STU Chart

[Phaedrus]

Steel and Tube is yet another good NZ stock that keeps pegging away year after year with very little mention on this forum. This is not a good trading stock, but is a steady long-term performer. There is a nice confirmed long-term trendline in place, and the chart shows a few of the many buy signals that were triggered by STU in 2001. The use of a long-term moving average such as the 300 day ema shown here adds another trend indicator able to provide useful confirmation of any trendline break sell signal. The trailing stop shown is based on the stocks Average True Range. This means that it is mediated by the stocks volatility, moving closer when prices are relatively stable and staying further away when prices are choppy. This means that it is more likely to give an exit signal sooner than a trailing stop that is based on a fixed percentage price fall. Current price action is well above all 3 indicators. Do you have an exit strategy?
The chart includes todays current price - a 2% rise on news of a profit upgrade. It would appear that the market had anticipated this to some extent at least.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/STU2001.gif

[ananda77]

Phaedrus, sorry for using your post for a question concerning the chart of ANZ.

Yesterday I had a look at the five-year chart found in yahoo/financial and according to this chart I gathered anz as a buy, based on slow stochastics, 200- and 20-day MA, and the shareprice bouncing of the long-term trendline. (I am a long-term holder of anz and want to buy some more).

This morning I looked at more recent charts (6-mth, 1-yr) and found that these charts are showing a very different picture. I would not buy this share based on these charts.

What would you do in this situation??

[Halebop]

I put these into an income portfolio I helped build for my father back around 2000. At the time we debated both STU and SKC places in the mix (SKC failed the cut, alas). I can only say STU surpassed both of our expectations. I might have a fundamental look at them and see how things are going.

[Placebo]

And pleased to see they have the good common sense to maintain their head office in Lower Hutt :D:D

[Phaedrus]

a77,
Here is a 3 year chart of ANZ. As you can see it is in an extended trading range and has gone sideways over this time. (Sideways is a nice word for 'nowhere')
If you are intent on buying more of this stock, most any oscillator will identify reasonable entry points - I have plotted the Relative Momentum Index here, along with its associated Buy signals. On this basis, right now would be a good time to buy.
I must confess that I have great difficulty understanding why you would want to throw more money at ANZ. The yield is reasonable but unremarkable and in any case there are plenty of other stocks with similar or better yields that are in steady uptrends. As a long-term holder of ANZ, your capital gain over the last 3 years has been zero. Why, specifically, do you want to put even more money into cold storage like this? If you were trading this stock, my attitude would be different - it is quite a suitable candidate for this.
Seems to me that you should buy more only if you genuinely believe that, right now, ANZ represents the best value and offers the most promising prospects of all the stocks in the entire NZ market. Is this what you think?
Don't buy more. Formulate a plan to get out. Dump the lot at the next RMI sell signal. If you are a long-term invester, you want to be holding stocks that are going up, not sideways.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/ANZ001.gif

[foodee]

quote:Phaedrus wrote
Do you have an exit strategy

My answer would have to be sort of. My bases for selling are quite simple:-
I do not sell a share unless I need the money.
I will sell if there are some basic technical reasons. Not being very good at TA and also lacking the tools I simple use the moving averages on the Access charting site. The 2 longest time mva available are 90 days and 180 days.
Any sudden negative news will make me act quite decisively eg PGG (when there was a news item about f&m, got back in when that proved to be not so - a small price to preserve capital).
I am posting this mainly in the hope you could make some suggestions to improve things.

cheers

[ananda77]

Hi Phaedrus,

Kindness to you, I am simply grateful for your help.

Points taken!

I will start looking at trading this stock.

Regards Ananda77

[Shamrock]

Hi Foodee,

The Access charts treat weekend days as trading days ie, they are plotted on their charts. As such, your moving averages are not as accurate as they should be.

You might like to have a look at what you can do on a site like bigcharts.com (java charts). For example, you can pick any length of moving average you need, either simple or exponential.

[foodee]

Shamrock
Thanks for the info. Will explore and certainly come up with more accurate data. Have to get my head around TA concepts which is influencing the markets more and more.
Cheers

[bull....]

The break through 4 dollars was probably a good place to have a trade if you dont like buy and hold.

