SRL-STRAITS RESOURCES

[clearasmud]

Just bought up large on this one.It looks very attractivedue to
1)2.25 million ton PA coal mine which underpins current SP on its own.Huge increasing cash flow plus
2)great can do management to invest all that cashflow properly
3)2 near term copper mines
4)other medium term prospects

I,m currently into oil,coal,copper,Zinc and lead and looking for good businesses at the right price.This I believe is one.Great coal & copper & gold exposure

Share price is on the move up 50% last 2 months!
Good luck and your own research.
Comments appreciated.:)

[clearasmud]

Price up 6c to 1.31 yesterday after reporting incr revenues by 35%.
Target:$1.70.

[clearasmud]

From miningnews.net

Straits on a roll

Sarah Belfield


Wednesday, July 21, 2004
STRAITS Resources notched up records for coal production and sales revenue at its 80%-held Sebuku coal mine in Indonesia during the June quarter, with the company forecasting continued strong results for its coal business over the next 18 months.

The June quarter saw the company mine 803,000 tonnes of coal and sell 664,000t for sales revenues of $22.9 million. The tonnes sold represent a 16% increase on this year's March quarter.

Coal prices received by Straits increased during the quarter as higher-priced contracts came into effect, a trend which the company says will be a feature over the next 18 months, in tandem with expected strong production performances.

Meantime at the Mt Muro gold project in Kalimantan, Indonesia, Straits defined a total resource of 319,000 gold equivalent ounces – including near-mine resources. Straits is earning a 70% stake in Mt Muro by spending around US$1 million per annum and funding the project, currently on care and maintenance, into production.

A development decision is anticipated towards the end of the current quarter, leading to operations in early 2005.

Elsewhere development progressed on schedule during the quarter for the company's Whim Creek copper project in Western Australia, where around 16,000t per annum of copper cathode is expected to be produced for three to four years from November at cash costs of US$0.78 per pound.

Straits shares were up 3 cents to $1.28 during midday trade.

[clearasmud]

looks like PE next year will be about 3 with income fm 1 coal mine and 2 copper mines.

[thekiwi]

Looking very nice ... hitting new highs.

Candlestick from yesterday could suggest a possible short term reversal, so maybe time to test new support at 128

http://home.infobahn.co.nz/images/asx/srl/20040721_daily.png

[thekiwi]

Did pull back, but not very far ... still looking good.

Volume is a bit light ... but price keeps going
http://home.infobahn.co.nz/images/asx/srl/20040809_daily.png

[clearasmud]

SRL has had a great run to $1.88 but yesterday pulled back to $1.8.
Could be a buy soon.:)

I hold

[soulman]

clearasmud - What divie are you expecting from SRL?

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by soulman

clearasmud - What divie are you expecting from SRL?


I hadn't given it much thought but a divi is on the cards[8D]

[Papillon]

SRL look like good value. Very favourable earnings forecasts by analysts. Oil prices rising. Any thoughts?

[45south]

Hi Pap
This is one of my longest held oz stocks and after your reminder picked up a few more today.
Looks likes EPS of at least 30cents, pushing towards 40.
Should have combined coal and Cu sales of at least $200m.
Shouldn't forget the gold coming on stream as well.
Sitting on heaps of cash, and eyeing up other projects as well.
Theres only one way this ones going.
Cheers Papillon

[Papillon]

Hi 45south

Shaw Stockbroking and Austock analyse SRL and have E05 and E06 at highs of 37c and 56c. This would have P/E06 = 3.3!

[45south]

Hi pap
Sounds great to me. With gold and coal the field is covered.
In for a rerating I suspect.

[SEC]

One of the most overlooked mid tier miners on the ASX, and in my opinion the next one ripe for consolidation. As mentioned in the Coal thread I bought a swag of Straits stock in February. Already up 55% since then, it is still trading at a miserly 08PE of 8 and 09PE of 7 thanks to increasing coal/copper prices and increased production. Compare that with coal miners typical 09PEs of 11 - 12 then Straits is very cheap.

Straits owns 60% of Straits Asia (which owns the Sebuku coal mine) and its stake in Straits Asia accounts for just over 2/3's of Straits' market capitalisation. A suitor could pay a premium for Straits, get the copper assets for free yet still pay a discount for the coal assets! This price anomaly can't last.

SEC

[shasta]

One of the most overlooked mid tier miners on the ASX, and in my opinion the next one ripe for consolidation. As mentioned in the Coal thread I bought a swag of Straits stock in February. Already up 55% since then, it is still trading at a miserly 08PE of 8 and 09PE of 7 thanks to increasing coal/copper prices and increased production. Compare that with coal miners typical 09PEs of 11 - 12 then Straits is very cheap.

Straits owns 60% of Straits Asia (which owns the Sebuku coal mine) and its stake in Straits Asia accounts for just over 2/3's of Straits' market capitalisation. A suitor could pay a premium for Straits, get the copper assets for free yet still pay a discount for the coal assets! This price anomaly can't last.

SEC

SRL - Opening of Hillgrove Gold Mine

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421199

[shasta]

SRL - Opening of Hillgrove Gold Mine

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421199

SRL - Operations update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421344

SEC - you still in this?

[shasta]

SRL - Operations update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421344

SEC - you still in this?

SRL - Demerger on hold?

Market didn't like it & @ $3.30 the whole entity is looking very cheap, Coal, Copper & Gold makes it a diversified miner & very profitable!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421427

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421428

[shasta]

SRL - Demerger on hold?

Market didn't like it & @ $3.30 the whole entity is looking very cheap, Coal, Copper & Gold makes it a diversified miner & very profitable!

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421427

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421428

Article from The Australian regarding SRL (who have coal, copper & gold)

Interesting they may be after nickel, zinc or lead companies?

Straits Resources ditches Asian spin-off scheme

WITH its shares off more than 50 per cent since the start of June, Straits Resources has ditched plans to split into separate metal and coal mining companies, citing poor market conditions.

Earlier this month, Straits said it was on track to spin off its Indonesian coal assets into Singapore-listed subsidiary Straits Asia Resources, which would then also be listed onthe Australian Securities Exchange.

But those plans have been undone in the past couple of weeks and yesterday Straits said the deal was off.

It also gave no indication if the plan, announced in April, would be revived at a later date.

"The existing volatility and uncertainty in the markets have changed the dynamics of what was originally contemplated," Straits chief executive Milan Jerkovic said.

Shares in the company fell to an 18-month low after the announcement.
A shareholder meeting of Straits Asia to approve the restructure was cancelled, as was the sale of Madagascar and Brunei assets that Straits Asia had agreed to buy from Straits Resources.

There would also be no dual listing of the Singapore company, Straits said.
Straits Asia chief executive Richard Ong said he agreed the deal was not as compelling as when it was inked.

Mr Jerkovic said: "The Straits Asia business continues to perform strongly and in our opinion is undervalued.

"We are committed to fulfilling the significant value potential of the Straits Asia assets for our shareholders and will continue to work hard to achieve this," he added, saying both companies would continue to explore "value-enhancing transactions".

The company, which did not return calls yesterday, said earlier this month that after the demerger, its smaller metals business would seek to grow by acquisition and that nickel, zinc and lead assets were starting to look attractive and could be undervalued.

Straits shares, which climbed as high as $8 at the end of May, ended down 27c, or 7.5 per cent, yesterday at $3.30, their lowest close since February last year.

[shasta]

Article from The Australian regarding SRL (who have coal, copper & gold)

Interesting they may be after nickel, zinc or lead companies?

Straits Resources ditches Asian spin-off scheme

WITH its shares off more than 50 per cent since the start of June, Straits Resources has ditched plans to split into separate metal and coal mining companies, citing poor market conditions.

Earlier this month, Straits said it was on track to spin off its Indonesian coal assets into Singapore-listed subsidiary Straits Asia Resources, which would then also be listed onthe Australian Securities Exchange.

But those plans have been undone in the past couple of weeks and yesterday Straits said the deal was off.

It also gave no indication if the plan, announced in April, would be revived at a later date.

"The existing volatility and uncertainty in the markets have changed the dynamics of what was originally contemplated," Straits chief executive Milan Jerkovic said.

Shares in the company fell to an 18-month low after the announcement.
A shareholder meeting of Straits Asia to approve the restructure was cancelled, as was the sale of Madagascar and Brunei assets that Straits Asia had agreed to buy from Straits Resources.

There would also be no dual listing of the Singapore company, Straits said.
Straits Asia chief executive Richard Ong said he agreed the deal was not as compelling as when it was inked.

Mr Jerkovic said: "The Straits Asia business continues to perform strongly and in our opinion is undervalued.

"We are committed to fulfilling the significant value potential of the Straits Asia assets for our shareholders and will continue to work hard to achieve this," he added, saying both companies would continue to explore "value-enhancing transactions".

The company, which did not return calls yesterday, said earlier this month that after the demerger, its smaller metals business would seek to grow by acquisition and that nickel, zinc and lead assets were starting to look attractive and could be undervalued.

Straits shares, which climbed as high as $8 at the end of May, ended down 27c, or 7.5 per cent, yesterday at $3.30, their lowest close since February last year.

Cant help thinking the market is ignoring the underlying strength of SRL & punishing it ...

Anyways the MD explains the restructure saga...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421797

[shasta]

Cant help thinking the market is ignoring the underlying strength of SRL & punishing it ...

Anyways the MD explains the restructure saga...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421797

This article suggests the likes of SRL should do better than most in these turbulent times... :confused:

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=63063&sn=Detail

[shasta]

This article suggests the likes of SRL should do better than most in these turbulent times... :confused:

http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page67?oid=63063&sn=Detail

SRL - Annual Report to Shareholders (159 pages)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421989

[shasta]

SRL - Annual Report to Shareholders (159 pages)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=421989

SRL dropped from $3.30 to $1.825 in under 3 weeks...

Wowser is SRL cheap or what...

One hell of an ugly chart...

SEC - What's the market pricing in that we don't already know?

[shasta]

SRL dropped from $3.30 to $1.825 in under 3 weeks...

Wowser is SRL cheap or what...

One hell of an ugly chart...

SEC - What's the market pricing in that we don't already know?

I have SRL on my "ridiculously undervalued list" now, here's why...

Broker valuation below to show the revenue/earnings potential

http://www.straits.com.au/files/Reports_Brokers/Macquarie_March_2008_!20080307.pdf

SRL's holding in SGX:SAR is worth $A531m (at todays price & cross FX)

SRL's market cap is a fully dilluted $A425m (at todays closing price)

Yup thats all of SRL's profitable projects, cash, holdings in other companies (both ASX & TSX) for negative $106m :eek:

SRL produces Coal, Copper, Gold & Silver, Antimony (?) & Tungsten :D

So SRL joins the likes of OZL as a mid tier diversified miner ;)

ASB Sec has SRL on P/E's of 1.3 FY09, & 1.2 FY10, with Dividends of 28c (2009) & 30c (2010).

Too cheap to ignore...(it was fantastic value at $3+ last month :eek:)

[Huang Chung]

Link to 'Pure Speculation' column in the Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24450374-18261,00.html

[shasta]

Link to 'Pure Speculation' column in the Australian.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24450374-18261,00.html

Thanks HC

Thermal Coal & Gold aye :rolleyes:

SRL should be nicely positioned then, yet is now around $1.70

Should it drop to $1.40 (god forbid:eek:), it will be priced on it's FY09 forecast EPS (ie, P/E 1) & on a 20% yield :eek:

PNA @ 45c, & SRL @ $1.70 are simply the two screaming buys of the entire ASX!

[shasta]

Thanks HC

Thermal Coal & Gold aye

SRL should be nicely positioned then, yet is now around $1.70

Should it drop to $1.40 (god forbid), it will be priced on it's FY09 forecast EPS (ie, P/E 1) & on a 20% yield

PNA @ 45c, & SRL @ $1.70 are simply the two screaming buys of the entire ASX!

SRL has closed at....wait for it $1.05 :eek:

SEC - You still in this & taking heart pills, or watching in amazement?

Thats now less than the forecast FY09 & FY10 EPS...:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Thats also putting SRL on a 26.7% yield for FY09 (28c) & 28.5% for FY10 (30c)

I can't believe a company with locked in coal contracts has been quite frankly "rogered" so badly in this market, ok all sorts of companies have been caught up among the rubbish, but SRL is a quality stock!

This should rebound much harder than most, & all i can think of is the complex nature of the SRL company has the market confused????

