MLA Medical Austaralia

[h2so4]

Picked up from shasta's stock pics...


Originally Posted by shasta
LA had a stellar run today, opening up from 1.3c, hitting 5.5c at one stage & closed at 3.4c on 57m - yet its still only a $13m market cap

MLA vision $50m company by 2012.

Management, infrastructure and margins in place.

At no growth .028 is a fair price, at expected growth I think something north of 10c.

I have pegged it at .08

[shasta]

Picked up from shasta's stock pics...



MLA vision $50m company by 2012.

Management, infrastructure and margins in place.

At no growth .028 is a fair price, at expected growth I think something north of 10c.

I have pegged it at .08

I expect MLA to continue to grow with more contract wins during 2011, due to low liquidity & small market cap, it will likely spike hard on news & drop off in between.

With them now moving into profitablity (& have been the last few months) each new contract win is essentially a profit upgrade.

I have a few healthcare plays on close watch, in case MLA runs hard before i join in, anything under 5c will look good come end of year

[h2so4]

So far so good.:)

MLA delivers 18% increase in half year revenue to $4.6 mill

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110125/pdf/01144097.pdf

[shasta]

So far so good.:)

MLA delivers 18% increase in half year revenue to $4.6 mill

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20110125/pdf/01144097.pdf

MLA - Update

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=624645

The turnaround story is getting better & yet still a small cap

Current SP 3.6c (MLA started 2011 at 1.3c)

[shasta]

MLA - Update

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=624645

The turnaround story is getting better & yet still a small cap

Current SP 3.6c (MLA started 2011 at 1.3c)

MLA - MLA secures new distribution agreement with blood processing company Haemonetics

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=629221

A mere 25k shares traded today, but more revenue for MLA & looks like theres more to come ;)

[shasta]

MLA - MLA secures new supply agreement with Healthscope

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=630113

• Initial two-year agreement to supply IV consumables
• MLA will supply almost 100 Healthscope private hospitals and medical centres
• MLA’s first agreement with Healthscope – expected to become a top five
customer
• Year to date MLA has traded profitably every month
• Pursuing additional supply contracts and OEM agreements

Should keep MLA pushing along, pity i only have it in the comp & dont own any :(

[buns]

I got some of these when you published your healthcare list - again, thanks heaps for that.

Love this stock, such a safe easy to understand micro cap that will soon be picked up by the insto's. Unlike some of the other smaller healthcare stocks, this one has its capex behind it and a stronger BS.

Another update that should have been posted here was directors buying on market not long ago.

[buns]

Some sort of forecast would be nice - 100 clinics! I'm thinking this is a substantial deal

[buns]

This is quick becoming one of my favourite companies.

I’ve been talking a bit with the company CEO Mark Donnison.

He is one of those guys you instantly like, and able to trust. A straight shooter, who truly has shareholders coming first.

Now MLA is well on the path to growth and earnings stability Mark is taking the story to brokers with a full on investor road show next month, and some more in June.

This story will communicate their strong YTD results (we will see this in the next quarterly). These obviously don’t include any of the benefits from the recent announcements.

Mark said they are targeting around 20% growth YOY (I never checked if this was EBITDA or Net income) from current contracts, add on additional OEM agreements and you are looking pretty.

A mix of Dividends and acquisitions are a key part of the longer term strategy.

[Entrep]

My order on MLA got hit today. Loving the latest announcements, unsure why market hasn't woken up to it yet. Anyway figured it is worth a punt - my non-resource stocks have been the ones doing the best of late anyway.

[buns]

Quarterly came out the other day. Good, not great reading.

In the HY announcment they said watch out for a big 2nd half as medivet kicks in.

It did not happen in that quarter as revenue dropped 400k (2.4m to 2m) and costs stayed flat.

Net cash flow for the quarter was up on previous ones as they paid down less debt than usual. Capex was also down. This should become standard from here on out, however we need to see that revenue build for MLA to re rate.

