Bringing Down the House

[FarmerGeorge]

Just wondering if anyone has parlayed their share trading expertise into having a crack at Blackjack a la the MIT math team from the movie 21 (and the book titled per this thread)?
An interesting application of stats and if you get it right I suggest much less risky than the sharemarket!

[Corporate]

Just wondering if anyone has parlayed their share trading expertise into having a crack at Blackjack a la the MIT math team from the movie 21 (and the book titled per this thread)?
An interesting application of stats and if you get it right I suggest much less risky than the sharemarket!

I believe that the share market is much less risky. If you do your research, invest in a select few stocks and watch them very closely you reduce your risk substantially.

[CJ]

An interesting application of stats and if you get it right I suggest much less risky than the sharemarket!there is another book by the same author (Ben M___) that goes into the odds more from memory.

The way it works is if you count cards, you can figure out the time to bet heavy. The problem is this activity will get you kicked out. So they had people betting low and signalling in the whale to bet big.

So as an individual, you are pretty much stuck with the general odds (which are apparently the best in the house with only a 2%ish losing ratio)

[ratkin]

They might be the best odds in the house , they are also the safest for the management (apart from cheats)
If you play blackjack your just going to lose slowly with no real big wins.

At least with roulette its possible to come out a huge winner on any given night , thas why its the best game
to play if your just a casual player out for a bit of fun.

I hardly ever play any of them as its kind of galling knowing that in the long run you will lose.

[robo]

I augmented my income considerably through the roullette table in casinos around Oz over the years, its like any gambling you must resit the urge to bet evertime and wait for the the odds to work to your advantage which can be work as opposed to fun , best ever run was on black eleven times straight , a night to remember that one

[CJ]

They might be the best odds in the house , they are also the safest for the management (apart from cheats)
If you play blackjack your just going to lose slowly with no real big wins.

At least with roulette its possible to come out a huge winner on any given night , thas why its the best game
to play if your just a casual player out for a bit of fun.Fore every big winner, there are lots of lossers. the odds of winning (or should I say lossing the least) is best in blackjack. The casinos know all the odds so know what to expect in the long run.


I augmented my income considerably through the roullette table in casinos around Oz over the years, its like any gambling you must resit the urge to bet evertime and wait for the the odds to work to your advantage which can be work as opposed to fun , best ever run was on black eleven times straight , a night to remember that oneI did a gambling night once (not my own money) but decided to test the double down system. Bet black and if you lose, double your bet and bet black again. Black will eventually come up. The risk is tables have minimums and maximums. Playing for 3 hours and never hit the maximum (except last hand when I went all in) but was just below it a couple of times but luckily enought won. The other issue is you need enought money to double down till you win:

Bet $50, $100, $200, $400, $800, $1600, $3200 (I cant remember if it maxed out at $3k or $5k for this table) so your run of 11 blacks would have paid well (11 wins of $50) but 11 reds would have knocked me out.

[robo]

the trick is to play in big casinos with multiple roulette tables, position yourself so that you can follow 5/6 tables digital displays, wait till it goes black or red 3-4-5 times and go the other colour, its not often it goes many more that 5-6-7 times one colour but you need to cover the green option as well; as I said you have to wait until the conditions are right and then go for it, in other word do not be impulsive but calculating

[arcticblue]

Robo: I don't understand how the odds change in roulette, I thought they were always fixed. Each spin of the wheel is independent of all past spins so just because it has landed on black the last 6 times doesn't mean it will hit black this time. The odds of it hitting black are still 16/38. Have I missed something about how roulette works?

[robo]

Robo: I don't understand how the odds change in roulette, I thought they were always fixed. Each spin of the wheel is independent of all past spins so just because it has landed on black the last 6 times doesn't mean it will hit black this time. The odds of it hitting black are still 16/38. Have I missed something about how roulette works?

in theory you are right in practice it doesnt work like that; I have worked in a few casinos and socialised and eaten lunch with many croupiers and the most the ones I have spoken to have seen it go was 16 times which is extreme, the most I have seen is 11, go to a casino and check it out, more often than not 5-6-7 is the numbers and then green just to catch out the neewbs :)

[CJ]

Robo - do you know what the spread between minimum and maximum bet is? I assume you double down if you lose as I described above?

[robo]

Robo - do you know what the spread between minimum and maximum bet is? I assume you double down if you lose as I described above?
I would only double up a max of a certain number of times, not to many times is the key, a combination of all the factors Ive discussed makes it work , it actually becomes kinda boring however you could make it into a social/work event as long as you stay within vision of multiple tables and dont drink too much:) and watch that zero!!

