AVV---AAV LTD

[stolwyk]

31 May, 2004:
AAV LTD; code: AVV

Website:
http://www.aav.net

Bigchart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=AU%3AAVV&sid=0&o_symb=AU%3AAVV&freq=1&time=8&x=46&y=19

Shares: 82.1 mill. Options, unlisted: 2.55 mill, 2005-2007. Current price: $2.09. Two issues, one of 9.4 mill shares raising $13.16 mill.

The second of 8.57 mill shares raising $12 mill.

NB: The share price went as high as $25.50 on 28 March 2000 (Dot.com days. They (ISIS at that time) were going to develop an Educational Search engine with Looksmart at one stage. Reorganisation started in Dec 2000).

April 29, 2004. Annual Meeting-Chairman's address:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=218978

Extract: Consolidated $m 2003---2002
Revenue $104.13--$ 32.35. EBITDA $24.58--$ 2.70. PBT $12.48-- ($5.11). PAT 10.96- ($3.70). Div: 6.5 cents for the year: final of 4 cents paid in March.

Consolidated $m 2003--- $m 2002

Current assets $53.65--$25.00; Non-current assets $85.69--$44.91; Total assets $139.34--$69.91.

Current liabilities $37.54--$17.41; Non-current liabilities $29.59--$16.18; Total liabilities $67.13--$33.59

Net assets $72.21--$36.32.

Consolidated $m 2003--- $m 2002
Cash flows for operating activities $25.40-- $3.61; Cash flows from investing activities ($27.27)-- $3.31

Cash flows from financing activities $21.85 ($1.67), Net change in cash $19.98-- $5.25

Opening cash position 1 January 2003: $7.31-- $2.06, Closing cash position 31 December 2003: $27.29 --$7.31

Any new unmarketable parcels of shares will be sold.
After the Chairman, the CEO discussed rationalisation and expansion.

PREVIOUS HISTORY.
June 19, 2002: Proposed merger with AAV Australian Pty Ltd:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=191462

Sept. 5: 2002: Fox Sports SANZAR Super 12 Rugby Contract
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=194330

May 6, 2003: Joint Venture with Regency Recordings:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=203948

Oct. 30, 23003: + + + Presentation re Placement on Staging Connections Acquisition:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=211230

Extract:
AAV Limited acquiring 100% of the shares of Staging Connections for $40m, with an additional amount of up to $10m in earn out.

Combined AAV-Staging Connections business will be the largest electronic media services group in the Pacific Rim.

March 2, 2004: 2003 Results - Analyst Presentation:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=216343

Extract: Tax losses available: $31 mill. Reorganisation of SC to continue.
New venues to open in 2004
•Perth: Convention Centre
•Gold Coast: Convention Centre
•Auckland: Convention Centre
•Sydney: Luna Park Convention Centre, Doltone House, Hilton Hotel.
Melbourne:Promenade

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

May 13, 2004:
The change of name to AVV?

AAV merged with ISIS and the merged company then became AAV (code AVV):

Date: 10 Sept. 2002: Here is a notice calling a meeting to effect certain matters including the change of name:

ITEM 8: CHANGE OF COMPANY NAME
To consider and, if thought fit, pass the following resolution as a special resolution:

"That subject to the passing of and with effect from the date of the issue of the shares contemplated in the resolution in Item 1, the Company change its name to AAV Ltd".

Gerry

[stolwyk]

May 13, 2004:

Guided profit forecast for the Dec. 31, 2004 year.

1. Last year's data.

Profit was $10.96 mill; weighted shares used in calculation of E/S: 65.1 mill (See Annual Report). E/S: 16.8 and based on the current price of $2.09, the retrospective P/E was: 12.4.

2. Last year, the number of shares were increased and are now 82.1 mill., say 82.5 for the current year's calculation. Current price: $2.09.

I consider that any profit increase will be from 4 sources:
1. Current resources.

2. Expansion. On 31 Dec., AVV had $27.3 mill cash and that would have increased since. They are not new to suitable takeovers.