[Jay]

Phaedrus, can you show me the formula for your trailing Stop.
Anyone else please feel free to comment.
I have tried in Metastock V8 Indicator Builder:

If(cum(1)=1,
{then} Close,
{else} If((C*1.1) <= PREV,
{then}(C*1.1),
{else} PREV));

This should be a 10% trailing stop.
All I seem to get is a straight line. What am I doing wrong?? [:I]

All ways appreciate your insight and comments. Thank you.

[Phaedrus]

Jay,
The formula for the Average True Range based trailing stop plotted on the STU chart is :-
HHV(C-(ATR(6)*22),600)
(The 22 here refers to the multiple applied to the ATR, use a smaller number to give a tighter trailing stop for less volatile stocks. The 600 refers to the number of days to look back, the 6 is the period of the ATR.)

The code for a trailing stop based on a price fall of fixed percentage from the previous peak, is :-
HHV(C,180)*.80
(This is for a 20% trailing stop, looking back 180 days for the highest high in that period. Use .90 instead of .80 if you want a 10% trailing stop, for example)

Either of these will give a simple trailing stop. There are better, more sophisticated, more complicated methods possible. Master these two first, though.

[Tinker]

Thank you Phaedrus, those formula were appreciated.

[Jay]

Thank you again Phaedrus, for those formula, much appreciated.

[Trader_100]

Phaedrus,

I continue to learn a lot from your posts. It's probably a bit of an exageration to say that I have "mastered" the average true range and trailing stop but I would certainly be interested in learning more about the more sophisticated, more complicated methods you mention.

Regards,

T100.

[Lawso]

There's been weakness in STU since it went ex a 15c div two weeks ago. From a high of 464 it's fallen to 435, including a 7c drop today. This has pushed the yield up to 12.69% while the PE is still reasonable at approx 13.6.

The higher interest regime and persistent talk of a construction slowdown may be spooking some investors. Others profit-taking? Any thoughts, anyone? Phaedrus, where are you?

Anyway, I've dived in to buy more at today's price and will probably do so again if the weakness persists.

PS. I wish ShareTrader had a smarter Search facility. When I asked it to search for STU I had to go through 9 pages before finding this thread. Every thread that contained words like "study" or "stuff" turned up. Same thing the other day when I was looking for NUF on the ASX forum and kept getting words like "maNUFacture". Why can't they give us the option to specify "all upper case" or "full word only"?
Moderator, are you listening?

Lawso did you not use search SUBJECT only

[CAM]

quote:Originally posted by ENIGMA

Lawso did you not use search SUBJECT only


can just about hear the "duh" and slapping of forehead from here :D

[Lawso]

Duh
Slap slap

[Stock Man]

Probably a little more weakness to come. Has really just completed a minor Head & Shoulders top.

[floyd]

Phaedrus, any chance on an update on the chart? stu seems to have been to a reasonable tight trading range over the 3-4 months, does this mean that the s/p is fully valued?

input from posters appreciated

[Phaedrus]

Floyd,
Here is an updated chart for you. It features a nice tidy confirmed trendline, a suitable moving average and a couple of Trailing Stops. STU remains in a steady long-term uptrend and is continuing to make new highs. I wouldn't know if STU is "fully valued" or not, but it is clear to me that market forces continue to drive this stock higher.I see no evidence of it topping out as yet, and do not see recent price action as either atypical or weak in any way.

I have held this stock for many years now, and would not even consider selling any so long as price action continues to remain above the trendline. A nice example of a steady uptrend and a chart that gives the lie to the charge that the use of TA inevitably leads to overtrading. Not so.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/STU3001.gif

[Steve]

P, Thanks for the chart & opinion

[floyd]

Phaedrus, thanx for the time and effort in updating the chart its much appreciated.

[Phaedrus]

Winston001,
Here is the updated STU chart you asked for. As you can see, the use of trendlines or either of the other 2 indicators plotted here would have seen you having sold out of STU, then buying back in again if you wanted to. As usually happens, the trendline break signals are the most timely. The chart includes todays current price of $5.05.

http://home.ripway.com/2003-11/39768/STU823001.gif

[Winston001]

Thankyou very much Phaedrus. Also thanks for finding the appropriate thread. Certainly a different picture to CAV. Now for some pondering.............. :D

[kiwigold]

Phaedrus could you update this chart please?

[limegreen]

=ugly.

A trader would currently be out on the trendline break. Most long term holders would have been out on the 300 day EMA and the bearish OBV. Breaching $4 should be the very, very last straw!