[Yossarian]

astonishing. just wish I had some $$$ (and bigger balls might help too)...!

[Huang Chung]

SRL has closed at....wait for it $1.05 :eek:

SEC - You still in this & taking heart pills, or watching in amazement?

Thats now less than the forecast FY09 & FY10 EPS...:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:

Thats also putting SRL on a 26.7% yield for FY09 (28c) & 28.5% for FY10 (30c)

I can't believe a company with locked in coal contracts has been quite frankly "rogered" so badly in this market, ok all sorts of companies have been caught up among the rubbish, but SRL is a quality stock!

This should rebound much harder than most, & all i can think of is the complex nature of the SRL company has the market confused????

All I've heard in the negative is that 'now is not a good time to be doing business in Indonesia' (make what you will of that) and that heavy rains have been impacting Indo coal operations.

I've opted for some Aussie coal exposure instead, picking up several parcels of both New Hope and Gloucester over the past few days.

[shasta]

All I've heard in the negative is that 'now is not a good time to be doing business in Indonesia' (make what you will of that) and that heavy rains have been impacting Indo coal operations.

I've opted for some Aussie coal exposure instead, picking up several parcels of both New Hope and Gloucester over the past few days.

HC

Funny thing is that ive read a few articles of late suggesting that Hard Coking Coal/Thermal Coal & Copper as the "supposed safe havens", of which i thought would apply to SRL?

Yossarian - me too :cool:

[Corporate]

Shasta - I'm looking to understand SRL, can you suggest a good place to start? Or even give a run down of what you know about the company?

I had a quick look at the latest PL and BS and COGS is extremely high relative to sales?

Also CL exceed CA

[Corporate]

What amazing SP destruction. SP was over $4 only a month ago!!! What is going on

[shasta]

Shasta - I'm looking to understand SRL, can you suggest a good place to start? Or even give a run down of what you know about the company?

I had a quick look at the latest PL and BS and COGS is extremely high relative to sales?

Also CL exceed CA

It seems the market didint like the postponement of the demerger, where SRL was going to demerge from its SAR holdings*, otherwise its been caught up worse than most in the market meltdown.

* Via an in specie distribution

SRL owns 47.1% of Straits Asia Resources SGX:SAR (on the Singapore exchange)

There holding in SAR exceeds there market cap...:eek:

So you get for everything else for free ...

Here's the latest broker presentation...

http://www.straits.com.au/files/Reports_Brokers/Macquarie_March_2008_!20080307.pdf

Here's the home page (read about there operations)

http://www.straits.com.au/default.asp?V_DOC_ID=776

SRL is a seemingly complex company, when in fact it's not.

I guess when your main asset is a holding in another company on another stock exchange it loses appeal?

[Huang Chung]

As I understand it, the Asians, but not the Aussies would value the Indo coal assets more highly, hence the decision to list in Singapore. Now that SRL want to give Straits Asia shares to their Aussie shareholders, the decision not to also list Straits Asia in Oz looks to have been unfortunate.

My 2c worth is that their is a lack of confidence in SRL because there doesn't appear to be any coherent business plan in place....too many changes of tack when people are looking for steady, steady, steady in these volatile times.

[shasta]

As I understand it, the Asians, but not the Aussies would value the Indo coal assets more highly, hence the decision to list in Singapore. Now that SRL want to give Straits Asia shares to their Aussie shareholders, the decision not to also list Straits Asia in Oz looks to have been unfortunate.

My 2c worth is that their is a lack of confidence in SRL because there doesn't appear to be any coherent business plan in place....too many changes of tack when people are looking for steady, steady, steady in these volatile times.

There has to be something toxic in amongst all this, you have Macquarie valuing SRL at $9 & now it's trading at $1.05 :eek:

I know they are/were trying to roll over more debt, which is a bad thing in this market...

[macduffy]

Macquarie did an update on their research paper on 22 Sept after the announcement of the cancellation of the de-merger.
The SP then was $3-30. They maintained their " Outperform" recommendation, raised their 12 month target to $12-00 but noted that the catalyst for the target ( the merger) had gone for the present. Left me wondering why they were still so optimistic?

I have the paper saved but can't work out how to present it here in a reasonably readable form. If anyone's interested, PM me and I'll email it.

:)

[ritchie]

Can you explain your worries any further Shasta.

If the crash has leveled out....if....then this would seem to be an excellent buy...would it not.

[macduffy]

It should be noted that Macquarie acted as financial adviser to SRL on the de-merger, which may go some way to explaining their bullish stance on the company.

;)

[shasta]

Can you explain your worries any further Shasta.

If the crash has leveled out....if....then this would seem to be an excellent buy...would it not.

I think all logic has been removed from the markets, quality stocks have been hit as much as specs, & even the big 4 banks & BHP havent remained unscathed.

I think we are in for some small rallies, & a long period of going sideways before all this turns around.

Quality stocks will rebound quicker when money comes back into the market.

I see SRL & PNA as two stocks that i like, doing very well & rebounding quicker than the market in general.

Just remember in this market DEBT is another 4 letter swear word :D

[Harry7]

Both coal and iron ore are predicted to have significant falls, this would have to effect SRL's future Sp/recovery

(Haven't checked latest prices for coal)

[shasta]

Both coal and iron ore are predicted to have significant falls, this would have to effect SRL's future Sp/recovery

(Haven't checked latest prices for coal)

When you say Coal, you need to specify.

Thermal Coal & Hard Coking stuff (like PRC) goes off like a frog in a sock :eek:

[shasta]

When you say Coal, you need to specify.

Thermal Coal & Hard Coking stuff (like PRC) goes off like a frog in a sock :eek:

Merrill Lynch have upped there holding...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=424419

[macduffy]

Big climb down by Macquarie Equities who have adopted " the extreme bear case scenario" and slashed their target price from $12 to $3, but retained an "Outperform".
Looks like having a bob each way, to me.

;)

[underDOG]

I think all logic has been removed from the markets, quality stocks have been hit as much as specs, & even the big 4 banks & BHP havent remained unscathed.

I think we are in for some small rallies, & a long period of going sideways before all this turns around.

Quality stocks will rebound quicker when money comes back into the market.

I see SRL & PNA as two stocks that i like, doing very well & rebounding quicker than the market in general.

Just remember in this market DEBT is another 4 letter swear word :D

I see PNA have around $250m debt

but they still look awefully cheap in the 30s

[Huang Chung]

I bought near the open at $1.25, watched them quickly run to $1.40, congratulated myself on my stock picking prowess, then watched them drop right back below my buy price and finish at the lows of the day. :(.

Still, I'm really liking coal at the moment, so might be in for a few more tomorrow if the cards fall the right way.

Now holding GCL, NHC and SRL in the coal space.

[shasta]

I bought near the open at $1.25, watched them quickly run to $1.40, congratulated myself on my stock picking prowess, then watched them drop right back below my buy price and finish at the lows of the day. :(.

Still, I'm really liking coal at the moment, so might be in for a few more tomorrow if the cards fall the right way.

Now holding GCL, NHC and SRL in the coal space.

Good stuff HC

I'm not buying in just yet, but interesting the large swings with SRL.

Seems to run +25% in the morning & soften in late trading?

[Huang Chung]

Good stuff HC

I'm not buying in just yet, but interesting the large swings with SRL.

Seems to run +25% in the morning & soften in late trading?

After doing a post moretum of the trade with my broker, he said that often the overseas buy/sell orders are faxed in overnight to the local brokers, who process them first thing when the Oz market opens. Possibly explains why you often get those bit runs in the first 15min or so.

[Huang Chung]

Been doing a bit more homework on SRL.

Really, you'd only buy it for its coal interests, as the metals projects don't look too flash....some very high costs with one or two of them.

[shasta]

Been doing a bit more homework on SRL.

Really, you'd only buy it for its coal interests, as the metals projects don't look too flash....some very high costs with one or two of them.

HC

Let me reassure you...;)

I update the SRL Market Cap v SAR holding daily

SRL's holding in SAR is currently worth $A512m

SRL's current market cap is $A264m ($A248m discount :eek:)

SRL were going to sell it's 2 coal projects for $A100m to SAR as part of the demerger, ie SAR were to retain ALL coal projects.

If SRL now retains the Coal - thats say $100m in value to start with

They have Copper, Gold, Silver, Antimony & Tungsten in production + listed investments

SRL should be closer to $3 to reflect "fair value" IMO.

Under $2 it's a no brainer IMO!

http://www.straits.com.au/files/Reports_Half_Qtr/2008/SRL_QTY_REPORT_JUNE08_!20080728.pdf

[Huang Chung]

Not arguing about the coal Shasta....complete no brainer.

I think it was Macquarie that had a revised price target of $3, based on a complete meltdown in coal prices. Even so, it would nearly be a three bagger from these prices.

[shasta]

Not arguing about the coal Shasta....complete no brainer.

I think it was Macquarie that had a revised price target of $3, based on a complete meltdown in coal prices. Even so, it would nearly be a three bagger from these prices.

Interesting that the likes of OZL & SRL have been lashed so badly, as "diversified" miners, i thought they would be better positioned than single commodity producers, but appears they have all suffered (even BHP & RIO).

SRL's forecast Copper production rivals that of CUO (30kt+) so they aren't just a one trick pony (Coal).

Silly thing is SRL could sell it's SAR stake & buy GCL with it & still have cash to play with! (Then the market would re-rate SRL!)

[Huang Chung]

Not arguing about the coal Shasta....complete no brainer.

I think it was Macquarie that had a revised price target of $3, based on a complete meltdown in coal prices. Even so, it would nearly be a three bagger from these prices.

Arrrgh, you'll never guess Shasta....I sold out.

Just feel more comfortable with GCL and NHC, both of which I bought more of today.

[shasta]

Arrrgh, you'll never guess Shasta....I sold out.

Just feel more comfortable with GCL and NHC, both of which I bought more of today.

Fair enough HC...:confused:

SRL dropped 4% today, GCL dropped 22%, so i hope you got yourself a bargin...

I'm watching GCL, the ASB Sec research on them is very positive ;)

[macduffy]

Fair enough HC...:confused:

SRL dropped 4% today, GCL dropped 22%, so i hope you got yourself a bargin...

I'm watching GCL, the ASB Sec research on them is very positive ;)

Hi shasta

I've been keeping an eye on GCL too.
Just had a look at a comparative percent chart of BHP/RIO/CGL. It shows that over 2 years they are all about back to where they started pricewise ( CGL a litle better). Problem is that even after yesterday's fall, GCL is on an historic P/E ( 15) of about twice RIO's and almost twice BHP. Now it will be argued that GCL's prospects are very bright, but twice as good as the big two?
Seems a very big bet on one commodity at this delicate stage in the market but I'll keep it on my watchlist.

:cool:

[absolut-advance]

Straits Resources is running at a ADX (Measures Trend Strength) of 55 and came up in one of my scans, Trend Readings this high (in this case Down Trend) are not sustainable. ADX is Flattening meaning Downwards Momentum is easing as the bottom is forming. $1 could provide Support, watch for buy signals, Moving average crossovers work well in high ADX situations. Slow stochastic crossing from below to above 30 can give an early indication of reversal and something to watch out for.

At this Stage there are no Buy signals. But one for the watchlist

AA

[shasta]

Hi shasta

I've been keeping an eye on GCL too.
Just had a look at a comparative percent chart of BHP/RIO/CGL. It shows that over 2 years they are all about back to where they started pricewise ( CGL a litle better). Problem is that even after yesterday's fall, GCL is on an historic P/E ( 15) of about twice RIO's and almost twice BHP. Now it will be argued that GCL's prospects are very bright, but twice as good as the big two?
Seems a very big bet on one commodity at this delicate stage in the market but I'll keep it on my watchlist.

:cool:


Macduffy

I'll compare GCL & SRL (as it is the SRL thread) ;)

ASB Sec currently has GCL on a P/E of just 6 (@ SP $4.40)

FY09 P/E 2.8 + Dividend of 76c (17.3% yield)
FY10 P/E 1.8 + Dividend of 118.1c (26.8% yield)

SRL is currently on a P/E of 2.4 (@ SP $1.09)

FY09 P/E 0.8 + Dividend of 28c (25.7% yield)
FY10 P/E 0.7 + Dividend of 30c (27.5% yield)

Both have explosive growth in EPS & Dividends, & GCL has overtaken CXC in my 5 priority stocks (as per my investment criteria/system, max 5)

[tricha]

Been doing a bit more homework on SRL.