So everything is pointing towards a huge Q4 to meet the 2nd half guidance.

[shasta]

Quarterly came out the other day. Good, not great reading.

In the HY announcment they said watch out for a big 2nd half as medivet kicks in.

It did not happen in that quarter as revenue dropped 400k (2.4m to 2m) and costs stayed flat.

Net cash flow for the quarter was up on previous ones as they paid down less debt than usual. Capex was also down. This should become standard from here on out, however we need to see that revenue build for MLA to re rate.

So everything is pointing towards a huge Q4 to meet the 2nd half guidance.

Was that 2nd half of the tax year, or calendar year?

Was pleased to see they are now covering operating costs, & each quarter from now on should be cash positive/profitable (excl timing differences/abnormal costs)

As i've mentioned before any new OEM contact wins are essentially "profit upgrades"

[buns]

I can't remember in what announcment, but MLA said it has been EBITDA positive every month since December. A good sign they have things under control and the underlying operation structure is pretty set.

"Mr. Donnison said MLA is well placed for growth for the remainder of FY2011 with revenue and earnings weighted to the second half of the year, due primarily to the contribution of the recently secured OEM agreements and revenue from new markets."

The context is around FY11, hence I'm pretty sure he is talking about Jan - June. Still, I really would have expected revenues to be well up (instead of 20% down) as Medivet was suppose to be ramping up from December, and both the Terumo and Fresenius Kabi OEM's were suppose to be contributing...

[mamos]

Apparently the Jan-March quarter is seasonally weak.


I can't remember in what announcment, but MLA said it has been EBITDA positive every month since December. A good sign they have things under control and the underlying operation structure is pretty set.

"Mr. Donnison said MLA is well placed for growth for the remainder of FY2011 with revenue and earnings weighted to the second half of the year, due primarily to the contribution of the recently secured OEM agreements and revenue from new markets."

The context is around FY11, hence I'm pretty sure he is talking about Jan - June. Still, I really would have expected revenues to be well up (instead of 20% down) as Medivet was suppose to be ramping up from December, and both the Terumo and Fresenius Kabi OEM's were suppose to be contributing...

[buns]

I've been put off of late as MLA got a bit ahead of its self. Thankfully I reaslised this before the people today..

100k plus sold today taking us to 31c (40 just a week ago) and sell another order of 1 million at 31c.

Not much depth here, so if this selling does happen, be ready to pounce as MLA is great value in the mid 20's.

Q4 will be a big one.

[Entrep]

2.1m sell order in at 3.1c - not going anywhere for a while...

[buns]

Interesting sell off.

The same has happened to some other small cap healthcare's.

Out of the lot, MLA bolted off a tad to far in my books. I only found this out after running another level of detailed analysis, and was ever so close to selling my lot at .39c, however just missed and now I'm still holding and in the red.

This isn't a short termer, this will recover and some. Q4 will be massive from all reports. And I'm told FY12 will be 20% growth on FY11, with most of this revenue coming from secure contracts. This excludes whatever they do with all this new FCF , $1m+ from options, upside from medivac growing some more. Also unlike other small cap's this one has a fully developed supply chain ready to tackle a worldwide market, unlike others which can be restricted to a single state of Australia.

I think the late .20's provides a great entry point, with fair value sitting just over .30

Research report out today even states fair value is .59c!

[shasta]

MLA - Research report

http://www.medaust.com/irm/Company/ShowPage.aspx?CPID=1102&EID=14071631

[Entrep]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110511/pdf/41yl86570rpp37.pdf

Agreement with UNICEF

[buns]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20110511/pdf/41yl86570rpp37.pdf

Agreement with UNICEF

That was quick? You signing in first thing to check whether that huge sell order has gone as well?

Anyhow - a very good chunk of business for MLA.

The revenue is secondary to the exposure they gain from this. UNICEFF are across 200 countries, this agreement is only for needle cutters in India. But its a foot in the door for bigger things.

