Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

[belgarion]

Wow! I think we can call that one a market crash! Down almost 5%. Great day for shorters who would have made a fortune! Clearly, anything american is well and truely out of favour.

[Entrep]

Except the USD

[belgarion]

THE CRASH IN CONTEXT: Stocks Are Still ~30% Overvalued (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-crash-in-context-stocks-are-still-30-overvalued-2011-8)

Problem with "normalised earnings" at this juncture is that it doesn't take account of the huge cash mountains many companies have. If you strip out these cash mountains from the sp on the basis that most will be paid out as divies or invested for growth the result is not 21x as suggested by the article but quite a bit lower.

[Hoop]

THE CRASH IN CONTEXT: Stocks Are Still ~30% Overvalued (http://www.businessinsider.com/the-crash-in-context-stocks-are-still-30-overvalued-2011-8)

Problem with "normalised earnings" at this juncture is that it doesn't take account of the huge cash mountains many companies have. If you strip out these cash mountains from the sp on the basis that most will be paid out as divies or invested for growth the result is not 21x as suggested by the article but quite a bit lower.

Hi Belg

That article is of amazingly poor quality from a guy with his market experience...

It should be noted that you can have a falling PE ratio and a rising shareprice...it happened with the Aords before 2008 and the S&P 500 since the crash.....so Henry of all people should not infer that a big drop in shareprice is needed to correct a overly high PE Ratio.

I certainly won't be praising him when (if) the shareprice falls...If it does fall and many analysis beleive it will, it will be for these reasons.

http://www.crestmontresearch.com/docs/Stock-PE-Report.pdf (19 pages)

[Hoop]

Had a bit of rare time so I watched 20 minutes of CNBC's Fast Money this morning.
Jeff Weiss a TA chartist who I haven't heard of before gave a informative interview.

approx Quote: "...The S&P 500 has suffered Technical damage and on the monthly chart it has broken its 17 month moving average. The S&P 500 needs to rise above 1220 or ideally 1250 and stay up above there for the rest of the month to repair this damage otherwise the future looks poor. The 17 monthly average breaks have only been wrong once in the last 23 years...."

He goes on to mention how the primary trend line and the S&R lines all meet at the 17 month MA break area ..interesting and spooky. (I haven't drawn these on the chart below)

I have drawn up a similar chart ( I added the secular bits )
There seems to be a break in 1998 on my chart but I didn't see it on his chart.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/agtoihr7n0klkmccv58q.png

[winner69]

Hi Belg

That article is of amazingly poor quality from a guy with his market experience...

Its a wonder that Henry hasn't called the S&P500 a LOS (load of ****e) .... that's what Mr Spitzer didn't like about him whwn he was making his calls on dot coms etc back in the hey day

His call on Amazon was spot on though

[dumbass]

Had a bit of rare time so I watched 20 minutes of CNBC's Fast Money this morning.
Jeff Weiss a TA chartist who I haven't heard of before gave a informative interview.

approx Quote: "...The S&P 500 has suffered Technical damage and on the monthly chart it has broken its 17 month moving average. The S&P 500 needs to rise above 1220 or ideally 1250 and stay up above there for the rest of the month to repair this damage otherwise the future looks poor. The 17 monthly average breaks have only been wrong once in the last 23 years...."

He goes on to mention how the primary trend line and the S&R lines all meet at the 17 month MA break area ..interesting and spooky. (I haven't drawn these on the chart below)

I have drawn up a similar chart ( I added the secular bits )
There seems to be a break in 1998 on my chart but I didn't see it on his chart.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/agtoihr7n0klkmccv58q.png

hi hoop , where is the primary trendline converging on 1220 , i think its a critical area of resistance going back multi year but i cant see a trendline anywhere near ?

[Hoop]

Hi Dumbass

Yeah I might've misquoted him..I only pricked up my ears and started to listen properly a few seconds after he started so maybe he said 1270 not 1220...Its possible the video is on the fast money site to verify.... but really.... only if you have the spare time to track it down...as I have mentioned the guts of his interview.

yeah the S&R and primary trendline was a bit higher at 1270...I changed the 17month SMA to WMA it made hardly any difference to the monthly chart but raised the level to 1259 ..so a lot closer..... maybe he was working with the 17Month WMA when he made that junction remark

Anyway here is a different perspective chart which highlights the converging lines and the total bearish break. This time I used a daily index as it highlights the exact break value..... the downside is a lot of extra index "noise".

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/osp9mdlyerxsijwa5c4u.png

[dumbass]

i found it hoop on the cnbc site , i hve no idea how he draws the trendline on the chart.
i suspect he just drawn it to give more strength to his argument, i cant see how he plots it at all .

[ananda77]

Market Update -data point 6 September 2011-

Market Internals:

VIX Close_31.8 Friday 02 September 2011 still indicating a nervous market

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend

VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...US markets closed Monday 5 September 2011 - SPX 500 futures continued the decline to the *1136 level - trading below or a Close below *1136 signals weakness with risks high for more downside to challenge current *1114 - potential to move lower to challenge the *1103 bullmarket level

...expectations are, the bullmarket to continue and intraday breaks below *1103 all the way down to the August 27 Low *1066 seen as a medium term buying opportunity

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_37 Tuesday 06 September 2011- hardly inspires confidence

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...for the time being, the market respected the *1136 support with an intraday Low *1140 - futures moving higher reaching out into resistance current *1178_*1185 - potential to move ahead reaching out into current *1220 based on *1168 holding as support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_33.38 Wednesday 07 September 2011- remains in the cautious/danger zone > 31_29.3
C-RSI-30 negative -7.1

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...no time wasted - the SPX 500 pushed through the current *1178_*1185 resistance into the Spetember 2 congestion High *1202 - potential to move ahead reaching out into current *1220 resistance based on current *1187 holding as support

...although market internals remain weak, the current rally has the potential for further upside based on S&P 500 versus % of S&P 500 Stocks > 50-D MA = 12.35 near extreme low levels

...however, there are risks that the September 2 congestion High *1202 caps the upside and the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 September 2011-

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...after SPX 500 futures managed to hold the *1187 support consolidating all day long yesterday, the September 2 congestion High *1202 capped the upside and the following impulsive sell-off just stopped short of the September 6 Low *1136

....the market now hit oversold but needs to hold the *1136/*1146 support range to manage another rally attempt into the *1168/*1178 resistance

...maket internals deteriorated with a VIX Close way above the 31 peace level - expectations are, the market will fail the *1136 support and push lower for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum - chances are, the market to stretch lower to the August 27 2010 High *1066 before turning bullish again

Kind Regards

[Entrep]

winner, dumbass, hoop - any new thoughts on the US markets?

cheers

[dumbass]

my feeling is that we are setting up for a rally to suck a few bulls in , target is the 1240 pivot.

this is really just a set up for a bigger short wave lower , i like to trade the counter trend rallies but with extreme caution, safer bet is to short this rally.


long from 1140 stop to break even

[ananda77]

Market Internals:

VIX Close_< 31 first cautious signal the market ready to continue the bull trend
VIX < 29.3 a strong positve for the market
VIX Close_38.59 12 September 2011- remains in the cautious/danger zone > 31_29.3

C-RSI-30 negative -8.66

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378 Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...holding the *1136/*1146 support range, the SPX 500 rallied into the *1168/*1178 resistance - further upside potential into the *1178 short term trendline resistance based on the September 12 Congestion High *1151 holding

...above trendline resistance *1178, upside potential carries the index int overhead resistance current *1235

...failing *1178, the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

my feeling is that we are setting up for a rally to suck a few bulls in , target is the 1240 pivot.

While you may be right, my feeling is that if the Obama plan to increase employment gains traction (and it should!), then it won't be a suckker rally.

[dumbass]

carefull belg that nearly makes you a sucker!

[Entrep]

A greek default seems inevitable now... along with many EU bank downgrades. The whole rally this morning on some Chinese buying bonds rumour seemed ridiculous.

[Toulouse - Luzern]

A greek default seems inevitable now... along with many EU bank downgrades. The whole rally this morning on some Chinese buying bonds rumour seemed ridiculous.

I agree the China story seems weak to me also to move world markets.


If this is the case in the absence of any other major developments US may be weaker tomorrow ...

[ananda77]

http://i53.tinypic.com/2qao01z.png

...the SPX 500 2yr/week: a bullish set-up above the June 17 2010 High *1133 - any violation of the key support signals weakness ahead - any Close below key support while price < 200-d MA_plus extreme bearish sentiment = extreme risk for violent price falls

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

carefull belg that nearly makes you a sucker!

Hands firmly in pockets ... :)

[Hoop]

winner, dumbass, hoop - any new thoughts on the US markets?

cheers
Hi Entrep
It seems we all have different views chartwise...eh.....who said drawing chart lines was easy:)

My chart below started off simple but I have managed to complicate it to reinforce my bearish view.

My easy answer is "It's Ugly.

The chart below shows that the small 1120 support has become an extremely important level...if it breaks you can kiss your investor arse goodbye.

My view is bearish because
....1120 is a weak support level it had a little influence during the bull correction in the June 2010 then August 2010 but nothing to speak of before that.

....When Bollinger Bands squeeze up (purple arrows) they indicate a change of trend momentum often a reverse trend

....The Volume shows a possible concave trend occurring indicating another increase in volume in the near future ,,,more chance it being a sell volume increase and especially so if the 1120 support fails.

....I normally don't get too hung up on primary trend lines breaking because they do during some bull market corrections...however the S&P 500 broke a support level level as well as followed the leaders ASX Europe Asia markets down.

....I added the 30yr treasury bonds as well ..the yield fall shows money flowing towards them (a perceived safe haven) This flow of money out of the Equity Markets causes those markets to lose momentum. The last time they were this low was late January 2009 during the last phase of the bear... the capitulation phase:(.

....S&P500 as well as many other indexes are technically broken. The S&P has to have a big climb to get out of this bear hole...Above the orange 1280 level....a big ask atm.

Chart got too cluttered to add more.

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/a2a7nuh0wdm5mbfulov9.png

[Financially dependant]

Hi Hoop, thanks for another great explanation of our current situation, I always value your posts....I am interested in why you call the 1120 support weak? With such high volume buying into the S&P at that level doesn't it give the support strength?? Always interested in your view (and anyone else who wants to chip in). Cheers FD.

[winner69]

PPT kicked in late yesterday by the looks of it

[Hoop]

Hi Hoop, thanks for another great explanation of our current situation, I always value your posts....I am interested in why you call the 1120 support weak? With such high volume buying into the S&P at that level doesn't it give the support strength?? Always interested in your view (and anyone else who wants to chip in). Cheers FD.
Hi FD

Yeah... testing support under very high distributional volume and succeeding (not breaking) does show strength.
A quick simple way to gauge how strong a S&R level is, is by looking back through history and notice how many successful tests and retests that level has had without breaking. Yes volume is a factor as well...The strength of S&R levels can wax and wane over the years so a high frequency of successful tests without breaking in a more recent period would make the investor perceive the S&R level to be stronger than if the tests were say 10 years ago.

My orginal thinking when writing my last post was that the 1120 support was reached during the final stages of the freefall event and the market was exhausted by the time 1120 was reached at it sat on this 1120 level for a few days exhausted (buyers = much lesser sellers). The successful retest of the 1120 10 days later was pleasing and gave a slim hope for the bullish investors that the bottom may have been reached (double bottom).

I had another look going back to when 1120 S&R level first appeared in April 1998 onwards...yeah I may have been a little harsh on calling it a weak support, it has had some successful tests and it does seem to be a somewhat stronger level in mid 2010 even though the 1120 resistance held under lower than average volume...OK lets call it a medium strength 1120 support and up the chances of a possible bottoming process...however the chart still looks just as ugly as before .

[ananda77]

Trader Update:

...with an intraday Low *1157, the market supported the September 12 Congestion High *1151 short term support and continued to rally into short term trendline resistance current *1175

...above current trendline resistance *1175, upside potential carries the index into overhead resistance current *1231 - watch out for violation of the current *1160 short term support

...failing *1175, the market turns bearish again - in that case, expect the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

im still feeling the market will grind higher from here in a corrective pattern ( lots of overlapping messy waves) before the market impulses lower .

looking at hoops chart if he changes the lower horizontal support line to a rising line it makes a channel ( bear flag) we will probably follow this up for a few

weeks in a 3 wave structure 1240 - 1260 then lower from here .

riding longs from a couple of days ago

[Financially dependant]

Hi FD

Yeah... testing support under very high distributional volume and succeeding (not breaking) does show strength.
A quick simple way to gauge how strong a S&R level is, is by looking back through history and notice how many successful tests and retests that level has had without breaking. Yes volume is a factor as well...The strength of S&R levels can wax and wane over the years so a high frequency of successful tests without breaking in a more recent period would make the investor perceive the S&R level to be stronger than if the tests were say 10 years ago.

My orginal thinking when writing my last post was that the 1120 support was reached during the final stages of the freefall event and the market was exhausted by the time 1120 was reached at it sat on this 1120 level for a few days exhausted (buyers = much lesser sellers). The successful retest of the 1120 10 days later was pleasing and gave a slim hope for the bullish investors that the bottom may have been reached (double bottom).

I had another look going back to when 1120 S&R level first appeared in April 1998 onwards...yeah I may have been a little harsh on calling it a weak support, it has had some successful tests and it does seem to be a somewhat stronger level in mid 2010 even though the 1120 resistance held under lower than average volume...OK lets call it a medium strength 1120 support and up the chances of a possible bottoming process...however the chart still looks just as ugly as before .

Thanks Hoop....agreed the chart does look ugly

[ananda77]

Trader Update:Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187

...the SPX 500 bounced off the *1160 support with an intraday Low *1163 and extending above the short term trendline current *1176 into the *1187/*1192 resistance cluster - but labouring

...watch for an imminent bear strike failing the *1187/*1192 resistance cluster with expectation, the September 6 Low *1136 to fly out the window, pushing the index for a second test of the bull level *1103 at a minimum

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Ben Inker, director of asset allocation at Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo, a Boston money manager, calculated what the damages would be if, say, yields on Treasury bonds went up just three percentage points, driving prices down. The answer: a 23.5 percent loss for the 10-year Treasury and a 40.7 percent loss for the 30-year bond.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/The-Risks-Lurking-in-Treasury-bloomberg-238930520.html;_ylt=AmfxApI797uK3DTjXJ8.9hS7YWsA;_ ylu=X3oDMTE2dTU5cmowBHBvcwMxMARzZWMDdG9wU3Rvcmllcw RzbGsDdGhlcmlza3NsdXJr?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=7&asset=&ccode=

Not a case of "if" - only "when" ...