Really, you'd only buy it for its coal interests, as the metals projects don't look too flash....some very high costs with one or two of them.

Exactly right HC, they are having production problems with their metals and with all metal prices tanking, they could be talking losses, unless they have sorted the problems.:confused:

The coal looks a treat. :)

With the price of metals, arr, all metal explorers are sunk and all producers are on the brink. :(

[shasta]

Straits Resources is running at a ADX (Measures Trend Strength) of 55 and came up in one of my scans, Trend Readings this high (in this case Down Trend) are not sustainable. ADX is Flattening meaning Downwards Momentum is easing as the bottom is forming. $1 could provide Support, watch for buy signals, Moving average crossovers work well in high ADX situations. Slow stochastic crossing from below to above 30 can give an early indication of reversal and something to watch out for.

At this Stage there are no Buy signals. But one for the watchlist

AA

True, though it's a compelling buy based on the fundamentals, ie to get in before you lead the herd :D

[macduffy]

Macduffy

I'll compare GCL & SRL (as it is the SRL thread) ;)

ASB Sec currently has GCL on a P/E of just 6 (@ SP $4.40)

FY09 P/E 2.8 + Dividend of 76c (17.3% yield)
FY10 P/E 1.8 + Dividend of 118.1c (26.8% yield)

SRL is currently on a P/E of 2.4 (@ SP $1.09)

FY09 P/E 0.8 + Dividend of 28c (25.7% yield)
FY10 P/E 0.7 + Dividend of 30c (27.5% yield)

Both have explosive growth in EPS & Dividends, & GCL has overtaken CXC in my 5 priority stocks (as per my investment criteria/system, max 5)

Hi again, shasta.

This should really be on a GCL thread but I havn't found one and not game to start one!
Just a point on ASB Sec's P/E of 6. I can't see where this comes from. It's not the prospective 09 number which they estimate at 2.8 and it can't be the historical 08 number.
( Company September presentation shows eps of 28.8c which equates to a P/E of 15.27. There's been some shares bought back since which would have a small beneficial effect but not to that extent.)

OK, the penny's finally dropping as I type this. It must be their estimate based on their estimated 2009 earnings per share.

Feel free to ignore this but I'll post it all the same!

Cheers

:)

[shasta]

Hi again, shasta.

This should really be on a GCL thread but I havn't found one and not game to start one!
Just a point on ASB Sec's P/E of 6. I can't see where this comes from. It's not the prospective 09 number which they estimate at 2.8 and it can't be the historical 08 number.
( Company September presentation shows eps of 28.8c which equates to a P/E of 15.27. There's been some shares bought back since which would have a small beneficial effect but not to that extent.)

OK, the penny's finally dropping as I type this. It must be their estimate based on their estimated 2009 earnings per share.

Feel free to ignore this but I'll post it all the same!

Cheers

:)

To retain a hefty P/E 15 in this market could only be a massive vote of confidence in the companys' management & future growth prospects...

To be held in this high regard (over say BHP & RIO) would be outstanding!

Whereas SRL has been lashed more than other producers, but to be valued on a P/E <1 going forward?

This is what i specialise in, finding the companies the market has fallen out of love with, & waiting for the tide to turn...

With the coal plays i've looked at (excluding SRL as they are diversified)

In order of Market Cap

NHC, MCC, SAR* CEY, WHC & GCL...

NB, GCL is trading at a 68% discount to it's 12 month highs

SRL's coal is still decent enough in size to be compared IMO

[absolut-advance]

To be honest Shasta investing based on Fundamentals only is basically a total waste of time and money, Its a formula guaranteed to cost you money. Almost every thing is looking good value but It hasn't stopped them falling further and further., why because Sentiment drives the market not fundamentals.

AA

True, though it's a compelling buy based on the fundamentals, ie to get in before you lead the herd :D

[shasta]

To be honest Shasta investing based on Fundamentals only is basically a total waste of time and money, Its a formula guaranteed to cost you money. Almost every thing is looking good value but It hasn't stopped them falling further and further., why because Sentiment drives the market not fundamentals.

AA

I wouldn't say it's a total waste of time, thats starting to sound like a TA rant like Phaedrus. (I find the companies BEFORE TA signals pick them up!)

FA finds the companies & TA tells you when to buy & sell, that better? :D

I'm actually not buying anything, nor am i holding anything ...YET

Just a few URAO's at present

One thing TA won't tell you is quality stocks like SRL, won't trade on a forward P/E <1 when market condition improve!

[absolut-advance]

I wouldn't say it's a total waste of time, thats starting to sound like a TA rant like Phaedrus. (I find the companies BEFORE TA signals pick them up!)

FA finds the companies & TA tells you when to buy & sell, that better? :D

I'm actually not buying anything, nor am i holding anything ...YET

Just a few URAO's at present

One thing TA won't tell you is quality stocks like SRL, won't trade on a forward P/E <1 when market condition improve!

I find the companies BEFORE TA signals pick them up!

You sure do, but you can also end up paying a higher price.

Huang Chung's purchase on this very thread is one example of value buying which went custard

FA finds the companies & TA tells you when to buy & sell, that better?

IMO

One thing TA won't tell you is quality stocks like SRL, won't trade on a forward P/E <1 when market condition improve!

SRL was Found On my scan because it was nearing its bottom and In a heavily over sold situation, TA can find Quality oversold stocks.

I have see countless examples of Poor quality stocks out performing quality stocks... time and time again, to the point where I believe value has very limited influence on prices over short to medium term periods, and Value investor should be prepared to hold for long periods of time and be able to weather very large losses to realize their perceived value. Not too many here would have the courage to be a buy and hold investor through this bear market.

AA

[absolut-advance]

Hey Shasta,

$1 could provide some support, and a entry could be made now dues to the fundamentals as you say but also due to the fact that down trend has lost a lot of momentum.

Its a very early approach entering before any buy signals have fired, but there is good probability of a successful trade when downside can be limited with a stop loss just below a psychological level like $1.00,

another positive sign is volume has increased as the bottom has neared, hints at the first sign of accumulation.

AA

[shasta]

Hey Shasta,

$1 could provide some support, and a entry could be made now dues to the fundamentals as you say but also due to the fact that down trend has lost a lot of momentum.

Its a very early approach entering before any buy signals have fired, but there is good probability of a successful trade when downside can be limited with a stop loss just below a psychological level like $1.00,

another positive sign is volume has increased as the bottom has neared, hints at the first sign of accumulation.

AA


I must say though, whilst HC got spooked out, had he got out close to the highs over those 2 days he could have bought around the low's in between $1.05 - $1.09 & sold between $1.35 - $1.40.

What he did is his business, but it could well have been a very profitable trade!

[absolut-advance]

Thats all very good in hindsight, but what is a trading plan that would have got you those exact results, other than hindsight.

AA


I must say though, whilst HC got spooked out, had he got out close to the highs over those 2 days he could have bought around the low's in between $1.05 - $1.09 & sold between $1.35 - $1.40.

What he did is his business, but it could well have been a very profitable trade!

[shasta]

Thats all very good in hindsight, but what is a trading plan that would have got you those exact results, other than hindsight.

AA

Well i watched the whole thing unfold, the run up in the morning, the drop off around lunch time, some renewed interest just after lunch, & then the drop off/profit taking in the afternoon, as traders close there positions before close.

It's a very easy pattern to spot, & happens all the time

[underDOG]

I couldnt think of a better liquid trade right now than OZL at $1 in exactly the way AA described

tight stop if $1 is broken, say 5%, 95c


Im sure this will be a winning trade next week.

[shasta]

I couldnt think of a better liquid trade right now than OZL at $1 in exactly the way AA described

tight stop if $1 is broken, say 5%, 95c


Im sure this will be a winning trade next week.

Underdog

Only problem with OZL is that it's 2 main exposures are Zinc & Copper & neither is behaving, that said OZL on a 10% yield is plain ridiculous!

[underDOG]

Underdog

Only problem with OZL is that it's 2 main exposures are Zinc & Copper & neither is behaving, that said OZL on a 10% yield is plain ridiculous!

just thinking of a trade;)


my last $7k will be traded, and having said that I just put my order in for 7000 ozl @ 1.01:D

[shasta]

just thinking of a trade;)


my last $7k will be traded, and having said that I just put my order in for 7000 ozl @ 1.01:D

Trading range for OZL of $1.00 - $1.13 already today, very tradeable

SRL trading range $1.155 - $1.30, so theres a nice 10 - 15% in there

[soulman]

Like someone said the other day, everybody expects a bottom, hence it won't come yet. Everybody thought along with the chart and TA said so that the ASX would bottomed at 4250 but that didn't happen.

So whenever a crowd agree to something, the market will teach them a lesson. I got taught alright.

This is a traders market but like AA said I would suggest small trades. Hard to pick the right stock though. SRL is one I am looking at but unfortunately for me, I missed out yesterday for $1. There is luck involve in the sharemarket. You might put a bid in for an amount, never looked at the screen again because you are at work and saw the low of $1 and you just missed out with your bid. That's the luck factor in trading.

[shasta]

Like someone said the other day, everybody expects a bottom, hence it won't come yet. Everybody thought along with the chart and TA said so that the ASX would bottomed at 4250 but that didn't happen.

So whenever a crowd agree to something, the market will teach them a lesson. I got taught alright.

This is a traders market but like AA said I would suggest small trades. Hard to pick the right stock though. SRL is one I am looking at but unfortunately for me, I missed out yesterday for $1. There is luck involve in the sharemarket. You might put a bid in for an amount, never looked at the screen again because you are at work and saw the low of $1 and you just missed out with your bid. That's the luck factor in trading.

Soulman

SRL is about a "Buffett" type stock as you get, i mean how much more of a margin of safety will the market price in before common sense prevails?

It's trading for around HALF the value of it's holding in Straits Asia Resources (SAR:SGX).

Ignoring everything else, you could takeover SRL, sell it's stake in SAR & double your money (ok, thats a bit simple, but you get the picture)

[soulman]

Shasta, SRL going for a trot today but I rather buy this stock at my price that the current price, up 20% today.

HC obviously timed this purchase wrong but he could have held it for longer than his time frame. Maybe a week to digest. The benefit of hindsight is great but SRL has fallen off a cliff. Less than 3 weeks ago SRL was more than $3. Would it get there? Probably not in the near term but at $1, it might just recover to $1.60 for a nice trade.

[ritchie]

Shasta.

Just a thankyou as got into this due to your comments....in at 117...looking forward to Monday

Cheeers

[shasta]

Shasta.

Just a thankyou as got into this due to your comments....in at 117...looking forward to Monday

Cheeers


Good stuff

With SAR getting its refinancing sorted, SRL should be on a nice run now

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=425100

[absolut-advance]

Just a quick note and some food for thought....

SRL's Average True Range is 30c based on a period of 14 days.

What that really means is 30c daily fluctuations are normal for this stock, and only movements exceeding 30c are significant.

AA

[shasta]

Just a quick note and some food for thought....

SRL's Average True Range is 30c based on a period of 14 days.

What that really means is 30c daily fluctuations are normal for this stock, and only movements exceeding 30c are significant.

AA

Thanks AA, my previous comments were based on loose observations rather than researched facts...

SRL closed at $1.45, up 36c (33%) this is significant because SAR has got $300m in refinanced debt sorted ($230m refinanced + $70m for expansion)

The flow on effect of this WILL reach SRL.

Ritchie - can have a few quiets tonight & feel smug about next week ;)

[absolut-advance]

What this really means is if you buy in at $1 SRL could range by 30% during the day, on normal daily noise alone.

rather interesting aye.

AA

Just a quick note and some food for thought....

SRL's Average True Range is 30c based on a period of 14 days.

What that really means is 30c daily fluctuations are normal for this stock, and only movements exceeding 30c are significant.

AA

[shasta]

What this really means is if you buy in at $1 SRL could range by 30% during the day, on normal daily noise alone.

rather interesting aye.

AA

Certainly is a volatile stock, that has been in freefall mode of late...

[underDOG]

Certainly is a volatile stock, that has been in freefall mode of late...


best trading stock today hands down

good volume and range

[Huang Chung]

Just to clear the air, I was spooked out because I made the basic mistake of buying before doing my homework. I'm not saying that I would have uncovered a real woolfer, far from it, but I would have worked out that SRL was not the right stock for me.....it's the sleep at night factor at work.