[FarmerGeorge]

That doubling strategy for roulette did occur to me but given the 00 and the table max I can see it blowing up at some point!
Thanks for inputs I'll have a read of a few books and if I'm able to win anything will let you know! Also just realised most Blackjack tables have automatic shuffling machines which shuffle every hand so you'll struggle to get the odds to fall in your favour anyway.

[arcticblue]

I suggest you have a look at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roulette section 10. Finding a biased wheel appears to be the best technique. The real life exploits section is interesting too.

[ratkin]

the trick is to play in big casinos with multiple roulette tables, position yourself so that you can follow 5/6 tables digital displays, wait till it goes black or red 3-4-5 times and go the other colour, its not often it goes many more that 5-6-7 times one colour but you need to cover the green option as well; as I said you have to wait until the conditions are right and then go for it, in other word do not be impulsive but calculating

Robo , what you are employing is statistically false.
The wheel has no memory

Doubling up systems are also futile , they are known as the martingale technique
and have been used by gamblers for probably centuries , and dont work.
Some use them on horse racing , waiting for say five favourites in a row to lose then
start betting on the favourites doubling up every bet and stopping at a winner.

They dont work because you need a limitless bank and the ability to get all
bets matched , which in practice is impossible'

Betting red for example you need 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 1012 2024 4048 8,096
total stake around 16,000 think you wont get 13 blacks in a row? one day you will
and all that to win 1 dollar

[robo]

Robo , what you are employing is statistically false.
The wheel has no memory

Doubling up systems are also futile , they are known as the martingale technique
and have been used by gamblers for probably centuries , and dont work.
Some use them on horse racing , waiting for say five favourites in a row to lose then
start betting on the favourites doubling up every bet and stopping at a winner.

They dont work because you need a limitless bank and the ability to get all
bets matched , which in practice is impossible'

Betting red for example you need 1 2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 1012 2024 4048 8,096
total stake around 16,000 think you wont get 13 blacks in a row? one day you will
and all that to win 1 dollar


if you bet each time on one table you are correct , re read the posts multiple tables et al , dont bet every time wait to odds in your favour then go, yes sometimes you have to stop , for me it was after 3/4 attempt at breaking the colour ,
I dont really care what you think is possible , the extra money i made helped me to purchase my first bar/restaurant in Qland :cool:

That article is talking about systems of betting on predicting ever roll of the dice or at least a percentage better than the house on a single table, if you are calculating and are following multiple tables those rules dont apply , better still ratkin give it a go yourself

[Snapper]

"Fore every big winner, there are lots of lossers" - lossers, what a brilliant word, combination of losers and tossers

[FarmerGeorge]

"Fore every big winner, there are lots of lossers" - lossers, what a brilliant word, combination of losers and tossers

Read my mind.

[robo]

Ha ha you guys are funny; I love it when doubters make judgments before actually investigating what is possible in reality as opposed to quoting from wikipedia.

I have a family of close friends who are 3rd generation bookies in WA; they have been hugely successful, commercial property investments, heaps of overseas travel, and private schools for all children in the extended family, which shows there is money in gambling ( read managing the odds) if you talk to people like them they can explain how to make money from gambling, and no , they wont have done a wiki about it ha hhhaaaaaaaaaaaahah and I know what coming next a suggestion that bookies lay off the risk etc etc thats what you do in roulette as well...... these guys showed me how!

I stopped hanging out in casinos due to how sad a place they are when you see the subculture for what it is , lonely people , gambling addicts and other very sad situations:( as well as it becoming like a job employing the techniques that I used

Talk to pit bosses, croupiers and academics( people who are experts on gambling and whats happening in the gamblers mind)who can explain to you how casinos work, in simplistic terms by exploiting the compulsion to bet every time.



Don’t hate the player hate the game -

[FarmerGeorge]

I'm really just curious as to whether anyone has tried and either had success... or failed!
robo did you ever try blackjack? Would you mind sharing any experiences you had?

[Snapper]

I always thought that scratchies would be a type of gambling it would be impossible to make money off but have a look at this...http://www.wired.com/magazine/2011/01/ff_lottery/all/1

[robo]

I'm really just curious as to whether anyone has tried and either had success... or failed!
robo did you ever try blackjack? Would you mind sharing any experiences you had?

the first time I went to a casino had a good win on blackjack through beginners luck , they comped me a meal for two in one of their restaurants, went there had a meal, went straight-out afterwards and blew the lot,(re exploit the urge to continue betting every time)

You cannot apply the methods I used on roulette on 21 so no real experience of blackjack apart from above , However had a work colleague who reckons he could count , he seemed to have great success at times however he subsequently developed all kind of addicitions and issues including getting caught for theft as a servant ( re all kinds of sad situations).

[ratkin]

I hate to say it Robbo but your talking nonsense.