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v361/limegreenz/stu28nov05.gif

[kiwigold]

Thanks Limegreen,getting in at about 400 looks good. This company seems to be suffering from the general bearish economic outlook

[limegreen]

When I saw "last straw", I mean I think that STU looks *terrible* at 400, and would have even fewer redeeming features than it doesn't have at present. That said, the support at 400 might hold, but that is not my idea of an entry strategy, and if it falls below 400 that's a truly screaming sell.

450 would represent a somewhat reasonable entry point, but I think it would have to be over 500 for me to seriously consider purchase. I prefer "actually going up" to "cheap", any day of the weak.

[kiwigold]

cheers Limegreen ,appreciate your opinion, different strokes for different folks I guess ,I'll take a quick profit anyday.

[Lizard]

It's worth remembering that this stock can be very cyclical.

It's also worth remembering that cyclicals usually look cheap at the top of the cycle.

[limegreen]

quote:Originally posted by kiwigold
different strokes for different folks I guess

Oh absolutely. I just thought it was a little odd that you'd request a chart when it runs counter to your strategy. However, if you are after a quick profit, it is somewhat possible that it may rebound off 400 in the short term. If it doesn't, you'll be watching a quick loss, not a quick profit. Good luck!

[Halebop]

The contrarion in me can't resist a share at its lows. But I still only buy companies that look good value (this can be hard to guess with cyclical companies near the top of the cycle). Also, If I am doing some "bottom feeding" then from a charting point of view I prefer a company that is more clearly in a trading range than a downtrend. It gives me some further comfort that I am buying near the bottom of the range and not halfway down the slippery slope.

[Paper Tiger]

Don't follow this one particularly, but I would have thought that profits have reached their max and can be maintained while there is so much construction to be done.
Nice dividend yield.
I would not expect the share price to go up whilst interest rates do, and longer term surely the SP will go down?

[Lizard]

Hadn't looked at this one in a while. Not much action since PT's last post and has been coming off fairly quickly of late. Not yet time to buy, but will go back on the watchlist - could be an early beneficiary of the dairy industry money flow (and perhaps some world-cup related construction?).

[Deev8]

Steel & Tube interim results were released this morning.

Net profit after tax of $8.57million, down from $14.75 million in the first half last year. The result includes an after tax provision of $1.57 million for costs associated with the Hurricane Wire Products business restructuring which will be completed in the second half of the financial year.

A fully imputed interim dividend of 9 cents per share will be paid on 31st March.

Full text of the results announcement is here: Steel & Tube Holdings Limited Half -Year Results (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=160483)

[Viking]

STU is up almost 11% today~ anyone know why?
or did I miss something?

not complaining, actually quite happy (since I am a holder)~
but I must admit that I didn't see it coming at all~
Could anyone enlighten me please~ thank you~

[Lizard]

Takeover offer from OneSteel - but there doesn't seem to be details of offer form or amount in the NZX release. Hope we don't have to wait for the market to open in Australia to get the details!

[Lizard]

New notice - looks like $4.00 cash per share. Doesn't seem like a good deal to me.

[Hoop]

Takeover offer from OneSteel - but there doesn't seem to be details of offer form or amount in the NZX release. Hope we don't have to wait for the market to open in Australia to get the details!

Offer is $4.00 rather low I thought considering it was trading between $4.00 and $5.00 before the Bear Market phase.

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=2054869

[Lizard]

My most recent valuation was $4.52.

I just hate seeing these mid-tier listings disappear out of NZ ownership/listing as they seem to be becoming irreplaceable.

[Stranger_Danger]

A 33% premium is normally enough to get things done.

If the price is too low, then why hasn't everyone been betting the farm on stocks like this?

I see this as a good sign for the market, and would like to see a few more situations like this, especially on the ASX. It says a bit about where we've been - and, hopefully - where we are going.

(a) The offer is $4.00 a share, ie, a full 33% premium on Fridays price. A good takeover premium. However....

(b) I sold my Steel & Tube shares for $4.75 between 2005 and 2007. Therefore, todays generous price is still a lot less than the price between 2005 and 2007.

Two conclusions from this.

(a) The market really has been smashed. A lot of things are trading at close to 5 year lows. Being invested in Steel & Tube to lose 50% of your money then receive a "generous" takeover offer of some of your money back would NOT have been rational.