Things I didn't like were some rather average metals projects, lack of direction re Straits Asia holding, uncertainty around Govt approvals to mine in the protected Cagar Alam mangrove swamp, and 25% discount in coal price SAR recieves compared to the index Newcastle reference price.

Trading is NOT my forte (wow, what a surprise), and it's hard trying to get the execution right when at work.

[shasta]

Just to clear the air, I was spooked out because I made the basic mistake of buying before doing my homework. I'm not saying that I would have uncovered a real woolfer, far from it, but I would have worked out that SRL was not the right stock for me.....it's the sleep at night factor at work.

Things I didn't like were some rather average metals projects, lack of direction re Straits Asia holding, uncertainty around Govt approvals to mine in the protected Cagar Alam mangrove swamp, and 25% discount in coal price SAR recieves compared to the index Newcastle reference price.

Trading is NOT my forte (wow, what a surprise), and it's hard trying to get the execution right when at work.

I'm upset you didnt value my input :D

I wouldnt put ya crook ;)

[Huang Chung]

I'm upset you didnt value my input :D

I wouldnt put ya crook ;)

Always value your input Shasta...

By the way....my broker reckons its the best buy on the market as well...he was away yesterday when I sold, but had a go at me today for selling....(can't remember for sure, but I think the word 'lunatic' might have been mentioned at some stage during the conversation :confused:)

[shasta]

Always value your input Shasta...

By the way....my broker reckons its the best buy on the market as well...he was away yesterday when I sold, but had a go at me today for selling....(can't remember for sure, but I think the word 'lunatic' might have been mentioned at some stage during the conversation :confused:)

Im always interested to see your disclosure, & i see your raining in the stocks & heading for quality...

Brokers are terrible, & not worth listening to, in general...:rolleyes:

I specialise in finding companies that are undervalued & that the market has mispriced/forgotten or plain doesn't love...

SRL, PNA ,TSE & GCL all fit that bill IMO.

[Huang Chung]

I've been with my broker for well over a decade and we understand each other quite well....he's very hands on, and doesn't just follow the house picks.

I've gone for Leighton's but it could very easily have been TSE (done very well with TSE in the past).

[shasta]

I've been with my broker for well over a decade and we understand each other quite well....he's very hands on, and doesn't just follow the house picks.

I've gone for Leighton's but it could very easily have been TSE (done very well with TSE in the past).

Good to hear, i've never paid anyone to look after my affairs, i prefer the hands on approach...

I miss the run of one company, i have half a dozen others lined up :D

Gotta love the panic & fear (all short term knee jerk responses)

[absolut-advance]

Sorry Shasta had to run out the door when I was posting my last post, DVD at a mates place and I was running late.

SRL sure is a great trading stock with a daily range of 30c, amazing to think amost a third of SRL's Market Cap is fluctuating on and off on daily range alone.

Crazy stuff.

AA

[shasta]

Sorry Shasta had to run out the door when I was posting my last post, DVD at a mates place and I was running late.

SRL sure is a great trading stock with a daily range of 30c, amazing to think amost a third of SRL's Market Cap is fluctuating on and off on daily range alone.

Crazy stuff.

AA

Won't be long until 30c swings are just 10% of SRL's daily SP ;)

[absolut-advance]

Green = SRL Closing Price

Blue = Potential Support $1.00

Red = Potential Resistance(Useful for Price Targets)

Potential Resistance Levels

R1$2.50
Fib 38.2% $2.77
R2/Fib 50% $3.30
Fib 61.8% $3.85
R3 $4.00

Bottom Indicator Slow Stochastic - Buy Signal 16th October

Yellow Trend Line - Break - 17th October

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/srl_ax14aug08_to_21oct08.png

Still Very Early Days for SRL, Stochastic is a very early indicator but can create many false buy signals and usually requires additional confirmation.

1 month
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/srl_ax11sep08_to_20oct08.png

Directional Movement Indicator Shows downtrend is still in place, Red line on top of blue

*White ADX line shows Down trend Strength is very high at 54. ADX readings above 40 are considered unsustainable trend strength values and indicate a nearing trend reversal or consolidation.

ADX is Flattening out and turning down, indicating the Downtrend has run out of momentum and the bottom is now forming.

Buy signals are now required to confirm trend reversal

5 day Moving average has not yet crossed the 10 day moving average, light blue needs to cross pink line to signal a buy.

AA (not advice)

[shasta]

Thanks AA

Appreciate the charts with comments...

As you said it's early days for SRL

Interesting that SAR:SGX was up 7.5c to $1.00 on the refinancing news

[absolut-advance]

Thanks AA

Appreciate the charts with comments...

As you said it's early days for SRL

Interesting that SAR:SGX was up 7.5c to $1.00 on the refinancing news

I think SRL will gun it next week, fairly clear space until $2.50, wish I brought on Thursday at $1, would make a very probable trade at that value.

It's on my watch list.

Other Companies with Extreme ADX readings parallel to SRL are:

SAE
PLA
MMG
KBC
BLY
ASL
AXO

Maybe you will find some bargains there too?


AA

[absolut-advance]

In This Chart (below) we have the Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse) Indicator (light Blue) dropping from above the price to below the Price indicating a buy signal. Trailing Stops on both the Long and Short side can be place each day at the Parabolic SAR dot as a simple trailing stop method.

Trend Line (Yellow) Break on the last Day.

The Force Index indicator is a Indicator which combines Price and Volume to calculate the Force of Bulls and Bears

The Force index Crosses above Zero indicating the Bulls have taken control.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) a Momentum and Oscillator combined, it measures the distance between two moving averages. The MACD has various uses, in this case the MACD Histogram is indicating Positive Momentum as it crosses above the zero line.

2 month
http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/srl_ax14aug08_to_22oct08.png

Further Confirmation of reversal is still required, IMO


AA

[absolut-advance]

I'm Aboard as of Today.

AA

[shasta]

I'm Aboard as of Today.

AA

Nice one SAR was up 12% to $1.12 yesterday, should have a good day!

SRL's holding in SAR = 557,346,360 x $S1.12 (/.962) = $A648,885,575

Market Cap of SRL = 232,895,560 x $1.50 = $A349,343,340

Discrepancy in valuation = $A299,542,235 :eek:

[absolut-advance]

Its looking real good Shasta!

AA

Nice one SAR was up 12% to $1.12 yesterday, should have a good day!

SRL's holding in SAR = 557,346,360 x $S1.12 (/.962) = $A648,885,575

Market Cap of SRL = 232,895,560 x $1.50 = $A349,343,340

Discrepancy in valuation = $A299,542,235 :eek:

[shasta]

Its looking real good Shasta!

AA

Daily update on the SRL Market Cap v SAR holding valuations

SRL's holding in SAR - 557,346,360 x $S1.25/.9857 = $A706,790,048

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.50 = $A349,343,430

Discrepancy in valuation = $A357,446,708

SRL is trading at a 51% discount to it's SAR:SGX holding alone!

Or to put it in simple terms, SAR is worth $3.03 per share to SRL, yet you can buy them for $1.50!!! :eek:

Truly bizarre :confused:

[AMR]

Can someone post a chart of SAR on the SGX?

Yes Shasta it is weird but maybe SAR is plummeting like a rock? I've seena few cases like AGF where the stock is well below the NTA but keeps falling because the NTA keeps falling.

If it isn't this sounds like the buy of the century.

[shasta]

Can someone post a chart of SAR on the SGX?

Yes Shasta it is weird but maybe SAR is plummeting like a rock? I've seena few cases like AGF where the stock is well below the NTA but keeps falling because the NTA keeps falling.

If it isn't this sounds like the buy of the century.

SAR is meant to produce 9mt of Coal FY09. (Is on target so far)

SAR was $S1.00 & is up 25% in 2 days, since the funding issue re the Jembayan Coal Mine was sorted. (Had $230m debt to refinance & got $300m, the extra to fund expansion!)

I tried to get the chart off the SGX & gave up sorry :o

[shasta]

SAR is meant to produce 9mt of Coal FY09. (Is on target so far)

SAR was $S1.00 & is up 25% in 2 days, since the funding issue re the Jembayan Coal Mine was sorted. (Had $230m debt to refinance & got $300m, the extra to fund expansion!)

I tried to get the chart off the SGX & gave up sorry :o

Here's a run down on Strait Asia Resources (SAR:SGX) Singapore Exchange

http://www.straitsasia.com/images/pdf/Presentations/2008/080922%20website.pdf

[absolut-advance]

Can someone post a chart of SAR on the SGX?

Yes Shasta it is weird but maybe SAR is plummeting like a rock? I've seena few cases like AGF where the stock is well below the NTA but keeps falling because the NTA keeps falling.

If it isn't this sounds like the buy of the century.

http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/SGX/AJ1.htm (http://www.findata.co.nz/Markets/StockQuote/SGX/AJ1.htm)

http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=STRL.SI

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/ScreenHunter_01Oct212142.gif

AA

[ritchie]

I just dont get how it works.

I see there is a buyer at $2 and a seller at $1.

Why would someone sell at that price when there are obviousley people willing to pay more.

And then when the market does open theres no mention of that sale or buy.

Could someone explain and give me an example...if you can.

Ive asked beore and the respons is they average out. So what...they add all buys up and divide by the number of buyers.

cheers.

[ritchie]

plus the buys and the sells are the same quantities

buy at 1.90 72,662 seller at 1.00 for 72,662
2.00 44.996 1.10 44.996
2.05 7.497 97.5 7.497

[absolut-advance]

They wont, market is in pre open, traders just playing games, those orders will be pulled before market open.
Its a technique used by some traders to prevent market depth being read before market opens.


P.s Dont read too much into the depth, most orders come from off screen, meaning people use at market orders rather then the limit orders you can see.

Hope this helps


AA


plus the buys and the sells are the same quantities

buy at 1.90 72,662 seller at 1.00 for 72,662
2.00 44.996 1.10 44.996
2.05 7.497 97.5 7.497

[ritchie]

peolple and there mind games.

Thanks

[soulman]

plus the buys and the sells are the same quantities

buy at 1.90 72,662 seller at 1.00 for 72,662
2.00 44.996 1.10 44.996
2.05 7.497 97.5 7.497

Ritch, those order will go through as they are. Both the buy and sell side will cancelled each other out until they find the floor price which cut them both off in term of supply and demand. That's how we get the opening price. The closing price at the end of the trading session also have the same method. Hence, you can see why some stock open high or low and stocks closing high or low.

For example, some stock can put on $1 or $2 and fall that amount as well in the opening minute or closing minute due to supply and demand. For example, LEI on the 14th Oct went up $3.30 odd at the open.

Like AA said traders plus fund manager setting the price and us minnows will have to go with it.

[shasta]

Ritch, those order will go through as they are. Both the buy and sell side will cancelled each other out until they find the floor price which cut them both off in term of supply and demand. That's how we get the opening price. The closing price at the end of the trading session also have the same method. Hence, you can see why some stock open high or low and stocks closing high or low.

For example, some stock can put on $1 or $2 and fall that amount as well in the opening minute or closing minute due to supply and demand. For example, LEI on the 14th Oct went up $3.30 odd at the open.

Like AA said traders plus fund manager setting the price and us minnows will have to go with it.

SRL - Sept Quarterly :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=425742

Good to see cash costs reducing, not that this insane market attributes any value to SRL's own projects!

SRL Quarterly Press Release

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=425750

[shasta]

SRL - Sept Quarterly :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=425742

Good to see cash costs reducing, not that this insane market attributes any value to SRL's own projects!

SRL Quarterly Press Release

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=425750

Daily update on the SRL Market Cap v SAR Holding ;)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.15(/1.00) = $A640,948,314

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $1.41 = $A328,382,740

Discrepancy in Valuation = $A312,565,574

Discount to SAR Valuation = 49%

SAR Holding value per SRL share = $A2.75

[absolut-advance]

Thanks for the update shasta, good to see SRL holding up so well on a down day, getting set for the next leg up.

That Discrepancy in Valuation is crazy, thats the market for you, totally irrational.

AA


Daily update on the SRL Market Cap v SAR Holding ;)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.15(/1.00) = $A640,948,314

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $1.41 = $A328,382,740

Discrepancy in Valuation = $A312,565,574

Discount to SAR Valuation = 49%

SAR Holding value per SRL share = $A2.75

[shasta]

Thanks for the update shasta, good to see SRL holding up so well on a down day, getting set for the next leg up.

That Discrepancy in Valuation is crazy, thats the market for you, totally irrational.