[Hoop]

im still feeling the market will grind higher from here in a corrective pattern ( lots of overlapping messy waves) before the market impulses lower .

looking at hoops chart if he changes the lower horizontal support line to a rising line it makes a channel ( bear flag) we will probably follow this up for a few

weeks in a 3 wave structure 1240 - 1260 then lower from here .

riding longs from a couple of days ago

Sorry Dumbass... cant change it to a ascending rectangle channel / flag. Us chartists can only play with the cards the market deals to us....and in the S&P 500 case it is a bearish right angle ascending broadening event feature which will soon may change from a feature to a formation, still a bearish formation though which could continue for months..however for the optimists the news gets better as each day passes these event features such as the flags and pennants become formations thereby lessening the odds and delays the continuation downwards...Bad news is that this broadening developments is deemed bearish in a Bear market cycle and not so much so in a bull...sooooo... the million dollar question is... Is the S&P500 in a Bear Market Cycle? I think so, but others may and do disagree including some famous Guru's.

To look for confirmations on the possible which way the S&P500 could go in the next week or two ...We can compare charts with similar close proximity Equity Indexes such as the DOW for example ......This will make Dumbass's day ..yep..voila!!.. The DOW has a channel bear flag:D ( or a developing ascending rectangle bottom formation)

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/z1xkv8yx2enln478onj4.png

[dumbass]

im not sure what your looking at hoop , looks like a tradeable bear flag to me.

http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x107/joicey9999/sp500-3.jpg

[Hoop]

im not sure what your looking at hoop , looks like a tradeable bear flag to me.

Ahhh...I see our differences

You work off the lowest and highest and I work off closing day figures.
Now...you people can see how complicated TA can be ...if you ask 5 people to draw a simple trendline I betcha you will get 5 different lines :confused:

Who's right how's wrong? It not worth the argument.

The reason I use closing day figures on a daily chart is it lessens the "noise" ...and....when you go longer than a year you can't decipher Candlesticks or OHLC and daily charts revert to solid closing day lines anyway. Therefore I keep to the same trendline criteria discipline....for obvious reasons I do realise I can't do this on short term and very short term charts.

Working off weekly and monthly lessens the "noise" again for longer term analysis...but the criteria is different so its another chart discipline.

but...I will probably be at a disagreement with many short term traders on this method.

In defense to closing day highs notice on my post #1023 chart above my near horizontal bottom line is validated by 4 closing day touches + 2 lowest day lows... Dumbass your upward sloping bottom line isn't validated:p:)

Each to their own and its best to keep using the discipline that works best for you........and in most to nearly all cases the deduction got out of these slightly different patterns usually ends up with the same forecast

[ananda77]

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1202 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1187 - Exit Trade

...the SPX 500 respected short term support *1187 and extended its bounce off the September 12 Low *1136 into the August 21 Congestion High *1208 - short term support moves up to *1194

...potential for more upside into the August 31 Congestion High *1230/current overhead resistance *1235 - however, the index traded into short term oversold with momentum moving ahead of price - potential for a corrective move to affirm the *1183/*1178 support range

...the current rally remains on track above *1180 - failing the congestive clusters with a violation of the *1180 support signals high risk a bear strike is underway

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378


http://i56.tinypic.com/35cehk2.png
...that and a declining oil price ahead of overhead key resistances plus FOMC meeting next week - tighten up on hedging strategies

Kind Regards

[peat]

3612mind the gap.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 September 2011-

Hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 advance stalled overbought *1220 ahead of the August 31 Congestion High *1230. The consequent impulsive sell off violated short term *1194 support with an intraday Low *1188 so far. Risks are high for more downside to affirm the *1183/*1178 support range ahead of the FOMC outcome

...any violation of the *1180 support will strenghten the view that a bear strike is underway that will attempt to take out the September 6 Low *1136 with high risk to stretch lower to test the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 September 2011-

Hedged *1378

...the SPX 500 again rejected *1220, unable to lock in gains ahead of the FOMC outcome - never the less, above the weekly September 11 Close *1190, the index remains on track for more upside with the August 31 High *1231 as the next overhead target

...violating the weekly September 11 Close *1190, signals weakness ahead with downside potential targeting the September weekly Low *1182 support

...any violation of the *1180 support will strenghten the view that a bear strike is underway that will attempt to take out the September 6 Low *1136 with high risk to stretch lower to test the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

As The Shadow Banking System Imploded In Q2, Bernanke's Choice Has Been Made For Him
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shadow-banki...s-been-made-him (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/shadow-banking-system-imploded-q2-bernankes-choice-tomorrow-has-been-made-him)

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 September 2011-

Trader Update:

Hedged: *1378

...the SPX 500 got hammered through the *1190/*1180 supports - impulsive sell-off confirms the September 20 High *1220 as top

...short of a miracle (rigging the markets), immediate follow through lower would see a re-test of the September 6 Low *1136 - high risk to stretch lower to test the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

i still favour one more rally that will exceed 1220 top (will be a lot of short stops above 1220 ) , so i guess i believe in miracles otherwise we are down from here.

very interesting markets.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 September 2011-

...the SPX 500 *1066 target trendline in the 5yr weekly time frame (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com )

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1194 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1168

...the market immediately followed through lower after yesterday's romp and sliced through the September 6 Low *1136 support - currently stabilizing following an intraday test of the August 21 Low *1117

...the selling over the last two days has been exhaustive and the market is heavily oversold - however, a violation of the September 6 Low *1136 support indicates upticks should be capped by the September 22 Congestion High *1158 at a maximum

...failing the September 22 Congestion High *1158 signals high risk for more downside with the August 27 2010 High *1066 as target

Kind Regards

[peat]

the rising wedge definitely broke last night... its all on folks

[belgarion]

Yip ... its all on ... record low interest rates and stocks with yields far, far better than you can get in any bank ... but far less than greek debt :)

[belgarion]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10754326

Not before time ... but planes are big bucks and big employers so all good for the US economy.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 September 2011-

Hedged *1378

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1194 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1168

...selling over the last two days has been exhaustive and the market is heavily oversold - however, a violation of the September 6 Low *1136 support indicates upticks should be capped by the September 22 Congestion High *1158 at a maximum

...failing the September 22 Congestion High *1158 signals high risk for more downside with the August 27 2010 High *1066 as target

...the SPX 500 remains heavily oversold on the weekly indicator 1yr_2yr - quite oversold on the 5yr - as a result:

Trade: sold the SPX 500 *1194 - Target Range: below *1096 - Stop: *1168 - Exit Trade *1133

...the market still unable to close the index below *1136 in the weekly (chart: www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...the market extended the oversold corrective drive from the September 26 Low *1108 and pushed into the September 22 Congestion High *1158 as expected

..failing the September 22 Congestion High *1158 signals high risk for more downside with the August 27 2010 High *1066 as target - however, above the September 6 Low *1136 support, the market will continue to push into the June Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 September 2011-

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...the index remains comfortably above the September 6 Low *1136 support - gaining additional strength above the short term weekly trendline current *1148 and the September 22 Congestion High *1158 - currently trading within striking distance of the September 9 High *1194

...above the short term weekly trendline current *1148, the market will aim to take out the overhead resistance formation ranging from the September 9 High *1194 to the August 31 High *1230 to push higher into the June Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 September 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...unfortunately, the market could not follow up on yesterdays's gains and peaked at the September 27 High *1196 - the September 22 Congestion High *1158 and *1148 support are now at risk

,,,a violation or a Close below the September 22 Congestion High *1158 and *1148 support will likely accelerate moves to the downside with the *1100 Psych barrier as target - high risk to stretch lower towards the August 27 2010 High *1066

...however, above the September 22 Congestion High *1158 and *1148 support the market will aim to take out the overhead resistance formation ranging from the September 9 High *1194 to the August 31 High *1230 to push higher into the June Low *1258


Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 30 September 2011-

chart Institutional Core Holding http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com


...the market internals still need to improve but while sentiment remains negative, institutional core holding displays a double bottom

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

... institutional core holding displays a double bottom

That's a good thing, right?

[ananda77]

That's a good thing, right?

... yes, if the market continues to built positive momentum (consolidates above *1103) expect the 3. bull leg up...the bull market can not be written off just yet

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 30 September 2011-

chart Institutional Core Holding http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the market internals still need to improve but while sentiment remains negative, institutional core holding displays a double bottom

Kind Regards

...the SPX 500 so far holding *1148 support suggesting continuing consolidation and potential for more upside to test short term trendline resistance current *1162

...failing below *1162, price action will likely accelerate to the downside for a test of the *1100 Psych barrier with high risk to stretch lower towards the August 27 2010 High *1066

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Interesting that the S&P is within a just a few notches of where we were exactly one year ago .... and we all know what happened after that ... but, of course, this time its different ... :)

[winner69]

Interesting that the S&P is within a just a few notches of where we were exactly one year ago .... and we all know what happened after that ... but, of course, this time its different ... :)

you are so right Belg

And also just a notch away from where we were 13 years ago ..... and 10 years ago ..... and 7 years ago ..... and 3 years ago

And we know what happened then .... but this it is different eh

[Hoop]

Interesting that the S&P is within a just a few notches of where we were exactly one year ago .... and we all know what happened after that ... but, of course, this time its different ... :)

Yes Belg...beware of the Secular Rabbit..

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 October 2011-

monthly SPX 500 chart http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

Trader Update:

Hedged *1378

...with market internals a sea of red and sentiment at extreme Lows, the SPX 500 *1103 bull/bear battle in full swing

...prepare to bungi jump on a Close below *1103 - other than that a mild intraday violation is acceptable - and yes there are those bear traps to consider

...not being caught in the middle may be the correct strategy here - or risk a long Trade with a sensible stop

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

13th September 2011
Hi Entrep
It seems we all have different views chartwise...eh.....who said drawing chart lines was easy:)

My chart below started off simple but I have managed to complicate it to reinforce my bearish view.

My easy answer is "It's Ugly.

The chart below shows that the small 1120 support has become an extremely important level...if it breaks you can kiss your investor arse goodbye.

My view is bearish because
....1120 is a weak support level it had a little influence during the bull correction in the June 2010 then August 2010 but nothing to speak of before that.

....When Bollinger Bands squeeze up (purple arrows) they indicate a change of trend momentum often a reverse trend

....The Volume shows a possible concave trend occurring indicating another increase in volume in the near future ,,,more chance it being a sell volume increase and especially so if the 1120 support fails.

....I normally don't get too hung up on primary trend lines breaking because they do during some bull market corrections...however the S&P 500 broke a support level level as well as followed the leaders ASX Europe Asia markets down.

....I added the 30yr treasury bonds as well ..the yield fall shows money flowing towards them (a perceived safe haven) This flow of money out of the Equity Markets causes those markets to lose momentum. The last time they were this low was late January 2009 during the last phase of the bear... the capitulation phase:(.

....S&P500 as well as many other indexes are technically broken. The S&P has to have a big climb to get out of this bear hole...Above the orange 1280 level....a big ask atm.



All bad news today...1120 broken .....trading target is 1000 = 1220-(1340-1120) ....there is strong support at 1050 so perhaps the fall may arrest that that point.

Below 1050 support is the primary support at 1022 if it drops below this point the S&P500 will technically go from a bear tide to confirm a cyclic bear market,
Since the S&P 500 seems to be lagging other countries share markets who have already confirmed their cyclic bear market cycle it seems "odds on" the American markets will follow at sometime in the near future.

updated #1023 chart
http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/mt0i9ekh4ma79fgczxma.png

[peat]

yeh I agree Hoop
referring back to my maroon support resistance lines and I set this level a while back

then
3634


now
3635

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 October 2011-

Hedged *1378 - Exit Market

...the SPX 500 traded into striking distance of the August 27 2010 High *1066 with an intraday Low *1075 - currently on the rebound above rhe Psych *1100 level

...market in desperate need to consolidate at these levels to avoid panic - a Close above the Psych level *1100 -and holding- would be the start of a consolidation period to wear off the extreme oversold levels in the market - only 6% of unweighted positive nimber of stocks trading with positive strength remain on the SPX 500-

...assuming *1066 support holds, a bull market rally back to the June Low *1258 will be underway

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

What spiked the late rally?

[Financially dependant]

What spiked the late rally?

Helicopter Ben is warming up the chopper and just talked the market back into the Green.....Timing is everything.....

[winner69]

What spiked the late rally?Doesn't really matter Belg ... what matters is today is a key reversal day - bear market over and all good stuff from here ... (the cost of pyramids just went up)

from yahoo finance

Key reversal day?
October 4, 2011, 4:15 PM.

Might the stock market have hit a major bottom on the very day that it also satisfied the official definition of a bear market?

That distinct possibility is raised by the market’s stunning recovery in the last hour of today’s trading session, which appears to satisfy the definition of a “key reversal day”—a technical event that some technicians believe to be potentially quite bullish.

A key reversal day occurs when the market records a new low and then rallies to close above the previous day’s close. And that’s exactly what happened Tuesday: The S&P 500 SPX fell to an intra-day low early in the session at 1,074.77 — which was 21.2% below this benchmark’s closing bull market high of 1,363.61, hit last Apr. 29. That’s in excess of the 20% drop that is often used as the dividing line between a mere correction and a major bear market.

By the end of the session, however, the S&P 500 had rallied from that new intra-day low to close at 1123.95, up 2.3% on the session, and up more than 49 points from the session’s low.

To be sure, a key reversal day in an of itself does not guarantee that the bear market ended today.

Technicians consider the pattern to have primarily short-term significance.

Still, it would be ironic indeed for the bear market to have come to an end on the very day it convinced many that the bull market was dead.

-Mark Hulbert

[Toulouse - Luzern]

Dow down 200 points, closes up 153 points after last hour rally.

Big factor was FT article and market talk about support for EU banks with the set up of a "BadBank"
350 odd points on talk ...