(b) Takeovers are often the sign of a bottom for this very reason - a suiter can announce a "generous" premium which tends to guarantee acceptance but still be able to pay what is historically a low price and add to EPS straight away.

A good sign for the market I reckon. To some extent even the big guys have been paralysed for the last 6 months. Once we get a few takeover attempts, we'll then likely get many more. From there, a bottom perhaps.

[Lizard]

If the price is too low, then why hasn't everyone been betting the farm on stocks like this?


Because the liquidity hasn't been there and spreads have been fairly wide?

[Stranger_Danger]

Disagree. I keep half an eye on STU and in my opinion, buying 50-100k anytime in the last 6 months would be easy, 100-500k would be easy with some patience and 500k-2mil would be doable but frustrating and slow. I doubt many ST'ers would be investing more than this in a single stock.

While I'm not in STU, I can't use liquidity as an excuse - if I'd wanted to be, I could of been.

[macduffy]

In hindsight, this was always going to happen - in fact buying up the minorities by first BHP and latterly OneSteel used to be accepted as an inevitability. Seems to have been forgotten about with more pressing problems in the market but makes a lot of sense for OneSteel to move at this time.
I hold a few STU and while not keen to sell - I share Lizard's concern at the hollowing out of the NZ market - my pick is that the bid will be successful.

[Hoop]

Disagree. I keep half an eye on STU and in my opinion, buying 50-100k anytime in the last 6 months would be easy, 100-500k would be easy with some patience and 500k-2mil would be doable but frustrating and slow. I doubt many ST'ers would be investing more than this in a single stock.

While I'm not in STU, I can't use liquidity as an excuse - if I'd wanted to be, I could of been.

You must remember the bear market is due to lack of available money to that certain market..in this case the equity market.
The lack of available money does not always mean there is isn't much money around ..it could mean that most of it is on the sidelines waiting..hence that waiting is the product of the decline in share prices to sometime well below fundamentals.

As I keep saying Bears can't count...BUT One Steel can count..

In take overs FA counts.. not TA.

One Steel looking for a bargain and it may get it's wish, as some Equity investors that did not exit out will be suffering now and will see this as an opportunity to bail out.

[Ekrub]

So Onesteel is out.....any predictions as to what happens to STU's SP
Monday morning?

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24510707-5005200,00.html

[Major von Tempsky]

It is in these situations of independent outside BIG EVENTS such as OneSteel withdrawing its bid and the meltdown of world financial markets that the total worthlessness of Phaedrus type charting becomes embarassingly exposed for all to see .....

[Stranger_Danger]

How so?

He would have been out of STU due to the downtrend. He would have missed the unexpected leap due to the takeover bid and will miss the carnage on Monday due to Onesteel not proceeding.

You don't have to be in every stock or make every available dollar.

I don't think TA could have helped anyone here, other than keep them out. TA isn't a crystal ball and couldn't possibly have predicted the takeover bid or the retraction. TA clearly has its limits - what has always impressed me about Phaedrus is he seems to remain utterly aware of that.

p.s I'm genuinely surprised by OneSteel not going ahead. What do they know *about the Steel & Tube business* that they didn't know when they announced the bid? Nothing, I'd wager.

It ain't just the little old ladies that are getting scared out there folks...

[macduffy]

I imagine that Onesteel are fairly sure they will be able to pick up STU a bit cheaper in due course. They won't be in any hurry - no-one else is able to beat them to it and they have been majority shareholder for a very long time!

Disc: Holding STU.

;)

[Stranger_Danger]

Yeah, thats why I fear for the STU price and, therefore, the holders. No one else can buy it and the people who *should* know the most just walked away. In a market where no one knows what anything is worth, it doesn't inspire confidence.

If the walking away had anything to do with rationality (I'm not convinced it did) the next question OneSteel should ask is this : if we don't want to own the other half, why do we want to own the first half?

I find it a good procedure to look at my "holds" and ask why they aren't "buys" - doing so frequently identifies a "sell" (or leads to averaging up on a winner).

Perhaps OneSteel should try it.

[BRICKS]

The investors who bought yesterday or because of the T/O thinking it was on have been BONED..

[macduffy]

If the walking away had anything to do with rationality (I'm not convinced it did) the next question OneSteel should ask is this : if we don't want to own the other half, why do we want to own the first half? QUOTE.