[Entrep]

Nope - big sell order still there!

[Entrep]

Nope - big sell order still there!

Gone now - must have woken up late

[shasta]

Gone now - must have woken up late

MLA - SUPPLY AGREEMENT SECURED FOR ANALYTICA PRODUCT WITH NEW SOUTH WALES AMBULANCE SERVICE

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=ALT&E=ASX&N=354816

More contracts wins & MLA closes @ 3.4c on small volume

[shasta]

MLA - MLA Secures Master Distributorship for MediVet in United Kingdom

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=639877

• Exclusive Master Distributorship for secured for England, Wales, Scotland, and Ireland
• Will be operated by MLA’s 100% owned business in London
• MLA now has both OEM and distribution agreements in place with MediVet
• UK Business manager experienced and well connected in animal healthcare market
• Expected to be a major growth platform for MLA outside of Australia
• MLA positioned for growth in FY2012


When this info spreads thru the market it should stop the recent share price weakness

[h2so4]

MLA - MLA Secures Master Distributorship for MediVet in United Kingdom

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=639877

• Exclusive Master Distributorship for secured for England, Wales, Scotland, and Ireland
• Will be operated by MLA’s 100% owned business in London
• MLA now has both OEM and distribution agreements in place with MediVet
• UK Business manager experienced and well connected in animal healthcare market
• Expected to be a major growth platform for MLA outside of Australia
• MLA positioned for growth in FY2012


When this info spreads thru the market it should stop the recent share price weakness

I'm hoping this market might pay for some growth but maybe that's asking too much.:laugh:

[shasta]

MLA - SUPPLY AGREEMENT SECURED FOR ANALYTICA

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=640004

Another partnership this time with ALT

[steve fleming]

I’ve had a good look at the quarterly cash flow report today, and MLA should report a pretty reasonable profit.

For a growing manufacturing company, you would expect to see some degree of discrepancy between EBITDA and cash flows, as working capital increases.

For H1 FY11, MLA reported EBITDA of $225k but actually recorded negative operating cash flows of $507k.

So far, in Q3 and Q4, MLA has reported negative operating cash flows of -57k (Q3) + 31k (Q4) = -26k ( a pretty large turnaround from -507k for H1). (As a check -26k (H2) plus – 507k (H1) gives you the -533k total negative operating cash flows for FY11 as reported today). Therefore EBITDA for H2 is likely to be significant – maybe around $500k.

Bear in mind debtor terms are EOM + 30, so any billing in May 2011 and June 2011 will not have been collected yet. Assuming debtor days are around 60, there is a fair possibility that some of April sales have also not been collected yet. On the basis that a lot of the new contracts have been back ended into Q4 FY11, therefore, potentially there is a large discrepancy between sales booked and the value of cash receipts as reported today.

Milestone, in their research report in May, forecast FY11 sales of $9.9m – this is maybe a little optimistic, but something around $9.5m should be achievable and could potentially generate, at a 7.5% margin, an EBITDA of around $700k / $750k (being $225k (H1 actual) plus $500k (H2 estimate)) which would be a very commendable result, and certainly set a strong foundation for FY12.

I calculate EV of MLA to be under $10m now ($9.9m - after conversion of options), which should price MLA on a single digit FY12 EBITDA multiple, which I am comfortable with given the rate at which they are generating new supply contracts and the obvious revenue and margin upside. Therefore, I have taken the opportunity generated by the recent option conversion forced sell down to significantly increase my MLA holdings, including some buys today at 2.3c.

Am looking forward to the FY11 results.

My FY11 ests:
Sales - $9.5m
EBITDA - $725k
NPBT - $450k

[shasta]

I’ve had a good look at the quarterly cash flow report today, and MLA should report a pretty reasonable profit.

For a growing manufacturing company, you would expect to see some degree of discrepancy between EBITDA and cash flows, as working capital increases.