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http:www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...price action today, following in a market driven by extreme negative sentiment and close to panic, suggests a significant bottom has been established

...assuming a bottom is in place above *1065 support, a bull market rally back to the June Low *1258 is underway

...just to be sure, a VIX below minimum 31- better below 29.3 would add certainty and sustainability to a third leg up in the current bull market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 October 2011-

SPX 500 weekly chart: http//www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...down to the nitty gritties - the market needs to continue to built strength in a positive sideways/up move consolidation to weaken the negative overhang in market internals and yesterday's VIX 37.81 Close still represents high fear levels in the market

...look for a bull/bear fight around the *1136 support level for more insight to market direction in the short/medium term

Update:

...so far into the session, the bulls managed to hold the *1136 support with an intraday Low *1135 - now pressing ahead into the September 29 resistance level *1178/*1180 - risks are increasing in the resistance to move lower to affirm the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low ahead

...if the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low is successfully defended, the market is set to rally back into the June 2011 Low *1258

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 October 2011-

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...starting to work off the extreme oversold in the SPX 500 weekly 5-yr

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...large positive divergence in the strength of the NYSE composite index

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...institutional investors accumulated the move - no selling into strength apparent

-However-

chart: http://www.spx500indextracker.blogspot.com
...the breach of the 3-yr VIX overhead resistance Tueday 4th October signals uncertainty down the track

...as a result, above the *1100 Psych level/*1112 Congestion Low, the market is set to rally back into the June 2011 Low *1258 -decision point-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Update 10 October 2011

...price action remains strong above *1168 support - although a corrective pull back is very likely - trading below *1136 signals first signs of weakness and readiness to pull back to the *1100 Psych level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 11 October 2011-

15% Hedged: *1200

Trade: buy *1124 Target: *1258 Stop: *1089

...the SPX 500 drifting moderately higher - extending the rally from the October 4 Low *1075 - market internals improving:

-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows ticking up
-Institutional Buying and Selling Trending in low accumulation
-the # of Positive Trending stocks moved into Positive territory - # of Negative Trending stocks shifted below the Equilibrium line into Negative territory

However

...risk is growing for a larger corrective shake-out ahead of the strong overhead resistance band *1200/*1230 to affirm the *1100 Psych level/*1102*1112 Congestion ahead

-the VIX currently still above the 31 minimum comfort level
-although the # of very strong stocks moved higher, level still too low to sustain the rally for much longer ahead of strong resistance levels
-Short Term, intra-day Liquidity Flows at overbought

...if the *1100 Psych level/*1102*1112 Congestion is successfully defended, the market is set to rally back into the the June 2011 Low *1258 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 13 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

15% Hedged: *1200

Trade: buy *1124 Target: *1258 Stop: *1089

...price action failed again the *1220 mark on October 12 2011 - while profit taking is apparent at the level, down ticks could not damage the recent uptrend starting from the October 4 2011 Low *1075 just yet

...concerns remain that the level of positive trending stocks is negative divergent to the level of very strong stocks moving higher - not a good look in terms of sustainability of the current up-move, as institutions remain sidelined ahead of earnings

...however, the market needs a Close below the October 12 2011 Low *1185 to signal readiness for an extended corrective shake-out to test the *1112/*1125 congestion

Kind Regards

[Financially dependant]

1224 End of day....

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 October 2011-

*15% Hedged: *1200

..the SPX 500 managed a new up-trend High *1125 suggesting further upside to test the August 31 2011 High *1231 - index showing early overbought on daily time frame

...although instituions currently trying a positive bias, no directional committment is apparent - the VIX now trading below the minimum 31 comfort level, but a Close below 29.5 is needed to strengthen the instituional positive bias

...until then, risk are high that the market is near a top - a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 is needed however for confirmation

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 17 October 2011-

Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...Friday 14 October 2011: a bullish VIX Close 28.4

15% Hedged: *1200

...above study shows institutional buy_sell behavior compared to the VIX: a positive institutional bias under construction in line with continued sideways VIX action (note the positve divergence in the buy_sell spread)

...the VIX Close 28.4 will increase the positive bias substantially for a test to take out the VIX 20 support

...as a result, above the October 10 2011 congestion *1182, the market bias remains bullish - and the All Blacks took out the Australians

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 October 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...overbought on the daily time frame combined with strong overhead resistance and continuous lack of institutional directional committment (largely reducing selling and weak accumulation), the market failed the October 14 2011 suggested test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 and corrected down

...a violation or better a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 would confirm a top and signal, the market is vulnerable to a larger corrective pullback to affirm the *1112/*1125 congestion

...depending on institutional comittment, a successful defended *1100 support will set the index up for a re-test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 October 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

15% Hedged: *1200

...the SPX continues to trade/consolidate above the October 12 2011 Low *1186 and the 31 August 2011 High *1130 working its way out of overbought (78% of SPX 500 stocks currently trending positive) slowly- market bias remains positive but weak without directional committment

...a violation or better a Close below the October 10 2011 congestion *1182 would confirm a top and signal, the market is vulnerable to a larger corrective pullback to affirm the *1112/*1125 congestion

...depending on institutional comittment, a successful defended *1100 support will set the index up for a re-test of the August 31 2011 High *1231 - potential to move higher towards the 200-day MA

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Hoop - I take it that this is not good news when trying to pick where the markets are going - copper at 15 month low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/copper-slumps-to-15-month-low-on-europe-debt-worries/story-e6frg91x-1226172448609

[Hoop]

Hoop - I take it that this is not good news when trying to pick where the markets are going - copper at 15 month low

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/copper-slumps-to-15-month-low-on-europe-debt-worries/story-e6frg91x-1226172448609

Hi Winner
It's not good news when copper drop as it is seen as an global economic indicator...You get political BS from time to time when USA has a crack at China..one was when China (not the sporting thing..old Chap) trickle dumped US$ and bought copper reserves during the early recovery...however from chart history that's what always happens..... Copper is a good leading indicator to show cyclic changes especially equity change from bear to bull (100% accurate so far in the last 100 years).

What is a very worrying sight is the pause in the equity markets...its like it being suspended and are defying gravity....a bit like those old cartoons when a character e.g Wle-E-Coyote runs of a cliff suspended in mid-air before gravity takes over:D
http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9tzcd024ey0vzxpn2c5s.jpg

The chart below with the 3 indexes relating to each other shows a worrying divergence towards the S&P500 index

http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/ouhelowt3o7upk6ohz6.png

[Hoop]

Well....the second confirmation today (first being the MA50 crossover)...the rectangle breakout S&P500 closed at 1238.
Index sitting on the MA200 line....
TA indicators are responding to the index raise and are positive.
Only the networking macro stuff like a couple I drew in the above chart is out of sync...strange??

A smell of a bull trap?

[belgarion]

Or bear trap? ... Ah! Decisions, decisions!

Editted: S&P looking pretty good with many indicators heading in the right direction. Fundementals, at least as far as corporate earnings are concerned (as opposed to corp outlooks as expressed by the 1%) are holding up.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 October 2011-

SPX 50 chart: http://wwwspx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 broke above the 3 August 2011/17October 2011 key resistance *1233/*1235 to a new 24 October 2011up-trend High *1257 - institutions stay with a positive bias (selling less/weak accumulation) without directional committment

...formidable overhead resistance *1261 ahead!

...above *1220, the index is set to reach out to the next overhead *1317 target going forward, but risks remain for a larger pull-back to re-test the *1220 key support

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 October 2011-

100% Hedged: *1258

...the market missed overhead resistance *1261 to leave the 24 October 2011 up-trend High *1257 as a top in place - at least near term - heavy selling pressure followed the intraday High *1254 that closed the index *1229 - below the 3 August 2011/17 October 2011 key resistance *1233/*1235

...the expected larger pull-back to re-test the *1220 key support appears to be underway, supported by the number of very large stocks only leading strong stocks by a very thin margin

...chances are, the market will pull lower to the 21 October 2011 Low *1215 with downside potential reaching out to the 20 October 2011 Low *1197/18 October 2011 Low *1191

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 October 2011-

100% Hedged: *1258

...the SPX 500 bounced off the *1220 key support, currently dealing with the 4 August 2011 *1267 weekly High overhead resistance

...above the weekly *1242 trendline support, the market will drive the index into the *1285/*1305 level at a minimum - potential to challenge the 2011 *1376 market top

...expectations are, the yearly 2011 top *1376 will remain in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 28 October 2011-

Institutional Index 'Core' Holding: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.co.nz

20% Hedged: *1271

...SPX 500 outlook unchanged above the weekly *1242 trendline support. The market will attempt to drive the index into the *1285/*1305 level at a minimum - potential to challenge the 2011 *1376 market top

...a violation of the 25 October 2011 High *1256 would signal a re-test to affirm the weekly trendline support current *1244 - a Close below the weekly trendline support suggests weakness ahead

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 31 October 2011-

Cot Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...a bullish bias in the market suggests potential to reach higher ground but

Institutional Index 'Core' Holding Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the institutional index 'Core' Holdings has been driven up hard and fast suggesting a soft consolidation ahead of major resistance

20% Hedged: *1271

..SPX 500 outlook unchanged above the weekly *1242 trendline support. The market will attempt to drive the index into the *1285/*1305 level at a minimum - potential to challenge the 2011 *1376 market top

...the SPX 500 level *1330 - a formidable long term fan line reistance

...a violation of the 25 October 2011 High *1256 would signal a re-test to affirm the weekly trendline support current *1244 - a Close below the weekly trendline support suggests weakness ahead towards the October 26 2011 Low *1221

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

OMG !!!

http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/Greek-PM-calls-referendum-new-rsg-4132394980.html;_ylt=Atbnb4FCQr4jdMYfb3BvCHOiwsRG; _ylu=X3oDMTE4N241NXFvBHBvcwMzBHNlYwN5ZmlUb3BTdG9ya WVzBHNsawNncmVla3BtY2FsbHM-?x=0

This is gonna be a big problem!

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *1271

...the SPX 500 extended losses from the 27 October High *1298 currently testing the 26 October 2011 Low *1221 bouncing off an intraday Low *1216 - so far into the bounce, up-ticks remain unconvincing

...as a result, risk of additional near term weakness could target the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low - setting a near term floor

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Analysis-Greek-referendum-rb-3770275833.html;_ylt=AujXiEjntuvmXvzJRcqbSKC7YWsA; _ylu=X3oDMTE1Z2I2cXIxBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzB HNsawNncmVla3JlZmVyZW4-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

And we gotta wait 10 weeks for the greeks! Bang goes my theory of steep rises going into Christmas.

And worse - it could be steep losses if the BRICs slows down further ...

[ananda77]

Hi Belgarion,

...stuff the markets (over time, the market will surge on news like that) - think it's the correct thing to do - and the only way the Greek have a chance getting their house in order - course, it all depends on which side of the fence you are sitting

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

And we gotta wait 10 weeks for the greeks! Bang goes my theory of steep rises going into Christmas.

And worse - it could be steep losses if the BRICs slows down further ...
This 50% haircut..... investors broke a golden rule.... never invest heavily in an investment that can be effected by a financially unstable country's political power e.g MF Global = greed = disaster. Does it seem like the Chinese are the only group around that has any investment common sense these days.

Lets put this Greek Austerity thing into perspective...to obtain this EURO bailout and 50% writedown the Greek Politicians have to;...
1.....Cut civil servant pay roles by 50%
2.....Cut Welfare by 50%
3.....Remove subsidies....(huge!!!)
4.....Sell all State Assets
5.....Implement controls to monitor and enforce the 1,,2,,3,,above ...also amend Legislation
6.....Have to act quickly...Time is important..Greece is in large capital burn mode

I honestly can't see the above happening ...can you Belg?
The next question to ask is..... who in their right mind would invest their money in Greece now with an interest rate that Greece can afford...eh?

Why the EURO Nations and large financial institutions didn't act a lot sooner to prevent Greece getting so far in the Sh1t is beyond belief....

..this latest Greek thing was enough today to turn the US markets back.. ending a rally and back resembling a primary bear tide.

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50001112011.png

[ananda77]

...just quick stuff out of top of head -

...the SPX 500 successful holding the *1221 support suggests the bullish bias to remain - long term, the market may move into a deep consolidation between the October Low *1066 and 2011 High *1370

...be aware of a market Close below key support *1221

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *1271

...the SPX 500 successful holding the *1221 support suggests the bullish bias to remain - long term, the market may move into a deep consolidation between the October Low *1066 and 2011 High *1370

...be aware of a market Close below key support *1221

...a Close below *1221 would invite risk for additional near term weakness targeting the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low - setting a near term floor if successfully defended

...for immediate bullish action, the market needs to close above 2 November 2011 High *1242

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 4 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *127

...the SPX 500 settles above the 25 October 2011 High *1258 to close *1261 - ready to take on the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267

...the Institutional Index 'Core' holding sits smack on its neckline support in tune with long term liquidity inflows sitting neutral between contraction/expansion - institutions remain in accumulation - the faster rise of the very strong stocks versus strong stocks suggests a positive bias - however, strength still in negative danger zone

...as a result, the market, in a show of strength, needs to move now decisively, with a Close above the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 to remain on track to challenge the 2011 Top *1376

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 November 2011-

SPX 500 Cotchart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the market holding on to the bullish bias suggesting potential to move beyond the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 and to remain on track to challenge the 2011 Top *1376

...improving Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows into low expansion territory

...number of Very Strong stocks almost equal to the number of Strong stocks - both ticking up and are at the zero line - an up move here correlates with the market moving higher

...institutional Index 'Core' holding just above its neckline support line

...strength +4.2 still holding a weak bias below C-RSI +5

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 8 November 2011-

20% Hedged: *1271

...although drifting sideways near unchanged levels, the VIX Close *29.85 added one more piece to the overall positive bias holding in the market - price action remains above the weekly *1237 trendline support - however

...the rally off the November 1 Low *1215 still appears corrective below the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 with risk of another leg down to challenge the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low before setting a possible floor if support is successfully defended

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 November 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

20% Hedged: *1271

...a bullish bias followed by some bullish price action

...the SPX 500 traded past the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 to an intraday High *1278 off the November 1 Low *1215 - price action above the 3 November High *1263 remains bullish ahead of the 27 October trading High *1293_the *1300 Psych barrier

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 November 2011-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

20% Hedged: *1271

...a bullish bias followed by some bullish price action

...the SPX 500 traded past the 1 August 2011 Low *1273 - 4 October High *1267 to an intraday High *1278 off the November 1 Low *1215 - price action above the 3 November High *1263 remains bullish ahead of the 27 October trading High *1293_the *1300 Psych barrier

...the SPX 500 pushed aggressivley through the 3 November 2011 High *1263 support, showing little respect for the 3 October 2011 Low *1239 suppport to an intraday Low *1229 - settng the Peak for the 1 November Low *1215 rally at the 8 November 2011 *1278

...the violation the 3 October 2011 Low *1239 suppport suggests high risk to follow through lower targeting the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low before setting a possible floor if support is successfully defended

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 November 2011-

...the violation the 3 October 2011 Low *1239 suppport suggests high risk to follow through lower targeting the 28 September 2011 High *1187 - potential to reach lower towards the October 9 2011 *1162 support Low before setting a possible floor if support is successfully defended

SPY/VIX/instituional buy_sell Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 needs to turn sharply and close positive to avoid damage on the SPX 500 to become much more serious

short term liquidity flows chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

-daily short term intra-day Liquidity Flows at a low extreme
-strength remains positive +1
-institutional index 'Core' holding slightly below H&S neckline support
-VIX needs to back down below 30.16 to avoid more serious trouble

...mixed market condition - fear clashing with corporate earnings expectations positive

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 11 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the SPX 500 turned sharply and opened the week starting 10 November 2011 on a positive note *1229 - as well as setting a higher Low *1228 - as well as closing above the 4 November 2011 Low *1239 - beat that-

...as a result, the positive bias in the market is bruised but not dead - the funeral directors need to hang in there and wait until the market has had the guts full of volatility and follows through sharply lower:

-taking down the 10 November 2011 Low *1228
-taking down the 1 November 2011 Low *1215
-taking down the *1200 Psych barrier

on the way to challenge the 50-dsma current *1192

...a Close below *1192 confirms the 9 November 2011 *1275 as Top

Kind Regards - Arividerci

[belgarion]

From death cross to golden cross last year was about 3.5 months. About another month to go before the golden cross but bulls are moving already.

