Hard Year!

[Dr_Who]

This has been a hard year to add value to the portfolio, unless you have short positions. Anyone out there have stories they would like to share? Pls keep your BS stories to the minimal, cos this is not a fishing competition and the fish is not that "BIG" to prove your manhood.

My portfolio has been down this year, but overall including last year it is still with a healthy gain thanks to resources, but it has been a tough year. My hedging did help abit, but still hard yards.

[elZorro]

Dr Who, this is the first year I've made a return so far, all with OGC, although I was lucky to buy FPA when it was at a low last year and made a bit on that. But then I'm not fulltime on shares or investing a great deal, still learning.

[Hoop]

.... cos this is not a fishing competition and the fish is not that "BIG" to prove your manhood.....



My manhood has shrunk this year, Mrs Hoop is becoming concerned.:(

[Stranger_Danger]

I haven't got much to report, am over 80% in cash and have been for months.

I sold several positions late last year/early this year which was hard at the time (things were getting *really* bullish back then) but in hindsight was the right thing to do.

Best sell : CFE at 62 or so.

Worst non sell : Bought PPP at 20 cents. Held all the way up. Didn't sell a share. Procrastinated all the way down. Still hold. Ghosts of Phaedrus haunt my dreams on this one.

[Dr_Who]

Yeah, I hear you guys.

I am also holding mostly cash, but still have a nice portfolio that is looking nasty. The global market PE is looking cheap, but investors are nervous. Any negative news and everyone heads for the hills. Most of the stocks on my watchlist is looking way too cheap, but am cautious in buying.

Anyone buying today?

[Pumice]

I had 50% of my portfolio in BP stock...... Ouch
Should've cashed up after they made me redundant!

[BWH]

I had a big chunk in BP as well, which has hurt.
Aside from BP I'm well down this year and am only up overall, due to taking advantage of Nuplex's misfortune last year. That is the only holding keeping my portfolio above water. If only PRC would ship some coal or NZO would strike some oil, things would look a little rosier... Maybe...

[winner69]

Yeah, I hear you guys.

I am also holding mostly cash, but still have a nice portfolio that is looking nasty. The global market PE is looking cheap, but investors are nervous. Any negative news and everyone heads for the hills. Most of the stocks on my watchlist is looking way too cheap, but am cautious in buying.

Anyone buying today?

You should know by now DR that until global PEs get down to 7 to 8 range the bears will rule ..... a few more rallies to come yet so dont despair but the overall trend is flat to down

[trackers]

My last few years have been: 2008 ~40% ROI, 2009 ~100% ROI, 2010 YTD ~-5% ROI... So not too bad.

I'm about 75% cash at the moment, because: No matter what it looks like technically I want some exposure to the Panakawa drill for NGE.ax, and AVB.ax holding is worth so little that I might as well continue to hold medium/longterm

[Footsie]

DR, tis a tough market. I hear you. you say shorts are making money, well they were getting squeezed in April. Best to hold cash or clear conviction investments. Its not a time to be long and forget or short and forget either.
still 6 months to go, I thin if yuo hcan finish the year, ahead of term deposit, then probably you should be happy.

[h2so4]

My manhood has shrunk this year, Mrs Hoop is becoming concerned.:(

Dont sweat the small stuff.:)

[Logen Ninefingers]

My manhood has shrunk this year, Mrs Hoop is becoming concerned.:(

Wouldn't this be a post for a forum dealing with medical concerns?

[Cannibal]

A tough year - or rather a tough last 3-4 months for me. I made plenty on BLT, XRO, and OGC and then I got the idea that speccie Oz mining shares were a good idea - sigh.

[Logen Ninefingers]

Consumer confidence in the USA just dropped.....shares were dumped, people fled to bonds and cash. There are fears of a slow-down in China's recovery......the markets sh*t the bed, panic selling ensued. There are renewed fears about the debt crisis in Greece......the Dow nose-dived, the sky is falling. Smiles turned to frowns as questions were raised about the robustness of the recovery in Latvia.....everyone got the sh*ts, "sell, sell, sell".

How do you win?

[Logen Ninefingers]

Yes!! I just sold a bunch of expensive shares for a helluva lot less than I paid for them!! Now I'm going to use the money to buy a big quantity of shares that are a helluva lot cheaper per unit than the ones I just sold. The next step is to give all the shares - the ones I sold and the ones I bought - a valuation of $1 each in my mind.
I think I just made thousands of dollars!!! :eek2:

[absolut-advance]

June . This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks........ The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, October, December, August and February.

[Hoop]

Wouldn't this be a post for a forum dealing with medical concerns?

Thats Ok ..LN.... my doc said I should take these pills I think they contain South Island male blue duck hormones in them..They have PRC written on the label. Doc reckons they are slow acting and give early side effects of feeling financially depressed but Doc reckons this will pass and in a month or so you should see the start of enormous growth feeling. Doc said to be careful and only take two pills a day..

...ah hell what does he know..I just swallowed the entire bottle contents ,,we'll wait now and see what springs up;)

[percy]

My year can be described as,character building and I am well positioned for an upturn,or in truth,terrible,or just a horrible disaster.Would be better off if I had left my cash buried in the garden!

[absolut-advance]

Some of the best long term Portfolios can be formed in times of bad market sentiment, quality companies....... read proven blue chips, can be acquired at prices that would be unobtainable in the good times, for the long time portfolio I like to focus on companies with a history of earnings growth which also pay a dividend, bonus if it pays a dividend above the rate of inflation. Its hard to do but keep some money a side for times like these as there is money to be made you just might not see it today.

Disc: I dont directly invest on the NZX, just ASX and international markets.