For H1 FY11, MLA reported EBITDA of $225k but actually recorded negative operating cash flows of $507k.

So far, in Q3 and Q4, MLA has reported negative operating cash flows of -57k (Q3) + 31k (Q4) = -26k ( a pretty large turnaround from -507k for H1). (As a check -26k (H2) plus – 507k (H1) gives you the -533k total negative operating cash flows for FY11 as reported today). Therefore EBITDA for H2 is likely to be significant – maybe around $500k.

Bear in mind debtor terms are EOM + 30, so any billing in May 2011 and June 2011 will not have been collected yet. Assuming debtor days are around 60, there is a fair possibility that some of April sales have also not been collected yet. On the basis that a lot of the new contracts have been back ended into Q4 FY11, therefore, potentially there is a large discrepancy between sales booked and the value of cash receipts as reported today.

Milestone, in their research report in May, forecast FY11 sales of $9.9m – this is maybe a little optimistic, but something around $9.5m should be achievable and could potentially generate, at a 7.5% margin, an EBITDA of around $700k / $750k (being $225k (H1 actual) plus $500k (H2 estimate)) which would be a very commendable result, and certainly set a strong foundation for FY12.

I calculate EV of MLA to be under $10m now ($9.9m - after conversion of options), which should price MLA on a single digit FY12 EBITDA multiple, which I am comfortable with given the rate at which they are generating new supply contracts and the obvious revenue and margin upside. Therefore, I have taken the opportunity generated by the recent option conversion forced sell down to significantly increase my MLA holdings, including some buys today at 2.3c.

Am looking forward to the FY11 results.

My FY11 ests:
Sales - $9.5m
EBITDA - $725k
NPBT - $450k

Great buying, 2.3c for a company that has won more contracts & slipped back from 3c +

5c before the end of the year isnt out of the question

[h2so4]

Nice analysis Steve.

I'm tempted to do the same but I would like to see more evidence of new sales.

Think I'll wait until the annual report is out.

[h2so4]

:)Well they have just announced that they have a further $850k pending in customer receipts.

Double down pending.

[Lizard]

Is that a direct comparison with the $1.08m of current receivables at HY?

[h2so4]

hmm...not sure...

What do you think Liz?

[h2so4]

:)Well they have just announced that they have a further $850k pending in customer receipts.

Double down pending.

Second thoughts I think I'll wait for the annual report.

I think revenue is going to be around $8.6m.

[Lizard]

I wasn't particularly meaning to put you off! It was a genuine question as seemed odd to mention customer receipts unless they were exceptional.

I don't own MLA, but am watching with interest. My reading of MLA would be about $330k NPAT for FY, so would want to see some more obvious signs of growth. Prefer some of my other micro-caps for now (LBL, SNL, PEH, HIT), but suspect Steve has more clues on management and shareholder spread/quality than I do!

[h2so4]

No I'm glad you mentioned it as I didn't consider last years receivables.

In this market I am very cautious of overpaying for growth.

Thanks for your reply Liz.

[biology12]

hey guys,
just a newbie question, thoughts on the depth?

whats the significance of the 1500000 order with the depth?
i really like this stock from a person with little experience, but just unshore when to pounce.

cheers

[evilroyrule]

hey guys,
just a newbie question, thoughts on the depth?

whats the significance of the 1500000 order with the depth?
i really like this stock from a person with little experience, but just unshore when to pounce.

cheers

i think you will find the buy depth of 1.5 million is two quite handsome people taking a punt on the steve f factor. one called percy. ha ha these are lazy investors who do no leg work and just follow brains around.

toot toot
percy, do you own every single stock on both the asx/nzx?
where is lorraina? has she been unwell?:t_down:

[percy]

i think you will find the buy depth of 1.5 million is two quite handsome people taking a punt on the steve f factor. one called percy. ha ha these are lazy investors who do no leg work and just follow brains around.

toot toot
percy, do you own every single stock on both the asx/nzx?
where is lorraina? has she been unwell?:t_down:

evilroyrule.MLA will be a winner because I don't own any.Been tempted but I lost money in a company Hartman the chairman was chairman of a few years ago.Have it on watch list,but I have CAJO,ILF, PGC,and quiet a few PGCOA in Aussie and ABA,EBO,RYM and VHP in NZ so have a lot in medical/health/retirement field.
Lorraina should be out on weekend leave soon.Bit of a long story,her being put away for being in the RED zone.But as she asked the judge"where is a young professional woman to ply her trade.?"