(Death/golden crosses are crossover of the 50 and 200 day moving averages).

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...more positive 11 November 2011 price action just below the 200-dsma *1272.27 supported by rising 50_dsma *1200.78

-closing *1263.85 above the 3 November 2011 Pivot High *1263.2
-VIX closing *30.04 below Pivot 30.16

SPX 500 Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-negative volume divergence continues

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) -stocks negative

-weak strength below C-RSI +5

...as a result, mixed internals supporting a market in need for more consolidation between the 1 November Low *1215 and the 200-dsma current *1272.72. However, above the 10 November High *1246.22 and the 3 November 2011 Pivot High *1263.21, price action supports a break above the 200-dsma to challenge the 27 October 2011 Trading High *1292.66. At this stage expectations are, *1292.66 Top will remain in place until market internals favor clear upside potential

...on the downside, any violation of the 1 November *1215 Low signals very HIGH risk for more downside price action to challenge the *1200 Psych barrier as a minimum

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...initial strength before the Open (Globex) dissipated - the market opened the SPX 500 session at the 11 November 2011 Close *1263.85 - moderating to an intraday Low *1246.68, slightly above the 10 November High *1246.22 - selling remained subdued throughout the session, but uptick strength suggests mild follow through lower to challenge weekly trendline support current *1233 - expectations are, *1233 will act as a near term floor to motivate another attempt to break above the 200-dsma current *1272.10 in the week ahead

SPX 500 Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-moderately lower on light flows

-VIX closing *31.13 moderately above Pivot 30.16
-weak strength below C-RSI +5

FTL-stocks Chart: chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) -stocks improved - still in negative territory

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/why-super-committee-could-break-end-rally-195925266.html;_ylt=AqXwnSuIcdtCA9W3sf8Zzd.iuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzaXQ5cmlpBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwM2OTQzM2UwYi1iMTZmLTM3M2YtYTIwZi05 ZmI1Mzk5YTM0NWIEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDMz EwM2QzNjAtMGVmYi0xMWUxLTk4NWEtZDE1ZTM2N2E4OWEz;_yl g=X3oDMTFpNzk0NjhtBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25z;_ylv=3

Geez - if it not Euro politics stuffing things up its American politics ...

I'm guessing the Santa Claus rally will be postponed to until next year :(

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...another vague bullish attempt to go past the 11 November 2011 High 166.98 - mildly rejected past the 14 November 2011 High *1263.85 with an intraday High *1264.25

the bullish bits:

-momentum 8 November 2011 High 103.81_momentum 15 November 2011 High 103.21
-Trin 15 November 2011 0.98 neutral to bullish bias
-50-dsma moving up *1204.18

SPX 500 Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume 11 November 2011 761.5_volume 15 November 2011 781.0

FTL-stocks Chart: chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) - 0-line test

the bearish bits:

-VIX Close *31.22 increasing to 31.22 above Pivot 30.16
-weak strength below C-RSI +5

...as a result, uptick strength suggests mild follow through lower to challenge weekly trendline support current *1233 - expectations are, *1233 will act as a near term floor to motivate another attempt to break above the 200-dsma current *1272.10 in the week ahead

-option expiry 17 November 2011-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 sold off into the Close *1236.91 just above the lower 3-week wedge support *1233.62 - weekly trendline support slipped lower current *1226.15 and marks a tolerable intraday potential bounce off point - the market definitely needs to hold the index right there in the range to avoid follow through lower - violation of *1226.13 suggest weakness ahead with the next possible target the 1 November Pivot Low *1215_50-dsma current *1204.95

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX bounced off the *30.16 Pivot support closing squeezed just below the 50-dsma *34.02 - pushing a Close below the 50-dsma should put an end to bullish hopes for the 1 November Pivot Low *1215_50-dsma current *1204.95 to hold

SPX 500 volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...down volume tapering off with consecutive sell-downs suggesting a move towards exhaustion

USD-Index chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...USD-Index strength above the 50-dsma - oil up - positive economic news - SPX 500 down - looks like a SPX 500 shake out rather than a fake out

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 November 2011-

...the SPX 500 in the hot danger zone - something goes wrong, the index drops like a ton of lead...

FTL-stocks Chart:http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-last stop before oblivion - potential for growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong) to form inverted H&S pattern IF it bounces today - beat that

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10767491

Some counter trend news coming out about what americans are really up too ... Remember most don't read the financial news (or indeed know where Europe is) and just go about their daily business ...

[Hoop]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10767491

Some counter trend news coming out about what americans are really up too ... Remember most don't read the financial news (or indeed know where Europe is) and just go about their daily business ...

Yep..but I bet those Americans will grizzle when interest rates & other tighter monetary controls kick in to control inflation when the economy finally takes off (probably rocket off).
Remember there is no correlation between Business cycles and Sharemarket cycles...Yes the sharemarket could take off, it all depends on investor group behaviour but it is wise to factor in possible sharemarket disappointment e.g as has happened with the miners when high metal prices failed to show up in the miner stock prices.

If profits fail to feed through to Share prices the classic lowering of Shiller's Annualised PE Ratio during a secular Bear Market when inflation starts to kick in scenario is to blame......also have you noticed the large increased profits these last 2 years seem to be plateauing out this year (3rd year)..another factor in the possible disappointment scenario.

The markets may indeed take off to higher highs and all of us will be benefactors of that rise (me included as I'll be buying on buy signals)..but if the market doesn't take off, the media and inexperienced investors and some fundies maybe scratching their heads and blame that the market is crazy...but I'll know why..it'll be that pesky secular bear at work.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 5 August 2011 market opened the SPX 500 *1200.28 - bulls managed the (+18) High *1218.11 - the bears managed the (-32) Low *1168.09 - the index closed uncertain *1199.38 - for the next 45 days until 10 Ocotber 2011, the index traded below the 50-dsma but crossed *1175.92 - consequent price action took the index up to the 27 October High *1292. 66

...the 11 November 2011 market opened the SPX 500 *1216.19 - the bulls managed the (+7) High *1223.51 - the bears managed the (-5) Low *1211.36 - the index closed uncertain *1215.68

-Trin +1.38 bearish bias with higher down-volume but more advancing issues

momentum_10 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-momentum trailing below 3 month trendline support
-market strength C-RSI 30 close to 0-line
-institutions moved into low distribution
-Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutions, Foreign Liquidity Inflows moved into low contraction

...favorite seasonality supports expectations of higher prices ahead, but the market needs to hold the 50-dsma current *1206.78 and the 5 August 2011 Close *1200.28 - an accumulative Close above the weekly trendline support current *1223.94 would be the minimum show of strength to support expectations

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 extended the breakdown from the 3-week wedge in a deeper sell-off past the 18 October 2011 Low *1191.48 and challenged the 50% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally *1183 before turning up to close *1192.94 - above the 18 October 2011 Low *1191.48


VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the VIX added just another 0.72 goosebumps to yesterday's Close *32 on the sell-down
-Trin: +2.68 close to ueber-bearish

...so far in the play, the bounce off the *1183/*1191 level provided the first stepping stone to support expectations of the SANTA rally into year end 2011 targeting weekly upper channel resistance current *1343 - however, as long as weekly trendline resistance current *1222.70 caps the upside, risks to extend down remain extremely high

Trade: buy current prices target: *1325 stop: *1175

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 23 November 2011-

...the SPX 500 violated the 50% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally *1183 with an intraday Low *1181.65 so far and price action appears weak - the soft price action suggests lower prices ahead as long as weekly trendline resistance current *1222.74 caps the upside - the next logical down target is the 10 October 2011 price/50-dsma Crossing *1175.92 - potential to stretch lower to challenge the 10 October 2011 Low *1158.15 before setting a near term bottom

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 violated the 50% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011rally *1183 with an intraday Low *1181.65 - closing *1188.04 above the inflection point *1183 - the intraday break below *1183 suggests lower prices ahead as long as weekly trendline resistance current *1222.74 caps the upside - the next logical down target is the 10 October 2011 price/50-dsma Crossing *1175.92 - potential to stretch lower to challenge the 10 October 2011 Low *1158.15 before setting a near term bottom

...several developing positive divergences in the market internals suggest potential for price to form a near term bottom

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-positive volume divergence

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-lower VIX Close *32.19

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-positive divergence in the growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks growing now faster than the strong stocks
-positive divergence in the amount of institutional selling versus NYA price action

Trade: buy current prices target: *1325 stop: *1175
Trade: buy Close *1200 (+) target: *1325 stop: *1183

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

A77 ... Could you explain how the FTL chart is derived? That's a completely new measure for me. Many thanks.

[ananda77]

A77 ... Could you explain how the FTL chart is derived? That's a completely new measure for me. Many thanks.

Hi Belgarion,

...this link will tell you what this is all about http://www.stocktiming.net/difference-between-traders/ http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 stretched lower past the 10 October 2011 price/50-dsma Crossing *1175.92 for a challenge of the 10 October 2011 Low *1158.15 (the 61.8% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally) - the index closed *1161.79

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the positive volume divergence continues

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the positive VIX divergence
-Trin: +4.46 at extreme bearish bias

...the market traded into short term oversold and could produce a bounce but the real test of the 61.8% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally) remains in the cards. A successful defense of the *1158 level should provide the building blocks for the long-awaited SANTA rally

Trade: buy current prices target: *1325 stop: *1175 stopped
Trade: buy Close *1211.46 (+) target: *1325 stop: *1183

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 25 November 2011-

...boredom re: financial news almost unbearable...anyway...

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 25 November 2011 market opened the SPX 500 *1161.61 - bulls managed the (+11) High *1172.66 - the bears managed the (-3) Low *1158.66 - the index closed in the day's low range *1158.67 -uncertainty reigns - weekend/hangover upticks uninspiring - the real test of the 61.8% retrace of the 4 October 2011 to 27 October 2011 rally) remains in the cards and a successful defense of the *1158 level should provide the building blocks for the long-awaited SANTA rally - however risks remain high the market will diddle around and loose the *1158 level to challenge a very strong support base *1136

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the 25 November 2011 price action - expected very light flows

NYSE chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-NYSE - oversold -

SPX 500 Stocks positive/negative trending chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- 93.4% SPX 500 stocks in negative Strength - oversold -

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- the VIX closed higher - no wonder with USD strength but:

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- strong USD 80 - resistance challenge ahead

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 28 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market bull's moment of glory kicked the market up to an intraday High *1197.35 from an oversold position where even the Friday 25 November 2011 index put/call ratio showed an obvious positive divergence

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume accumulation compared to the 9 August 2011 and 4 October 2011 Lows -disappointing- so far

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the VIX Close *32.13 remains above the minimum safety indication for sustainability *30.16

...as a result, the market needs to show its hand and trade the VIX below *30.16 as a minimum - additional safety markers required for sustainability:
-Close below *26
-Close below *24
to set up a lower Low - followed by a confirmation challenge *30.16

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader update -data point 30 November 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 29 November 2011 market:

-opened *1192.56
-bulls (+10) High *1202.67
-bears (-1) Low *1191.80
-index closed in day's low range *1195.19
-the market rejected an initial attempt to trade past the 50-dsma current *1205.51

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume accumulation compared to the 9 August 2011 and 4 October 2011 Lows -disappointing-

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-the VIX Close *30.64 remains above the minimum safety indication for sustainability *30.16

...as a result, although the index remained in positive territory adding a (+3) -extension to the 28 November 2011 up-move off *1158.67 - low volume so far and a VIX above the *30.16 safety level builds the up-move on shaky ground - high risks for failure remains below the weekly trendline resistance current *1214.18 that would motivate the market for a second test to confirm the 28 November 2011 up-move level *1158.67 - potential to reach lower to challenge the *1136 strong support hold - a successful challenge of the *1136 level should provide the building blocks for the continuation of the SANTA rally into year end 2011

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 surged past the 50-dsma as well as the weekly trendline resistance current *1213.15 (Wednesday 23 November 2011 - Trade: buy Close *1211.46 (+) target: *1325 stop: *1236) on

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
reasonable high volume accumulation that improved the underlying uncertainty caused by low volume accumulation during the up-move off the 28 November 2011 Low *1158.67 - the index is short term overbought but momentum could carry prices past upper wedge resistance current *1252.16 into the heavily fortified *1260 congestion (the 200-dsma current *1265.89 - potential for the market to push prices up as far as the 8 November 2011 High *1277.55 before exhaustion sets in

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-unfortunately, the VIX closed *27.80, unable to push below the program selling threshold *26.0

...as a result, this market appears to be the day traders version of nibbana, but a nightmare for investors seeking a sustainable longer term hold

Trade: sell *1263.00 (+) ideal target: *1220/*1230 congestion stop: *1287.00)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 2 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 consolidated between *1239.73 and *1251.09 intraday moving quietly along above the 200-dsma hourly time frame - the Trin *0.77 remained with a bullish to neutral bias - Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows and institutional buy_sell trending neutral to bullish bias - up-trend institutional selling trending at inflection point - C-RSI_30 remains negative

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks higher than growth rate strong stocks - in positive territory 1 December 2011

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
- the VIX *27.4 moved marginally lower - unable to push below the program selling threshold *26.0

...as a result, trading momentum above the 200-dsma could carry prices past upper wedge resistance current *1252.16 into the heavily fortified *1260 congestion (the 200-dsma current *1265.43) - potential for the market to push prices up as far as the 8 November 2011 High *1277.55 before exhaustion sets in

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 extended slightly higher into the heavily fortified *1260 congestion (the 200-dsma current *1265.43) before selling settled the index into the *1244.28 Close (-2) off the 1246.03 Open

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...volume sell extended slightly higher

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX bounced off the 200-dsma current *25.34 to close *27.52 - unfortunately still above the *26.00 program selling threshold - on a positive note, the VIX intraday Low *25.29 penetraded the current 200-dsma level