3. Reorganisation and Relocation resulting in savings: this is to continue arising from the SC acquisition.

4. Tax losses.


Assuming that we have a reasonable economy, we may expect a 45% rise in earnings to $15.89 mill or E/S= 19.26 cents with a P/E of 10.85, say 11.

As to dividends, last year's dividend was 6.5 cents; possibly 8.5 cents this year?

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[thereslifeafter87]

Gerry,

I checked this stock out in August last year.
For some reason I decided against buying (I can't remember why).
Since then it has increased in value by 81.6% :(

If I get a chance, I will have a look and refresh my memory as
to what the company does.

From memory weren't they involved with DVD printing?

[stolwyk]

DVD's:

Annual Report:

"In July 2003, AAV and Regency Recordings
formed a joint venture called AAV Regency
to manage our DVD, CD, VHS and audio
cassette manufacture and related services
to a variety of customers.

AAV Regency is supported by our 25.5% owned company,
Multi Media Logistics, which distributes its
products and provides logistics services to other companies"

"AAVR commenced operations on 1 July 2003 and the integration process has proceeded smoothly, with the business performing to expectations in a rapidly growing DVD market.

AAVR is reviewing capital equipment requirements in anticipation of continued growth in demand for DVD production. AAVR is the key component of a totally integrated creative solutions, manufacturing,
distribution and logistics business provided by the AAV Group to service the home entertainment industry:
• Digital Pictures Interactive provides DVD software, database design and quality assurance services.
• AAV Regency produces programme masters, then manufactures and packs
product in DVD, CD, VHS or audio cassette format.
• Multi Media Logistics then processes orders from retailers, performs pick and pack distribution and transactional
accounting services on behalf of our clients".


Cheers,

Gerry

[Stock Man]

Hi Gerry - Must admit, I have looked at AVV also. An interesting company and interesting chart also[:p] Just in the last few months it appeared back on my radar.

Rgds

[thekiwi]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Yes, I don't know why it hasn't moved higher yet; a few false starts. I have another one which could be interesting too: See the GTP thread

Cheers,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.




Hey Gerry
See you have these details in your posting

Posted - 13/07/2004 : 11:45:35 AM

Could you maybe give us tinkel on how some ASX stops open today :D

[stolwyk]

Yes, I don't know why it hasn't moved higher yet; a few false starts. I have another one which could be interesting too: See the GTP thread

Cheers,

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[thekiwi]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Kiwi,

How come that the posts don't follow time? Yours is answering a post of mine to come. What is happening?
______________________________

You wrote:
Hey Gerry
See you have these details in your posting

Posted - 13/07/2004 : 11:45:35 AM

"Could you maybe give us tinkel on how some ASX stops open today"

Answ: I am not a trader and don't necessarily follow openings of stocks. What do you mean?

Gerry




Somehow you are posting in the future ... make the most of it ... :D


quote:
Posted - 13/07/2004 : 2:32:43 PM
Kiwi,

How come that the posts don't follow time? Yours is answering a post of mine to come. What is happening?
______________________________

You wrote:
Hey Gerry
See you have these details in your posting

Posted - 13/07/2004 : 11:45:35 AM

"Could you maybe give us tinkel on how some ASX stops open today"

Answ: I am not a trader and don't necessarily follow openings of stocks. What do you mean?

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Kiwi,

How come that the posts don't follow time? Yours is answering a post of mine to come. What is happening?
______________________________

You wrote:
Hey Gerry
See you have these details in your posting

Posted - 13/07/2004 : 11:45:35 AM

"Could you maybe give us tinkel on how some ASX stops open today"

Answ: I am not a trader and don't necessarily follow openings of stocks. What do you mean?

Gerry

[Stock Man]

The more I look at AVV the more I think that it would probably suit a long term hold. IMO the easy money has been taken.

[stolwyk]

Stockman. I don't believe it is a trader's stock just now. In any case people want to see the results first rather than prejudging these: the market has become tougher.

I am waiting for AVV to make a decision about the cash they are holding.

