down ... so how many years going up again

And not a mention of Walmart in the last few days either

[Shamrock]

Yes there are plenty of technical reasons to buy WHS right now. They are documented well by Phaedrus so I needn't repeat him.

I haven't bought though - the fundamentals have meant that WHS is off my shopping list - at least for the time being. I also believe that there will be a reaction low to come. A trendline break does not always mean that a stock is going to keep rising - however it usually is a sign that the prevailing trend has ended, or is about to end.

I'm picking that unless there is some positive news regarding revenue or corporate activity, the share will fall below 400 again, although it is possible 400 will provide support once more.

I would be unsurprised to see WHS enter a trading range for awhile, certainly in the absence of any stellar news.

[prosperity]

Phaedrus.On your chart the confirmed downtrend starts around January 2003 when in fact around mid 2002 the SP peaked and then commenced it,s slide.My question is why does your downtrend not start at this earlier point because if it did the downtrend would be far from over.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by prosperity

Phaedrus.On your chart the confirmed downtrend starts around January 2003 when in fact around mid 2002 the SP peaked and then commenced it,s slide.My question is why does your downtrend not start at this earlier point because if it did the downtrend would be far from over.


If you look back left towards the green uptrend line Phaedrus' methodology highlighted the end of the uptrend (rather than the confirmation of the downtrend) around August 2002 - hence he highlighted this with the big bold red letters spelling "SELL".

The lines you are referring to is the confirmed downtrend. This is used in preperation for the eventual buy signal, not the sell. Only afterwards do you see the beginning of the new downtrend as this requires points of confirming data:
- because this is the only way to draw a straight line
- and because it requires different "high" values to set the trajectory

[sharebattler]

From "THe New Zealand Herald"

Investors query bargain tag on The Warehouse

09.02.05
By KAREN CHAN


A leaked cost-cutting plan for The Warehouse has met with a cautious welcome among investors.

Warehouse shares were up as much as 5c yesterday as news of its bid to win lower prices from suppliers sweetened investors' confidence. Shares in the company closed 3c higher at $4.18 each.

Despite the gains, fund managers said the discount retailer would have to prove it could deliver before its plans had real credibility.

A report in the Herald revealed The Warehouse met with 200 of its 3000 suppliers to outline a new "strategic supplier management programme" designed to cut its costs and improve the quality of the products and service it was offered.

Some suppliers were asked to deliver a 10 per cent discount to the company - against a backdrop of plans to halve the number of Warehouse suppliers.

A spokesman for the company said yesterday that discount targets had been set on a case-by-case basis.

While the programme was about reducing costs, it could also involve working with suppliers to look at product designs and ranges and helping them improve their own efficiency.

Rather than having a set finish, the programme would introduce an ongoing way of doing business, he said.

Tyndall fund manager Rickey Ward said the plans were a "step in the right direction" by Warehouse chief executive Ian Morrice, but he had heard turnaround plans too often in the past.

"For myself as a shareholder I'm going to wait until he delivers ... implementation has always been the problem for this company."

Ward said the company had been focused on its problems in Australia, while inefficiency crept in to its New Zealand operations where its stock had become mismatched to consumer demand.

"The Warehouse had a pretty successful formula ... they used to offer bargain, better, best. That's what they need to get back to," he said.

Paul Richardson, of BT Funds Management, said the company would have to make changes at the same time as it fought back against competitors such as Bunnings Warehouse and Mitre 10, which have built up large-format stores rapidly and have undercut its prices.

While it was vital Morrice rapidly attacked costs, as well as adding value to the experience of shopping at the chain through efforts such as training staff, he would have difficulty doing so in a weaker retail environment with economic growth predicted to slow.

"He [Morrice] has had a couple of months in the seat and is saying good things, but frankly it's a pretty long turnaround story ... they have a significant headwind and competition."

Richardson also believed there could be dangers in pressuring suppliers, who could now sell to the growing number of Warehouse competitors.

"They're running the risk of destabilising the structure they had."

[Phaedrus]

Prosperity,
It is important to differentiate between trends and trendlines - while closely associated, they are not the same thing. A trendline links a series of lower highs (in a downtrend) or a series of higher Lows (in an Uptrend). An Uptrend requires higher highs and higher lows just as a downtrend requires lower highs and lower lows. Therefore you can have a trendline break while the underlying trend is still intact, just as you can have a change in trend without the trendline being broken. Sometimes the 2 events do coincide, but more commonly they are sequential.
The long WHS uptrend was followed by a 6+ month trading range - this ended on 17/1/03 when the downtrend began. A downtrend is confirmed when you get a lower low after a lower high. An uptrend is confirmed when you get a higher high after a higher low. A trendline is confirmed when a third high (in an uptrend) or a third low (in a downtrend) "respects" the tentative trendline formed by linking the first 2 points.

[duncan macgregor]

PHEADRUS, GOOD EXPLANATION. Even although it shows a buy signal, you would have to be desperate to buy at this point. The logical reason it shows a buy signal is, a lot of buyers think the sp has bottomed and bought in. If it goes into a narrow trading range like i expect, then a lot of those will pull stakes and move on, giving a sell signal. From a pure TA perspective a trading range, not a trend looking at the chart, is my interpretation. The fundamentals are being changed with the new broom cleaning up, but will it be enough?.
The one thing that will lift or lower the price is the next lot of news nothing much will happen before that. macdunk

[zac]

Not mentioned above but refered to in earlier reports was the intention by WHS to cut product lines. With other retailers getting bigger (eg Mitre 10) and supermarkets (eg Countdown)getting into hard goods at bargain prices where does this leave WHS? It is starting to look like a provincial general store trying to do everything with a limited product range but doing nothing very well. The line about good service and quality product is just not the brand. WHS grew out of 'Container King' or somesuch; perhaps that is where it will return.

[port hills]

WHS has been outflanked at the cheap junk end buy the likes of the $2 shop, that is where the stocking fillers were bought this christmas. (at least that is my theory)
The Warehouse I believe should be middle of the road reasonable quality not pretentious not rubbish. The sort of stuff I mostly buy there is CDs etc because their quality is the same as anywhere and pricing is sharper than most. What I don't want to buy there are tins of budget biscuits that look and taste cheap.
Just a few thoughts. :)

[kiwi_on_OE]

Phaedrus, so a trendline could be drawn starting from the peak in mid '02 and continuing through the point where you start the red trendline?

[Phaedrus]

KoOE,
If you take a look at the chart that started this thread you will see a trendline drawn precisely between the points you mention. This tentative trendline was never confirmed and was soon rendered obsolete as the downtrend accelerated away from it.

[Liberty]

Although WHS has had a good run so far this year, the chart looks bearish to me, with what looks to be a head-and-shoulders pattern nearing completion.

[winner69]

The tea lady interupted Ian putting together the story about the half year result due to be announced Monday

.... couldn't understand phrases look stock provisioning , margin pressures and the like

.... but she must have passed on the words because a few getting out pre Monday

[belgarion]

I suspect that cash strapped, highly-geared consumers who won't be to willing to spend given that i-rates are going up and up and up might be part of the picture too. :)

Still, smallish trades though. Big trades will happen post result.