...as a result, although the market trades in the strongest time frame of a year and a 7.39% weekly gain needs to account for a strong positive bias towards the end of the year - the selling on slightly higher volume combined with a VIX above *26.00 and a minus Open/Close result signals waning strength in the short term - below *1244, risks are high for the market to force the index into confirmation drive to challenge the 10 November 2011 Low *1227.70 - potential to extend lower for a challenge of the *1215 support - potential to extend lower for a 50-dsma confirmation challenge current *1210.26 - however, pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market opened the SPX 500 strongly and pushed the trade right past the 200-dsma current *1264.52 to the intraday High *1266.73 - a nice bullish (+22) surprise before selling settled the index (+12) to close *1257.08 - (+22) gap up Open versus (-10) sell down Close - however, the index closed (-3) below yesterday's intraday High *1260.08

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-volume registered accumulation
-the *0.55 Trin signals extreme bullishness

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-unfortunately, a higher VIX Close *27.84 adds a bearish splash into the bullish painting
-institutional buy/sell trending and Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity_Institutional Investors_Foreign Liquidity Inflows remaining neutral - strength remains weak

...as a result, it is unlikely that instituitons would be major accumulators with the heavily fortified *1260 congestion/the 200-dsma current *1265.43/the 9 November 2011 High *1275.18 ahead unless the market offers cheaper incentives to accumulate - below *1247.11, risks are high for the market to force the index into confirmation drive to challenge the 10 November 2011 Low *1227.70 - potential to extend lower for a challenge of the *1215 support - potential to extend lower for a 50-dsma confirmation challenge current *1212.76 - however, pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market trends up and the VIX trends up - No Thank You - portfolio protection remains in place until after a decent shake-out

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 12 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...8 December 2011 price action trapped the bears 5 points below the hourly 200-dsma -nice shake-out- respecting the daily 21-dsma current *1227.28 and the 50-dsma current *1219.85

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the Vix tested the *30.16 resistance but without having set a lower Low first below *24.44 - the rising 200-dsma sits currently *25.55

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...daily price action sits way overbought - high risk for any up-move to be met with a selling rout

Cot chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...small speculators are the main driver of this current rally

...as a result, short term up-side potential to meet the 8 November 2011 High *1277 as long as the index remains above the 21-dsma current *1227.28 and 50-dsma current *1219.85 - high risk however, trading a break-out above the 200-dsma in an extremely over extended daily market - despite Friday's bullish display (Trin *0.65), a repeat challenge of the 3 August 2011 Low *1234.55 cannot be ruled out - pull backs to above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 extended its corrective shake-out to an intraday Low *1227.25 just a notch above the 21-dsma current *1227.18 and closed *1236.47 just above the 3 August 2011 Low *1234.56 - potential to extend lower to challenge the 50-dsma current *1221.95 - potential to extend lower to challenge the 5 August 2011 High *1218.11

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX closed lower *25.69 setting a positive divergence with a 200-dsma challenge current *25.57- pull backs to Closes above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the USD-index remains a Red Flag to the market as well as continuous weakness in the Chinese market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 14 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market challenged the 5 August 2011 High *1218.11 with an intraday Low *1219.43 and settled the SPX 500 *1225.73 right on the the 21-dsma/50-dsma inflection point - luke warm support at best at inflection leaving the bears clear in the driver seat

Volume chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...volume registered distribution producing a very bearish Trin *1.79

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX closed lower building on the positive divergence moving clearly below the 200-dsma with an intraday Low *23.27 to close *25.41 -still above the *24.00 level-

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO added more shades of red taking out the 5 October 2011 High *79.87 heading up into the *81.00 Double Top level

...as a result, the developing positive VIX divergence signals expectations of higher prices ahead - the DXYO trade however shows equity markets the finger - unless, equity traders are confident enough the USD will never ever make it past *81.00 Double Top - pull backs to Closes above the 50-dsma provide favorable buying opportunities - Trade: buy *current levels Target: *1315 Stop: *1211.36 - a fully invested portfolio still in need for lower 20 - 50 (%) protection

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the market moved the SPX 500 past the 5 August 2011 High *1218.11 down to an intraday Low *1209.47 to settle *1211.82 - Trade: buy *current levels Target: *1315 Stop: *1211.36 remains 'on' - the 21-dsma current *1223.41 crossed below the 50-dsma current *1226.24 - volume registered distribution again - the bears keep the pressure on

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX spiked higher to *27.55 and closed above the program selling *26.00 threshold *26.04 - above the 200-dsma current *25.64

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...with *81.29, the DXYO took out the first 1 October 2011 *80.90 Top - technicals look constructive for further advances

SPX 500 derivative chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the index now trades very close to the daily 1-yr trendline support current *1202.71 with the 11 October 2011 Low *1187.30 providing next logical support

...as a result, all support points down to the 200-dsma failed to ignite accumulation including today's price action off the Low - price action naturally appears now to favor hugging the down-line instead of bothering reaching out towards the up-line - situation most likely remaining unchanged until strong accumulation at support signals first signs of change - a fully invested portfolio still in need for lower 20 - 50 (%) protection

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 December 2011-

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks - in negative territory with an uptick 14 December 2011 - a first positive sign of accumulation

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 15 December 2011 Low *1209.47 (just below the 50% retrace of the 28 November 2011/7 December 2011 advance) appears subject to a cautious recovery attempt - Trade: buy *current levels Target: *1315 Stop: *1211.36 remains 'on' - the 13/14 December 2011 bearish Trin leaves the market unsettled -she'll be allright mate -get the hell outta here- *1.00 neutral - 50 (%) protection for a fully invested portfolio - reducing at Closes above *1225.60

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 December 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 16 December 2011 buyers shifted the SPX 500 (+14.95) points up before sellers shifted the index (-11.43) down to a *1219.66 Close - the Trin *0.86 registered a bullish bias - trading happened on very light flows -

SPX 500 cot chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...cot shows market support of large specs in tune with small specs for the week ending 13 December 2011

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX has worked its way lower to a *24.29 Close - a (-0.24) lower than the 28 October 2011 *24.53 Close

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...despite the 14 December 2011 down day and apparent selling into the Close 15/16 December 2011, the growth rate ----FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks continues to develop a positive divergence growing stronger than strong stocks

...as a result, price action supports higher prices above the SPX 500 15 December 2011 Low *1209.47 ( (just below the 50% retrace of the 28 November 2011/7 December 2011 advance) - 50 (%) protection for a fully invested portfolio - reducing at Closes above *1225.60

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

That 50 MA is still lining up a golden cross with the 200 MA ... they've been pretty reliable over the last five years in that when the cross looks likely - it happens!

(Note to self: don't count the chicken before they hatch!)

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 December 2011-

.SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
..in an extreme bearish down leg (Trin *2.84), the market sailed through the SPX 500 15 December 2011 Low *1209.47 marking an intraday Low *1202.37, below the 29 November 2011 High *1203.67 - the intraday violation of the 29 November 2011 High *1203.67 combined with a tepid support off the intraday Low *1202.37 signals weakness ahead - lower targets in the neighbourhood include the 30 November 2011 Low *1296.72, the 29 November 2011 Low *1291.80, the November 28 High *1297.35 - coinciding nicely with 3-mth trendline support current *1291.82

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX wedged in between *24.00 support and its 200-dsma resistance current *25.72 while the 21-dsma and the 50-dsma trending down - the 200-dsma at neutral inflection

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO consolidating below double top resistance *81.00

...as a result, above the 29 November 2011 congestion and 3-mth trendline support, the index remains on track for a third leg higher into the *1300 Psych barrier (+) - taking out the 19 December 2011 High *1224.57 is a minumum requirement to achieve - 50 (%) protection for a fully invested portfolio - reducing at Closes above *1225.60

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Ending near bang-on that 50 day MA ... ???

edited: actually ending about 12 points above and preserving the 60 DMA noreast direction :) ... Just need to punch to a higher high above the 1285 mark and I'd say it back to normal business ... (Note to self: don't count the chickens before they hatch! but a good boy scout is always prepared :) )

[ananda77]

Trader Update - data point 21 December 2011-


SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...an ultra bullish (Trin: *0.2) trading day as a result of a surging market makes sense versus shorting following yesterday's ultra bearish display finishing close to strong support

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...VIX confirms down trend with lower Low *23.22 -below *23.27-

...as price action in correlation with short term upside momentum align ideally for higher prices, the market now can simply not afford to dislay signs of hesitation - traders have to keep the surge on short of some intraday weakness around the 10 points mark - since fully invested portfolio protection has been reduced above *1225.60, any hesitation above the tolerable 10 points level will have to be met with uncompromising protective measures back to the 50% protection initially

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

DJI golden cross seems to have happened today !!! Great news.

SP500 50 DMA continues to straight line its cross over the 200 dma ... Should happen mid Jan some time. More good news!

VIX is sub 25. Even more good news!

Less positively (or maybe not due to Euro issues) - 10 year treasury is down to 2%. Would like to see yields increase as demand for treasuries declines ... But as I say, this could simply be non-US demand for a stable currency, i.e. a hedge against the Euro.

Footsie running a bit behind but showing similar signs, i.e. a golden cross 1st/2nd qtr this year. DAX and CAC less so.

Nikkei still going backwards (probably due to EQ issues still). SHANGHAI COMPOSITE showing no signs except "stuck in its down trend".

Overall - for all the doom and gloom around - Global stocks should have a reasonable year - lead by US markets ...

... Time to check some other indicators to see if the water is safe to enter ;)

[belgarion]

BDI shows nothing doing and DRYS and DSX going nowhere - no pressure on dry goods shipping so there's capacity ... (need to check tonnages)

DJTA is showing some signs of life tho ...

A very mixed set of signals ... Hoop? Any thoughts?

[winner69]

VIX is sub 25. Even more good news!


..... but that means (implies) that the US markets are likely to go up only 7% in the next 30 days .... I would have thought you were more bullish than this Belg ..... or is it good news because the market might only go down 7% instead of collapsing big time

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 3 January 2012 market pushed past the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 in an apparent show of strength, but sold off the 31 November 2011 High *1284.69 without setting even a marginal new High - the 27 December 2011 VIX closed the *1269.37 High *21.91 - furthermore, the 3 January 2012 VIX closed the day's High *1284.62 *22.22, red-flagging a market heading higher with a VIX heading higher - in perspective, a VIX Close below the bullish *19.83 level would be needed to set the market at ease with a bullish outlook - in the meantime, caution trading this market is advisable

...nevertheless, despite the obvious bullish/bearish indecisiveness in the market, the surge past the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 opens up further upside potential to challenge 2-yr trendline resistance current *1290.25 en route to the 27 October 2011 Peak *1292.66 in the neighbourhood - past *1292.66, the view opens up into the *1300 Psych barrier, making out *1356.70 in the distance

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 5 January 2012 market again challenged the *1260 support with a successful defense of the 30 December 2012 High *1264.12 - the bounce off the intraday Low *1265.26 featured a higher Close on higher volume, but unfortunately, that's how much the bullish lot were giving away

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 5 January 2012 *21.48 VIX closes below the 27 December 2011 *21.91 VIX - above the bullish *19.83 level, the bullish/bearish indecisiveness remains a concern in the market

...further upside potential remains to challenge 2-yr trendline resistance current *1290.84 en route to the 27 October 2011 Peak *1292.66 in the neighbourhood - past *1292.66, the view opens up into the *1300 Psych barrier, making out *1356.83 in the distance - at this stage, a Close below the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37justifies an increase to 75% protection of a fully invested portfolio

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 9 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market remains wedged undecided between the 3 January 2011 High *1284.62 and the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 heading towards resolution

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 6 January 2012 VIX closed *20.63 SPX 500 positive divergent but remains above the bullish *19.83

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO broke double top resistance with a new intraday High *81.60 - 21-dsma_50-dsma -200-dsma moving up

...upside potential remains to challenge 2-yr trendline resistance current *1290.92 en route to the 27 October 2011 Peak *1292.66 in the neighbourhood - past *1292.66, the view opens up into the *1300 Psych barrier, making out *1356.94 in the distance - at this stage, a violation of the 27 December 2011 High *1269.37 signals weakness and justifies an increase to 75% protection of a fully invested portfolio

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

10 points from that Golden Cross ... Will it steam straight thru like the last one or will there be a brief tanking like the one before?

Some good signs that americans are tired of the pessimism .. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10777649

[belgarion]

Alcoa result out and we're looking far, far better than expected ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/alcoa-posts-loss-gives-positive-003131958.html;_ylt=Aj5lrhmKmpjPfmhCWcuvFTmiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQ0b3R0bTZrBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG 9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDOGE0MWEwNDktYjg0OS0zOWY3LWI3MTYt Y2U0MjM0NDhkYzdiBHBvcwMxBHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyAz NjMDg4YWMwLTNiMmYtMTFlMS1iZmJhLTA4M2Y2NGVjMjZiOQ--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRw c3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ ylv=3

And more good news ... Yanks are hitting the plastic ... a third straight monthly increase!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/november-consumer-credit-most-since-203914394.html;_ylt=AppLiobzYm_6A7U_OAykx5aiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQ0N2s0YnBhBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIFRvcCBTdG 9yeSBSaWdodARwa2cDYjUzMWNmZGItOGZmYi0zODFmLWI2ODYt YjQwMDJmOTQxZDQ2BHBvcwM1BHNlYwN0b3Bfc3RvcnkEdmVyA2 IzMDc2M2UwLTNiMWEtMTFlMS1iZmVmLThhMGExYzUwOWRkMg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRw c3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ ylv=3

[belgarion]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-may-raise-rates-mid-180049441.html;_ylt=Ah7V9u0g.HMAOESYCm_ftHKiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzanJjcmFyBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwMwYzMyNTdhYS00ZTBlLTM0NzktOWIzMy0z NjhhNjMwNTYzMTMEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDNj YzN2UyZjAtM2M3ZS0xMWUxLWJiZmYtZDU0MTA4YmM3ZTU5;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3

Watch the bond stampede if Plosser's view becomes mainstream ...

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 13 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 trading at 3-mth Highs closing *1295.50 setting another intraday High *1296.82 - caution dominates trading below the *1300 Psych barrier and strong overhead resistance ranging up to the 28 July 2011 High *1316.32

Market Internals chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...short term intra-day liquidity flows - short term institutional shift of direction - new Highs market internals as well as a bearish biased Trin today *1.17 display negative divergences

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX still fails to close into the bullish inspired *19.63 level

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...both the strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks below zero in negative territory and below support

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO rally off the 27 October 2011 Low *74.86 remains supported *80.55 trendline support

...upside potential into the *1300 Psych barrier and strong overhead resistance ranging up to the 28 July 2011 High *1316.32 remains above the 28 October 2011 High *1287.08 - however, ahead of OpEx and due to multiple negative divergences, risk of a bearish strike are increasing - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

20 day MA cross with 200 day MA today ...