[steve fleming]

but suspect Steve has more clues on management and shareholder spread/quality than I do!

Not too much more Liz!....However, I do know that Lang Walker (who recently underwrote the MLA option issue and has become a top 10 shareholder) and his sailing buddy, Victor Hoog Antink (MLA’s 3rd largest shareholder, and CEO of DXS – Dexus Property Trust) don’t easily part with their money.

Lang Walker’s recent investment is an interesting development, and will greatly assist MLA in terms of credibility / shareholder marketing.

Article on Lang Walker from the paper on the weekend:

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/executive-lifestyle/building-blocks-of-an-empire/story-fn6njxlr-1226099892756

[Xerof]

Lorraina? I heard she was last seen in the Rocks area in Sydney with a guy called Gavin Bennett........whose last known address was Sir William Pickering Drive.....there was a very nice piccy of them in last weeks NBR I believe......

Some wit came out with the observation that the snow in Christchurch today was the 'icing on the quake' Now that's class......

[h2so4]

Second thoughts I think I'll wait for the annual report.

I think revenue is going to be around $8.6m.

$.1m out.

Dumped out today after that result.

On the bright side MLA turnover is up.

[steve fleming]

$.1m out.

Dumped out today after that result.

On the bright side MLA turnover is up.

Yes very disappointing result.

Gross margin %'s down and the profit Management talked up never happened.

Big question marks here now re mananagement's credibility and ability to deliver,

[shasta]

Yes very disappointing result.

Gross margin %'s down and the profit Management talked up never happened.

Big question marks here now re mananagement's credibility and ability to deliver,

MLA - MLA secures new distribution agreement with Smith & Nephew

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=645318

Im bit more bullish than you then Steve, these plays simply cannot expect to "grow & maintain" margins like the bigger players, especially when they are turning things around back into profitability/positive cashflows.

MLA, PGC etc have to keep winning new business to grow & branch out, & thats should be there focus, rather than risk losing business haggling over margins

Another contract win for MLA & they are certainly busy, i see this as a positive for MLA's management

[steve fleming]

MLA - MLA secures new distribution agreement with Smith & Nephew

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=MLA&E=ASX&N=645318

Im bit more bullish than you then Steve, these plays simply cannot expect to "grow & maintain" margins like the bigger players, especially when they are turning things around back into profitability/positive cashflows.

MLA, PGC etc have to keep winning new business to grow & branch out, & thats should be there focus, rather than risk losing business haggling over margins

Another contract win for MLA & they are certainly busy, i see this as a positive for MLA's management

Hi Shasta, the brr interview with MLA today is certainly very positive.

Excelent sales of $1.25m in August (versus average monthly sales in FY11 of $730k).

It sounds as though it is slowly starting to ramp up nicely for MLA.

[steve fleming]

Burette pruduct developer Analytica Limited (ASX:ALT) went up 50% on Thursday on the back of this research report valuing it at about $50m.

http://www.analyticamedical.com/downloads/2011/20111130-WiseOwl-Analytica.pdf

MLA has an exclusive contract within Australia, New Zealand and the UK to market ALTs AutoStart® Burette and AutoFlush feature. MLAs pays for marketing and production while ALT will receive a royalty on gross sales.

MLA therefore provides excellent exposure to any ALT product success, whilst bearing none of the development risk. MLA of course has multiple other revenue streams.