AA

SRL's interest in a Madagascan Coal JV & a Brunei Coal JV that SRL are earning into, were going to be sold to SAR for $A100m (accordingly to the demerger agreement, i'd value them conservatively at say $A50m).

So add that into the mix, & that still ignores it's listed investment, it's gold & copper producing assets.

I'd conservatively attribute 50cps to all SRL's not SAR related projects.

So thats still $3.25 a share, SRL @ $1.41 is 57% below my very conservative valuation!

[shasta]

SRL's interest in a Madagascan Coal JV & a Brunei Coal JV that SRL are earning into, were going to be sold to SAR for $A100m (accordingly to the demerger agreement, i'd value them conservatively at say $A50m).

So add that into the mix, & that still ignores it's listed investment, it's gold & copper producing assets.

I'd conservatively attribute 50cps to all SRL's not SAR related projects.

So thats still $3.25 a share, SRL @ $1.41 is 57% below my very conservative valuation!

Today's update on the SRL Market Cap v SAR Holding comparison ;)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.02/.9962 = $A570,661,802

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.20 = $A279,474,672

Discrepancy in SAR Valuation = $A291,187,130

Discount to SAR Valuation = 51%

SAR Holding per SRL Value = $A2.45

I'm still shaking my head over this one...:rolleyes:

[soulman]

That's it. I have enough buying stocks. Another significant drop today just justified all these nervous people out there. Buying just create losses as sitting on the sideline will not do that.

As with SRL, I will sit on the sideline even at $1 today.

[drillfix]

That's it. I have enough buying stocks. Another significant drop today just justified all these nervous people out there. Buying just create losses as sitting on the sideline will not do that.

As with SRL, I will sit on the sideline even at $1 today.


I hear ya Soulman

For a while, I was on the sideline and actually took money off to put back on my Credit Card, but then STUPID FKn ME, goes and invests in PNA

BAD MOVE BUYING ANYTHING, END OF STORY

ps: you wouldnt think I was disappointed in myself would you~!

[absolut-advance]

Yep its not for the faint hearted, I got stopped out today, and brought back in at $1

Frustrating stuff

AA

That's it. I have enough buying stocks. Another significant drop today just justified all these nervous people out there. Buying just create losses as sitting on the sideline will not do that.

As with SRL, I will sit on the sideline even at $1 today.

[soulman]

Good luck AA but I tell ya, if it close below $1, it's the low 80's you are looking at.

The market has to priced in a deep long recession before it can say enough is enough. When will that happen is the million dollar question.

We all might as well buy plenty of lotto tickets instead of this.

Ok, ok, they say don't let emotion interfere but we can't help it.

[shasta]

Good luck AA but I tell ya, if it close below $1, it's the low 80's you are looking at.

The market has to priced in a deep long recession before it can say enough is enough. When will that happen is the million dollar question.

We all might as well buy plenty of lotto tickets instead of this.

Ok, ok, they say don't let emotion interfere but we can't help it.

Today's update SRL Market Cap v SAR Holding :rolleyes:

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.955/1.04 = $A511,794,013

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.00 = $A232,895,560

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A278,878,453

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.20

[Corporate]

Today's update SRL Market Cap v SAR Holding :rolleyes:

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.955/1.04 = $A511,794,013

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.00 = $A232,895,560

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A278,878,453

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.20


Shasta - have you been trading this stock? if you could get it right you could make 50% in a day or so. $1 - $1.50 :eek:

[absolut-advance]

Good luck AA but I tell ya, if it close below $1, it's the low 80's you are looking at.

The market has to priced in a deep long recession before it can say enough is enough. When will that happen is the million dollar question.

We all might as well buy plenty of lotto tickets instead of this.

Ok, ok, they say don't let emotion interfere but we can't help it.

They say a picture tells a thousand words.

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/srl.gif


.....but I beta explain

Turning Points

On Chart
TP - Green = Possible Buy signal
TP - Red = Possible Sell signal


(Donchian Channels (Blue) can be used to detect breakouts above and below the zone prices have been moving in)


Cheers, ill need all the luck I can get.

AA

[winner69]

Amazing chart AA ... it does tell a real story eh

Always been a believer in trends and the last year or so have reinforced that belief ... like a lot of major events in the investment have been signaled early on ..... Northern Rock shareprice started falling months before it was obvious they were stuffed .... look at the US banks and all share prices started falling before all that came unstuck .... Centro is another where change in trend signalled their demise and the satrt of troubles in the listed property sector.

Even on a smaller scale the PEM chart seems to have signalled their ultimate demise .... what eventuates with SRL will one day be known but something is happpening eh

Good work AA

[absolut-advance]

Thanks Winner,

Theirs definitely a method amongst the madness.
Im starting to becoming a real fan of entering on Reversal bars after heavy sell downs.
Indicators and other traditional trend following methods have far too much lag in this kind of market, nothings trending at the moment, so even trend line breaks are unreliable as hell.

Suitable for short term trading, Key reversal bars are extremely reliable and profitable when used together with extremely high ADX readings like we are getting at the moment (ADX above 50 "and turning down").

For anyone who doesn't know what Reversal bars are, its worth learning, they are the fastest indication you can get that a new swings on its way.

http://www.incrediblecharts.com/sitemap.php?mgroup=73

AA

Amazing chart AA ... it does tell a real story eh

Always been a believer in trends and the last year or so have reinforced that belief ... like a lot of major events in the investment have been signaled early on ..... Northern Rock shareprice started falling months before it was obvious they were stuffed .... look at the US banks and all share prices started falling before all that came unstuck .... Centro is another where change in trend signalled their demise and the satrt of troubles in the listed property sector.

Even on a smaller scale the PEM chart seems to have signalled their ultimate demise .... what eventuates with SRL will one day be known but something is happpening eh

Good work AA

[AMR]

Nice AA what programme is that? What parameters are you using for the Donchian channels? It seems almost like you've found the holy grail!

[absolut-advance]

Hi AMR, the jury's still out on that one, Im in testing phase on various platforms, that one is TP pre alerts on MDSnews the big brother to the free Egoli,(which appears more stable) Unfortunately the Platform is buggy as hell on my PC and crashes and freezes on a very regular basis, Im also testing heaps of others like wintic.com's ABLESYS,Amibroker,Protrader/TradeDecision/paratech pulse, NetQuote Prophet ... various pattern/reversal scanners.Haven't found anything I'm happy with as yet. All rather time consuming and the Best ones cost mega Bucks with high on going costs.

I Better let this get back to SRL

AA



Nice AA what programme is that? What parameters are you using for the Donchian channels? It seems almost like you've found the holy grail!

[shasta]

Shasta - have you been trading this stock? if you could get it right you could make 50% in a day or so. $1 - $1.50 :eek:

Shephejame

The bears may be utterly stupid, but they're running the show & i'm not brave enough to fight them.

I'm not & haven't been buying anything in this market, though SRL & PNA just need a reversal in the charts for me to enter.

I'm not trading stocks either

[Zephyrus]

Regarding the cost of copper production at Tritton, you may like to read the MacQuarie broker report (from around 7 March 2008) on the SRL website. There's something in there about the treatment charges being 30% of spot copper price (at the then current spot price), due to the offtake agreement with Sempra Metals. That figure applies to the first 22.5 to 25ktpa of production & carries through till 2012. Over & above that amount the cost is US$45 per ton of concentrate and US$0.045 per pound of copper.

I don't know if SRL will be making any money from Tritton. Add the other loss making operations & you can start to see why SRL may be trading at a value less than their holding in SAR. This will probably not change until they can extract value from their holding in SAR. Whatever cashflow or cash holdings SRL state in quarterly reports etc is mostly not accessable. Most of the cash/cashflow is in SAR.

SRL need to be able to survive on their own cashflows. This may be in doubt.

Please DYOR.

Cheers,
Z.

[shasta]

Regarding the cost of copper production at Tritton, you may like to read the MacQuarie broker report (from around 7 March 2008) on the SRL website. There's something in there about the treatment charges being 30% of spot copper price (at the then current spot price), due to the offtake agreement with Sempra Metals. That figure applies to the first 22.5 to 25ktpa of production & carries through till 2012. Over & above that amount the cost is US$45 per ton of concentrate and US$0.045 per pound of copper.

I don't know if SRL will be making any money from Tritton. Add the other loss making operations & you can start to see why SRL may be trading at a value less than their holding in SAR. This will probably not change until they can extract value from their holding in SAR. Whatever cashflow or cash holdings SRL state in quarterly reports etc is mostly not accessable. Most of the cash/cashflow is in SAR.

SRL need to be able to survive on their own cashflows. This may be in doubt.

Please DYOR.

Cheers,
Z.

SRL - Substantial Holder Notices

Eastern Advisors see some value ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=426423

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=426424

[shasta]

SRL - Substantial Holder Notices

Eastern Advisors see some value ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=426423

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=426424

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.98/1.082 = $A504,805,391

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.94 = $A218,921,826

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A285,883,564

Discount to SAR Valuation = 57%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.17

[ritchie]

How do you go about selling when you havnt recieved the srn number yet from Australia.


Cheers.

[shasta]

How do you go about selling when you havnt recieved the srn number yet from Australia.


Cheers.

Ring your broker & get them to follow it up, it shouldn't take long to get that kind of info

[absolut-advance]

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/srl_ax_price_daily27oct98_to_06mar0.png

AA

[shasta]

http://i41.photobucket.com/albums/e264/arranging/srl_ax_price_daily27oct98_to_06mar0.png

AA

Looks more like the course at the "X Games"

No fundamental reasons for the fall though!

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.925/1.073 = $A480,471,000

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.985 = $A229,402,127

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A251,068,873

Discount to SAR Valuation = 52%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.06

[soulman]

Yep its not for the faint hearted, I got stopped out today, and brought back in at $1

Frustrating stuff

AA

You got out today AA at positive? Gut feeling tells me SRL will run into the $1.20's tomorrow but my gut feeling is wrong most of the time. Good luck.

[shasta]

You got out today AA at positive? Gut feeling tells me SRL will run into the $1.20's tomorrow but my gut feeling is wrong most of the time. Good luck.

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.87/1.041 = $A465,793,788

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.10 = $A256,185,116

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A209,608,672

Discount to SAR Valuation = 45%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.00

[absolut-advance]

Still in Soulman, I'm not giving this one away cheap.
Bullish W pattern starting to form (Double Bottom). Next few days movement will depend more on the general market however.
ADX decreasing now, downtrends out of momentum. I'm looking to make a least a 100% gain from here.

AA

You got out today AA at positive? Gut feeling tells me SRL will run into the $1.20's tomorrow but my gut feeling is wrong most of the time. Good luck.

[absolut-advance]

Well Soulman, I sold on close at $1.20,appeared to be a bit of resistance at that level and I think the general market will be down tomorrow, I hope to buy back in tomorrow at a discount.

AA

[shasta]

Well Soulman, I sold on close at $1.20,appeared to be a bit of resistance at that level and I think the general market will be down tomorrow, I hope to buy back in tomorrow at a discount.

AA

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.94/0.9997 = $A524,062,797

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.18 = $A274,816,761

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A249,246,036

Discount to SAR Valuation = 48%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.25

[absolut-advance]

Shasta could you start a thread on Ausenco - AAX the chart looks yummy and I notice its on your watch list too.
massive volume went through today.

AA

[shasta]

Shasta could you start a thread on Ausenco - AAX the chart looks yummy and I notice its on your watch list too.
massive volume went through today.

AA

Why not, i'll crunch the numbers for all to see ;)

[shasta]

Why not, i'll crunch the numbers for all to see ;)

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.95/1.015 = $A521,654,229

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.27 = $A298,106,317

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A223,547,912

Discount to SAR Valuation = 43%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.24

[ritchie]

Hi Shasta.

Another share you got me into...thats 2 now...

How do you see this panning out with the world the way it is......

With this share...its incrdeible the amount of turnover...you just have to blink..mind you some very small parcels are changing hands.

[shasta]

Hi Shasta.

Another share you got me into...thats 2 now...

How do you see this panning out with the world the way it is......

With this share...its incrdeible the amount of turnover...you just have to blink..mind you some very small parcels are changing hands.

So long as the world needs Coal, then SRL should do alright, via Straits Asia Resources of course.

SRL's Madagascar Coal Mine JV looks very promising, & it has a range of metals including, Gold, Copper, Silver, Tungsten, Antimony...