How wonderful it is to be wallowing in cash ;)

[The GrandMaster]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

I suspect that cash strapped, highly-geared consumers who won't be to willing to spend given that i-rates are going up and up and up might be part of the picture too. :)


Though you would think that this might make consumers more likely to shop at the Warehouse than other retailers. An "inferior good" in a way.

[Halebop]

quote:Originally posted by The GrandMaster

Though you would think that this might make consumers more likely to shop at the Warehouse than other retailers. An "inferior good" in a way.


There is a fair argument for just that based on previous performance GM however with increased size comes the burden of performing in line with the economy as a whole.

I'm still not keen.

[kura]

Gee some excellent comments here, however now price has dropped below $4 today, couldn't Phaedrus redraw his trendline with a less acute angle to accomodate the highs of a month ago and then say "WHS is still in a long term downtrend" or dosen't charting work that way ?

[limegreen]

Kura, a down-trend requires a lower low after a lower high. Thus, a new low below $3.50 would be required for a less acute downtrend to start. Further, this down-trend, were it to occur, would be unconfirmed until a third 'lower high' were to touch the trendline. WHS is not looking too healthy, but it's not back in a down-trend. Yet.

DISC: no amount of drugs would make me consider buying

[kura]

Thanks for the explanation LG, I now understand there are rules to follow before you can draw lines on a graph, however is there a reason for rules, or is this just "Generally Accepted Practise" ?

Disc: My one and only time as WHS shareholder only lasted a couple of weeks (3.60....3.90) So I'm standing on sideline, wondering how low it will drop. Not on drugs either, but Hmm, I'm told the profits are attractive. Gives food for thought, must ask my accountant how to go about cliaming time in jail as a tax deduction.

[limegreen]

Phaedrus is the Master of the Trend, so I think the exact reasons are better left to him to explain. However, in my limited experience, I've been surprised how often they work, and they certain limit the number of lines, otherwise you could draw one between more or less any two dips/peaks. And functionality is not a bad criteria in addition to theoretical criteria for making rules.

As an aside, it occurs to me that perhaps what we are seeing is WHS settling into a trading range. Time will tell, however, assuming that it find support at around $3.50 and resistance at $4.50, it may be that the price could remain marooned in this zone for a long time. Just a little forward speculation.

[belgarion]

There seems to be lots of desire for Ph to show trends. [}:)]

He has.

It's fundie time, not TA time. WHS management has said what they are going to deliver to last annoucement.

The big question is, whats in the fine print! ;)

The fine print will decide the sp come annoucement.

Enjoy [}:)]

[winner69]

H1 earnings top end of expectations

Soothing positive words from Ian and all will be OK ... and the shareprice will go up strongly today ... and tomorrow

[kiwikauri]

WHS

14/03/2005

HALFYR



REL: 0846 HRS The Warehouse Group Limited



HALFYR: WHS: HY TO 30/01/2005 $53.881M ($55.456M) -2.8% DIV 10.5 CPS



Preliminary Financial Statements



HY TO 30/01/2005 $53.881M ($55.456M) -2.8% DIV 10.5CPS



The Warehouse Group Limited



For Half-Year Year Ended 30.1.05



This report has been prepared in a manner which complies with generally

accepted accounting practice and gives a true and fair view of the matters to

which the report relates and is based on unaudited accounts.



CONSOLIDATED OPERATING STATEMENT



Total operating revenue: ($000)

Trading revenue 1,214,459 Down 2.3% 1,243,329

Other revenue 10,339 7,082

Total operating revenue 1,224,798 1,250,411



OPERATING SURPLUS BEFORE TAX: 81,890 82,615



Less tax on operating profit: 28,006 27,138



OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX BUT BEFORE MINORITY INTERESTS:

53,884 Down 2.9% 55,477

Extraordinary items after tax - -

Unrealised net change in value of investment properties

- -

Less minority interests: 3 21



OPERATING SURPLUS AFTER TAX ATTRIBUTABLE TO MEMBERS OF LISTED ISSUER:

53,881 Down 2.8% 55,456



Earnings per share: 17.6cps ; 18.2 cps



Interim Dividend: 10.5 cps

Record Date: 15/4/2005.

Date Payable: 26/4/2005

Imputation tax credit on latest dividend: 5.1716 cps



Management discussion and analysis:



PROFIT AND DIVIDEND

- Net profit after tax: $53.9m, down 2.8%.

- Dividend 10.5 cents per share, unchanged from last year

- Dividend entitlement date 15 April 2005, dividend payment date 26

April 2005.



GROUP FINANCIAL SUMMARY: H1 FY05 v H1 FY04

- Sales revenue down 2.3% to $1,214m.

- EBITDA down 0.5% to $122m.

- EBIT up 1.8% to $92m.

- NPAT down 2.8% to $53.9m.

- Operating cash-flows up 48.4% to $73m.

- EPS down 3.3% at 17.6 cps.



INTERPRETATION OF THE GROUP H1 FY05 RESULT

- Mixed results across the Group. Solid operating earnings improvement

of $18.3m from Yellow Sheds largely offset by operating earnings contraction

in the Red Sheds, down $12.6m, and the Blue Sheds, down $3.7m.

- Weaker result in the Red Sheds reflects a combination of

disappointing performance in seasonal categories and impact on earnings from

negative same store sales.

- Yellow Sheds' strong earnings result demonstrates improved margin and

cost management.

- Poor operating result in the Blue Sheds was largely due the sales

shortfall from later "back to school" sales and the absence of computer

promotions during this period.



THE WAREHOUSE NEW ZEALAND LIMITED - "RED SHEDS"

RED SHEDS' OPERATING PERFORMANCE - H1 FY05 RESULT



- Sales up 0.5% to $818.5m, with same store sales down 2.2%.

- EBITA down 12.3% at $90.1m.

- EBITA margin of 11.0% down 161bp.



KEY ELEMENTS OF THE RED SHEDS' RESULT

- Customers continue to benefit from lower prices. Deflationary impact

continues to affect key categories such as apparel and footwear category. In

H1 FY05 this category had a 6.1% increase in units sold, however price

deflation of 10.1% resulted in an overall 4.6% reduction in sales revenue

compared with H1 FY04.

- Improved stock-flow management resulted in an 18.7% reduction in

store stock-on-hand at the H1 FY05 compared with H1 FY04 despite a 10.1%

increase in footprint. This represented a $13.5m improvement in working

capital.

- Disappointing performance in seasonal categories such as apparel,

sporting goods, toys and gardening impacted sales.

- Solid uplift in sales in

[Gryffyn]

Ouch

[winner69]

Nothing new in all this but confirmation of how badly the Red Sheds were doing - operating earnings down $12.6m.

And the Blue Sheds down $3.7m means NZ a disaster.

But then we all knew that anyway

So who would have thought that it now comes down to the WHS being a turn around story ... how the mighty have fallen.

And suppose many will have faith in Ians ability to turn the Titanic around

[johna]

Well, I actually thought it looked prety positive. The long awaited Australian turn around seems to be happenning. I would be far more relaxed about their ability to sort NZ, now that Aus is coming right.

The market seems to rate them up today....