AA

[waterboy]

yip tough year for me to, made money in jan feb mar small loss in april and june to date but bigger loss in may ruined it. Only second year of about 7 that could well end up being a loss. Have been saved from further losses from RBD and OGC. I must say I do like the resistance of RBD ...it is very stable to date compared to other stocks but SP has levelled off. Been trying to trade in and out with the momentum but a month of gains can disappear in a couple of days in resources which makes my sell points a nightmare to pick. The price drops well below the sell price so quickly...have to decide do you hold longer or get out and look after your capital?

[RRR]

It has been a 'hard year' for my not so significant share portfolio too. I have direct investments in NZ, Ozzie and India. NZ and Ozzie portfolio are in the negative now(-5 and -10%). My Indian portfolio is up 15%. The definition of 'risk' has changed i suppose. Emerging economies are much less riskier than is made to believe and the western economies have much more 'hidden' risks. My strategy from now on will be to invest for 'Growth' in emerging economies(India in my case) and to invest for dividends in NZ and Ozzie. I will see how that goes.

[voltage]

Certainly has been a bad year, now looking at opportunities to use gearing. Absolut-advance what blue chips would you recommend.

[peat]

It has been a hard year for me too as the market went up but this has all come right now (I trade the short side)
my forex trading has been getting better all time - still slow growth in the account balance but anything positive in forex is all good.
silver recovered heaps and thats good too though to be honest I dont expect it to stay that way so I've reduced a little.

While it wasnt that hard to quit my job and become a student it was hard to study again and the exams were a real shock in terms of difficulty - but I got my 3 of my 4 exam results today and I got good grades, so the plan is on track for my Dip Bus (Personal Financial Planning) this year.

[Logen Ninefingers]

What's gonna happen with the Dow tomorrow????? Arrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

[Dr_Who]

What's gonna happen with the Dow tomorrow????? Arrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!

Europe is positive. Just came back from a party and the Euro market is up. WOOT!

[Hoop]

What's gonna happen with the Dow tomorrow????? Arrrrrrrrgggggggghhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!
Down as predicted
9774 -96 -0.99% Was even for most of the session but crashed and bur'nt in the last hour. Now the DOW has a H&S breakout*** confirming the S&P500. Its the Americans turn now to suffer the Bear..

****EDIT: ERROR close inspection on another chart program (incrediblecharts) the closing day data shows NO BREAKOUT the closing day data breakout line is 9744 so the DOW closed sitting right on the line. As the S&P500 has now broken out well and truly a betting man would have his money on the DOW following the S&P500

[JBmurc]

This has been a hard year to add value to the portfolio, unless you have short positions. Anyone out there have stories they would like to share? Pls keep your BS stories to the minimal, cos this is not a fishing competition and the fish is not that "BIG" to prove your manhood.

My portfolio has been down this year, but overall including last year it is still with a healthy gain thanks to resources, but it has been a tough year. My hedging did help abit, but still hard yards.

yeah March to march yr 09-10 was the best I'd had for awhile the 10/11 not going so well need another IRN kind of growth to hit some of my shares to beat last years growth

[Dr_Who]

yeah March to march yr 09-10 was the best I'd had for awhile the 10/11 not going so well need another IRN kind of growth to hit some of my shares to beat last years growth

I hear you mate. Have a look at CXS, abit of a punt, but if they get FDA approval this stock can go back up to $1. All the test so far is good, just need to satisfy FDA. They have Europe and other parts of the world wrapped up. The specialised health sector are less affected in the downturn, esp drugs for cancer such as specialised leukemia.

Hey Hoop, what is H&S breakout? Pls explain. Cheers.

[Hoop]

I hear you mate. Have a look at CXS, abit of a punt, but if they get FDA approval this stock can go back up to $1. All the test so far is good, just need to satisfy FDA. They have Europe and other parts of the world wrapped up. The specialised health sector are less affected in the downturn, esp drugs for cancer such as specialised leukemia.

Hey Hoop, what is H&S breakout? Pls explain. Cheers.

Hi Doc
H&S stands for Head and shoulder pattern. The last part of a Top H&S pattern is the breakout stage which is nearly always downwards. It has a failure rate (a drop less than 5% from breakout of 4%) the other 96% of the time the drop from breakout is more than 5%..

The H&S pattern is very common and if it isn't in its very simple form it is often missed by most investors except for the chartists with experienced eyes. The outcome of the H&S pattern is the most relialabe of all chart patterns so when this pattern occurs and breaks out one should not be around in the market. I might be sounding like the Grim Reaper stalking the threads of ST at the moment but I have the odds on my side that bad news is going to get worse before it gets better. The future good news is that after the ultimate bottom following the H&S breakout, there is good chance of a +50% rise so investors who missed the first rally of 50% may get lucky and get another chance.

I posted a chart yesterday #522 on the Daily S&P500 Index tracker thread (http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7257-Daily-S-amp-P-500-INDEX-TRACKER/page35) showing the simple H&S pattern and its breakout and percent chances.

All TA investors should have the Thomas Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns which has 1012 pages of statistics on all chart happenings...but if you haven't got his book then go here to Thomas Bulkowski's website (http://thepatternsite.com/hst.html) where he has kindly given us a concise simple explanations of many chart patterns (Note on his website that Toms targets are out of date now, things have got a lot worse since the 21 June entry and at some stage on his free site he will revise his targets down accordingly.)

Don't assume that the forecasted drop on the S&P500 will be the same as NZX or All Ords because the chart patterns are different. e.g TA target for S&P500 is around 790/840 about another 20% drop where as the TA Target for the All Ords is 4000 predicting another 8% drop...this difference comes about because the All Ords has been dropping in a bear market cycle for a while now where as the S&P500 has just entered their bear cycle yesterday to the fanfare from the American media..

Please read my last post on this thread I had an error regarding the DOW breakout..I do't think it has yet.