Fundamentally SRL should AT LEAST be worth it's shareholding in SAR:SGX.

So that would have SRL over $2, & with a Market Cap of ~$A0.5b

Even at $2 i would call SRL a "cheap stock"...;)

Fair value at say $3, & i'd calculate an intrinsic value closer to $5

Of course the market doesn't give a stuff about fundamentals or what i think!

[underDOG]

So long as the world needs Coal, then SRL should do alright, via Straits Asia Resources of course.

SRL's Madagascar Coal Mine JV looks very promising, & it has a range of metals including, Gold, Copper, Silver, Tungsten, Antimony...

Fundamentally SRL should AT LEAST be worth it's shareholding in SAR:SGX.

So that would have SRL over $2, & with a Market Cap of ~$A0.5b

Even at $2 i would call SRL a "cheap stock"...;)

Fair value at say $3, & i'd calculate an intrinsic value closer to $5

Of course the market doesn't give a stuff about fundamentals or what i think!

shasta, one question

why are you not invested at all (apart from URAO, but wont call that invested)

with all your bargains on watch


surely you must see SRL as a buy at $1 each time it hits lows.

[shasta]

shasta, one question

why are you not invested at all (apart from URAO, but wont call that invested)

with all your bargains on watch


surely you must see SRL as a buy at $1 each time it hits lows.

Because i may get them cheaper...:rolleyes:

The DOW only needs another 5% drop in a day to create mass uncertainty.

Plus i need some capital deployed elsewhere at present...

[shasta]

Because i may get them cheaper...:rolleyes:

The DOW only needs another 5% drop in a day to create mass uncertainty.

Plus i need some capital deployed elsewhere at present...

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.08/0.9941 = $A605,506,557

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.40 = $A326,053,784

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A279,452,773

Discount to SAR Valuation = 46%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.60

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.08/0.9941 = $A605,506,557

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.40 = $A326,053,784

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A279,452,773

Discount to SAR Valuation = 46%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.60

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.15/1.012 = $A633,348,136

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.40 = $A333,040,651

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A300,307,486

Discount to SAR Valuation = 47%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.72

[shasta]

[
Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap ;)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.17/0.989 = $A659,348,070

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.50 = $A349,343,340

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A310,004,730

Discount to SAR Valuation = 47%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.83

[shasta]

How much longer will the market continue to ignore Straits Resources?

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S1.09/0.9985 = $A608,420,163

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.40 = $A326,053,784

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A282,366,379

Discount to SAR Valuation = 46%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.61

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.99/0.9972 = $A553,322,199

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.45 = $A337,698,562

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A215,623,637

Discount to SAR Valuation = 39%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.38

Nice to finally see the discount under 40%...

If anyone knows why this company is lagging so badly please advise!

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap :)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.99/0.9818 = $A562,001,320

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.525 = $A355,165,729

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A206,835,591

Discount to SAR Valuation = 37%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.41

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap :)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.97/0.9953 = $A543,178,910

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.395 = $A324,889,306

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A218,289,604

Discount to SAR Valuation = 40%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.33

[underDOG]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap :)

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.97/0.9953 = $A543,178,910

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.395 = $A324,889,306

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A218,289,604

Discount to SAR Valuation = 40%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.33


am i getting the feeling shasta, SRL is getting a better valuation slowly?

from over 50%

to 30s!! lows


now 40 seems reasonable, cant go much lower?

[shasta]

am i getting the feeling shasta, SRL is getting a better valuation slowly?

from over 50%

to 30s!! lows


now 40 seems reasonable, cant go much lower?

Straits Asia Resources (SAR:SGX) just needs to sign & ink the refinancing of there debt (as mentioned in last quarterly, it was all but finalised), & then SRL will be fully derisked IMO.

The reduction in discount to SAR valuation, is probably due to a few people realising, that the debt for the Jembayan Coal mine is sorted (+ an extra $70m for expansion).

I would still conservatively value SRL's non SAR assets at least a $1 per share

However with the markets as schizophrenic as ever, SRL could hit $1 again?

[underDOG]

yup, down heavily

-11%

[shasta]

yup, down heavily

-11%

Seems "Straits Asia Resources" (SAR:SGX) is the reason for the slide...

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.80/1.033 = $A431,633,193

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.095 = $A255,020,638

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A176,612,554

Discount to SAR Valuation = 41%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.85

[macduffy]

Macquarie Equities have an "Outperform" on SRL with a 12 month SP target of $3-00.

Disc: Not holding, but on my watchlist.

[Zephyrus]

The problem with SRL is that the only income they will receive is a dividend from SAR. I believe their other operations to be loss making at this point in time. Of course they could do a partial sell down of their SAR stake if they needed the cash.

[shasta]

The problem with SRL is that the only income they will receive is a dividend from SAR. I believe their other operations to be loss making at this point in time. Of course they could do a partial sell down of their SAR stake if they needed the cash.

SAR - Q3 Results

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429423

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429427

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429426

[shasta]

SAR - Q3 Results

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429423

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429427

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429426

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.80/1.01 = $A441,462,463

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.075 = $A250,362,727

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A191,099,736

Discount to SAR Valuation = 43%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.90

SRL will receive upwards of $13m in dividends from SAR in Dec, yet SRL can be bought at effectively 57c in the dollar?

For how much longer?

[Corporate]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.80/1.01 = $A441,462,463

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.075 = $A250,362,727

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A191,099,736

Discount to SAR Valuation = 43%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.90

SRL will receive upwards of $13m in dividends from SAR in Dec, yet SRL can be bought at effectively 57c in the dollar?

For how much longer?

SRL could be worth a trade at $1 may be a quick 20-50%

[shasta]

SRL could be worth a trade at $1 may be a quick 20-50%

SRL is very tradeable with +/- 30% swings in a day...

Usually runs hard in the morning (esp when SAR has gone up on the SGX), & tappers off in late trading...

Try watching the daily trades for a week on Stockness & see what i mean.

[shasta]

SRL is very tradeable with +/- 30% swings in a day...

Usually runs hard in the morning (esp when SAR has gone up on the SGX), & tappers off in late trading...

Try watching the daily trades for a week on Stockness & see what i mean.

Article from The Australian...

High coal prices drives up Straits' profit






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Alex Wilson | November 14, 2008

Article from: Dow Jones Newswires (http://www.dowjones.com/)

STRAITS Asia Resources' net profit for the September quarter rose to $US84.8 million from $US19 million last year.

The Singapore-based miner, which is 51 per cent owned by Straits Resources , said the increase in profit was largely due to higher average prices for coal and the extra volumes delivered by the Jembayan coal operation, acquired in December last year.

Straits Asia said its ability to meet targeted production of 9 million tonnes for 2008 will depend on good weather and sales for the year will depend on available shipping schedules.

The company said coal market conditions are volatile but that it has so far contracted sales for 2009 of 6.6 million tonnes of coal at an average selling price of $US114 per tonne.

[tricha]

High coal prices, expect it to get smashed, lets face it, iron ore is, coals next.
And then they have debt, toxic debt.


Bridge loan 220.0 220.0 220.0 220.0

Other current liabilities 136.2 122.0 88.5 129.3

Non-current liabilities 71.3 76.9 70.3 70.0

Total liabilities 427.5


Article from The Australian...

High coal prices drives up Straits' profit

STRAITS Asia Resources' net profit for the September quarter rose to $US84.8 million from $US19 million last year.

The Singapore-based miner, which is 51 per cent owned by Straits Resources , said the increase in profit was largely due to higher average prices for coal and the extra volumes delivered by the Jembayan coal operation, acquired in December last year.

Straits Asia said its ability to meet targeted production of 9 million tonnes for 2008 will depend on good weather and sales for the year will depend on available shipping schedules.

The company said coal market conditions are volatile but that it has so far contracted sales for 2009 of 6.6 million tonnes of coal at an average selling price of $US114 per tonne.

[shasta]

High coal prices, expect it to get smashed, lets face it, iron ore is, coals next.
And then they have debt, toxic debt.


Bridge loan

220.0 220.0 220.0 220.0


Other current liabilities



136.2 122.0 88.5 129.3


Non-current liabilities



71.3 76.9 70.3 70.0


Total liabilities 427.5




Tricha


Straits Asia Resources has the $230m debt re the Jembayan coal mine, NOT SRL. This debt is a rollover & in fact they got an extra $70m for expansion...


Even at $US50t profit x 11mt = $US550m profit for Straits Asia Resources (SRL equity accounts for 47.1% of this).


Based on the above, thats $US259m profit for SRL (AUD/USD is approx 0.65), so thats ~$A400m, take off 100m in expenses etc & it's trading on a P/E of <1 :eek:


Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap


SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.81/1.015 = $A444,778,869


SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.00 = $A232,895,560


Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A211,883,309


Discount to SAR Valuation = 48%


SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.91

[Zephyrus]

Yes, SAR seem to be fundamentally sound. They haven't really benefitted yet from the high coal prices as they were still selling on the old contracts, up until now. We could presume that coal prices will fall back to old contract prices again in the coming year, so base our forecasts on that.

But can SRL get their hands on SAR's cash? Only via dividend it seems. I believe SRL are losing money in all of their operations, bar SAR, in this environment, and that they are as a whole cashflow negative.

[shasta]

Yes, SAR seem to be fundamentally sound. They haven't really benefitted yet from the high coal prices as they were still selling on the old contracts, up until now. We could presume that coal prices will fall back to old contract prices again in the coming year, so base our forecasts on that.

But can SRL get their hands on SAR's cash? Only via dividend it seems. I believe SRL are losing money in all of their operations, bar SAR, in this environment, and that they are as a whole cashflow negative.

SRL - Ann re SAR debt refinancing...:)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429758

Given the profitablity & huge cashflows SAR generates, the repayment of the debt isn't an issue to my mind...

[shasta]

SRL - Ann re SAR debt refinancing...:)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=429758

Given the profitablity & huge cashflows SAR generates, the repayment of the debt isn't an issue to my mind...


Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap


SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.765*/1.016 = $A419,655,478

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.96 = $A223,579,738

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A196,075,740


Discount to SAR Valuation = 47%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.80


* SAR:SGX is cum dividend

[tricha]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap



SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.765*/1.016 = $A419,655,478


SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.96 = $A223,579,738

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A196,075,740


Discount to SAR Valuation = 47%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.80



* SAR:SGX is cum dividend


Enter stage right Jim Lennon, resource analyst at Macquarie Group. Lennon published a research note last night in which he and his team forecast a 60% decline in 2009 coal prices, a 20% decline in iron ore prices, and a 40% decline across the board in base metals. It wasn't quite metals Armageddon, but you could hear some of the seals popping with each forecast.

--Keep in mind coal and iron ore are coming off big years in 2008, where thermal and coking coal were up triple digits and iron ore an average of 85%. In other words, the declines are coming off a big increase. But let's not sugar coat it. These are sobering forecasts for resource demand and for resource producers.

Coal just like minerals, is going to get popped, unfortunately.:(

[shasta]

Enter stage right Jim Lennon, resource analyst at Macquarie Group. Lennon published a research note last night in which he and his team forecast a 60% decline in 2009 coal prices, a 20% decline in iron ore prices, and a 40% decline across the board in base metals. It wasn't quite metals Armageddon, but you could hear some of the seals popping with each forecast.

--Keep in mind coal and iron ore are coming off big years in 2008, where thermal and coking coal were up triple digits and iron ore an average of 85%. In other words, the declines are coming off a big increase. But let's not sugar coat it. These are sobering forecasts for resource demand and for resource producers.

Coal just like minerals, is going to get popped, unfortunately.:(

I'd be a little skeptical of Macquarie, given they can't sort there own sh*t out!

Most of SAR's FY08 9mt was at $US70/t, & i see a big chunk of FY09's 11mt is already contracted at $US114/t...

Yup i agree the likes of MCC, WHC, GCL, NHC, PRC, SRL etc will come off the boil when there contracts are renewed for the FY10 tender rounds.

Still see some "selective" upside in those with FY09 contracts in place.

I like NHC & SRL, as they have other non coal assets & will survive a drop off in coal prices.

SRL look set to produce around 100k/oz Au for FY09, & are reducing the cash costs for there other projects (esp Copper).

They both get my attention for being undervalued!

[tricha]

I'd be a little skeptical of Macquarie, given they can't sort there own sh*t out!

Most of SAR's FY08 9mt was at $US70/t, & i see a big chunk of FY09's 11mt is already contracted at $US114/t...