[winner69]

20 day MA cross with 200 day MA today ...

Thats good news isn't it Belg

Last time it happened market +43%

Previous 2 times before that +20% odd

It's all on now eh

S&P plus 20% from here abiut 1500 and that would complete a nice W formation on the chart .... what after that?

[belgarion]

.... what after that?

Who cares :) in-out, in-out, shake-it-all-about :)

France downgraded to AA+ (same as US) ... Yawn!

[Hoop]

All the media drama in Europe last year you would think that there would be better Countries in the world than the European countries....eh
So who are the most stable and credit worthy countries left sofar in the world after the 2008 GFC and the 2011 Euro crisis.
Well France has just lost its triple A rating and Austria may also lose it.downgrade one notch is no big deal. USA seems a lot better after its AAA loss.
Well there is 15 left in the AAA club 14 probably after today....

.....So does it come as a surprise to you that 10 of the 14 AAA countries left in the world are situated in Europe,

The S&P Triple-A Rated Countriy Club List:


Switzerland
AAA


Sweden
AAA


Singapore
AAA


Liechtenstein
AAA


Luxembourg
AAA


Netherlands
AAA


Norway
AAA


Canada
AAA


Australia
AAA


Austria
AAA(going)



France
AAA(gone)



Finland
AAA


Denmark
AAA


Germany
AAA


Hong Kong
AAA


United Kingdom
AAA

[belgarion]

There's so much money sitting in short-term accounts and earning zero return that even a shred of good news can jolt the market higher, said David Kelly, chief market strategist with J.P. Morgan Funds.

"The stock market is cheap, but cash and Treasurys are extremely expensive," Kelly said. "That's why even though people are busy taking money out of stocks and putting it into bond funds, they really should be doing the opposite."http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-rise-europe-debt-sales-144115045.html;_ylt=Av1KEB.aSuNKXFKczPtf1TKiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzZWp1cGxiBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNiMjY2YmU2MS03ZDAxLTMyOTktYjE1YS0z ZjUzMjk5OGU4ODEEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDZT JiZTI4MDAtNDE0NC0xMWUxLWJlZjItYzQ3YTU4OGU2MDQw;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3

Kelly's got that right! ... Grinding our way to a Golden Cross ... 14 points to go and looking good!

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/where-investor-money-going-under-191550285.html;_ylt=AhNkHg7Mz8kBdpR1UL3T3jSiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzMWJqMjdjBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwM0OWU1OWQ4NS00MTMyLTMzNjgtYmI5YS0w NDBiNTkzYWFiMDEEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDZj ZmYjVjNTAtNDE0Ni0xMWUxLWI3MWYtYTNlZGRiZDhiMzA1;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3

If you wait for the Euro crisis to "finish" ... you'll have missed the boat ... its pretty over already (albeit they'll be plenty of noise and doom and gloom when one of the stragglers default, and hopefully leaves, thereby leaving behind a stronger Euro zone!)

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data pint 18 January 2911-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 pushed into the *1300 Psych barrier_strong overhead resistance ranging up to the 28 July 2011 High *1316.32 'Red Zone' with an intraday High *1303 - failing the 29 July 2011 High *1304.16 into the *1293.67 Close

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...short term intra-day liquidity flows - short term institutional shift of direction - new Highs market internals as well as a bearish Trin today *1.43 remain as negative divergences

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks below zero in negative territory and below support

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX continuous to fail the bullish inspired *19.63 level

DXYO chart:http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
..the DXYO rally off the 27 October 2011 Low *74.86 remains supported *80.55 trendline support

...the bull/bear face-off remains in full swing with Closes below the *1300 Psych level - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 19 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls in the SPX 500 market, in a serious attempt to win the on-going bull/bear face-off, settled above the *1300 Psych barrier with a *1308.04 Close for the first time in several month. Leaving the 1 August 2011 High *1307.38 and the 29 July 2011 High *1304.16 behind, the immediate attraction higher features the 27 July 2011 High *1316.32 in the strong overhead resistance 'Red Zone'. The Trin *0.55 of the day shows a clear bullish win

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX however, keeps telling a cautious story. Although the 18 January 2012 VIX closed lower *20.89 then the 17 January VIX market, it settled for a higher Low *20.78 and keeps the short term up-trend alive

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...a stocktimimg.com VIX study again highlights a potentially dangerous market condition, featuring a sideways breakout in a descending wedge formation

...although money appears to keep pouring into the market that pushes the market higher, the negative divergence in the VIX tells a story of catious ongoing hedging positions for a substantial fall ahead - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Good sign. A77 is being cautions when the bulls have taken charge.


Buy shares in Helicopter manfactures! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-latest-easing-could-cost-192319782.html;_ylt=AgGk_tQdumf.bvOgn7R6aLKiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzcTNiNHIwBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNlMGZiODZhMS1hNGRiLTNjZDYtYTBmYi05 MTA4Y2M1NGJkNzAEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDNm UzMGE1NDAtNDJkMy0xMWUxLWJiY2ItOGEwYjI1MTA3NDNh;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3

[ananda77]

Good sign. A77 is being cautions when the bulls have taken charge.


Buy shares in Helicopter manfactures! http://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-latest-easing-could-cost-192319782.html;_ylt=AgGk_tQdumf.bvOgn7R6aLKiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzcTNiNHIwBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNlMGZiODZhMS1hNGRiLTNjZDYtYTBmYi05 MTA4Y2M1NGJkNzAEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDNm UzMGE1NDAtNDJkMy0xMWUxLWJiY2ItOGEwYjI1MTA3NDNh;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3

...yes Belgarion, buy high and sell higher is not one of my strategies - in the end am better off starting to lock in profits

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 20 Jnauary 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls in the SPX 500 market traded the index higher into the *1314.50 Close setting an intraday High *1315.49 just short of the 27 July 2011 High *1316.32 - the daily Trin *0.86 stayed with a bullish bias - volume accumulation sightly higher - the bulls now appear to be serious to challenge the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91 with the 21 July 2011 Low *1325.65 a stepping stone in between

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX ventured into bullish territory below *19.63 with an intraday Low *19.45, but still closed *19.87

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO shows some weakness trading below the 4 October 2011 High *80.43 with a Close *80.41 and an inraday violation *80.21, indicating potential bullish implications for the equity markets

Put/Call Ratio and SPX 500 v. VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com


...while Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows are strong, the market is trading into overbought territory - the actual count of very strong stocks current *183 is close to peak levels *188 of the 27 October 2011 Hig h *1292.66 - as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301 until the bullish advance is confirmed with an expected shake-out into the *1295 support level as a minimum

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

A77, I like your style and your commentary adds encouragement at the troughs and warns me to monitor and adjust stops as we start to go up. You're almost a set of traffic lights, going from red, amber and green, when the market sentiment (or should I say media induced sentiment?) is going green, amber, red ..

[ananda77]

Belgarion:

Thanks, am hope find the time always to do and be just that

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

10 points from that Golden Cross ... Will it steam straight thru like the last one or will there be a brief tanking like the one before?

9'ish points to go ... talk about slow motion! If a cross does happen, I'm expecting thud down to the 50 DMA as the S&P500 is looking a little overbought ... Mind you, if others feel this way and start taking profits, it'll not be overbought for long.

[winner69]

This chart suggests the S&P should be higher than it is ..... just needs a PE expansion of a few points

US business is on fire

[belgarion]

It would take a move back to 1,484 to get the benchmark back to this long-term mean P/E. ... To get back to that average P/B, the benchmark would need to increase to 1,491.
...
They added: "In order for the dividend yield to get back to its historical average relative to US Treasuries, either the 10-Year yield would have to rise back above 2 percent, the S&P 500 would have to rally to 1,410, or you would have to see some combination of the two."
Stocks are cheaper than they've been in two decades (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-cheaper-theyve-two-decades-195422624.html;_ylt=Aj.xcDEYtBAMXj6ialB_56miuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQzZGIzZXNoBG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdH JvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwM1ZjlhYzZjNC1jYjk0LTM4NDMtOWE3OC01 ZWRhNWM5ODI3ZjAEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDNG UxOGQxNzAtNDVmYy0xMWUxLWE1NTktNzgxMmJkNWNjZjc1;_yl g=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3Rh aWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv= 3)

[Hoop]

Belg...bad news :( ...MA200/50 crosses (golden cross death cross) are unreliable when the index crabs sideways.
Winner...bad news :(...the S&P 500 earnings are at record levels and deemed by the market not to go higher but to ease down from now on...so the market has factored in this unsubstainable rise.

Hey guys ...just to prove I'm not a permabear

Good news :t_up:..On the 3 January the DOW Ind and Transport confirmed each others primary trend break In DOW Theory this signals a return to a cyclic bull market cycle. I was rather skeptical about this cycle switch with all the crap going on around the world. (this DOW Theory market cycle assessment has got about a 16% failure rate)
Better Good news :t_up:...S&P500 has confirmed the DOWs with its own Primary trend break at the end of last week so it to is now back in a Bull market cycle

[belgarion]

Hoop ... I remember Phaedrus posted an analysis of golden/death crosses and concluded they were pretty unreliable too over longer periods but were more reliable over the last few cycles. Not sure I'd agree with you that the S&P500 is "crabbing sideways" tho ... Dec 11 low higher than Oct 11 low - next low should confirm?

I was looking for any good news I could find (as there's b'gger all on the NZ50 and AORDs) I thought I'd focus on these. At least they get everyone interested.

Pretty much fully invested in the US at present but not taking any chances so stops are short ... that said, its been good for 20% plus since Dec with only a few stops firing. On last calc ... I'm just beating the index so nothing to boast about there ... Still better the AORDs and NZ50 tho!

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 January 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 continues on its path to fresh multi-month Highs with a 23 January 2012 High *1322.28 - new advances however appear laboured and lead-footed as market internals remain high in overbought territory - today's Trin showed a very tame bullish *0.91

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX indeed chopped all the way down to a new Low *18.28 definitely below the bullish inspired *19.63 level, but real bullish rips are non-excistent - the strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks remain stubbornly below zero in negative territory and below support, while the very weak stocks are trending up

DXYO chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the DXYO bounced off its 50-dsma - mildly-

Market Internals chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the New Highs index remains negative divergent - short term money flows at extreme levels - institutional shift of direction remains negative divergent - institutional selling starting to develop a positive divergent to the NYA-index

...as a result, 75% fully invested portfolio protection in place *1301

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 26 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 index advanced further leaving the 19 to 24 January 2012 congestion High *1322.28 behind - ticking along steady, adding another multi-month High *1328.30, just shy of the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91 - the immediate attraction is to take the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91 out to challenge the 26 July 2011 High *1338.51

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX Close *18.31 stayed below the bullish *19.63 level

CMC SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the index continues to trade deeper into overbought territory with risk of a bearish strike increasing - as a result, 75% capital protection *1301 in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -Data point 27 January 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 26 January 2012 SPX 500 took out the 27 July 2011 High *1331.91and nibbled higher into the 26 July 2012 market with a *1333.47 High - harsh rejection (Trin: *1.91) pushed the index back for a first test of the 19 to 24 January 2012 congestion *1315 support - the intraday Low *1313.60 as well as a Close below trendline current *1320 support drawn off the 29 December 2012 Open *1249.75 increase risks for further weakness ahead - immediate attraction to the downside is the 19 to 24 January 2012 congestion including the *1306.06 Low

Liquidity Inflows chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...so far, huge Long Term Trending Fed. Liquidity, Institutional Investors, and Foreign Liquidity Inflows kept pushing the market -deeper into overbought

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...although the VIX setting new Lows, trading remains rangebound within the developing declining wedge pattern - there is a 90% chance of an upside break-out - the 23 January 2012 marks the start of the break-out window with increasing risk of the event occuring at any time

...as a result, 75% capital protection *1301 in place

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

9'ish points to go ... talk about slow motion! If a cross does happen, I'm expecting thud down to the 50 DMA as the S&P500 is looking a little overbought ... Mind you, if others feel this way and start taking profits, it'll not be overbought for long.

2 points to go ... And looking quite resilient ...

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 February 2012

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 continues to consolidate below the recent 26 January 2012 *1333.47 High - downside price action off *1333.47 remains considered but a string of lower Closes and a bearish bias in the market suggests a continuation into a corrective drive

CMC Markets SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...daily price rolls over gently pointing down to the 27 October 2011 High *1292.66 support and with todays Trin: *1.38 leaves the bears in charge

NYSE D_Vol/Institutional Selling chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the NYSE dvol ticks up above resistance while an institutional selling uptrend redflags the current market

FTL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
stocktiming.com: ...strong stocks and FTL(follow the leader/very strong)-stocks so far dropped 69.3% off the 19 January High *228 - suggests Mutuals, Hedges, Institutions won't keep buying at higher prices when the underlying stocks are not increasing their sales and profits at the same rate - combined with a stop in inlowing liquidity sets the market at high risk of a precipitous drop

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX remains trading within the descending wedge

...as a result, portfolio protection remains set *75% in a market trading below the 23 January 2012 High *1322.28 on a Close basis

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 2 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 traded passed the 23 January 2012 High *1322.28 in an attempt to turn the tide towards fresh Highs above the 26 January 2012 High *1333.47 - now needs to take out the 25 January 2012 High *1328.30 to keep upside pressure on

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX remains trading within the descending wedge and getting more squezzed heading towards the 8 February 2012

...although higher prizes are possible with the 26 July 2011 High *1338.51 and the 25 July 2011 High *1344.32 in the near vicinity, the overbought condition in the longer time frames are worsening and warrant a continuos cautious approach to more upside - as a result, portfolio protection remains set *75%, increasing in 5 point steps with new higher Highs

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!!




... (Yawn ... if you're not well in already you've missed the fun ... :) )

[winner69]

Market liked the jobs data .... this guy says what a load of crock ..... "......there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trimtabs-explains-why-todays-very-very-suspicious-nfp-number-really-down-29-million-past-2-mont


Never mind ..... we have a golden cross

[winner69]

Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!! Golden cross !!!




... (Yawn ... if you're not well in already you've missed the fun ... :) )

What time frames you using Belg?

[winner69]

and a bit on google

Composite Indicator: Since 1950, there have been 27 years (including 2012) where all three above indicators were positive. Full year gains followed 92.3% of the time

[belgarion]

What time frames you using Belg?

does post 1161 answer?