I'm sure OneSteel want to own the other half. They just see an opportunity to get it at a lower price! Nothing sinister or unnatural about that.

;)

[macduffy]

The investors who bought yesterday or because of the T/O thinking it was on have been BONED..

They should also have been aware that the takeover had an "out" clause for OneSteel if the index dropped below a certain figure. It's a risk you take if you buy into a takeover situation, as I'm pretty certain those who bought (mostly) would have known.

[Lizard]

From the Offer Document (http://www.nzx.com/documents/attachment/559/STU%20-%20Takeover%20Notice.pdf):


That during the period from the Notice Date until the date by which the Offer must become unconditional as referred to in clause 5.6, the level of the NZX50 index does not close below 2,710 on any three consecutive trading days.

The interesting point here is that a takeover offer can be announced as "intention to make..." and then still be pulled without breach of clauses and without an alternative reason being provided. (How does the NZX protect from potential for manipulation?)

Claiming the world has changed dramatically in 2 months seems to be an oddly myopic call given the downturn and credit crunch had been brewing for a while. Since there was already an out clause protecting them from market volatility the suspicion could be that the real reason might be somewhat different to that given i.e. that it may not be proving as easy to fund as initially expected "from existing cashflow and banking facilities"?

[Sideshow Bob]

The investors who bought yesterday or because of the T/O thinking it was on have been BONED..

Is that a technical term BRICKS?

[Hoop]

From the Offer Document (http://www.nzx.com/documents/attachment/559/STU%20-%20Takeover%20Notice.pdf):



The interesting point here is that a takeover offer can be announced as "intention to make..." and then still be pulled without breach of clauses and without an alternative reason being provided. (How does the NZX protect from potential for manipulation?)

Claiming the world has changed dramatically in 2 months seems to be an oddly myopic call given the downturn and credit crunch had been brewing for a while. Since there was already an out clause protecting them from market volatility the suspicion could be that the real reason might be somewhat different to that given i.e. that it may not be proving as easy to fund as initially expected "from existing cashflow and banking facilities"?




With rumours that NZ economy could be more severely hurt by the Global crisis than orginally thought, the unusually low profile stance taken by the Treasury, and the RB, and the Government attentions and energies focused elsewhere as a general Election nears.....This is enough to give any Overseas Companies operating in NZ at this time the "willies"......

..Reading between the lines with this piece of quote from One Steel's announcement tells us all "..... Market volatility has increased and the outlook for Steel & Tube is more uncertain as a consequence of its exposure to the New Zealand economy......"

When the incoming Government finally gets back to doing its job (running the Country) there may be a flood of bad news waiting, and it must be bad enough for One Steel to walk away and be willing to accept liablity for costs.

Anyway from this kiwi's point of view it reinforces the notion that Ozzies are wimps :D

Disc: STU... and my grandfather was born in Ballarat

[Hoop]

400,000 shares crossed over the floor at 9.10am before opening at $3.00 down 60c.

FORECAST: STU: OneSteel not proceeding with Takeover of Steel & Tube 09:20a.m. STU 20/10/2008 FORECAST REL: 0920 HRS Steel & Tube Holdings Limited FORECAST: STU: OneSteel not proceeding with Takeover of Steel & Tube The Company wishes to advise that it received notification late on Friday from Onesteel Limited that it had decided not to proceed with its intent to make an offer for the shares in Steel & Tube Holdings Limited that it does not already own. Given Onesteel's decision, the current global financial crisis and, even though it is not Company policy, the Directors have decided to advise that the unaudited profit in the first quarter shows an increase of approximately $8.1 million tax paid when compared with the same period last year. Although the momentum of earnings is likely to continue for the next month or so, albeit at a lower pace, there is considerable uncertainty for the second half of the year. End CA:00171649 For:STU Type:FORECAST Time:2008-10-20:09:20:18

[Hoop]

Half year Result is out..its a game of two halves

...good news is they made a large % increase in profit to that of last year:)...bad news is that that is all the good news we will get...future profit warning is issued within the report...tougher times ahead.:(

disc have STU.