The financial year finishes on Dec 31, another negative.
The Interim last year was on 27 Aug.

Gerry
People keep telling me to adjust the clock. I have the right time and yet Sharetrader adds on another hour or less. And it is the only site doing that. The HC site has many posts, sometimes 3 posted at the same time and yet, mine fits in well.

[stolwyk]

Like GTP, another interesting stock:

Background to AVV: See post on this tread: Ref. date 11/7, time 11.53.


Extract:
"Assuming that we have a reasonable economy, we may expect a 45% rise in earnings to $15.89 mill or E/S= 19.26 cents with a P/E of 10.85, say 11.

As to dividends, last year's dividend was 6.5 cents; possibly 8.5 cents this year?".

______________________

Another quality stock IMHO. Was sitting on $27 mill cash at the beginning of the year and would most likely use it for another takeover.

Financial year closes 31 Dec.

At the current price of $2.25, the guided forecasted P/E=11.7.

This stock deserves better than that IMHO.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

$2.46: From HC:
Date: June 9: A's forecast: E/S=23 cents.

The consensus forecast given yesterday: Profit $15 mill (+48%), E/S is 19.26 cents, PEG of 0.41.

Date: 13 May. My guided forecast (See post dated 11 July, 11.53 am): "Price $2.09: Assuming that we have a reasonable economy, we may expect a 45% rise in earnings to $15.89 mill or E/S= 19.26 cents with a P/E of 10.85, say 11.

Comments: For some reason, the Consensus forecast and I have the same E/S: 19.26 cents. AVV has a very low PEG of 0.41.

I would upgrade my forecast if the $30 mill cash holdings they have, were spent shortly on a suitable takeover.

End of financial year: 31 Dec.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

Half Yearly Report/Half Year Accounts:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=223292

"Traditionally, group revenue is greater in the second half as compared to the first half and our 2004 calendar year budget is based on a 40/60 revenue split between first and second half"

NPAT: $4.741 mill.* Tax: 25.6% and tax losses available: $29.5 mill. Cash: $17.3 mill.
Current assets/current liabilities: 1.4. Net debt: $14.4 mill. ($4 mill was paid back)

* Compares with $2.503 mill last year after the extra- ordinary gains were excluded.


COMMENT:
The guided forecast was $15.89 mill but the first half contributed $4.741 mill which is somewhat below what I expected.

Based on previous history, NPAT, H1: 40% and H2: 60%, we would get a NPAT of $11.8 mill + some savings from reorganisation and synergy, say $12.5-$13 mill.

This guided forecast could be lower than the Consensus forecast. The performance of the Staging Connection needs to be followed.

I have decided to withdraw from any forecasting of AVV's profits and leave that to the brokers.

Current price: $2.44.

Gerry

[tracker]

another stolli gem, stops wouldnt have helped you out guys
oh but i can almost say that stolli sold he just forgot to tell you all
well done stolli
tracker

[stolwyk]

Tracker,

For starters take notice of this disclaimer:
"Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks".

Please read it again and try to understand its implication.

So, it is over to the readers to decide what to do; no excuses please/.

I said this on 30 Aug:
"This guided forecast could be lower than the Consensus forecast. The performance of the Staging Connection needs to be followed.

I have decided to withdraw from any forecasting of AVV's profits and leave that to the brokers".

I also produced much lower tentative numbers but only as examples as I had withdrawn from forecasting. Obviously, withdrawing is a very serious matter and arouses suspicion as to profits. (Share price: $2.44).

That was a warning to readers. That you don't understand that, is your problem.

You didn't say anything at that time, why not?

Now you write these dishonest remarks 2 months later:

"another stolli gem, stops wouldnt have helped you out guys
oh but i can almost say that stolli sold he just forgot to tell you all
well done stolli"


When I wrote that post on 30 August saying that I would discontinue forecasting (AVV was $2.44) I received quite a lot of flack from a reasonable AVV Holder on Hotcopper and he is good in TA.

He suggested I was too pessimistic in withdrawing my forecasting and my reference to possible lower profit numbers. He referred to other forecasts as far as I can remember. Became quite upset by it.

