Crisis opportunities ... When to buy? ... When support forms obviously

[belgarion]

TWR is finding support

[scamper]

Over what time period?!
Yesterday it could be said that blt 'found support'.
Am inclined to think that 'support' and August 2011 may only have mystical, mythical and magical links ...

Am (academically) interested in bargains for the brave. Are RYM and NZR in that category yet?
Cheers, and chins up, Scamper.

[digger]

Just a thought about the current world economic meltdown and civil unrest in MENA and now London.Maybe this thread is the best place to discuss it as it does deal in exactally what the thread heading says.
At the moment cash is KING,so investers are selling at any price to get the stuff. Cash during my life has not always been KING and in fact during high inflactionary periods it was regarded as something to quickly get rid of before its purchasing power dropped. Back in the 70 and early 80 this was the case. Too much inflation has its own problems so by the mid 80 govt world wide set as a primary goal to get inflation under control. From the mid 80 until about 2008 we enjoyed a long stable economic period.Since then gradually cash has increasionally been prefered to equities.
Today we have the flip side of high inflaction or deflation.Do not buy today as tomorrow things will be cheaper.And do not buy tomorrow as the day after tomorrow things will be even cheaper. So back to the tytle of this thread WHEN TO BUY.
Well i think the only time to buy is when one of two things happen or they both happen together. Is the yield on the stock less wat you thing the stock value might further devalue greater than interest at the bank. TWO--buy quickly when it dawns on world govts that inflation is needed to correct the imbalance between cash and buying into the world producing companies.
Thoughts.

[Toasty]

Hi there. First post. I must admit I was glad to see this thread come up. Was hoping some general information would become available at some point. Quite keen to make the most of this opportunity but a bit jittery about when to get in. My plan is mainly to buy a couple of quality yield stocks at reasonable prices and hold on. GFF is one I have been watching.

[Roger]

Thoughts Digger...@#ck me, who would have figured it ?? Egypt, the whole north of Africa, now London, Standard and Poors, (like they covered themselves in glory with the whole sub-prime fiasco) and oh yeah how could I forget, last but certainly not least the markets almost in complete meltdown.

Here's my thoughts, perhaps it would be helpful if I mentioned I'm an accountant with 30 years experience so I feel I get a reasonable handle on where a wide cross section of the business community are at. The consumer is very seriously stretched and I feel its a very serious sytemic issue throughout the western world and it could take quite some years of retrenchment before they feel safe to poke their heads out of their shell's in a menaingful way. High level's of debt as everyone knows don't dissipate in a hurry, in fact some decent inflation may be the best remedy otherwise we could be in for a pretty miserable few years ahead.

The European situation is an ongoing prevailing concern, sovriegn debt concerns abound, the EU seems to be a beast with a limited lifespan and where and how will the fate of the PIGS ultimatly unfold ? I believe against this back-drop market participants are now quite rightly beginning to ask wheres the growth going to come from ?
N.Z. Govt's fiscal plans are underpinned by so called economic growth projections that many have publicly gone on record as saying are far too optimistic so could we be in for a credit rating downgrade at some stage in the future if the world economy continues to implode ?

Can't really see a lot of reasons to be optimistic can you ?

[BIRMANBOY]

Two points I would make here Toasty....(a) if anyone actually knew when is the "right" time to get in..they would be f****g billionaires and wouldnt be posting on this forum :-) and (b) just because a stock has had a decent yield up until now is no guarantee they wont put it on hold because of "current market conditions" . However in saying that GFF is at its lowest in five years so now is better than at any time previously in the last five years!!!! However next week may be lower??? As I remind myself occasionally the share market is only marginally better than the casino. What you might think about is buy some now with say 1/3 of your funds...watch and see what happens and buy a bit more if it goes down further etc... orrrrrrr you could do what many pundits do and wait until it "appears" to have turned the corner and is going up again. Problem is it may go up for 2 days and then start going down.. OH S>>t what to do..what to do. There is no-one and I repeat no-one who can tell you what to do beause its all guess work, some more educated than others I should point out. If you are looking for quality yield and holding on...spreading your buying over a number of Companies and patient observation will see you right. You wont be right all the time but hopefully will be able to at least beat the bank rates. Just remember that now is A GOOD TIME TO BUY BASED ON PREVIOUS YEARS performances BUT THIS IS LIMITED BECAUSE WE DONT KNOW WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT FEW YEARS.
Hi there. First post. I must admit I was glad to see this thread come up. Was hoping some general information would become available at some point. Quite keen to make the most of this opportunity but a bit jittery about when to get in. My plan is mainly to buy a couple of quality yield stocks at reasonable prices and hold on. GFF is one I have been watching.

[Major von Tempsky]

There's a crisis in Somalia and an opportunity to lose weight there....and another crisis in Mexico and an opportunity for live target practice there....and a crisis in Tottenham and an opportunity for some free shopping there....

[RazorX]

When to buy might depend on your goals and reasons for buying. Are you looking for a long term investment and to too concerned at getting the entry point exact? In that case when the markets settle after this current drop is over might be a good time. However if you are a bit of a trader, or like to time your entries on a bit of 'fact' then maybe when an indicator or two show its a good time to buy. Example might be when the price crosses up through a 90 day average and the RSI goes above 50? Just floating some ideas.

