A Few Reflections on the Christchurch Rebuilding - the horse has bolted already!

[Major von Tempsky]

It has been noticeable in Chch, or at least since I came here in 1993, that the highest and fastest growing commercial rents were to be had to the north and west of Cashel St/Colombo St. Valuation Dept reports documented this. Around the airport all is rumbling with completing projects.

Curiously, the north and west is also the area spared by the Sept 4 quake and Feb 22 quake.

Everywhere that was available for lease pre-quake e.g Canty Technology Park and Kendal Ave for example are all now leased. The last available site in CTP is now suddenly having a building constructed on it. The only quake damaged building in CTP looks like it is not only being repaired but extended. All the businesses that can have moved out to the west, people have moved from the east to live friends and relatives and shopping has moved west.
Everywhere in the west and to a lesser extent the north is a frantic busyness, a hive of activity and the traffic count both vehicular and foot has soared.

Meanwhile the clearance and rebuilding of the quake damaged areas which is supposed to be "urgent" and "important" drags at a snails pace without any noticeable rebuilding as yet.
Most people just can't be bothered with all the scrapping about what form and when the new building will take, they have already moved on.
My prediction is that when the government rebuilding is completed in 5 years time there won't be a market for it. It's in the wrong place, there are too many arguments people can't be bothered with and life has already moved on.
Why move back to unpopular slow areas that could well be prone to more earthquakes? Maybe the thing to do is to preserve the quake damage as a tourist attraction - and that's a serious suggestion!

[ratkin]

? Maybe the thing to do is to preserve the quake damage as a tourist attraction - and that's a serious suggestion!

When they rebuilt Plymouth , Devon , after the war (centre destroyed by the hun) they left one of the buildings as a tourist attraction/ reminder of what had happened, they didnt rebuild it , just left it as t was

to the city . Charles church 3294. Its still there today

[minimoke]

Maybe the thing to do is to preserve the quake damage as a tourist attraction - and that's a serious suggestion!
Maybe the thing to do is to preserve the quake damage as a tourist attraction - and that's a serious suggestion![/QUOTE]
And one with merit! I have no idea how the planners will deal with this.

People are indeed now moving on, however a city needs (I presume) a heart. I think we'll find the planners will create something so attractive in the CBD that people will migrate back there. Lets face it, the Chinese takeaway, a dairy, restaurant and lawnmower shop are hardly going to be a major drawcard for a new CBD based off Kendal Ave. Westerly development will be a tad stymied by the airport and their expansion plans. As for the eastern residential suburbs many of those will be gone and to have a park in its place instead.

I think you'll find that some of the urgency has gone of the CBD as planners are now faced with "What do we do now". Obviously huge tracts of land will be opened up as buildings are demolished. But in the mean time a cohesive development plan needs to be worked out, plans designed, consents obtained and workers found.

This is not going to be a 12 month fix. Its going to be many years before the Christhcurch building boom is over and in the meantime some folks will pass away never to see the final job completed.

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Minimoke tell me when have you seen a project move quickly with Fletchers Running it. You need at least Four big construction companies competing to get this city construction going not one more interested in big profits than anything else. Draw up some bulk house plans like Beazley homes had & ship the kitsets from overseas if necessary without Fletchers controling the supply Chain

[minimoke]

Minimoke tell me when have you seen a project move quickly with Fletchers Running it.
Can't think of one off hand. But remember there are three are essentially five lots of projects
- under $10,000 residential repairs: no fletcher there. DYI or local trades will get things moving.
- $10,000 - $100,000 residential repairs. (Fletchers here and I fall into this category so not expecting my place to get fixed for 2 - 3 years)
- $100,000 + residential repair and rebuild - no Fletcher's here though part of their business will no doubt be tendering. Problem here will be land remediation and can't blame fletchers for that..
- CBD etc building construction: again no fletcher here unless they tender.
- Infrastructure sewer/storm and roads. Fletcher need to perform in the above categories to get a look in here. They didn't win the sewer-to-sea pipeline so will be working hard (or clever) here.

[Serpie]

Correct Minimoke - Fletchers are only contracted to EQC for the residential $10k- $100k repairs.
The destruction of the CBD is of little concern to EQC (as it's commercial not residential) and therefore it's up to the insurers and the construction companies to handle the re-build, and Fletchers will have to compete for this work along with all of the others.
Mainzeal, Hawkins and others already have agreements with the main insurers and property owners, and have subcontractors on board with agreed rates and margins.

Fletchers share of the CBD re-build may well be diminished because of existing obligations to the EQC, which of course were entered into when the ChCh issues were mainly residential before February. Fletchers may not have competed so keenly for the EQC contract if the CBD had been destroyed by the first earthquake? Who knows.

Incidentally, we're now developing some new shorthand down here in the ChCh construction industry. Earthquake was quickly shortened to "EQ" of course, as it seemed to form part of every second sentence, but now we just say "E1" and "E2".

[Serpie]

3296

This church in Berlin was stunning. Destroyed during WW2 and left as a monument.

[Lizard]

Hi Serpie,

Much as we Wellingtonians are glad it wasn't our earthquake, I have to say, there's a wee bit of jealousy over the construction rebuild spend! Already, some signs that the schools budget up this way could be getting the squeeze as funds are diverted. Likely this is only the beginning of further diversion of funds away from a construction industry that was twilighting on the last of the 08-09 stimulus money.

I suspect sub-contractors around the country are starting to get itchy feet...

[Serpie]

I suspect sub-contractors around the country are starting to get itchy feet...

No doubt Lizard. After E1 we had sub-contractors from other cities ringing up saying "we're here for you guys. we can have teams in ChCh to help within days. We all need to work together".
I emailed one company back and said "Thanks for your support! We're on top of things down here, but really keen to work together. Are there any projects in Wellington that you need help with?" Never heard from them after that. Hehe.