[kura]

Market liked it, but killed my enthusiasim for a bargain. (Staying out)

[Halebop]

That is ugly. Much improved losses (but still losses) from OZ. Heavily weighed down by some less than average performances back home in NZ.

The market is simply out of its gourd to mark the price up.

[belgarion]

Quite Ridiculous! Way over priced!

As at now only 76,000 shares traded against a daily average of over 500,000. Sure the result was pretty well telegraphed before hand but, man alive, why is this stock so highly valued? It really can't justify it's current shareprice on earnings, both current and near-term. Yields are stupid too.

I suspect some of the big players will move soon. Something tells me it won't be pretty.

THE KING says ven stop buying it BEL and while your at tell the rest of the KIWI~s.. [^][^]

[Gryffyn]

short selling options look good at the moment

THE KING says you First Gryffyn I will hold your watch and wallet in the mean TIME.. [^][^]

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by johna

.... The market seems to rate them up today....



The positive spin hasn't done much to the shareprice ,,, that bit of steam the other day didn't last long

I wonder how deep the troubles are in the Red Sheds .... huge increase in footprint over the last year ... but H204 operating earnings down $4M on previous year and then the next half year H105 operating earnings down $12M .... seems like the trend backwards is accelerating to me.

THE KING says hope you have a good Easter 69 sure and BUY your EGGS at WHS as they have a very BIG supply,, by the way any body know where you can BUY a CHEEP WHS SHARE.. [^][^]

[Gryffyn]

I think WHS Stationery has affordable dictionaries that you might consider kingi.

THE KING says come Gryffyn own up DID you short WHS.. [^][^]

[winner69]

Oh dear

Feb has come and gone and even though the action Capitalist predicted happened taking the price to near 440 it seems that run is all over ...

... and everybody seems to have given up waiting for the Walmart bid to come ...

... and Phaedrus's chart starting to look shakey again ... is 365 below that long term down trend line?

Realisation that the troubles in NZ are deeper than first thought and that recovery is some way off ... after heaps of more capex .... and stock writeoffs or more margin pressure to come.

Read Halebops analysis on another thread ... good stuff.

But hsitory is history and the past is behind them ... it is a new ball game now as WHS try to reinvent themselves as something else

Change don't come overnight

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by winner69

... and Phaedrus's chart starting to look shakey again ... is 365 below that long term down trend line?



I've just had a bit of a look. The price action is back under the old (broken) downtrend. However, at the moment, it looks like WHS has settled into a trading range. The OBV is pretty negative the moment. A drop below $3.50 would be required to reignite the possibility of a downtrend. Likewise a break above $4.40 might be some sign of positive recovery. $4.40 would also see it break about a 365 day MA, which would also suggest some sort of recovery. Not a happy picture.

[belgarion]

Very interesting indeed ... See Morgan Stanley notice on the 28th April.

One also notes that $3.90 odd has been the 100 day MA flatline for the last few months ...

Me smells a story at least ... but still see $3.77 as too rich. That said may be some pennies to be picked up trading around $3.90.

Thoughts?

[belgarion]

Anyone? Winner? (Oh well I guess we're all doing our own thang ... [}:)])

[warthog]

quote:Originally posted by MPC

Thanks Phaedrus for an excellent chart. Hope the support holds, I want a decent rise then I am leaving this stock forever. Better opportunies elsewhere.

Cheers,
MPC


Just reading through old posts and saw this, so couple of comments.

There isn't much place in the market for hope if you want to protect and build your capital.

The other thought which came to mind was that you appeared to be wanting the market to "give" you a rise so you could get out of this stock. I suppose you could hope for such events, and on occasion maybe even experience them, but the smart investor never assumes that the market will give them anything. Indeed, hanging out for an acceptable exit price may blind you to the need to exit a particular investment as a bad play.

These are just my thoughts and are intended to be constructive criticism.

[lucky]

WHS was picked on tele this-morning as a good buy having potential across the ditch as the main turn around.

[belgarion]

Not a 'lucky' stock today ... down to 3.50 ... getting closer to my target range but still a long way to go ... when the bigger volumes trade I reckon we'll have a 'value mark' to discuss ... [}:)] <<<< Very Evil Grin.

[halcyon9]

Belg, you are such a loser

still giving the ;)

when you have been out of the BEST NZX rise in 30 years





lets sell down from 2002! loser

wip your ass at every turn blowhard

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by lucky

WHS was picked on tele this-morning as a good buy having potential across the ditch as the main turn around.


Bot retail sales are pretty flat in Aust according to the stats

So WHS has a superior offer and is taking the market by storm ... increasing share and all that

THE KING says meanwhile back at Gosford NSW. WHS has a new shop twice the size of the last with full page adds to boot and to just look at the situation and you would this mob is going great GUNS.. [^][^]

The King is this the same as your view of BGR through rose coloured glasses.

Big E read it again did not recomend this stock at all far from it just told about GOSFORD..[^][^]

KING. Yes that was what I asked were you using the same rose coloured glasses to look at Gosford as you view BGR with

[Shareloser]

Down to a low 3.40 today...
See any support at 3.20?

Big E explain my view on BGR.. [^][^][^]

[Mr D C]

WHS still looks a bit over priced, with little growth in NZ and AU retail not looking to hot P/E probably needs re-rating to reflect little growth in near future. with FY profit range of 66-71m, price of 3.20 not unreasonable - P/E to around 14/15 - thoughts

[nelehdine]

PE of 14-15 for a retailer struggling to tread water ... pretty generous ... would have thought 10 would be reasonable value ... say $2.40-$2.50

THE KING your view of BGR has been and still is overoptimistic over inflated. Will not see or hear anything against it even though shareprice has declined dramatically. This is the question are you looking at warehouse Gosford with the same tainted vision.

NO<NO<NO< and not mention BGR you DID..[^][^][^]

King but you are allways mentioning BGR and after your postings on that I am wondering if you use the same set of spectacles all the time or are you just plain blind. Or do you allways have the pair of spectacles you specially bought to make Mrs King look like Marilyn Monroe on every time you look at BGR

[belgarion]

H9 (you fagot!)

... Watch this space. I am lining up.

... Will advise when Im buying for either ...

1) small 'toe in the water stuff'
2) medium hold stuff
3) big buys (000,000) for short term

Watch closely my pathetic little friend ... learn something ;)

BTW Perhaps you would like to check the '2002' and the other garbage you have on your byline. It is all is b.s. that only your rabid mind would consider relevant ... Most of us know you for a obsessed moron but some may be confused ... (Public service anouncment :)).

kr. Belgarion.

[halcyon9]

4000+ posts and I`m still waitin to learn "something" from you [xx(]



keep on ;););););)`in blowhard.


I see the DOW has been really struggling lately:D:D:D




advice, just light the fuse belgor

[halcyon9]

My Byline 2002??? mostly late 2004[:0]

there you go again, lying to the masses[:p]



It is relevant, you lie, YOU get BUSTED everytime...cos you`re a simple little clod.


I`ll just keep it there so you can stay just inside that reality line.