HALFYR: STU: STU - Steel & Tube 2009 Half Year Results 11:30a.m. STU 12/02/2009 HALFYR REL: 1130 HRS Steel & Tube Holdings Limited HALFYR: STU: STU - Steel & Tube 2009 Half Year Results Consolidated Operating Results for the Half Year to 31 December 2008 Reporting Period: 31 December 2008 Previous Reporting Period: 31 December 2007 Current period: $000; %Up/Down Revenue from ordinary activities: 273,787; +11% Net profit after tax attributable to security holders: 20,794; +143% Current period; Previous period Earnings per share: 23.6 cps; 9.7 cps Net tangible assets per share: $1.52; $1.33 Interim dividend: 10 cps Imputation credit: 4.93 cps Supplementary dividend: 1.76 cps Record date: 13 March 2009 Payment date: 30 March 2009 The result for the six months ended 31 December 2008 was an unaudited after tax profit of $20.79 million. This compares with the $8.56 million recorded in the previous corresponding period in 2007. This result includes an after tax provision for impairment of trade receivables of $3.18 million. The Directors have declared an interim dividend of 10 cents per share which will be paid on 30 March 2009 to holders of fully paid ordinary shares registered at 13 March 2009. The amount payable is $8.82 million. This dividend carries full imputation credits and a supplementary dividend of 1.76 cents will be paid to non-resident shareholders. News Release The Company announced a first half trading result of $20.79 million after tax. This is an increase of $12.23 million when compared with the same period last year and consistent with the 1st quarter earnings announced in October 2008. Sales increased by $28.23 million to $273.79 million due to the effect of higher steel prices. A provision for impairment of trade receivables totalling $3.18 million after tax was made reflecting the difficult trading conditions being encountered. In the same period last year a restructuring provision of $1.57 million after tax was made for the Hurricane Wire business. The Company also announced that a fully imputed interim dividend of 10 cents per share will be paid on 30 March 2009. Market Conditions In commenting on the Company's operations for the half year the Chief Executive Officer Mr Nick Calavrias said, The Company had variable market conditions to contend with during the period under review. Construction activity over all was down led by a substantial drop in housing starts. Commercial construction activity however did not suffer to the same extent. The strong demand for our goods and services from the manufacturing sector that we saw in the last quarter of our 2008 year continued into the early part of the new financial year. However, we have experienced a noticeable slowdown since November. Demand from the rural communities however remained strong through out. Performance The Distribution business comprising Steel Distribution, Stainless Steel, Fastening Systems, Piping Systems and Industrial Products on aggregate increased sales revenue by about 13% compared with the previous period with results substantially ahead of the same period last year. Although the value of commercial building activity and infrastructure projects was ahead of the same period last year, the volume of building products consumed by this sector was lower once the effect of price increases was taken into consideration. Volume to the manufacturing sector also reduced as the year progressed although this was partially offset by strong demand from the rural areas. Global demand for steel in the early part of the year led to substantial shortages with most products being on allocation by our suppliers. The division's response to these trading conditions was to withdraw from high volume low margin indent business and to be more focused on the higher margin mix of products. The Manufacturing business comprising Roofing Products, Reinforcing Fabrication and Hurricane Wire, increased its revenue by 11%. The Reinforcing operation posted improved results due to a favorable mix of commercial contracts and strong demand from infrastructure projects. Roofing was able to replace lost revenue from the residential housing sector with higher sales to the light commercial sector and farm shed market. The Hurricane Wire business showed significant improvement as a result of the restructuring that took place in early 2008. Inventory Supply volatility for replacement inventory was encountered for most of calendar 2008. In the first half the combination of shortages and higher input costs for steel making, such as iron ore, coal and scrap metal forced the price of steel products up. However the supply position improved rapidly in September at the same time as demand for steel began to stall, causing a substantial build up of inventory on hand with levels increasing by $46 million in this reporting period. We expect this to be reduced substantially by April and to be at normal operating levels by year end. Outlook There is considerable uncertainty surrounding the extent and timing of the effect of the global economic slowdown on the economy of New Zealand. The domestic economy has been in recessionary conditions for all of 2008 with the expectation that this will continue for most if not all of calendar 2009. Dairy farmers' incomes for the 2009 year in aggregate are expected to fall by around $3 billion compared with last year as the price of milk powder retreats from its peak in July 2008. Construction activity is expected to decline further during 2009. However with the Official Cash Rate now at the historic low of 3.5% pa, the construction industry could recover more quickly than previously anticipated. Although exporters will be assisted by the substantial fall of the New Zealand currency, volumes are likely to be subdued until an upturn in global demand returns. International steel prices and exchange rate volatility have had significant impact on the Company's financial results over recent years. Global demand has stalled causing steel producers world wide to cut capacity to match current demand. Although global prices for steel are now in retreat in US dollar terms, the impact will be softened due to the substantial depreciation of the New Zealand dollar. The government's current action to counter some of the effects of the global financial crises by stimulating the domestic economy through tax cuts and an increase in infrastructure spending is expected to lessen the impact of the global recession. In summary, we expect market conditions in the short term to be as tough as we have seen for a very long time with a good deal of uncertainty, and the deteriorating trading conditions are expected to reduce our second half result substantially. For further information, please contact Mr Nick Calavrias, Chief Executive Officer, Steel & Tube Holdings Limited on (04)570-5001. End CA:00176012 For:STU Type:HALFYR Time:2009-02-12:11:30:34