I did reiterate that those brokers' numbers were far too optimistic.

That was the second time a warning was issued, very responsibly, I would say. Remember I was virtually the only one playing with lower numbers. That warning would have been issued in the first week of Sept. Suggest you refer to HC posts.

Current share price: $1.71.

Tracker, your criticism is devious and totally unwarranted. Please mind your own business.

Gerry

[tracker]

well the one reader who read your post disagreed , did you tell him/her that you sold as had lost confidance in the stock, alot of "readers" following your post possibly need that info
had that ever occured to you????
take responsibility for you posting stolli
people just lost 50% maybe as a reult of your "study threads"
have a good day and make some money on your own bat not at the expense of others.
tracker

[stolwyk]

I don't think that any would have lost if they could read. I supplied the best info which at that time was not available.

You don't want to acknowledge this.

Have you stopped abusing me yet?

Now, from now on don't sound like a parrot. Don't bother discussing shares with me. Don't advice me; I don't want it, idiot.

Gerry

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

I have decided to withdraw from any forecasting of AVV's profits and leave that to the brokers.

Current price: $2.44.

Gerry


ahhahahaahaha Im really falling off the chair, have you ever seen such rubbish:D:D:D:D:D:D

Youll note Stolli had written cash reserves of $30m on the 3rd. The report comes out with only $17m just 27 days later.


Id suggest you go buy a dartboard Stolli and leave it to the brokers:D:D:D

another ASC, PTD, LOK anyone????

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by tracker

well the one reader who read your post disagreed , did you tell him/her that you sold as had lost confidance in the stock, alot of "readers" following your post possibly need that info
had that ever occured to you????take responsibility for you posting stolli
people just lost 50% maybe as a reult of your "study threads"
have a good day and make some money on your own bat not at the expense of others.
tracker



EXACTLY TRACKER, SPOT ON!!!

another Stolli GEM, DOWN 33% plus in ONE DAY

[stolwyk]

C9 blowing another lot of hot air.

You said: "Youll note Stolli had written cash reserves of $30m on the 3rd. The report comes out with only $17m just 27 days later".


I made my forecast on May 13. They had cash of $27.3 mill.

The Half Yearly Announcement came out on Aug 25., some 3.5 months later, not 27 days as you suggest.

BTW, did very well on LOK. (You said. I didn't).

Gerry

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

I would upgrade my forecast if the $30 mill cash holdings they have, were spent shortly on a suitable takeover.


Gerry



omg, you are a moron

[stolwyk]

There hasn't been any criticism on HotCopper about my conduct (not one) except from that guy who suggested that my forecast was too low.

And there were holders alright. Obviously, when I said that the brokers forecasts were too high, these HC people would have known that if I were correct, the price of $2.44 had to fall.

It doesn't take a rocket scientist to grasp that.

Actually, my fears re lower earnings were proved today:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=226728

[Burgerbun]

I see you avoided the issue completely as usual.

Why do you deny the opportunity to learn from your mistakes?



On the 3rd of August you wrote: *if the $30m cash holdings they have*....

On the 30th of August the report YOU posted said cash $17.3m.

that IS 27 days right Gerry?


Are you this stupid Stolli???
I know you are stubborn, ignorant and facile however because you have sucked in quite a few people with your games, I actually gave you some credit there considering your age.

I will have to withdraw this.

You now have absolutely no credibility, because you firstly cannot admit to facts put right in front of your face...
and secondly, the fact that you hide behind some thin veil of diplomacy when you have been caught by the likes of P.O.D today.

I was disgusted.

You bring it on yourself.

I feel sorry for you

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

$2.46: From HC:
Date: June 9: A's forecast: E/S=23 cents.

The consensus forecast given yesterday: Profit $15 mill (+48%), E/S is 19.26 cents, PEG of 0.41.

Date: 13 May. My guided forecast (See post dated 11 July, 11.53 am): "Price $2.09: Assuming that we have a reasonable economy, we may expect a 45% rise in earnings to $15.89 mill or E/S= 19.26 cents with a P/E of 10.85, say 11.