BTW, WHS, since it is a WHS thread...C9 called this one years ago down down down. LEGEND call against severe WHS STer fever:D:D:D:D:D:D:D.
Those were the days

Fowl MOUTH BIG E THE KING does not wear glasses at all,, and Mrs KING is DEAD.. [^]

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by halcyon9


I see the DOW has been really struggling lately:D:D:D


http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Edji&t=6m&l=on&z=l&q=l&p=m20%2Cm50%2Cm100%2Cb&a=ss%2Cvm&c=

I take it the laughter is of the manicical kind? Downward tilts in the 100 day moving averges are generally not a good sign. Niether are big volumes on falling days and light volumes on rising days.

You really are a deluded idiot h9/c9

[halcyon9]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

I take it the laughter is of the manicical kind? Downward tilts in the 100 day moving averges are generally not a good sign. Niether are big volumes on falling days and light volumes on rising days.

You really are a deluded idiot h9/c9




I can`t answer that question because I`m not sure I`ve ever seen that word.:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

Now that`s a "maniacal" laugh AT YOU clodboy[|)]:([xx(]






[^]

KING maybe that is the problem you are to vain to wear glasses It is amazing what a good pair of spectacles can do when researching stocks or looking round warehouse stores

THICK brick Norman z rogers dont need glasses and dont BUY Warehouse shares you proberly a HOLDER and wont tell the members..[^]

The King I have been anti this stock longer than I have been anti BGR and after your attachment and praise of BGR now have no respect for anything you say. You either need spectacles, are blind or just crazzy.

[winner69]

Quarterly sales out today but damage has been done for the year

Will be interesting to see if sales growth has been picking up ... all that additional footprint has to do something for the topline or why put it on the ground

There was a program on the Reject Shop in Aust on Aust TV yesterday ... sort of saying theying are beating the Warehouse easily ... and then there was this analyst guru who suggested that it was only a matter of time before they quit Aust ... can't keep losing money forever

If the tea lady has been spouting off again sales can't be too good with last weeks price movement ... but they can't be that bad can they?

[Paper Tiger]

"THE WAREHOUSE GROUP THIRD QUARTER SALES FLAT"


quote:
OUTLOOK

Mr Morrice said, "We expect the group to be well-placed as increasing
pressures on consumers generated by rising fuel costs and increased mortgage
payments hit the monthly household budget."

The Warehouse Group Limited expects its full year earnings to be in line with
the earnings guidance issued in January 2005.


Grasp that straw!

[trendy]

How can they be so positive with negative sales growth [?] No mention of risk from pending Yuan revaluation upwards making their Chinese imported goods more expensive. After the latest news on the housing market continuing to boom in NZ the RBNZ will surely increase i-rates once again..all bad for the consumer and ultimately WHS. So much for expansion in Aussie store numbers have gone down with another store closing over there. I would bet that WHS is heading sub $3.00 very soon. GET OUT NOW!

WHS
09/05/2005
QUARTER

REL: 0907 HRS The Warehouse Group Limited

QUARTER: WHS: The Warehouse Group Third Quarter Sales Flat

THE WAREHOUSE GROUP THIRD QUARTER SALES FLAT

- Strategy is to offer NZ's best bargains every day -

Auckland, 9th May 2005 - The Directors of The Warehouse Group Limited
reported sales in the third quarter of $489 million, down 0.9% on the
corresponding period last year.

Group sales year to date were $1.703 billion, also down 0.9% for the
corresponding period. Eliminating the Australian exchange rate impact, Group
sales would have been 0.4% ahead of last year.

"The business has embarked on a long-term transition to its offer and
format," said Chairman Keith Smith. "Given our trading position at the end of
the third quarter, and assuming no change to current trading conditions, we
remain on track to achieve our earnings guidance," he said.

THE WAREHOUSE NEW ZEALAND

The Warehouse New Zealand sales at $328 million showed a 0.9% increase on the
comparative period, bringing year to date sales to $1.146 billion, up 1.7%.

The number of stores increased by five to 85 over a 12-month period. New
store roll-out was a contributing factor to the sales increase, as same store
sales were down 2.5%.

Strong growth continued in home entertainment and electronics, but the slow
start to winter sales in apparel and winter seasonal products, as well as a
disappointing Easter, contributed to the sales result for the quarter.

Group Chief Executive, Ian Morrice said, "We are still in the early phases of
the implementation of our strategy announced in March to improve our customer
offer, and we are making good progress. As customers start to see the
benefits of lower prices all the time, we expect they will shop at The
Warehouse even more often."

During April, the Price Rollback programme was launched. In the first few
weeks, The Warehouse has reduced the price of over 1000 products to be New
Zealand's lowest prices. More products will be added to the Price Rollback
list every week.

"New Zealanders see through weekend sales and one-off discounts," Mr Morrice
said. "We are now reducing prices across our range every day through Price
Rollback, and our customers are noticing the difference."

As well as driving price leadership, The Warehouse is also focused on
improving its future product offer and strengthening relationships with its
supplier community.

Mr Morrice said, "The strategic supplier management programme launched in
February is making good progress in re-establishing our competitive sourcing
advantage."

During the quarter, The Warehouse increased its focus on store display
standards. Mr Morrice said, "Although this is only a small step towards
making our stores easier to shop, we have received very positive customer
feedback."

The Warehouse's store portfolio will continue to be improved with the opening
of six replacement stores before Christmas 2005. The replacement stores at
Hamilton Central, Te Rapa (Hamilton), Palmerston North, Upper Hutt, Lower
Hutt, and Riccarton (Christchurch) will add more than 29,000 square metres of
retail space.

THE WAREHOUSE AUSTRALIA

In Australian dollars, The Warehouse Australia sales at A$100 million were
down 3% on the corresponding period, and at A$377 million, down 2.6% year to
date.

Australian store numbers declined by one, to 124 in the 12-month period. Same
store sales were down 4.9% for the quarter.

"Third quarter sales in Austr

[Bling_Bling]

I noitced that Kmart is starting to quietly expand and opened up a few new stores.

IS that true Bling2 where abouts what SIZE.. [^]

[Bling_Bling]

Noticed a large Kmart just opened up in Manukau, next to Bunnings Warehouse.

[donnie]

Some retail analyst in aussie are predicting that the WHS will leave Australia within the next 2 years, I wonder how right they'll be.

[halcyon9]

look at the size of the Aussie info;)

the major problems over there...and nothing to offer at all.


SSS -4.9%[xx(]

acceleration in lost sales from -2.6% Year to date

to -3% lastest 1/4.......or 15%! down.







well, the market hasn`t fully priced it in has it

another $21,000,000 off its market cap...add that to its $1,200,000,000 losses over the last 3 years and ask how much has Aussie REALLY cost.

This WAS a $2.2b company...by the end of this week, it will be under $1b


bye bye $$$$$$$$$$$$

and worse still is folks like Bungo66 still act like emus.

[Matt_b]

WHS bottomed out or do you think they will drop further. Im keen to get some once they have bottomed out

[Lawso]

Hey Matt. You're probably too young to have heard Mr Punch's famous advice to those thinking of getting married: "DON'T".
It's also good advice to those thinking of buying WHS.

[halcyon9]

PE still 17.3

Matt, no profit growth, negative sales growth, aussie still sick

with an outlook like that I`d say that you need not worry about WHS this year.


consolidation still to come...

that could be 6 months alone.




look elsewhere until picture becomes clearer...plenty of time.