[steve fleming]

Burette pruduct developer Analytica Limited (ASX:ALT) went up 50% on Thursday on the back of this research report valuing it at about $50m.

http://www.analyticamedical.com/downloads/2011/20111130-WiseOwl-Analytica.pdf

MLA has an exclusive contract within Australia, New Zealand and the UK to market ALTs AutoStart® Burette and AutoFlush feature. MLAs pays for marketing and production while ALT will receive a royalty on gross sales.

MLA therefore provides excellent exposure to any ALT product success, whilst bearing none of the development risk. MLA of course has multiple other revenue streams.

A big start to the year for ALT.

Presumably becasue of this:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/companies/the-top-100-investments-for-2010-part-i/story-fn91v9q3-1226233562322


Rated no 1 investment in 2012 by the Australian

But hardly a murmur in MLA.

[percy]

I have MLA on a watch list.I note they have traded around 2 cents for a while,yet after the recent "update to independant report on MLA"
[which I thought was positive],and the "appendix 4C" [which appeared OK to me],the SP of MLA has dropped to 1.5cents.
What am I missing?

[shasta]

I have MLA on a watch list.I note they have traded around 2 cents for a while,yet after the recent "update to independant report on MLA"
[which I thought was positive],and the "appendix 4C" [which appeared OK to me],the SP of MLA has dropped to 1.5cents.
What am I missing?

Liquidity i would assume, the option money came in mid 2011, so maybe a few looking for the exit door?

[percy]

Thanks shasta.I have PGC and PGCOA which are also very illiquid at present.Sector must be out of fashion at present.? Good time to buy?

[Lizard]

I'm not finding much liquidity in any of the specs I'm following at the moment. Keep vowing to give them up altogether and only stick to shares that trade $100k per day or more.... just need to sell the collection....

(...like that's going to happen before my funeral!)

[percy]

I'm not finding much liquidity in any of the specs I'm following at the moment. Keep vowing to give them up altogether and only stick to shares that trade $100k per day or more.... just need to sell the collection....

(...like that's going to happen before my funeral!)

I am thinking of the quote;"It's always darkest before dawn."
ps.we may be well positioned for the upturn.!!!

[steve fleming]

I have MLA on a watch list.I note they have traded around 2 cents for a while,yet after the recent "update to independant report on MLA"
[which I thought was positive],and the "appendix 4C" [which appeared OK to me],the SP of MLA has dropped to 1.5cents.
What am I missing?

Hi Percy,

I thought the 4c wasn't too bad - cash flow positive in a period where sales are ramping up to me looks pretty good.

I suspect (but hope not) that word has got out about a future capital raise and underwriters/brokers are trying to position themselves.

Still baffled by the difference in market caps between ALT and MLA. Sure there is more upside to ALT if it enters the US market (where MLA is not its agent), but if it got to that stage you would think it would have been proved in Australia first (where MLA is already getting revenues from a couple of hospitals).

[percy]

Thanks for your reply Steve.Holding cash as it looks as though I will have to convert my PGCOAs.Thought they would have been stronger,could have sold some and brought a few MLA.Has not happened,so will have to rework the finances.!

[Entrep]

looks as though I will have to convert my PGCOAs.

ha! Just emailed ASB Sec on Friday to send me the form to convert mine

[steve fleming]

So MLA have announced a " a company-transforming development with the establishment and roll out of a break-through
regenerative animal stem cell therapy, under the trademark TUTAVet, into the United Kingdom and Irish markets"

While it may sound impressive, I question how long it will take to build up revenues from this rather significant investment ($500k).

In any event, probably an acknowledgment that MLA currently lacks the scale to effectively compete in relation to their OEM business.

Best bet here would be for a Medivet/MLA merger to fully capture the margins associated with what MLA have termed " a major strategic development for the company as it moves us into an area of the animal healthcare industry where we are offering a more cutting edge technology with higher margins, repeat business and future cross-selling opportunities"