Yup i agree the likes of MCC, WHC, GCL, NHC, PRC, SRL etc will come off the boil when there contracts are renewed for the FY10 tender rounds.

Still see some "selective" upside in those with FY09 contracts in place.

I like NHC & SRL, as they have other non coal assets & will survive a drop off in coal prices.

SRL look set to produce around 100k/oz Au for FY09, & are reducing the cash costs for there other projects (esp Copper).

They both get my attention for being undervalued!

WELL buy them then, I'm sticking to PPP who r trading at a 20% discount to cash holdings. ;) and no bloody debt.,:D

[shasta]

WELL buy them then, I'm sticking to PPP who r trading at a 20% discount to cash holdings. ;) and no bloody debt.,:D

SRL are at a 47% discount to there holding in SAR alone...

They have bugger all debt & are in a "net cash" position...

$A13m divvie coming soon from SAR :D

When PPP decide to disclose what they will do with the cash to "enhance shareholder value", you may see either a premium or a bigger discount...

When PPP is trading around 2/3's of fair value i'll buy, & not before.

[tricha]

SRL are at a 47% discount to there holding in SAR alone...

They have bugger all debt & are in a "net cash" position...

$A13m divvie coming soon from SAR :D

When PPP decide to disclose what they will do with the cash to "enhance shareholder value", you may see either a premium or a bigger discount...

When PPP is trading around 2/3's of fair value i'll buy, & not before.

Buy them then, if they r that cheap. I can not quite remember, which country r they in :confused:

[underDOG]

Buy them then, if they r that cheap. I can not quite remember, which country r they in :confused:

then tony (with the girls name), you should lay off the turps for just one night

because PM shows you up as the usual twit you are (I mean U R):D

[Corporate]

SRL are at a 47% discount to there holding in SAR alone...

They have bugger all debt & are in a "net cash" position...

$A13m divvie coming soon from SAR :D

When PPP decide to disclose what they will do with the cash to "enhance shareholder value", you may see either a premium or a bigger discount...

When PPP is trading around 2/3's of fair value i'll buy, & not before.

Shasta, I'd say PPP are getting close. MC $117M, cash a month ago $150M. Getting there!

[Zephyrus]

SRL are not SAR!!

Who's to say SAR are valued correctly in the 1st place? If coal prices do go into freefall!!

SRL don't have access to SAR's cash.

SRL will be losing money on their other assets. Check out the contracts they have to refine their copper. It's in the broker's reports.

[shasta]

SRL are not SAR!!

Who's to say SAR are valued correctly in the 1st place? If coal prices do go into freefall!!

SRL don't have access to SAR's cash.

SRL will be losing money on their other assets. Check out the contracts they have to refine their copper. It's in the broker's reports.

I don't have a handle on the SGX, so no i can't say whether SAR is fair value or not.

If you check there quarterly reports they show "Group" cash balances, so i assume there are funding arrangements in place.

As i posted earlier, SAR have a big chunk of revenue under contract for FY09, so a dropping price won't affect them until it's time for renewal in(2010).

I'll do some more analysis on SRL's other projects, & run some numbers...


Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap


SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.655*/1.016 = $A359,666,863

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.83 = $A193,303,315

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A166,363,548

Discount to SAR Valuation = 46%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.54

[soulman]

Technically SRL at close today, they are heading for the low 60's soon. Our market is frisky ATM and the ban on short selling on non-financial stocks will just make it hard for debt laden coy.

[shasta]

Technically SRL at close today, they are heading for the low 60's soon. Our market is frisky ATM and the ban on short selling on non-financial stocks will just make it hard for debt laden coy.

I'm staying away until it technically behaves itself, like everythign else i'm looking at!

Today's drop was largely in keeping with SAR...

Somethings just don't make sense, SAR have the debt refinanced (& were given extra!), & can easily finance the debt...

Even at an insanely reduced $US20/t profit, that's still a $US220m margin(based on 11mt), & they have over half of there FY09 production contracted at $US114/t :rolleyes:

Surely some of this "good news" from SAR can filter down to SRL?

[soulman]

Shasta, refinancing debt is one thing but the debt is still there, are they not? Haven't done much research on SRL but it doesn't really matter at this stage. The lessons has been learned from me that 'Don't buy anything ATM' because you will get cut. The sharemarket are so fragile that even stock offering potential 10%+ FF dividend are being sold down.

[shasta]

Shasta, refinancing debt is one thing but the debt is still there, are they not? Haven't done much research on SRL but it doesn't really matter at this stage. The lessons has been learned from me that 'Don't buy anything ATM' because you will get cut. The sharemarket are so fragile that even stock offering potential 10%+ FF dividend are being sold down.

I can assure you, i have a system that has been revised during my inactivity in the market, & the finger is well away from the trigger!

I'm not buying/trading anything until the markets all settle down!

All the fundamental research i do, is worth squat in this market, but it identifies areas of interest for when things gradually improve...

Disc: Holding some worthless URAO only (lotto ticket?)

[shasta]

I can assure you, i have a system that has been revised during my inactivity in the market, & the finger is well away from the trigger!

I'm not buying/trading anything until the markets all settle down!

All the fundamental research i do, is worth squat in this market, but it identifies areas of interest for when things gradually improve...

Disc: Holding some worthless URAO only (lotto ticket?)

SRL - Market Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430047

[tricha]

SRL - Market Update

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430047

Straits reviews viability of copper mines


20th November 2008, 11:45 WST

Straits Resources is reviewing the viability of its Tritton copper mine in New South Wales and Whim Creek copper mine in WA after a sharp plunge in the metal’s price.
Straits on Thursday confirmed to the Australian stock exchange that a news report containing this information earlier this week was correct and reflected “commodity market reality”.
Chief executive Milan Jerkovic said the company was reviewing whether to continue mining at Tritton following a dramatic drop in the copper price.
Mr Jerkovic said the mine was marginal due to a halving of copper prices this year and that was prepared to take tough decisions on the mine’s future if conditions did not improve.
“Nothing is imminent, but you've got to look at the costs of these things and be prepared to make hard decisions,” he said in statements provided at the ASX request.
“We're not prepared to operate at a loss.”
Copper for December delivery was down 3.6 per cent to $US1.6015 a pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange on Wednesday amid news that London Metal Exchange stockpiles had grown to the highest level since March 2004.
Shares in Straits were down seven cents, or 8.24 per cent, at 78 cents at 11.32am.
AAP

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap



SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.675/1.037 = $A362,785,721


SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.75 = $A174,671,670


Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A188,114,051


Discount to SAR Valuation = 52%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.56

Chairman's address at AGM
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430253

CEO Presentation
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430255

Anyone watching SRL, or interested in there projects in general, the CEO's presentation is a good read

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap




SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.675/1.037 = $A362,785,721


SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.75 = $A174,671,670


Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A188,114,051


Discount to SAR Valuation = 52%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.56

Chairman's address at AGM
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430253

CEO Presentation
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430255

Anyone watching SRL, or interested in there projects in general, the CEO's presentation is a good read

SRL - Jembayan JORC resource upgrade to 254mt

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430512

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap


SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.66/1.04 = $A353,700,575


SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.65 = $A151,382,114


Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A202,318,461


Discount to SAR Valuation = 57%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.52

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap



SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.66/1.04 = $A353,700,575



SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.65 = $A151,382,114



Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A202,318,461



Discount to SAR Valuation = 57%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.52

SRL - SAR ann re drawdown of debt facility :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430595

Market likes it ;)

[shasta]

SRL - SAR ann re drawdown of debt facility :)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430595

Market likes it ;)

SRL - Tritton Copper Operations scaled back :confused:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=430989

SRL is a high cost Copper producer & this is a sensible decision to make

[shasta]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap


SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.6/1.025 = $A364,314,206

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.72 = $A167,684,803

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A196,629,403

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.56

[Corporate]

Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap


SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.6/1.025 = $A364,314,206

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.72 = $A167,684,803

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A196,629,403

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.56

Shasta, no daily updates for a while?

What do you think of this?
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=432188

[shasta]

Shasta, no daily updates for a while?

What do you think of this?
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=432188

Oops, i have the SRL details on a spreadsheet, i'll update it for tonight

I think it's the best think SRL can do to realise full value of there investment.

I said a while back (before SAR dropped off) that SRL could have sold it's holding & bought GCL outright & had money left!

SRL still have 2 coal projects in there own right, so selling at a "decent" price would enable them to develop some of there other projects into production.

I'm still watching SRL, but have more pressing targets...

[Corporate]

I'm still watching SRL, but have more pressing targets...

Do tell...what are in your sights?

[shasta]

Do tell...what are in your sights?

Can you see my signature below my posts?

If not go to User CP & change your settings...

I like AOE, NHC & LNC at the moment, no debt & all cashed up

[Corporate]

Can you see my signature below my posts?

If not go to User CP & change your settings...

I like AOE, NHC & LNC at the moment, no debt & all cashed up.

Cheers for that. Can see it now.

At what price are you going to go after AOE?

[shasta]

.

Cheers for that. Can see it now.

At what price are you going to go after AOE?

Not sure maybe around $2, keep an eye on the AOE thread.

Anyways here's the SRL update ;)


Today's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.78/1.018 = $A427,043,380

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.90 = $A209,606,004

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A217,437,376

Discount to SAR Valuation = 51%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.83

SRL only has about 50m debt, so i'd expect them to get at least $A350m for there SAR holding...

If a few want it, there could be a bidding war, only issue is that it's not a controlling stake & would trigger a takeover!

[Huang Chung]

So SRL are throwing out the baby and keeping the bath water.....

I'm not sure if the market will price SRL at their cash backing should they sell their stake in Straits Asia. Firstly, their remaining operations could be viewed as a net negative, and secondly, will the market trust them to spend the proceeds wisely.

Time will tell I guess.

[shasta]

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.84/1.015 = $A461,252,160

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.915 = $A213,099,437

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A248,152,723

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.96

If SRL sells it's SAR stake at a "reasonable price" i may be interested again, especially if the discount to "fair value" remains high.

[Huang Chung]

From what I can tell, Straits shot themselves in the foot when they set up Straits Asia. They would have been far better off keeping 100% of the Indonesian coal, and flicking some of their metals projects.

[shasta]

From what I can tell, Straits shot themselves in the foot when they set up Straits Asia. They would have been far better off keeping 100% of the Indonesian coal, and flicking some of their metals projects.

They still have the Brunei & Madagascar Coal projects, although these aren't anywhere as developed as the Jembayan/Sebuku projects, that are in production.

Will be interesting to see where they would look to spend the proceeds, should it go ahead.

Maybe buy Rincon Lithium off ADY, this project just needs funds!

[shasta]

Monday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.84*/0.9889 = $A473,425,971

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.82 = $A190,974,359

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A282,451,611

Discount to SAR Valuation = 60%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.03

* - SGX not open yet (I expect SAR to follow SRL & close down)

Mind you the discount is getting ridiculous unless there is something fundmentally wrong with Straits Asia Resources (SAR:SGX)?

Nothing i can think of, maybe the irrational markets at work, along with low commodity prices?

Over half of Straits Asia's FY09 forecast 11mt Coal has been contracted at $US114/t!

[shasta]

What would i know, SAR spikes !

Tuesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.93/1.011 = $A512,692,497

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.86 = $A200,290,182

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A312,402,316

Discount to SAR Valuation = 61%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.20

Hmm anyone like buying a $1 worth of assets for 39c?

When you think Gloucester Coal (GCL) @ $3.30 is worth around $A267m, SRL will have plenty of cash post sale to pick up a mid tier coal player...

The bigger the discount the more i like SRL...

[shasta]

What would i know, SAR spikes !

Tuesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.93/1.011 = $A512,692,497

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.86 = $A200,290,182

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A312,402,316

Discount to SAR Valuation = 61%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.20

Hmm anyone like buying a $1 worth of assets for 39c?

When you think Gloucester Coal (GCL) @ $3.30 is worth around $A267m, SRL will have plenty of cash post sale to pick up a mid tier coal player...

The bigger the discount the more i like SRL...

SRL - Ann from SAR (As sent to the Singapore exchange, "SGX")

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=432665

[shasta]

I've been a little remiss in keeping this up to date, been busy with work!