[KJ]

C9-absolutely correct.WHS does not warrant a PE above 10-12.I think that HLG has a PE in the 10-12 range.Why would WHS still have a premium?
Matt-have a look at WHS's chart.

[Matt_b]

cheers guys.
Im a newbie. haha
But do you have any tip for good shares to go for as i have some extra cash in the bank that i want to invest. Or do you think the bank is the best place for it at the moment.

cheers

[nelehdine]

Definetly do not buy any WHS with your spare cash !! At the moment keep it in the bank ... too much %^*& hitting the fan. When the fuss dies down 3 stocks you might look at at current prices

AIA,FBU and SKC

[Bling_Bling]

Matt, do your homework before you part with your hard earn cash. Keep with the blue chips till your have been through hard knocks.

[winner69]

The tea lady was right - sales were pretty disasterous - the giant at best is slumbering along and in spite of the protestations coming forth is there really hope for a few years.

So guidance remains unchanged - ie earnings between $66-$71M. In view of the latest sales most likely nearer the $66M (say 22 cents/share)

Even at 344 this is 15-16 times future earnings.

Even HBY has been rerated down to 10-12 times earnings ... that sort of rating would push the WHS shareprice down to 220-250

SURELY NOT!

But then most NZ investors are prepared to take plenty of risk so the hefty risk premium will remain and 330 odd will likely provide some solid support

Winner69 yes that $2.20 To $2.50 would be right & maybe a tad high if you allow for further sales Drops. Don't tell Kingy he was pushing it's aussie prospects. I think he finally has got dementia. But as you say most will not see it as their sharemarket darling could not crash like this.

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA
Or do you allways have the pair of spectacles you specially bought to make Mrs King look like Marilyn Monroe on every time you look at BGR


THICK brick norman z rogers never ever said BUY WHS tell me again P R I C K about my WIFE..[^]

[winner69]

Didn't go down much today

Looking at the Red Sheds sales it appears as if full years sales will be about $1.505 million.

The growth in the Red Sheds over the last 3 years would then be 6%pa - even allowing for this years pathetic 2%.

Red Sheds the driver of WHS profitability - 6%pa sales growth with declinging margins over 3 years ... AND SOME STILL CALL THIS A GROWTH COMPANY.

New strategy and all that but hard to see sales growth being much more than this

A PE of 15-16 still ... who's kidding who

[Halebop]

I'd be happy with 6% annual sales growth if it didn't require a lot of investment.

Red Sheds turned over $1,261m in 2002 on a footprint of 330,842 sq.mtrs

If they hit $1,505m in 2005 and if we assume a footprint around 420,000 sq.mtrs (418,370 at the interim result) the numbers just look ugly.

19.4% revenue growth versus a 27% growth in store size. Factor in around 8% inflation for the period and real growth is slashed to 11.4% or so.

I'm picking some of those brokers who were suggesting WHS as a buy just a short while ago don't know a hell of a lot about retail (or math!).

On the upside a future NZ$ devaluation should boost absolute margins. Ian Morrice also mentioned beefing up their merchandising (in-store as opposed to sourcing) which is the first time I've heard a WHS staffer come close to conceding how awful their sheds look. These are positive signs although will take time to flow through (and waiting for the dollar to drop is not exactly a controllable event).

If some value was restored in Australia and micro management rather than sexy capex became dejour in NZ then intrinsically WHS would be worth north of $4.00. On current results I wouldn't give them more than $2.70 and wouldn't consider buying above the low $2.00's.

[Bling_Bling]

WHS looking to expand further in Aussie.

The shareholders will not like that. Price to come under further pressure?

[trendy]

opps $3.20 not long now and sub $3.00

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Halebop

I'd be happy with 6% annual sales growth if it didn't require a lot of investment.




Halebop - it is amazing the level of capex WHS spends year after year.

Nearly every year capex is greater than the operating cashflows generated ... and yet they continue to pay out dividends

Over the past four years operating cash flows have been $346. Capex has been $322M and they forked out another $95M in cash to buy the non physical assets of the Australia operations.

Free cashflow over the last 4 years has been a negative $72M but being a generous crowd have paid dividends of $177M

How funded ... increase debt by $260M

Bit scary really when all this has produced relatively meagre sales growth over that time and the bottom line not much different.

Investing for the future some may say but future capex forecasts are also well over $100M pa ... whatever putting more sq metres on the ground and doing up/relocating stores seems to be an ongoing costly exercise .... with no guarantee of commensurate sales growth

[trendy]

Growth opportunities must be promising if staff are selling their own stock - not.

Disclosure notice
Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests
(Section 19T, Securities Markets Act 1988)

A. Disclosure obligation (tick box to note which disclosure obligation applies)

Ongoing disclosure (complete Parts A, B, C, E, F and G of this notice)

B. Preliminary
1. Name John Journee
2. NZX company code of issuer WHS
Name of issuer The Warehouse Group Limited
3. Name of related body corporate (if applicable)
4. Position you hold in the issuer Business development
5. Date of this disclosure notice 11-May-05

C. Nature of relevant interest Relevant Interest 1
6. Name of registered holder(s) of security (as required by regulation 6A(b) or regulation 7(b)) JWM Journee Trust
7. Class and type of security (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8) Ordinary shares
8. Nature of relevant interest in security (as required by regulation 6A (a) or regulation 7(a)) Beneficial interest

D.

E. Transaction (for ongoing disclosure)
10. Date of last disclosure (as required by regulation 13) 3-May-04
11. Date(s) of acquisition(s) or disposal(s) (as required by regulation 9) 3-May-05
12. Number of transactions (as required by regulation 12(2), if applicable) 1
13. Nature or type of transaction (as required by regulation 11(1)(a)) Disposal
14. Consideration (as required by regulation 10) $292,000
15. Number of securities held prior, set out by class and type (as required by regulation 8) 200,000
16. Number of securities subject to acquisition or disposal (as required by regulation 11(1)(b)) -80,000

F. Extent of relevant interest
17. Number of securities held now, set out by class and type (as required by regulation 6B or regulation 8) 120,000

Signature (as required by regulation 14)

[Paper Tiger]

yes, and he is in business development.

[trendy]

See sellers details straight off the WHS website below. He should know "what's going or going to go down" in the company ;)

John Journee
General Manager - Commercial Development
John Journee rejoined the Company in June 2003, and is responsible for developing key commercial opportunities for the business, following two and a half years working in Britain. When he left The Warehouse in 2000, he was the company's New Zealand National Merchandising Manager for New Zealand.

John had been with a United Kingdom consultancy where he conducted new business strategy consulting to European and American retailers including Tesco, Royal Ahold, Carrefour, Wal-Mart, Sainsbury's and Building Depot.

He has more than twenty years of retail experience, including ten years with The Warehouse holding senior management positions in merchandising, marketing and operations.

[TerryA]

>>He should know "what's going or going to go down" in the company<<

If it is that bad why wouldn't he sell his total holdings or is he constrained by the issue terms ?

[trendy]

That I don't know maybe he needed some cash for the bach at the Mount. But do note that he sold down slightly more than 1/3 of his holding.

It's never a good sign when insiders are selling down, in the US it is seen as negative.

