What are PGC shares really worth going forward?

[whatsup]

With this, IMHO, debacle re this rights issue and the proposed SPP and other fund raising intentions it is very hard for me to value PGC going forward once the rights date passes. I personally think that it could be in the .35 range as its future totally depends on the success of "investors- weather true investors or under wrighters etc" fronting up with the rights money!!!

[Xerof]

knot shore weather ewe are wright oar rong

[upside_umop]

whatsup, whatwithallthenewthreadsallthetime?

I think you'll find a few broker reports giving DCF valuations around. I havent checked them out but they always give a few 'heads up' given they get to speak to top level management and ask the questions.

[whatsup]

knot shore weather ewe are wright oar rong

Gr8 kawl Xerof!

[shambles]

Forsyth Barr are valuing at .50

[Dr_Who]

Forsyth Barr are valuing at .50

How did they derive a valuation of 50 cents?

[kizame]

How did they derive a valuation of 50 cents?

Nice even round number and just north of but not below 41cents,and would give confidence(haha) to anybody who bought in now.

[Balance]

Forsyth Barr are valuing at .50

South Island broker valuing a South Island company. So much for 50c.

Ask them about Feltex.

[Jim]

South Island broker valuing a South Island company. So much for 50c.

Ask them about Feltex.

Yeah they recommended a strong buy on Feltex.

[New Jersey girl]

NJG purchased a few rights, and may purchase a few more shares.

In previous 4 of the last 5 years, average profits were $32m per year, on 100m shares. They lost 55m last year from property development; but even including this in a five year average, though I don't think they will make those mistakes again, that is still $16m a year. My expectation is at least $20m per year going forward from existing business, taking into account their recent capital losses.

To this add $240m and assume an 8% return (eliminating their more expensive borrowing), and we get $40m pa ongoing earnings. Divide by 700m shares, and we get 5.6 cents per share. To my mind, 40 cents is cheap to get this level of profit.

BUt the real reason going forward is the opportunity to make MARAC a decent bank. It has a good name and supportive depositors, and a decent record (except recently) of loans to businesses. They are stripping out all dodgy loans, recapitalising, and getting a bank license. This is a good basis for a decent, albeit unexciting bank.

It may be take some time for the shareprice to increase, given the huge number of new shares and alot of overloaded underwriters. Plus, while NJG almost always invests for dividend income, I don't expect the company will be generous with dividends for some time. It needs to pour capital into Marac to generate safety and a track record of ever-rising profits (particularly if interest rates fall in time, lowering the contribution of earnings from capital reserves.) But they have the capital and seemingly the drive to do it. Out of this debacle, a decent bank will rise.

But......why didn't they issue 4:1 at 60cents not 6:1 at 40cents? The share price was well above $1, and has basically fallen to the issue price. Does anyone believe existing shareholders were well served by this? Or was the real price of getting underwriters on board.

[whatsup]

WTH is going on here up .06 today or is it under/sub under writers buying to place a floor under the SP in order to value their position , only $450 k traded so far today so not a huge amount to date when the under written postion is considered!!

[beacon]

PGC is on the home run guys ...

Worth a lot more today than it was yesterday (market point-of-view only) due to Agria action. directors must have known though, and we have witnessed a (ethical?) coup. Go the directors (now substantial shareholders) ...

[yabster]

def not ethical- its called insider trading.

[jonu]

Something's rotten in the kingdom of Denmark.

It's behaviour like this that's given the NZX a bad name over the years. There should be an inquiry.

[beacon]

Something's rotten in the kingdom of Denmark.

It's behaviour like this that's given the NZX a bad name over the years. There should be an inquiry.

Forget the inquiry. All with good reason. If NZX improves their public disclosure information formats for listed stocks, that will be a good start in the right direction...

Re PGC, the punters have been weighed, they have been measured and they have been found wanting...

[Deev8]

What are PGC shares really worth going forward?

And what would they be worth going backward?
Putting Doctor Who to one side, forward is the only direction that time takes.