It makes no difference if you change tables etc the odds are not in your favour and
no staking plan can put them in your favour.

Only way you can make money long term at the casino is by playing poker against other
customers. If your good enough that is possible although the house rake (commision)
will eat heavily into the profits.
However poker is a game of skill , but roulette is just a game of chance

[robo]

I hate to say it Robbo but your talking nonsense.

It makes no difference if you change tables etc the odds are not in your favour and
no staking plan can put them in your favour.

Only way you can make money long term at the casino is by playing poker against other
customers. If your good enough that is possible although the house rake (commision)
will eat heavily into the profits.
However poker is a game of skill , but roulette is just a game of chance


ever given it a crack Ratkin?, or is this your wikipedia experience talking lol , odds dont change from watchin multiples and picking the eyes out of six tables , really ratkin:confused: ? think about it, this is not the same as what wikipedia is judgeing on is it

[ratkin]

Your deluded

[robo]

Your deluded


are you a stats person ratkin?, heres a question , if one colour has comeup for lets say 5 times straight,are the odds getting better that the other colour will come up or does the chance stay equal , 50/50 if you discount the green

[ratkin]

50/50 provided the table a fair one

[robo]

hmmmm i see, next question , 100 people walk into a big casino all start off with 1k and gamble for 2 hours and at some stage they all have had all of their money on the roulette table. after 2hours are up how many have more than 1k and how many will have less :confused:.

[ratkin]

Impossible to answer mathematically

1) Dont know how many spins they participated in
2) dont know their stakes per spin
3) over two hours there can be large variance in results

All that can be said is that given the zero overall they are likely to be down


http://www.wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

I suggest you read this

[robo]

Impossible to answer mathematically


as i thought Ratkin

thanks for the web link - another great resources(yawn)

when im talkin multiple tables im not talkin small regional casinos

the zero??? is it the zeros fault people will be in the negative, arnt you allowed to cover the zero??

[ratkin]

Best you can hope for is that the house only has a 1.35% edge , and that is playing on a wheel with only one zero , and one which allows bets en prison if the ball lands on zero.

Either way in the long run you lose

[robo]

thats the stats over a given period on average ?

[ratkin]

the trick is to play in big casinos with multiple roulette tables, position yourself so that you can follow 5/6 tables digital displays, wait till it goes black or red 3-4-5 times and go the other colour, its not often it goes many more that 5-6-7 times one colour but you need to cover the green option as well; as I said you have to wait until the conditions are right and then go for it, in other word do not be impulsive but calculating

This is just so basically wrong that i dont even see the point of discussing it anymore , like i said your deluded

[robo]

This is just so basically wrong that i dont even see the point of discussing it anymore , like i said your deluded

K ratkin.............. thanks for the fun while it lasted

[skeet]

I had a good run for a while, doubled my money ($40) every time over 6 visits, playing $5 chips on the outside (Dozen bets) How did I do it, luck. Lost near on every thing my following 4 visits. Then gave up that method. They only way I can figure out that you can slightly stack the odds in your fav is play the two outside Columns and black, only giving up 5, 14, 23, 32 and green.

[arcticblue]

Robo: clearly you've got lucky at the roulette table and feel it is due to skill. But why would the casino allow punters to play roulette if there was more than a 50% chance of the customer winning? The casino is in the business of making money, there is no way they would let you play a game like that. They know that you are winning by luck, if they thought you had a system that actually won you can be sure that you would be asked to leave. Read the stories about people playing blackjack any one who could count cards and bet appropriately was asked to leave. The best chance of beating roulette is via a biased wheel or mathematical calculations to work out based on where the ball is let go and what speed it and the wheel are rotating at, if this could be done reliably then the quadrant where the ball is most likely to end up could be calculated. This is possibly becoming more realistic with powerful smartphones that can record video. You can be sure that if someone manages to achieve this then the rules of roulette will change to require all bets to be placed before the wheel is spun.

The house always wins in the long run. Those that are a threat to the house winning are removed, they are regarded as a threat.

[ratkin]

Robo

Question

Have you wondered why they put the tables close together?

Have you wondered why they have big electronic displays above the tables, showing
results of previous spins ?

Answer

To encourage people like yourself to believe you can beat them by
taking advantage of sequences

[robo]

Thanks Ratkin, you resisted the urge to use the ‘deluded’ word this time.

I remember reading a piece from the states in the herald sometime ago outlining how a researcher had taken a group of investment analysts stock picks and then got a chimpanzee to throw a dart at a board with stock symbols on it as a way of assembling the monkeys picks, both portfolios were followed and over a sustained period of time the chimp won..


If it makes you feel any better maybe you could think of me as that crazy dart throwing chimpanzee who some how beats the odds and defies logic (and web resources) for a period of time.