[winner69]

"Third quarter sales in Australia were within expectations ....." said Morrice

But heck they were down 3% (in A$)

Coles have just reported that last quarter Target sales are up nearly 7% and Kmart sales up 4%.

Last month Woolwaorths said Big W sales were up 11%

The man from the Reject Shop said on TV the other night sales were pretty solid

SO IN AUSTRALIA EVERYBODY SEEMS TO BE GROWING EXCEPT THE WAREHOUSE

But as long as the losses reduce it is a good story ... yeah right

[patsy]

The new advertising campaign "Price Rollback" is one of the least brand-building advertising campaigns that I've ver seen from a big business - bland, soft-hitting... unbelivable from a street fighting brand.

PATSY looks like they have copied off Woolworths & Big W they have been using it for years. IN Australia.

[winner69]

So it's not original then ... so much for innovation to get them out of the crap

[Bling_Bling]

quote:Originally posted by patsy

The new advertising campaign "Price Rollback" is one of the least brand-building advertising campaigns that I've ver seen from a big business - bland, soft-hitting... unbelivable from a street fighting brand.


What is Price Rollback? If I dont know what it is then how will the average Joe public know what it is? Stupid advertising. Also, going into the WHS stores Bling notice nothing has changed, still the same.

WHS market Cap is now below $1 billion.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by Bling_Bling
What is Price Rollback? If I dont know what it is then how will the average Joe public know what it is?


Bling. I think it's fairly safe to infer that Joe Public watches more television than you. Either that or you surf during adbreaks, as lectures on Price Rollback are fairly unavoidable.

Incidentally, the thing which irks me most about Price Rollback is that very frequently, they're pretty lousy discounts. I think I'd rather see loss-leaders, than a subtle drop in their standard price...

[trendy]

Looks like the low cost model like Walmart and The Warehouse are not doing well in the currenr market environment.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/05/12/news/fortune500/retail_uptick/index.htm

[belgarion]

One notes another insider dropping a bundle 80k out of 200k ... not a good look.

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by halcyon9

look at the size of the Aussie info;)
the major problems over there...and nothing to offer at all.
SSS -4.9%[xx(]
acceleration in lost sales from -2.6% Year to date
to -3% lastest 1/4.......or 15%! down.

well, the market hasn`t fully priced it in has it
another $21,000,000 off its market cap...add that to its $1,200,000,000 losses over the last 3 years and ask how much has Aussie REALLY cost.

This WAS a $2.2b company...by the end of this week, it will be under $1b

bye bye $$$$$$$$$$$$

and worse still is folks like Bungo66 still act like emus.





well, that didn`t take long;)

another $80,000,000 plus off the market cap this week alone!!!


started week at $1.030b

will finish week under $.95b




BITE ME

[K9]

and agree "price rollback"

is annoying, meaningless and lame.


a bit like belgon really:D

[Mr D C]

Only another $1.00 for the SP to come down and will become a dividend play

[kura]

Gee, only a few months ago was reading brokers research report (Macquarie) valueing WHS in the low $5 range. To my knowledge there has been no adverse news to change that, sure while results were sick, they were in line with expectations.
Must be hitting bottom soon ?
Disc: None

Will they become BIG W stores on first of July

[Halebop]

Kura if you do the math its really hard to work back to $5.00. It requires too many assumptions on growth in NZ and value in Australia that are too hard to confirm right now.

[winner69]

Interesting that in WHS presentations they acknowledge the changing retail landscape and that there competitors now include the likes of hardware big box retailers like Bunnings and Mitre 10

The latest retail sales figures suggest that indeed Bunnings and Mitre 10 are serious threats to the Red Sheds

Overall reatil sales for the 12 months to March were 6.9% up on a year ago.

The Department Stores sector only increased by 3.6% ... significantly lower than the overall growth in retail sales

But the Hardware Stores sector growth was 11.1% ... a sector that has done very well and far better than Department Stores.

There appaers to be about 17 of these big Mitre 10 Mega and Bunnings big boxes concepts out there.

Going through the new Mitre 10 Mega in Petone far better offer in hardware / homewares / decorating things than the Red Sheds and just as cheap. They are more than your old hardware shop.

I feel that these hardware big boxs are, and will continue to do so, hurting the red Sheds ... real competition for WHS indeed.

[patsy]

quote:Originally posted by kura

Gee, only a few months ago was reading brokers research report (Macquarie) valueing WHS in the low $5 range. To my knowledge there has been no adverse news to change that, sure while results were sick, they were in line with expectations.
Must be hitting bottom soon ?
Disc: None


One hing that is NOT in line with expectations is the massive resignations/turnover of key managers across the group... if solid management is a key indicator of long term performance (as per Buffet's tenets) then WHS is failing on that front. The media is focusing on the new CEO's expertise from UK businesses, but they do not portray the depletion of management knowledge on positions below him.

[patsy]

quote:Originally posted by K9

[quote]Originally posted by halcyon9


another $80,000,000 plus off the market cap this week alone!!!


started week at $1.030b

will finish week under $.95b



I wonder how long before Tyndall starts to offload big chunks to the likes of Wal Mart, Cosco, et al

[K9]

I am surprised no roaring WHS bulls didn`t come back onto this thread? in the last few sessions

just like clockwork;)

nice bounce up to the downtrend line...

and back down another $36m today with no ANN.




no touchy yet[xx(]

[Paper Tiger]

quote:
nice bounce up to the downtrend line...

Don't be silly, it's nowhere near reaching any existing downtrend line.
Each new "high" just creates a new steeper downtrend. [:0]

[roaddog]

bought some WHS today @$3.23&$3.25 be watching WHS over the next few weeks well be doing some more buying if it goes under $3 it looks like a buy to me dudes

long term it well pay off i think

[Placebo]

quote:Only another $1.00 for the SP to come down and will become a dividend play

How u figure this?

[Placebo]

quote:Only another $1.00 for the SP to come down and will become a dividend play

How u figure this?

[duncan macgregor]

ROADDOG, Big mistake buying in a down trend. Wait until it goes the other way. macdunk

[madmike]

walked into a walmart in canada yesterday and i thought i was at home at whs albany...same store mess...same inept staff....all we can hope is for walmart to takeover whs.....how about everyone emailing whs accounts to walmart hq!!!

[K9]

:D:D:D

WAL won`t be stupid enough to buy WHS with the NZD where it is now.


I`m still waiting for WHS to enter CHINA:D:D:D as BONGO once told me.


[:p]
it`s a long term ding

[Sky Tower]

Is this stock $2.00 yet? No - Ok Ill wait then :D

[K9]

PUNISHMENT -4.6%

another $45m down the tubes.


$2.50 looks likely this year...

$2, I doubt it Skytower

[Gryffyn]

Don't know, I think $3 will provide very stern resistance and would consider entering around there. Fair value is approaching for sure. At least they are actually changing tack a little unlike BGR who talked but no change apparent.

[K9]

Gryf, you could well be very right...I have had a long look at it this arvo...and $3 is probably very good buying.

I was having a closer look at say WHS vs RCL vs HLG.


Unless something positive happens we will have to go with the $66m guidance, lower end of range as they have indicated.