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 6 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...in one big sweep (Trin: *0.58), the market took out the 25 January 2012 High *1328.30 and the 26 January 2012 High *1333.47 and closed higher *1344.90, above the 25 July 2011 High *1344.32 - the intraday High *1345.34 penetrades the 31 May/1 June 2011 High *1345.20 - suggests dermination to challenge the *1350/*1360 level into the 2 May 2011 TOP *1370.58 level

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade closed *17.10 outside of the descending wedge with bullish implications - as long as it does not jump back to set a bearish tone into the market

COT chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...and the small investor drives the market stampede up to the 31 January 2011 - nice - 80% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 February 2012-

Richard Russell: "If you listen carefully, you can hear the heart-beat of the market. It’s a slow, heavy beat, as if the market is waiting for something. That something is going to be BIG. Bigger than what anyone is expecting"
http://pragcap.com/richard-russell-2012s-market-moving-event-will-be-an-iranisrael-war

Liquidity chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...Friday showed another increase in Liquidity while in high inflow territory

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX closed firmly inside the descending wedge keeping bearish undertones alive

stocktiming.com: the Institutional Index 'Core' holdings negatively divergent with the rest of the markets - concerns are that the amount of inflowing Lliquidity has not lifted all the boats in the water in the same manner by this sea of money - Institutional Investors are disturbed, it is "not their liquidity" driving the market and their stocks are not moving at the same pace when they should

...as a result, 80% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 8 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 7 February 2012 SPX 500 market pushed higher passed the 21 July 2011 High *1347.00 to close *1347.05 after setting an intraday High *1349.24 - with selling almost non-existent at the intraday High, the immediate attraction is to push higher passed the *1350/*1360 level into the 2 May 2011 *1370.58 Top - although selling at the intraday High was almost non-existent, the Trin: *1.38 tells of careful selling into strength

...charts for thought:
PUT/CALL chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
VIX_SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
Stocks >50-dma chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...higher prizes can not be ruled out -nice- 80% portfolio protection in place increasing to 85% in the *1350/*1360 level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 9 February 2012 SPX 500 market traded to an intraday High *1354.32 just shy of the 7 July 2011 High *1356.48 - selling at the Highs remains tame - and the index closed strong near the intraday High - further up the price ladder leading to the 2 May 2011 *1370.58 Top are the 7 July 2011 High *1356.48 and the 10 May 2011 High *1359.44 sitting as attractive, immediate targets to be tackled

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...a positive VIX divergence on display for the last 4 trading days - its apex occurs within the next 8 trading days, but a breakout could happen anytime during the period

...higher prizes can not be ruled out as long as price action remains above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52, but closing below the 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 suggests high risk of lower prices ahead - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Top of Head Stuff:

...SPX 500 tested *1337 and closed below the 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 - the VIX testing its 50-dsm and closed bearish *20.79 outside the descending wedge -on a line chart, the first outside Close would be above *19.60-
...as a result, the market may rally once more to test the latest High (the index is heavily overbought in the long term time frame, but has room to move up on the daily) - however, risks are now very high, a corrective draw down has started already - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 15 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 14 Fenruary 2012 SPX 500 market continues its sideways trade below the 9 February 2012 High *1354.32 closing above 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63 - staying well clear of the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 - downside price action above 9 February 2012 Low *1344.63_the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 failed so far to inflict any real damage to the bullish market bias - continuous liquidity inflows near the present congestion Lows has so far prevented the onset of a selling stampede

VIX charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade briefly jolted above resistance and keeps skidding along above it but real damage so far appears to be under liquidity control unless a more serious challenge to the bullish bias arises

...a Close above the bearish inspired *23.44 level could act as the more serious challenge to the grip of a constant inflow of liquidity - below the *23.44 ceiling, a possible sideways VIX action would be unable to overcome the bullish bias in the market for some 'New Highs' to come yet

...nevertheless, the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high, a corrective draw down has started already or will become more meaningful in the near future - 85% portfolio protection in place

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

A77, that overbought condition may last for quite a while as many unwind longer bond positions ... I don't see this indicator in a negitive light at this time (or for quite q few months to come for that matter).

[ananda77]

A77, that overbought condition may last for quite a while as many unwind longer bond positions ... I don't see this indicator in a negitive light at this time (or for quite q few months to come for that matter).

...agree, Belgarion could go on for a while longer as the market is in its third leg up counting from the 31 March 2009 - the longest leg - driven by the public investor - so far the market happy with little sell-offs which are actually easy to trade - a big temporary sell-off however is due

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 16 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 15 February 2012 SPX 500 set a new intraday congestion High *1355.87, just a fraction below the 7 July 2011 Top *1356.48 - this time round, the sell-off following the Intra High had a more vicious tone to it, but in the end, the bullish bias remains intact above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 key level - despite the roll over in the daily, the hourly market now extremely oversold and some consolidation of todays losses can be expected

VIX charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX penetraded the 50-dsma current *21.64 with an Intraday High *21.77, but settled well clear of the bearish inspired *23.44 level

...despite expecting a very volatile challenge around the *1337 key support, for now, portfolio protection reduced to 50% *1337.87 above the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52_below the bearish inspired *23.44 key level

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 17 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bulls clearly dominated the 16 February 2012 market setting a new 2012 intraday High *1359.02 - unfortunately unable to drive the stake through the 3 May 2011 Top *1359.84, the index dangles precariously below the *1360 mark - denting the bullish show of strength alongside the Dow_Nasdaq companion markets which failed to surpass yesterday's intra Highs -

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX story keeps repeating the bullish mantra unable to close on top of the 50-dsma current *21.47_the bearish inspired *23.44

...the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection increased to 85% *1359

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 21 February 2011-

COT chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...to the 14 February 2012, the dominant driver remains the public investor - larger speculators selling into strength in tune with the public investor driving up prices - reducing their selling when enthusiasm for higher prices is falling

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 left its congestion range with a new 17 February 2012 High *1363.40 above the 15 February 2012 *1355.87 congestion High - heading higher towards the 2 May 2012 Top *1370.58 - price action successfully tested the *1337.00 support level and consequently setting a new bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...for the VIX trade, a trading range below the *23.44 resistance and above the *18.00 support would be supportive of higher prices

......the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection remains at 85%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 February 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 21 February 2012 SPX 500 market had a first unsuccessful meeting with the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 with an intraday High *1367.76 before selling knocked the index back - however, selling did no damage to the bullish trade with an intraday Low *1358.11 - comfortably above the new bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range

Institutional Selling chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...instituional selling trending up to sideways since January

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...with inflowing liquidity remaining high, the VIX trade appears to move sideways supporting upward price pressure

...the markets remain heavily overbought in the long term time frame - risks remain very high an interim Top is building - portfolio protection remains at 85%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 February 2011-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 22 February 2012 SPX 500 market delivered more downside but still closed above the bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range
- the trade appears to drive the index up in a step up consolidation mode, delivering excellent trading opportunities in the hourly short term frame oscillating from extreme overbought to extreme oversold - today's violation of 15 February 2012 High *1355.83 with an intraday Low *1355.23 however introduces some weakness to the bullish set-up that could invite more downside to challenge the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21
- trading down to the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21 or lower intraday would deliver a strong enough oversold condition in the hourly to motivate the market into a push past the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58
- a Close below the 10 February 2012 High *1351.21 with the 6 February 2012 Low *1337.52 as an initial target would be a serious attempt to wear off the extreme overbought condition in the weekly frame

VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX currently stuck close to the *18.00 support confirms the continuation of the bullish market bias even during down days

...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Ananda quote..."...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%..."

I agree...S&P 500 closed on it's 1363 resistance line. Risk v Reward shows far too much risk. Chart formation rising wedge is bearish. Most commentators/investors are too bullish and too complacent (low VIX 16.8).....that indicates most are already "in the market" reducing the amount of future buyers in the short term future (bearish).


http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50024022012.png

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 24 February 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 23 February 2012 SPX 500 market followed the hourly script with a successful test in the low level of the bullish inspired *1351_*1355 support range, rallying off an intraday Low *1352.28. The bullish rally took out the 22 February 2012 *1362.70 on the way and motored passed the 17 February High *1363.40 as well to a strong Close *1363.46
-in the short term hourly trade system, price barely pulled out of oversold with an eleven point lift making it unlikely, the bears will see a lot of honey in a down strike at this point. The immediate attraction for the market is rather to take out the 21 February 2012 High *1367.76 and drive the index past the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 into the *1400 Psych barrier

VIX Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the bullish VIX trade supports the go for a higher high before market enthusiasm for higher highs exhausts itself. However, the apparent bullish day also carried a very neutral = slightly bearish Trin *1.04 mark

...the SPX 500 market continues to deliver excellent intraday trading opportunities but remains extremely overbought with no respite in sight in the longer term frame
- high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows remain - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 27 February 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 24 February 2012 market continues crawling cautiously up the 5 May 2011 price, adding a fresh multi-month High *1368.92 to the list.
Interestingly, the day's Close came in *1365.74, above the 5 May 2011 Open *1365.21, suggesting the market's determination to break the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 at least marginally at a minimum. Trading above the 5 May 2011 Top *1370.58 opens up potential to challenge the *1400 Psych barrier

VIX Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX trade below *18.00 is all for it

Institutional Selling Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
but the institutional selling up-trend suggests selling into strength

SPX 500 Cot Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
and the public investor appears to get cold feet with no one in sight to take the slack

...so far, liquidity keeps the market primed while the step up consolidation pattern wears off some of the extreme oversold condition. However, profit margins are geting more and more squeezed making an exposure into this market a high risk adventure unless a decent draw-down offers a more reasonable investment approach - portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 1 March 2012

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...after the 29 February 2012 SPX 500 price action sets a new multi month intraday High *1378.04, price distributed down to an intraday Low *1363.81 just above the 17 February 2012 High *1363.40. After today, risk are high for the market to range trade down to the *1355/*1351 support range before testing current short term trendline resistance *1375 in the hourly frame. A rejection in that level and follow through downside that violates the *1355/*1351 support range will set the index up for a 19 January 2012 High *1315.49 challenge

...portfolio protection at 90%

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Dear Reader,

due to increasing workloads, unable to continue updating the website. Thank You for Your patronage

Best wishes and Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Thanks for the vast efforts A77. I for one have enjoyed and learnt from your approach. Keep well and winning.

[Hoop]

A77
Wish you all the best and hope to see you back sometime in the future
cheers Hoop

[belgarion]

http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/pimco-bill-gross-qe3-inflation-muted-growth-way-115229488.html;_ylt=AkH1o0P6n9GJ4eHjGnfhnFGiuYdG;_ ylu=X3oDMTQ0OThnNDNxBG1pdANGUCBUaGUgRGFpbHkgVGlja2 VyBHBrZwNlMTMxZmFiNy02ZDQ3LTNmYzYtOGMxYy1jMWI1OGQ5 YjM0ODcEcG9zAzEEc2VjA01lZGlhU2VjdGlvbkxpc3QEdmVyAz VjODIzYjcwLTZmNmUtMTFlMS1hZGRmLTMwNzQ1OWFkMjllMg--;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRw c3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ ylv=3

What I think Bill Gross is trying to say is ... "Where will all that money from the unwinding of the bonds bubble go?"

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 March 2012-

COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...commercial traders at inflection point:

-if they commit to higher prices ahead, their strategy will show an accumulation of puts to be maximum short positioned at a future market top
-if they commit to lower prices ahead, their strategy will show an accumulation of calls to be maximum long positioned at a future market bottom
-a consolidation period may be proceeding the final direction

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 22 March 2012-

COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the Nasdaq 100 picture perfect of a large hedged commercial position signalling high risk, everyone else will be going to the chopping block

-go long at your own peril here-

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 April 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com

...the teaser market up continues with no one in sight to sell to - no substantial corrective sell-off as cash get shuffled around from one market into the other - providing excellent trading opportunities in the short term frame

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 5 April 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...accumulating long positions below *1400 (-)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 10 April 2012-

-COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
as expected, commercials reducing the fully hedged short position into a sell-down with large traders selling
COT Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
-interestingly enough, large traders moving out of the Nasdaq and appear accumulating into the SPX 500 at the same time, since the public can not be taken to the chopping block

...as a result, although the market has set an interim Top *1422.38 on 2 April 2012, until the public will be teased back into the market, it is very unlikely the current advance has come to an early end

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...todays SPX 500 market supported at the 29 February High *1378.04 coinciding with trendline support drawn off the the 4 October 2011 Low *1115.68 and confirmed with the 25 November 2011 Low*1158.66 - short term frame very oversold justifying a long trade or careful long accumulation off the *1378 area - however risks are, the market wants to test its 50-dsma current *1371.33, just a stroll away, and coinciding with the 13 March 2012 accumulation market Low *1371.92 - no demand at this level and a correction appears inevitable with high risks of selling-off to the *1300

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Quote from Post #1186 24 Feb 2012

Ananda quote..."...whatever, in terms of risk, the markets remain extremely overbought in the longer term frame with high risks of a sudden drop in liquidity inflows - portfolio protection at 90%..."

I agree...S&P 500 closed on it's 1363 resistance line. Risk v Reward shows far too much risk. Chart formation rising wedge is bearish. Most commentators/investors are too bullish and too complacent (low VIX 16.8).....that indicates most are already "in the market" reducing the amount of future buyers in the short term future (bearish).



Updated Chart from that one at the top of this thread page
closed 1359 broken its 1363 support
The S&P 500 cyclic Bull has been wandering the Secular Graveyard so it wouldn't surprise me if it has died.....

Testing and rebounding off its 1310 TA target would suggest that the index is recovering from a bull market correction and all is well
Breaking the 1310 would send a warning that the cyclic bull could be sick

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50010042012.png

[ananda77]

Hoop:
http://i43.tinypic.com/257ln50.jpg

...am consider the SPX 500 *1320_*1340 area strongly supported

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Yes Ananda, I had that red dotted in as a support area ..I failed to mention it ..It would seem that it would need extra downward pressure to push down thru this zone...It will interesting to see what happens from here as it is the season for this typical American catch cry...... "sell in May and go away"

[Hoop]

A simple but informative TA article from Matchwatch website this morning (NZtime) http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vix-points-to-more-volatility-2012-04-20?dist=afterbell.