[macduffy]

A rather better than expected result, particularly considering the doom and gloom preached at last November's AGM. I guess it would be dangerous to call their bluff and buy a few more but I can't remember a time when STU didn't say that they expect tough trading conditions.

Disc: Holding.

[Lawso]

Bad news. STU's 1st 1/2 result down 85% on a year earlier to a mere $3.17m. What's worse (for me), the int. div due in March will be cut from 10c to 3.5c.
I've held STU as a key yield stock for many years, having traded it a few years ago in the 400s to 500s range. Currently its trading around 270.
STU may well recover in a year or two but because the income is important to me I've reduced my holding by half and am looking elsewhere for a better yield plus reasonable growth prospects.

[Bobcat.]

This bad news for STU will not help FBU which is close to announcing its half year result. Whereas FBU is a growth stock with not bad divi, STU is neither. I prefer to trade of FBU off its lows and peaks, and suspect it may drop further just prior to its result, which I believe is released early next week. Last year it was released on the 12th. Monday may be the day for an entry point (?).

[percy]

Bad news. STU's 1st 1/2 result down 85% on a year earlier to a mere $3.17m. What's worse (for me), the int. div due in March will be cut from 10c to 3.5c.
I've held STU as a key yield stock for many years, having traded it a few years ago in the 400s to 500s range. Currently its trading around 270.
STU may well recover in a year or two but because the income is important to me I've reduced my holding by half and am looking elsewhere for a better yield plus reasonable growth prospects.

On 26th PGC will announce half year result.Should they pay a divie it may pay to have alook.

[Vtrader]

newbie to all of this, read much more than I write... however as a day job we use plenty of stainless steel. All stainless steel industry v e r y q u i e t and nothing significant until later 2010. Our workshop is right behind STU and not much movement of black steel either. I would be liking a turnaround soon, but all indicators are suggesting a bit later... V.

[percy]

newbie to all of this, read much more than I write... however as a day job we use plenty of stainless steel. All stainless steel industry v e r y q u i e t and nothing significant until later 2010. Our workshop is right behind STU and not much movement of black steel either. I would be liking a turnaround soon, but all indicators are suggesting a bit later... V.

Look forward to future post from you saying you are too busy at work!!!Then we will be into STU.Nice to have a bit of inside info..

[Vtrader]

and if I said something nice... would the sp go up 7%? V.

[percy]

and if I said something nice... would the sp go up 7%? V.

At least!!! inside information works. Retail investors who brought pumpkin patch.they brought clothes there for their grandkids so knew they were good,while brokers prefered feltex,s proven record and divie.If and when you see stu get busy you know you are ahead of the market.Ring me direct on
0800insideimfo.look forward to your call,all lines are open and my operators are waiting for your call!!!!!!!!

[macduffy]

Caught a short item on Business Spectator's "Wheels and Deals " to the effect that STU don't expect another takeover bid from majority shareholder OneSteel.

But we'd expect them to say that until it actually happened, wouldn't we?

;)

[Dr_Who]

With OST holding 51%, they are in no hurry to take full control? It is also hard for someone else to make as bid unless OST is a seller.

[percy]

hi razor here it is.

[Phaedrus]

An "STU Chart" thread with no chart since 2005? Surely not! Here is a belated update - I guess I lost all interest at the big red arrow.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/STU225.gif

TA got you into this stock early, kept you in for 4 years and got you out just 19 days after the peak. While there have been many trading opportunities over the 5 years since then, conservative TA users would not yet have bought back into STU. (and some say that the use of TA leads to overtrading!)