@ $3 (your buy price)
WHS would be valued at $916m

therefore we would get a projected forward PER of 13.8

if they do get close to the top end of $71m FWD PER = 12.9

interest cover still very high although has dropped to 9x (vs 12x)
debt/equity ratio at 41.3% (pretty good)

and at $3 the divvy would be 4.8% if maintained.


I am thinking that $2.50 is not realistic given WHS popularity and ability to improve significantly again on $1.7b in sales.

WHS- $66m / on sales $1.7b/ net 3.8%<------------:(
RCL- $52m / on sales $700m / net 7.4%
HLG- $18m / on sales of $200m / net 9%

IF they can achieve the same $75m as 2003, then this stock will look cheap on a PE of 12.2

agree, WHS is entering very interesting BUY territory at $3.



no rush, but worth watching closely

[Gryffyn]

Yes, a P/E under 15 and still a small yield makes for a more cautious buy. HLG have done very well but I doubt their ability to scale up much futher although I don't doubt that their good management may still see improved returns. RCL I know little about.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by duncan macgregor

ROADDOG, Big mistake buying in a down trend. Wait until it goes the other way. macdunk

MacD - and how exactly do you know it is going the other way as opposed to a dead-cat bounce? Direction is unimportant; fundamentals, value, analysis, macro-economics, management, currency etc are.

I'd rather buy at 3.10 and see it go to 3.00 rather than wait for it to bounce to 3.50 from 3.00. Its still the same company at all those prices!

[Gryffyn]

Sorry, direction can be importnat - but only in that movements should make one examine possible changes in the underlying factors to see if the movement is supported.

[winner69]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn

Sorry, direction can be importnat - but only in that movements should make one examine possible changes in the underlying factors to see if the movement is supported.


Good question Gryffyn ... are the reasons for the WHS shareprice falling supported by real things (wahtever real things are) are just fear or WHS followers just getting less risk adverse.

[Gryffyn]

That of course is the beauty of the market and why both fundamental(ists) and TA zealots can both prosper.

[K9]

We have to go back to FEB 99 to see support at $3

after that $2.80 and $2.50 are rough support areas.



but $3 and a forward PE of 13ish may prove a turnaround point.




If it gets back to old highs, I would have made 150% +:D:D

it`s a long term thang;)

[belgarion]

mongrel,

Comparing WHS (as you did in post above 26/05/2005) to HGL (who don't operate in Oz much) and Repco (who operate in a very different market) and concluding that $3.00 is fair for WHS isn't very sound analysis.

Further, both HGL and RCL have lower PEs and higher yeilds.

WHS has been pretty much 'dead in the water' with regards growth in NZ and going backwards in Oz, so their PE should justifiable be much lower ... Say 9.5 which would give a s.p. at about $2.00 ... and a yeild around 7% ... quite reasonable when compared to RCL and HGL.

Will it get that far? Quite rightly you point out that WHS is a NZX darling. You also point out the lure to silly investors who think a %150 profit could be on the cards if WHS returns to previous peaks.

I know of far too many small investors, who are basing their decision criteria on past performance and the lure of a %150 profits, that are buying now. It is sad to the huge number of small trades going though at current prices.

$2.50 is still on the cards and $2.00 is easily attainable if there's even a hint of a downgrade.

Suggesting $3.00 is a reasonable price is rediculous given the significant downside risks.

[Paper Tiger]

quote:
I know of far too many small investors, who are basing their decision criteria on past performance and the lure of a %150 profits, that are buying now. It is sad to the huge number of small trades going though at current prices

Any if there are enough of them prepared to put up their money then it doesn't matter how wrong we know they are, they are the market and so that is the true value.

[belgarion]

Very true PT, They are the market today ... [}:)]

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by K9
If it gets back to old highs, I would have made 150% +:D:D

it`s a long term thang;)




:D:D:D hook line and sinker idiot

you are so wounded, you`ld jump at anything...

except you have forgotten that I have been taking the Bongo pis for 3 years...since being an original WHS detractor in the $7s.


a little sarcasm, stupid!

a clod you are[B)]

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by K9

Gryf, you could well be very right...I have had a long look at it this arvo...and $3 is probably very good buying.

I was having a closer look at say WHS vs RCL vs HLG.


Unless something positive happens we will have to go with the $66m guidance, lower end of range as they have indicated.

@ $3 (your buy price)
WHS would be valued at $916m

therefore we would get a projected forward PER of 13.8

if they do get close to the top end of $71m FWD PER = 12.9

interest cover still very high although has dropped to 9x (vs 12x)
debt/equity ratio at 41.3% (pretty good)

and at $3 the divvy would be 4.8% if maintained.


I am thinking that $2.50 is not realistic given WHS popularity and ability to improve significantly again on $1.7b in sales.

WHS- $66m / on sales $1.7b/ net 3.8%<------------:(
RCL- $52m / on sales $700m / net 7.4%
HLG- $18m / on sales of $200m / net 9%

IF they can achieve the same $75m as 2003, then this stock will look cheap on a PE of 12.2

agree, WHS is entering very interesting BUY territory at $3.

no rush, but worth watching closely


Many have been 'taking the pis' about WHS's valuation. However, only dog excrement like you feel the need to rub others faces in it. Shame on you.

There were other, far more respected posters, who were posting warnings about WHS. You, however, a pathetic investor playing with trivial sums, thought it appropriate to abuse and ridicule rather than educate. Shame on you.

Shame on a worthless bit of dog excreement? I waste my breath.

However ...

Strangely enough though Dog Breath, it doesn't fit with the overall sentiment of your post ... [}:)]

Your words ...

I am thinking that $2.50 is not realistic given WHS popularity and ability to improve significantly again on $1.7b in sales.

Duck and dive all you like garbage eating mongrel. We have this one for eternity. We will see who it right ;)

In any event, it seems we will both be buying at the bottom ... [xx(]

[K9]

And If WHS reach a market cap of $610m as you suggest is fair at $2
then it will be the first time in 3 years I would have to take my hat off to you...


because so far, you have been wrong wrong wrong!!!

and my calls have been FAR more accurate. As I said, because of WHS size and ability to improve net margins with massive sales, and the market darling/brand factor.

I have revised my value up from $2.50 made ages ago. Your call of fair PE at 9.5 is quite frankly a joke.


I think my hat will be safe;) $2 NEVER

[K9]

Stick to the facts my wounded loser...

1. I was THE original member that went against WHS in the high $7s and got the flack from BONGO and Stolwyk.

2. I originally called WHS value at $2.50

3. I have recently upgraded my thoughts to $3 for reasons stated and say that it is very possible WHS will hold $3 and not fall to $2.50

4. 150% and "long term thang" are sarcasm idiot (you of all should know that, but I know the games you play)

5. I`m glad you have now called WHS $2 or deserves PE of 9.5.;)



[^]PERFECT

[belgarion]

quote:Originally posted by K9


1. I was THE original member that went against WHS in the high $7s and got the flack from BONGO and Stolwyk.

2. I originally called WHS value at $2.50


Delusional visions of grandeur ... No you were NOT. In either case. Try to get a grip on reality.

You really think you're somthing special dont you. We know you're not but keep trying to prove it ... most of us find it very amusing. And those of us who know your worth ... well ... we think either you need to see a shrink or you need a good smacking as all naughty boys need from time to time.