By Lawrence G. McMillan (lmcmillan@optionstrategist.com)
MORRISTOWN, N.J. (MarketWatch) — The broad stock market is in a relatively tight trading range. There have been some quite volatile days of late, but all within the confines of the trading range.
This can be seen via the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX +0.12% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/SPX?link=MW_story_quote) . After SPX broke down through 1,390 over a week ago, it had one swift move downward, but since then the market has swung back and forth on an almost daily basis. Many of these moves occur without seemingly much logic behind them. In fact, the CBOE’s Volatility Index VIX -5.01% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/VIX?link=MW_story_quote) might offer the best clues as to how to view market direction.
The SPX chart still shows heavy resistance at 1,390. That level was challenged on five out of six consecutive trading days. So far it has held, thus making it a very strong resistance area.. The 20-day moving average of SPX, which is now declining, is also just above 1,390. These resistance areas are not defined precisely, so one would have to allow for a slight overshoot (to 1,400, say) and still say that SPX was encountering resistance.
On the downside, the major support is at 1,340. For the first time, that level is below the major bull market trend line that defines this bull market over the last six months or so (see chart below). In fact, this week’s lows have been nearly touching and then bouncing off of that trend line. As a result SPX has been “pinned” in a an ever-narrowing range between the resistance at 1,390 and the support of the major bull market trend line.
Therefore, if that 1,340 level is tested, it will be an extremely important test, for that will mean that the trend line is being broken as well. It might well be the case that 1,340 will hold and thus there would be a new bull market trend line at a lesser slope, but if 1,340 were to give way, a much more bearish scenario would unfold.

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2012/04/20/Photos/mcmillan/spx.JPG?uuid=2c254b48-8b1b-11e1-82e5-002128049ad6

Equity-only put-call ratios remain on sell signals, which originated a week ago. These ratios are now climbing their charts swiftly, solidifying those previous sell signals. Since they emanated from such a low point on the chart, they could prove to be long-lasting signals.
Market breadth had become very oversold just over a week ago. The ensuing rally (three strong days out of four) was partly in response to that heavy oversold condition. The breadth oscillators have now turned to buy signals. This is the only indicator that has rolled over from bearish to bullish, but breadth signals have flip-flopped back and forth for nearly two months now, so its value is somewhat suspect.
Now that the market is suddenly volatile and active now (especially in the last two weeks), it can be seen in the breadth figures. On six days out of seven “stocks only” breadth was greater than +2,000 or less than -2,000. To me, this means that there is once again a great uniformity of daily activity amongst big traders. The correlation of stock moves to the broad market moves tend to increase in periods like this — much to the chagrin of “stock pickers.”
The volatility indexes VIX -5.01% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/VIX?link=MW_story_quote) XX:VXO -4.83% (http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/VXO?countrycode=XX&link=MW_story_quote) have not responded with roaring enthusiasm to this week’s rally attempts or to selloffs either, for that matter. Consider the chart of VIX below. It has risen back into the 17-21 trading range, which previously held sway back in February. As long as VIX is in this range, I would expect the market to be quite volatile, but probably without much definitive direction. A breakout over 21, however, would be quite bearish for stocks. Conversely, a breakdown below 17 would be bullish for stocks. This is the guideline that I was referring to when I said earlier that VIX might a good guideline for market direction. In other words, despite the market’s volatile one-day moves, if VIX is still within the 17-21 range, I wouldn’t chase those moves. But if VIX breaks out, then so should the stock market.

http://ei.marketwatch.com/Multimedia/2012/04/20/Photos/mcmillan/vix%20%282%29.JPG?uuid=2fbcd668-8b1b-11e1-82e5-002128049ad6

Another indicator that is important is the Composite Implied Volatility (CIV) of all stocks’ options. This indicator gave a sell signal back on April 4, just as SPX was braking down below 1,400. That sell signal remains in effect.
The term structure of the VIX futures has been bullish for quite some time now. The VIX futures are trading with substantial premium and the term structure slopes steeply upward. This positive construct has lasted so long that one might be tempted to think it will never change, but it eventually will — just not yet, apparently. Meanwhile, the April VIX futures expired this past Wednesday (last trading day was Tuesday), and so May now becomes the front month. May is trading today with a premium of 2.40, which is slightly high, but not overly so — especially considering where premiums have been in the last few months. Longer-term futures premiums are still very large. October, for example, settled at a premium of 8.75 over VIX.
In summary, SPX is bouncing back and forth between support at the trend line and resistance at 1,390. It is suggested that one observe VIX as a clue to which direction the market might take on a breakout.

Lawrence G. McMillan is president of McMillan Analysis Corp. He is an experienced trader and money manager and is the author of the best-selling book, “ Options as a Strategic Investment (http://www.optionstrategist.com/products/options-strategic-investment-4th-edition) ” and editor of the “ MarketWatch Options Trader (http://store.marketwatch.com/webapp/wcs/stores/servlet/PremiumNewsletters_MarketWatchOptionsTrader?dist=I BFHM1AYM) ” newsletter.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 23 April 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market most likely heading for a second test into the current *1363/*1355 support area with high risk of dipping further into the fortified *1340/*1320 range

COT Charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...again, in the absence of anyone to take to the chopping block, equity markets are merely consolidating for the next move higher above *1340 fortified support - a break below *1340 would weaken the bullish bias down to *1320
...at this stage, the market is expected to hold in the *1320/*1340 support range

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data pint 25 April 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the 23 April 2012 bounce off the *1358.79 intraday Low continues into today's Close *1372.04 with expectations, further gains into the short term overhead resistance area *1400 are likely considering the positive tone in the market

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 3 May 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market continues its step-up consolidaton pattern reaching out towards the 2 April 2012 High *1422.38 - currently, any violation of the *1400 level would weaken the bullish resolve to take out the April 2012 High - a Close below the strongly supported *1394 level introduces high risk for the market to re-test the strongly supported *1358 level at a minimum

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

i am currently trading from the short side on the sp500, closed 2x short positions (+60 SPX points ) on friday as im expecting a rally from current oversold levels , this should provide an excellent short entry next week.

price should not exceed 1400 so will look for a good short entry below this level with a target around 1320 , its a C wave so should be swift and violent.

[Entrep]

Thanks for the chart dumbass

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 7 May 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
..after breaking the *1394 support, the SPX 500 market continued lower - now heading towards the fortified *1363/10 April 2012 Low *1357.38 support as the next logical target in the vicinity. A Break below the 10 April 2012 Low *1357.38 on a Close basis would set the index up for a 6 March 2012 Low *1340.03 challenge with potential to reach lower into the *1320 support range

COT Charts: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...again, in the absence of anyone to take to the chopping block, equity markets are merely consolidating for the next move higher above *1340 fortified support - a break below *1340 would weaken the bullish bias down to *1320 - in the longer term frame, the bulls continue to drive this market into new Highs.

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Pushing to new highs.....I have differing views to that of Dumbass and Ananda.

My view stems from repeated historical facts and Secular cycle disciplines ...Previous S&P and DOW Secular Bear Market Cycle Charts have all shown waves of equal tops....so while this Secular Bear Cycle lives on, history says that anything above 1383 has to be considered a low chance. The previous large accumulating wave in this S&P500 cyclic bull market ran it past 1383 up to 1420...but that proved unsustainable even with unexpected better company profit announcements. The annualised PE Ratio is the downward pressure culprit and sharemarket theory has proved that the PE Ratio is the primary driver of any sharemarket....While this secular bear is alive the annualised PE Ratio will keep on a downtrend....

Investor attitudes during secular bears is one of wanting better yield rates than before and a lower appetite for speculation.

See my Post#256 page 18 21-Feb-2012 Investing Strategies and Bear Markets thread Note the Minyanvales DOW 104 year chart (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?5171-Investing-strategies-and-secular-bear-markets/page18)

[dumbass]

i am currently trading from the short side on the sp500, closed 2x short positions (+60 SPX points ) on friday as im expecting a rally from current oversold levels , this should provide an excellent short entry next week.

price should not exceed 1400 so will look for a good short entry below this level with a target around 1320 , its a C wave so should be swift and violent.

The market showing resilience in the face of adversity at present.

holding shorts from 1364 and will maintain a target around 1320 area. europe is selling any rallies and the us is buying dips , when this resolves

i think this market is going rally to new highs , so starting to think long entry position build around 1320 - 1340.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data ppoint 15 May 2012-

SPX 500 Chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market now closing in on the lower range of the support band with the index nearing extreme oversold in the daily frame - besides, the rainbow financial press are getting hot on Europe disasters and fanfaring bearish overtones to herd everyone to short the market

...time to collect on the long side -the trend is your friend only for so long amigo-

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

i am currently trading from the short side on the sp500, closed 2x short positions (+60 SPX points ) on friday as im expecting a rally from current oversold levels , this should provide an excellent short entry next week.

price should not exceed 1400 so will look for a good short entry below this level with a target around 1320 , its a C wave so should be swift and violent.

holding shorts from 1364 currently 1330 heading into potential reversal zone around 1320 area where i will exit shorts.

i am now starting to think long entry and as i have picked up a lot of points on the way down i can afford an agressive entry.

this could be a multi month long to new highs.

[Entrep]

Busted right through 1320 - whats your thoughts dumbass?

SPI looking even worse!

[belgarion]

Stops have fired on all but 1 of my holdings. Maybe set a little tight as this PIIGS fiasco seems to becoming an annual event. On the Macro side Europe, China, Australia and now NZ all look to be either reducing central bank i-rates or pumping additional liquidity into the system. How long will this pull back last? Probably until November!

[dumbass]

hi entrep , targets hit over night on shorts , i anticipated we see a bottoming process around 1320 , there was heavy fib clusters
around this area, to see no bounce at all with a gap open suggests we are moving down to 1290 if this area does not hold then
my desire to long would be reviewed. hope this helps.

[Hoop]

Quote from Post #1186 24 Feb 2012


Updated Chart from that one at the top of this thread page
closed 1359 broken its 1363 support
The S&P 500 cyclic Bull has been wandering the Secular Graveyard so it wouldn't surprise me if it has died.....

Testing and rebounding off its 1310 TA target would suggest that the index is recovering from a bull market correction and all is well
Breaking the 1310 would send a warning that the cyclic bull could be sick

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/SP50010042012.png

This present downtrend (correction?) on the S&P500 came as no surprise to TA people. The commentary on this thread became increasingly negative back in February.

I posted that updated chart on 11th April...It is still amazingly relevant 36 days later... That chart was a snapshot which outlined the near future expectancy of the investor group at that precise moment in time...the chart still being relevant 36 days later indicates that the S&P500 is experiencing a systematic orderly sell down with no panic and no surprises....everything is still going according to plan...so far!!:)

This "orderly/ still going according to plan" correction drop so far also suggests that perhaps this present day Greek/French media frenzy event was one of the many variables already factored in the market as a near certainty back then in February..

TA is made up of diverse discipline groups. Dumbass and Ananda have different disciplines to me, 1320 was on their radar (actually the wave shows either 1321 or 1310,,doesn't it??)...on my radar (36 days ago chart) was a 70% chance that the TA target 1310 would be reached, with a rapid drop in % chance going lower than that S&R area just under that 1310 level and another big % chance drop below that 1285 support area....so using 11th April chart the risk of S&P500 falling below that 1308ish area was low.

Theoretically, atm, this "orderly" market should be perceiving that 1300 area as the bottom for the time being because disciplined buying would recommence and raise the index again.

36 days later the variables on my old chart (above) have obviously altered... If this 1300-1310 area that we are at is breached that chances the index falling to 1285 would be very high, but below that 1285 there are a number of S&R areas so the risk of another large percentage fall is still very low.

Also an investor should take in historical facts......A bull market correction can be up to 20% but its usually around that rule of thumb 10% area ....1420 - (1420 x 10%) = 1278

Most disciplines are concurring around that 1320 /1310 area (including the contrarions who suggest a less than 10% correction) So chances are we are near or at the bottom

EDIT:- The DOW has a TA Target of 12100 (Post #842 DOW thread) (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6114-Dow/page57) chances may be lower than 70% in this case as there is a strong support area around the 12240. Presently at 12442 so just less than 2% drop to reach that support area...(possible bottom??)..This 2% further drop would relate to 1280ish for the S&P500 close to the 1285 support area

Another feasible scenario is a continued downtrend of another 3% to that DOW TA 12100 target area....this would relate to a 3% fall on the S&P500 index to 1264 which happens to be another big support area.

[ananda77]

Trader Update -data point 18 May 2012-

SPX 500 chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the SPX 500 market broke out of the *1340/*1320 support zone making its way towards its 200-dsma (still rising but in danger of levelling out and turning down) current *1278.04 - the market needs to hold the range above the 200-dsma and consolidate with a rise back into the green support zone on a Close basis in order to set the first signal of a potential end to the downside.


VIX chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com
...the VIX finally broke out of its 5-mnth old trading range heading towards its 200-dsma (still sloping down) but in danger of levelling out and rising. The market is at inflection point and need to consolidate below the 200-dsma and close inside the trading range to set a more positive tone in the market.

...accumulate on the long side with responsible stops in the 200-dsma approximity.

Kind Regards

[belgarion]

Hmmm ... Hoop, those massive dips your graph shows are circa 20% aren't they? And the causes (PIIGS!), then as now, are much the same.

A longer trend line following the bottoms from last three suggests 1,250

A medium trend line following the last two suggests 1,150 ... this one feels a bit more likely because the causes are much the same.

If good/bad things come in threes then it'll 1,250 or 1,150. :)

[discl: weak attempt at gallows humour]

[winner69]

Hussman says another 25% to 35% to come .......he says 'As for my opinion about market conditions, I have to agree with Richard Russell, who said last week "I think we're now in the second half of the primary bear market that started back in 2007. It won't be pretty." '
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc120521.htm

A bit of DOW theory included as well

[dumbass]

hi entrep , targets hit over night on shorts , i anticipated we see a bottoming process around 1320 , there was heavy fib clusters
around this area, to see no bounce at all with a gap open suggests we are moving down to 1290 if this area does not hold then
my desire to long would be reviewed. hope this helps.

reversal at 1290 nailed entered long 2 positions , its a little early to say if this is the bottom of the downtrend but looks promising so far.

needs to clear 1360 pivot to give complete confidence in long position.

im going to run this as a long term trade into the 1500's.

[Entrep]

Thanks again for the new update dumbass. TBH found myself a little overexposed on this pull-back/correct/whatever it is and your analysis is reassuring (I am bullish too).

Cheers

[Hoop]

1500 Hmmmmmm...It seems unsustainable profit increases combined with a downtrending annualised PE ratio is not problem for you guys...eh?

[belgarion]

US house price looked to have turned the corner. consumers will return. but 1500?

[Hoop]

All went well today S&P500 rising up on the back of 1.8+% increases in Europe Equities then...oooops:(...sudden drop.....1310 (that magical number...eh:D) saved the day by bouncing off it to finish at 1317 up 1 (+0.05%). They are a nervous bunch over in Wall St atm...eh

Last night would have been a little disapointing for you wouldn't it Dumbass??.. The good news is that it seems the short/medium term retracement (pullback) still looks bullish up to 1360..... although my personal view is the longer term outlook looks crappy.

As you say that 1360 area is the place to watch..