For those that really do want "in", buying at just above the 8 year support level of $2.50 would be a logical entry point - right now, for example! For myself, I do not like the look of the falling OBV, complete with confirmed trendline.

See how all longterm indicators used to monitor the big uptrend fired off very timely nearly simultaneous Sell signals. See how they have been quite useless ever since. Those wanting to exploit the current trading range would use an entirely different set of indicators.

It is interesting how differently some people view such a chart. For me, this is a textbook example of TA working to absolute perfection, doing all that could ever be expected of it. MvT disagrees strongly.....


.... the total worthlessness of Phaedrus type charting becomes embarassingly exposed for all to see .....

[peat]

i made the comment obliquely in another thread that it looks like a descending triangle that had broken (well it may not have actually broken yet.... )
But if 2.50 breaks target would be 1.25 !

[Hoop]

wrote this post last night and saved it as a draft..edited it today

I can't include a chart as I am relegated to below dial up speed (10-50kb/s) for the rest of the month and bugger all works as I'm timed out everywhere including ST.

....anyway... Find a chart of STU (edit:use Phaedrus chart) and notice the beautifully symmetrically formed Head and shoulder pattern commencing at the 250c (248c) support line starting on 23 April 2009 and ending again at 250c recently on the 15 February 2010 Actually the pattern is made up of 2 shoulders and necks going up to the Head testing the 350c resistance line then forming identical 2 necks and shoulders coming back down.

H&S patterns are very reliable (and so was this one... a textbook example). The pattern would've kept you out of those two sucker rallies (Spring and Xmas 2009) and enabled you to invest in the bull market rally elsewhere.

It seems this pattern is now completed.




Disc: have no STU shares.

[Deev8]

notice the beautifully symmetrically formed Head and shoulder pattern commencing at the 250c (248c) support line starting on 23 April 2009 and ending again at 250c recently on the 15 February 2010 ... The pattern would've kept you out of those two sucker rallies (Spring and Xmas 2009)
There must be something that I am missing in this example - how does the pattern which isn't complete until a few days ago (15 February 2010) keep you out of two rallies that occured several months before that. I appreciate that you could assume that a head and shoulder pattern was being formed some time before it was complete, possibly several weeks before 15 February looking at the chart. But in Spring 2009 it looks like we were only half way through what eventually turned out to be a head and shoulder pattern.

[RazorX]

hi razor here it is.

Hey Percy, thanks you are a champ. lol Looks like a bit of interest has been perked now.

Phaedrus your chart is quite helpful at seeing where things are at. One could have been caught though with the late 2008 break above the TA and also the Mid to late 2009 break?

[Yankiwi]

For those that really do want "in", buying at just above the 8 year support level of $2.50 would be a logical entry point - right now, for example! For myself, I do not like the look of the falling OBV, complete with confirmed trendline.


Thanks Mr P,

I vividly remember you doing a STU chart for me maybe 9 months ago or so, but it seems to have vanished!

Luckily for me, I still have a mental image of it stuck in my brain cells somewhere. Those memories tipped the scale for me and I bought back in to STU today with a smallish parcel. Just after the purchase I quickly added my stop loss order not to far below the magic $2.50 level!

Fingers crossed that the stop loss gets swaped to a trailing stop before triggering. :)

[Yankiwi]

Something's very fishy here!

Why is there exactly 1 year between the following two posts on the STU thread? :confused:

Surely a bunch of data has gone missing between them!


Message #60 12-02-2009 01:16 PM


A rather better than expected result, particularly considering the doom and gloom preached at last November's AGM. I guess it would be dangerous to call their bluff and buy a few more but I can't remember a time when STU didn't say that they expect tough trading conditions.

Disc: Holding.
Message #61 11-02-2010 02:22 PM

Bad news. STU's 1st 1/2 result down 85% on a year earlier to a mere $3.17m. What's worse (for me), the int. div due in March will be cut from 10c to 3.5c.
I've held STU as a key yield stock for many years, having traded it a few years ago in the 400s to 500s range. Currently its trading around 270.
STU may well recover in a year or two but because the income is important to me I've reduced my holding by half and am looking elsewhere for a better yield plus reasonable growth prospects.