Comments: For some reason, the Consensus forecast and I have the same E/S: 19.26 cents. AVV has a very low PEG of 0.41.

I would upgrade my forecast if the $30 mill cash holdings they have, were spent shortly on a suitable takeover.

End of financial year: 31 Dec.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.






3rd of August

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

Half Yearly Report/Half Year Accounts:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=AVV&E=ASX&N=223292

"Traditionally, group revenue is greater in the second half as compared to the first half and our 2004 calendar year budget is based on a 40/60 revenue split between first and second half"

NPAT: $4.741 mill.* Tax: 25.6% and tax losses available: $29.5 mill. Cash: $17.3 mill.
Current assets/current liabilities: 1.4. Net debt: $14.4 mill. ($4 mill was paid back)

* Compares with $2.503 mill last year after the extra- ordinary gains were excluded.


COMMENT:
The guided forecast was $15.89 mill but the first half contributed $4.741 mill which is somewhat below what I expected.

Based on previous history, NPAT, H1: 40% and H2: 60%, we would get a NPAT of $11.8 mill + some savings from reorganisation and synergy, say $12.5-$13 mill.

This guided forecast could be lower than the Consensus forecast. The performance of the Staging Connection needs to be followed.

I have decided to withdraw from any forecasting of AVV's profits and leave that to the brokers.

Current price: $2.44.

Gerry




30th of August.....Hello????????? Just incase you feel the need for your favourite button;)

[stolwyk]

C9,

You were the only one who knew (by hindsight) that they had approx $17.3 mill cash on 3 August that was before the 6 monthly report at the end of August. That would be inside information. So, let us be real here unless you don't want to play it fair.

As far as the POD is concerned I adequately answered that. Please go back to the correct thread and read it again.

I don't care about your personal remarks.

And as said, I had no complaints about my treatment of AVV from the HC posters. So, that leaves you and Tracker. Make the most of it if you must.

Gerry

[Burgerbun]

Yep, you are a moron...just proved it again.


Gerry, just so you can sleep, it was a comment aimed at why you even suggest your prowess at forecasting is worth 2 cents.

You keep posting stats on how accurate you have been with forecasting ...and I believe the information you give is nothing but re-engineered numbers from ALREADY AVAILABLE information from the company itself and brokers.

[tracker]

well avv holding and dipping below 175 NOT A GOOD LOOK, chewing thru charts I would say that 175 might now act as resistance, and 150 might be on cards
hope for holders sake i am wrong BUT it has not bounced really at all, even tho it has tried so lower looks to be the goal
tracker
stops as always
tracker
ps after 150 comes 126ish

[stolwyk]

C9,

You must be a MORON, if you can't understand that when I gave a warning for lower profits, as I did, then some people would take notice and sell their shares for the simple reason the price was too high. Other people didn't because they believed the brokers.

As to my forecasting, I know you use insults and ridicule as your weapons and you try to marginalize people. And of course you are trying to score maximum points.

So, you are jealous, because I make forecasts. For your info, I'll continue to do so.

As to my private life, that doesn't consern you. Some older people don't need that much sleep.

So, I do hope that you will be a bit more charming than you have been in the past, a vain hope, I think.

Gerry

[Burgerbun]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

C9,

You must be a MORON, if you can't understand that when I gave a warning for lower profits, as I did, then some people would take notice and sell their shares for the simple reason the price was too high. Other people didn't because they believed the brokers.

As to my forecasting, I know you use insults and ridicule as your weapons and you try to marginalize people. And of course you are trying to score maximum points.

ITS JUST TOO DAMN EASY



So, you are jealous, because I make forecasts. For your info, I'll continue to do so.
As to my private life, that doesn't consern you. Some older people don't need that much sleep.

So, I do hope that you will be a bit more charming than you have been in the past, a vain hope, I think.

Gerry



:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

gerry, youre PURE SPORT you POOR SPORT..............

Ive played with you in my scope for so long, I know your game.