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.89/1.01 = $A491,126,990

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.97 = $A225,908,693

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A265,218,297

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.11

[shasta]

Monday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.785/1.007 = $A434,475,564

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.90 = $A209,606,004

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A224,869,560

Discount to SAR Valuation = 52%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.87

[shasta]

Wednesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.78/0.9946 = $A437,090,449

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.905 = $A210,770,482

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A226,319,967

Discount to SAR Valuation = 52%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.88

Worth keeping an eye on, especially if SRL realises it's SAR holdings at a decent price.

[shasta]

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.825/0.9643 = $A476,833,710

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.94 = $A218,921,826

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A257,911,884

Discount to SAR Valuation = 54%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.05

[shasta]

Monday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.87/0.9573 = $A506,519,725

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.10 = $A256,185,116

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A250,334,609

Discount to SAR Valuation = 49%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.17

[shasta]

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.935/0.9578 = $A544,078,980

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.09 = $A253,856,160

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A290,222,819

Discount to SAR Valuation = 53%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.34

SRL is going back on my watchlist, a company with a ~$250m market cap & looking to realise it's main asset (worth over $500m)...

Anyone else like buying $1 for just 47c?

[soulman]

Shasta, what about the debt. Enterprise Value are long gone in calculating a firm's worth since the D word become toxic. SRL are rising purely because of copper recovering. Just look at PNA. Even OZL might not survive bacause of debt and commodity prices has stabilise recently.

[shasta]

Shasta, what about the debt. Enterprise Value are long gone in calculating a firm's worth since the D word become toxic. SRL are rising purely because of copper recovering. Just look at PNA. Even OZL might not survive bacause of debt and commodity prices has stabilise recently.

I had typed a long well thought out response, only to lose it...:mad:

I'll try again :confused:

PNA & OZL are different beasts compared to SRL.

PNA's SP went from < 10c to > 20c on the back of refinancing there debt, NOT Copper prices.

Gold over $US700/oz lowers PNA's cash costs below $US0.90/lb, that IMO is the catalyst for the recovery.

They can service the debt & therefore companies that are able to, i no longer believe are "toxic".

The only "toxic" debt IMO is for those companies wanting "new debt", as raising equity on the markets will still be hard during 2009.

OZL made a bad decision in buying ZFX, adding to there zinc exposure (ZFX hardly covered themselves in glory buying AGM).

In short bad management from OZL, has seen billions of shareholder value wiped of it's Market Cap.

SRL has only $A50m debt, it's Straits Asia Resources (SGX:"SAR") that refinanced it's $US230m debt & in fact got $US300m to assist fund the development & extended exploration around Jembayan & Sebuku.

http://www.straits.com.au/files/News/2008/SRL_Debt_Facility_Extension_!20081201.pdf

SAR has forecast FY09 production of 9mt of thermal coal

http://www.straits.com.au/files/News/2008/SARL_Q3_Results_Media_Announcement_!20081114.pdf

[shasta]

Wednesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.91/0.9919 = $A511,326,936

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.08 = $A251,527,205

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A259,799,731

Discount to SAR Valuation = 51%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.20

Despite SRL's other assets not being highly profitable, i still contend 50%+ discount is a tad overkill.

Valuing all SRL's assets (non SAR) at even zero, it should be trading closer to $2.20.

I believe the following may occur during 2009, re SRL:

1. SAR Holding will be sold outright* (hopefully at no more than a 10% discount to market value, if any discount?), possibility of a decent capital return/dividend.

2. ...Or an existing or emerging coal company will be purchased IMO (I'd love to see SRL buy GCL!), else they may venture into gold &/or energy?

3. SRL's management to rationalise & sell off some of the smaller projects.

4. * The ASX listing of SAR/demerger comes back to the table, & SRL sells to SAR there coal interests & retains all non coal projects.

5. Or none of the above happens & the ridiculous discount widens further?

[Corporate]

Wednesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.91/0.9919 = $A511,326,936

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.08 = $A251,527,205

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A259,799,731

Discount to SAR Valuation = 51%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.20

Despite SRL's other assets not being highly profitable, i still contend 50%+ discount is a tad overkill.

Valuing all SRL's assets (non SAR) at even zero, it should be trading closer to $2.20.

I believe the following may occur during 2009, re SRL:

1. SAR Holding will be sold outright* (hopefully at no more than a 10% discount to market value, if any discount?), possibility of a decent capital return/dividend.

2. ...Or an existing or emerging coal company will be purchased IMO (I'd love to see SRL buy GCL!), else they may venture into gold &/or energy?

3. SRL's management to rationalise & sell off some of the smaller projects.

4. * The ASX listing of SAR/demerger comes back to the table, & SRL sells to SAR there coal interests & retains all non coal projects.

5. Or none of the above happens & the ridiculous discount widens further?


Shasta - if ya want another crazy discount. Look at HGO's holding in ESG compare to its Market Cap.

[shasta]

Shasta - if ya want another crazy discount. Look at HGO's holding in ESG compare to its Market Cap.

HGO reminds me more of ODN, although HGO has it's copper project.

A bit too small for me in this market & HGO doesn't have a decent enough stake (20%+)

I've traded ESG before, so know the company well, & i have heard NSW could be the "next" place for CSG to boom :confused:

I'll have a look at the old HGO thread.

[Corporate]

HGO reminds me more of ODN, although HGO has it's copper project.

A bit too small for me in this market & HGO doesn't have a decent enough stake (20%+)

I've traded ESG before, so know the company well, & i have heard NSW could be the "next" place for CSG to boom :confused:

I'll have a look at the old HGO thread.

They own 22-23% which is a reasonable stake. Odn were significanly smaller than HGO and seem a bit of shambles to me.

[shasta]

Wednesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.845/1.017= $A463,085,225

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.065 = $A248,033,771

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A215,051,454

Discount to SAR Valuation = 46%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.99

[shasta]

Wednesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.845/1.017= $A463,085,225

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.065 = $A248,033,771

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A215,051,454

Discount to SAR Valuation = 46%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.99

SRL issues convertible notes to fund $80m (strike price @ $1.45)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=436251

I'm still not quite sure about SRL, it looks good, but...:confused:

[shasta]

SRL - Quarterly report

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=436253

Really needs to address the stub with SAR, & once it sells out i'll be much happier buying in.

[shasta]

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.94/1.041= $A503,271,449

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.06 = $A246,869,294

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A256,402,155

Discount to SAR Valuation = 51%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.16

[shasta]

SRL - Ann re SAR:SGX - speculation about the SRL holding?

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=436950

Can't see any movement in SAR?

[shasta]

Tuesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.93/1.037= $A499,838,105

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.09 = $A253,856,160

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A245,981,945

Discount to SAR Valuation = 49%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.15

[shasta]

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.90/0.9913= $A506,014,046

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.08 = $A251,527,205

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A254,486,841

Discount to SAR Valuation = 50%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.17

NB, the drop in the Singapore $

[shasta]

Friday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 557,346,360 x $S0.755/1.011= $A416,218,103

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A0.90 = $A209,606,004

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A206,612,099

Discount to SAR Valuation = 50%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.79

[cloggs]

Today SRL dropped to A$0.83. What happened there? They've taken a bit of a dive all of a sudden.

[shasta]

Today SRL dropped to A$0.83. What happened there? They've taken a bit of a dive all of a sudden.

SRL - Various SAR related ann's

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=438952

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=438955

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=438957

SRL up 4c to 92c today

[Huang Chung]

Been doing a bit more homework on SRL.

Really, you'd only buy it for its coal interests, as the metals projects don't look too flash....some very high costs with one or two of them.

Straits have just reported a $106.7m loss for the half, brought down by the metals side of the business.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00932563

Glad I stayed away....

[shasta]

Straits have just reported a $106.7m loss for the half, brought down by the metals side of the business.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00932563

Glad I stayed away....

After reading the SRL ann a few times, there non coal projects are all high cost & relatively small & struggling to be cashflow positive & i cant see things changing...

No wonder the market is discounting the SAR holding...

I'm ending my interest in SRL.

Prefer GMI for global exposure & PNA for growth

[Bilo]

After reading the SRL ann a few times, there non coal projects are all high cost & relatively small & struggling to be cashflow positive & i cant see things changing...

No wonder the market is discounting the SAR holding...

I'm ending my interest in SRL.

Prefer GMI for global exposure & PNA for growth

Sorry to see your last post Shasta USD355M for 60pc of SARL...

[shasta]

Sorry to see your last post Shasta USD355M for 60pc of SARL...

SRL - Strategic Alliance on Coal Projects

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=441618

SRL - Presentation

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=SRL&E=ASX&N=441619

Well i alwasy thought the value in SRL would come from realising it's holding in SAR, but this transaction is far better than i expected.

I'll mull over the details & decide whether SRL warrants another look!

[Huang Chung]

Can't quite believe it, but I'm back in.

Cash consideration of $2.14 per share (partly conditional), less costs/taxation in respect of the transaction (15c) plus SRL's existing cash balance of 23cps gives an approximate cash backing of $2.22 per share, prior to a possible return of capital to shareholders which seems likely to be around 50cps.

Current share price is around $1.30.

Market will surely discount the new found cash backing, as there is always concerns about how smartly management might utilise it. Also a question mark around their metal projects....what sort of value do they really have?

Have you had a decent look yet Shasta?

[shasta]

Can't quite believe it, but I'm back in.

Cash consideration of $2.14 per share (partly conditional), less costs/taxation in respect of the transaction (15c) plus SRL's existing cash balance of 23cps gives an approximate cash backing of $2.22 per share, prior to a possible return of capital to shareholders which seems likely to be around 50cps.

Current share price is around $1.30.

Market will surely discount the new found cash backing, as there is always concerns about how smartly management might utilise it. Also a question mark around their metal projects....what sort of value do they really have?

Have you had a decent look yet Shasta?





I'm thinking about it, i am!

I never expected such a good outcome for SRL...:rolleyes:

I'm looking at 4 more stocks to make up the Shasta stable, with GMI already i have the mining sector covered...

PNA has shot well past my "fair value"...

I'll update the SRL position in light of the recent announcement & see how it pans out.

[shasta]

Tuesday's update SAR Holding v SRL Market Cap

SAR Holding = 514,679,220 x $S0.85/0.9427= $A464,068,460

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.30= $A302,764,228

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A161,304,232

Discount to SAR Valuation = 35%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A1.99

I have mentioned before on this thread that this outcome would happen & in hindsight i should have bought when SRL was <$1 & the discount was over 50%.

Nevermind the charts, this kind of discount simply cannot be ignored by both management & the market, one of them had to act.

The discount probably isn't big enough to justify "a punt", & like with LNC i wanna see them get the cash & what they plan to do with it first.

I always envisaged SRL having a crack at GCL, but with GCL hopping into bed with WHC, thats gone...

I'm not sure coal is the best bet either, the market would like to see them more into gold for sure...

[absolut-advance]

Hi Shasta,
How Much do you think SRL is worth Currently.

Can you do a valuation if its not too much trouble.

or does the above one still stand?

Thanks

[shasta]

Hi Shasta,
How Much do you think SRL is worth Currently.

Can you do a valuation if its not too much trouble.

or does the above one still stand?

Thanks

Would you like an update?

Sorry it's fallen off my radar, & i haven't kept up with the new proposed deal

[absolut-advance]

Would you like an update?

Sorry it's fallen off my radar, & i haven't kept up with the new proposed deal

If you had time that would be awesome.

I purchased some on Friday.

[shasta]

SAR Holding = 514,679,220 x $S1.06/0.9239= $A590,496,778

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.645= $A383,113,196

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A207,383,582

Discount to SAR Valuation = 35%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.54

This ignores the 60% SBI transaction whereby SRL receives $US220m upfront (SRL already has this, & has paid $A45m debt down)

[absolut-advance]

SAR Holding = 514,679,220 x $S1.06/0.9239= $A590,496,778

SRL Market Cap = 232,895,560 x $A1.645= $A383,113,196

Discrepancy to SAR Valuation = $A207,383,582

Discount to SAR Valuation = 35%

SAR Holding per SRL share = $A2.54

This ignores the 60% SBI transaction whereby SRL receives $US220m upfront (SRL already has this, & has paid $A45m debt down)

Cheerz :)...

[Hoop]

Big rise today up 6.6% under good volume.....anybody know whats cooking???

[Hoop]

Big rise today up 6.6% under good volume.....anybody know whats cooking???

Answering my own question...

Announcement....temporary suspension of processing activities at Hillgrove mine

[Huang Chung]

Answering my own question...

Announcement....temporary suspension of processing activities at Hillgrove mine

....and that's supposed to be a good thing? :confused:.