But the truth is that eventually we'll need help. We were looking at a recovering construction landscape before E1, and order books were starting to fill up again. E1 ensured that would happen, so we really didn't need E2.

The immediate problem is that everything is on hold, including existing projects. CCC has stopped issuing building consents across the board, and are only issuing CPU's for existing consents.

Christchurch is a small town, and the construction industry is very clicky. All of the main contractors are already getting their preferred subbies in bed with them and snuggling up for the long haul.

What may happen is that out of town (OOT) construction companies will tackle projects in ChCh, and will bring all of their existing OOT subbies with them. All paid for by insurance companies looking to get the job done at the cheapest cost, so quality is always going to be an issue.

Interesting times head.

I'm taking the family to Disneyland in 10 days, so I'm just hoping the San Andreas fault behaves itself during April!

[minimoke]

Already, some signs that the schools budget up this way could be getting the squeeze as funds are diverted.
Every govt department can expect a major squeeze. I reckon we'll see a significant shift in spending away from most govt activity except health (its election year after all) so that Canterbury and Auckland can be funded.

While Canterbury rebuild is big (and thats an understatement), what is bigger, from a residential perspective, is Leaky Buildings. Its not hard to get your head around needing to have 10's of thousands of homes repaired and rebuilt due to Natures earthquake/s. But 40,000 homes needing over $12b of repair due to Man's stupidity is mind boggling.

[winner69]

Every govt department can expect a major squeeze. I reckon we'll see a significant shift in spending away from most govt activity except health (its election year after all) so that Canterbury and Auckland can be funded.

While Canterbury rebuild is big (and thats an understatement), what is bigger, from a residential perspective, is Leaky Buildings. Its not hard to get your head around needing to have 10's of thousands of homes repaired and rebuilt due to Natures earthquake/s. But 40,000 homes needing over $12b of repair due to Man's stupidity is mind boggling.

Agree Mini and in light of Serpies cpmment about quality re the Chch rebuild I have that feeling that we may be setting ourselves for another big 'problem' in 10-15 years time

Doesn't really matter cause the govt/councils will help out eh

[Major von Tempsky]

Brilliant example on front page of The Press on why the government should be slimmed and jobs contracted out for efficient private enterprise to get their teeth into!

The Dept of Building and Housing has placed 299 campervans on Canty Agric Park as temporary housing for quake refugees.
They've been there for 2 weeks and "the Dept has still not made them available!"
Gilbert and Sullivan comedy! Get your teeth into that one Possum.

[trackers]

It has been noticeable in Chch, or at least since I came here in 1993, that the highest and fastest growing commercial rents were to be had to the north and west of Cashel St/Colombo St. Valuation Dept reports documented this. Around the airport all is rumbling with completing projects.

Curiously, the north and west is also the area spared by the Sept 4 quake and Feb 22 quake.

Everywhere that was available for lease pre-quake e.g Canty Technology Park and Kendal Ave for example are all now leased. The last available site in CTP is now suddenly having a building constructed on it. The only quake damaged building in CTP looks like it is not only being repaired but extended. All the businesses that can have moved out to the west, people have moved from the east to live friends and relatives and shopping has moved west.
Everywhere in the west and to a lesser extent the north is a frantic busyness, a hive of activity and the traffic count both vehicular and foot has soared.

Meanwhile the clearance and rebuilding of the quake damaged areas which is supposed to be "urgent" and "important" drags at a snails pace without any noticeable rebuilding as yet.
Most people just can't be bothered with all the scrapping about what form and when the new building will take, they have already moved on.
My prediction is that when the government rebuilding is completed in 5 years time there won't be a market for it. It's in the wrong place, there are too many arguments people can't be bothered with and life has already moved on.
Why move back to unpopular slow areas that could well be prone to more earthquakes? Maybe the thing to do is to preserve the quake damage as a tourist attraction - and that's a serious suggestion!

Working in the CTP before and after EQ I can attest to this... The developers over this way must be rubbing their hands with glee... Geez the traffic is atrocious now also :(

[minimoke]

When they rebuilt Plymouth , Devon , after the war (centre destroyed by the hun) they left one of the buildings as a tourist attraction/ reminder of what had happened, they didnt rebuild it , just left it as t was

to the city .

Interesting example Ratkin

59 bombing raids compared with Christchurch 260 shakes at >M4

Nearly 4,000 houses destroyed with 8,000 seriously damaged. Christchurch has around 2,500 CBD buildings and 10,000 residential houses to be demolished. EQC anticipates 300,000 claims.

A plan to rebuild Plymouth was done in 1943. By 1946 pre-fab temporary housing was built. By the late '40's Council estates were being built continuing into the '60's. Shopping center re-builds were still happening in 1951 - 56. In 1962 the Civic Center was built and by 2007 it was up for demolition, Law Courts built in '64. By 1971 not everyone had had their housing sorted - with multiple families living in accommodation.

And people think we'll be up and running by Christmas!

[POSSUM THE CAT]

Major von Tempsky Typical John Key makes the big announcement that they have arrived then forgets about allocating then to busy looking for the next grandstanding headline.

[COLIN]

When they rebuilt Plymouth , Devon , after the war (centre destroyed by the hun) they left one of the buildings as a tourist attraction/ reminder of what had happened, they didnt rebuild it , just left it as t was

to the city . Charles church 3294. Its still there today

Well I hope that Ch-ch can do a better job with reconstructing the heart of the city (wherever that might be in future) than was done for Plymouth. Have been there once or twice and its disconcertingly uninspiring.