[K9]

:D:D:D why cut off the last three???



you ortta try smacking a 98kg southern man who still works out 4 days a weeks

try me[B)]

[belgarion]

Why cut off the last three? ... Geez you are stupid aren't you! I'll already posted ... but since 98 kg don't have a brain, I do it again.

3: Forward looking. You have your reasons. I disagree. Time will tell.

4: We agree that it is a throw away line. Saddly many will make judgments on past performance.

5: Yes I have called $2.00 as the possible bottom. I think 2.50 is more likely due to point 4.


With regards ...

you ortta try smacking a 98kg southern man who still works out 4 days a weeks


... You really are pathetic aren't you. (sigh!) When you grow up some ... we'll talk again.

[Lizard]

Friday night again? Can you two boys take it outside (off-topic?)
Thanks,
Mum :)

[belgarion]

LOL Lizard. :) Point taken. Have a good weekend.

[K9]

yeah, should grow up to 100kg by summer:D

thata the goal, while maintaining same body fat.



well, I agree you agree with points 3,4

we will call it settled

and have a good weekend yourself[:p]



HOWEVER [^] You called point 5 ..."$2 is easily attainable"

and now just within hours you change to "$2 is possible"




see how you discredit yourself

it`s sad Belg

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

mongrel,

$2.50 is still on the cards and $2.00 is easily attainable if there's even a hint of a downgrade.

Suggesting $3.00 is a reasonable price is rediculous given the significant downside risks.


only one month has past and WHS has hit $4...up 30% on a blue chip!

who`s the mongrel...:D:D:D

you are very very USELESS!!! Belgarion[:p][B)]:([|)]

K9 only you would call this a bluechip share now.

[Gryffyn]

quote:Originally posted by K9

PUNISHMENT -4.6%

another $45m down the tubes.


$2.50 looks likely this year...

$2, I doubt it Skytower

We all make mistakes don't we. Good on ya for making a call. Why not leave the crusading against posters to the sandpit.

[Gryffyn]

Anyone who bought before and held around $3 would be pretty. Sadly I was waiting for $3 or below :-(

[tinking]

Phaedrus,

Thank you for your very useful graphs and commentary.

You mentioned in one of your posts that insider trading often shows up on the graphs. Can you please elaborate on the signals to look out for when you are checking a stock for potential insider trading prior to an announcement?

From experience, I know that stock prices sometimes trickle upwards immediately prior to a big announcement that turns out to be positive - have always assumed this is due to insider trading activity.

Thanks in advance...

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by Gryffyn


quote:Originally posted by K9

PUNISHMENT -4.6%

another $45m down the tubes.


$2.50 looks likely this year...

$2, I doubt it Skytower

We all make mistakes don't we. Good on ya for making a call. Why not leave the crusading against posters to the sandpit.


If you check the thread thoroughly...

You will see that I changed my call for WHS to good buying at $3 at the time Belgarion said $2 was coming.

I was laughed at and am still laughing back at the timing.

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by K9

Stick to the facts my wounded loser...

1. I was THE original member that went against WHS in the high $7s and got the flack from BONGO and Stolwyk.

2. I originally called WHS value at $2.50

3. I have recently upgraded my thoughts to $3 for reasons stated and say that it is very possible WHS will hold $3 and not fall to $2.50

4. 150% and "long term thang" are sarcasm idiot (you of all should know that, but I know the games you play)

5. I`m glad you have now called WHS $2 or deserves PE of 9.5.;)



[^]PERFECT




[^]

[K9]

quote:Originally posted by belgarion

Shame on a worthless bit of dog excreement? I waste my breath.

However ...

Strangely enough though Dog Breath, it doesn't fit with the overall sentiment of your post ... [}:)]

Your words ...

I am thinking that $2.50 is not realistic given WHS popularity and ability to improve significantly again on $1.7b in sales.

Duck and dive all you like garbage eating mongrel. We have this one for eternity. We will see who it right ;)
In any event, it seems we will both be buying at the bottom ... [xx(]




Grff...as I was called "a garbage eating mongrel"


I will have a field day with this...and guess what!

You won't see Belgarion around here any more;)...spineless

[Halebop]

:queue Days of Our Lives soundtrack:

[Placebo]

More like Desperate Housewives if you ask me...

[K9]

really...they have that soundtrack!

Chorus: all the wallies that dislike but can't stay away from the drama [:p]

[Placebo]

Disc: Would have been harder on you if you had been a man

[K9]

like moths to the bulb


that last one has hit it twice...must be a real thicko:D

[Longtack]

Placebo Posted - 24/08/2005 : 1:57:50 PM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disc: Would have been harder on you if you had been a man

Bee atch!![:p]

[Placebo]

Harder K9, harder beeatch!!!

You need to read up:

School sends home how-to-smack pamphlets
24 August 2005
By ALEXANDRA BREMNER

A Panmure school has sent out a pamphlet with its latest school newsletter telling parents how to correctly spank their children.


Carey College, a private Christian school, has made the controversial move in response to Green MP Sue Bradford's anti-smacking bill.

Principal Michael Drake says the school has always supported parents' right to smack.

"We are helping parents raise children in a biblical way," Mr Drake says.

"It's balanced, it's nurturing, it's safe," he says of smacking or spanking a child.

"What is not acceptable is parents taking out their anger on kids."

Mr Drake says sending out the pamphlet is "nothing dreadful" nor illegal.

AdvertisementAdvertisementThe pamphlet, called A working definition of spanking - our home our castle, discusses the motivation, the aim, the objectives, the methods and the outcomes of smacking, including a how to smack a child guide. It was written by Family Integrity national director Craig Smith.

The school newsletter says the first steps have been taken to make the biblical practice of smacking illegal in New Zealand.

Ms Bradford's private members bill seeks to change section 59 in the Crimes Act - the reasonable force defence for caregivers facing charges for hitting a child.

Ms Bradford says she is shocked by the pamphlet.

"It's outrageous and slightly perverse," Ms Bradford says.

Ms Bradford says she is concerned at the suggestion to use a "stiff flexible rod" to spank a child and the statement "the key to spanking is LOVE".

"They are saying it is a positive thing to beat a child with an implement," she says.

Children's Commissioner Cindy Kiro says a school sending out information on how to correctly spank a child is misguided.

"It's irresponsible," Dr Kiro says.

"We know from international evidence that using that kind of physical punishment sends all the wrong messages," she says.

"It actually encourages bad behaviour. It doesn't discourage bad behaviour or encourage moral behaviour at all, quite the reverse.

"Parents should affirm things children do right, rather then physically punishing them for things they do wrong."

Dr Kiro says she has serious reservations about parents using physical discipline while describing it as an act of love.

"It sends out mixed messages," she says.

Dr Kiro says she will contact the school to discuss the issue.

Mr Smith says his motivation for writing the spanking guid was to dispel the misunderstanding of the institution of corporal correction or spanking.

"People talk about smacking, hitting, bashing as if they are the same thing. They're not," Mr Smith says.

He says he supports the Panmure school's decision to educate parents on smacking.

"Any effort to educate people about the issues, I applaud, as long as it is correct and accurate."