[belgarion]

PPL found support ... Low volume bounce back will be rapid ... not an option
MHI never lost it (great sign!) ... Low volume bounce back will be rapid ... not an option
FPA found support ... Good volumes but small % price movement ... top up
FPH found support ... don't know
POT found support ... maybe
TEL hasn't found it yet ... stay clear
SKC seemed to find it ... hmmm
WHS seemed to find it ... Top up
NPX I not sure about but maybe ... possible top up
[and the list goes on]

Midday seems the time to be in with those that found support - today at least.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures
Relief rally tomorrow? Very likely indeed. :)

[belgarion]

Another idea RazorX ... if this bollocks is like last year ... wait one month and then just buy :)

[Lizard]

FPA was my one tiny buy today.

[troyvdh]

...not wishing to go on ....CEN is now paying 5 %...div.....I would really appreciate an explaination as to why anyone would sell at this level....however I do have to admit being a wee bit biased...given that I just love being in that part of NZ....central otago....

cheers...

[elZorro]

Interesting thread. Roger, it's OK, my accountant can't spell either, or the one I had before that.
It must be an occupational hazard.
:)
Major VT, made me laugh, many thanks.

Like the rest of you, I don't have any answers either..but OGC went up 10% this afternoon, I don't have any.

[777]

...not wishing to go on ....CEN is now paying 5 %...div.....I would really appreciate an explaination as to why anyone would sell at this level....however I do have to admit being a wee bit biased...given that I just love being in that part of NZ....central otago....

cheers...

Maybe this has something to do with CEN's price.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10737979

[Roger]

Interesting thread. Roger, it's OK, my accountant can't spell either, or the one I had before that.
It must be an occupational hazard.:)
Major VT, made me laugh, many thanks.

Like the rest of you, I don't have any answers either..but OGC went up 10% this afternoon, I don't have any.

LOL, I think it is. Good with numbers but must remember to use the spell checker.

Today's question...dead cat bounce....or have we hit the bottom ?, really I feel you can just flip a coin on that one, if anyone has one left :)

[craic]

Looks like the buy back time is now! Which is a surprise to me (and the Mayans) but it was a bit of excitement while it lasted. I have some buy orders in at market but the only ones I would avoid at this stage would be electronic retailers in the UK where the profit margins must be going down faster than the stocks.

[belgarion]

Mark Weldon's interview in the herald was interesting. He put the large falls down to "machines". Machines doing the (short) selling and machines blocking big orgs from trying to catch falling knives ...

[minimoke]

So, what I don't understand is that it has been said its the Mum and Pop investors who have panicked over the last few days driving prices of good quality stock down. But other stock like ALF and NZF remain untouched by the turmoil.

[777]

Actually I don't think the average "Mum and Pop" investor moves very fast. It is usually the 6pm news that informs them what the markets have done. Then they have to work out whether to sell. Then how to do it.

I think it is the more active shareholders that drive the markets.

[craic]

I agree. Many small investors use the market details in the weekend papers. The consensus was that fund managers were the ones most likely hitting he button. I'm not slow but I had trouble shouldering my way into the buy back queue this morning.

[RazorX]

LOL, I think it is. Good with numbers but must remember to use the spell checker.

Today's question...dead cat bounce....or have we hit the bottom ?, really I feel you can just flip a coin on that one, if anyone has one left :)


Hi Roger - just to make sure my understanding is correct, when you say "dead cat bounce" is that when the price hits a low and then goes back up (Say for example NPX hit 2.27 yesterday and opened 22 cents highter at $2.55) then continues on a downward trend? (Just looking at NPX it's been in a down trend since March with solid selling so I was a bit suprised to see it open at $2.55 today.... kinda hoping it'd keep going down and pick some up at $2.20... that might be wishful thinking :))

[777]

It is only wikipedia but covers it.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_cat_bounce

[Hoop]

Details on Dead cat bounce formations ...http://thepatternsite.com/dcb.html

[belgarion]

NZD tumbled again last night ... should help to protect the economy some ...

[biology12]

thoughts on today? i read that overseas shares got hit a bit?

[scamper]

hi razorx, you might just be getting a first-hand, close-up look at a Dead Cat Bounce.
I think the charts suggest the bounces will get lower as the floor drops.
One has to be a very fast-pawed cat with home-work up to their ears to make money here.
Scamper's an old dog, so sitting pop-eyed in the corner ...

[Grimy]

Took the opportunity to buy some CEN and NPX today. Possibly not the right time (when is?), but certainly bought down my average for CEN in particular.

[Hoop]

Crisis opportunity

spent all my portfolio available cash buying up shares during the panic sell down (8th and 9th August) to the surprise of many on this forum as the market seemed to be in free fall with no support in sight.

I then applied the The Zurich Axioms (http://www.hbjcapital.com/2011/02/zurich-axioms.html).

2. On Greed



Always take your profit too soon: decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.

I wanted 5% accumulated total gain or better after brokerage fees on those combined investments I bought with that cash on the 8th and 9th February......got that, got out.... Friday 10th February.

I'm back to 40% cash.

Hoop is happy:)
Direct Broking $400 happier:cool::p

PS Liz..my keyboard is smelling like Jasmine too.. now

[elZorro]

Crisis opportunity

spent all my portfolio available cash buying up shares during the panic sell down (8th and 9th August) to the surprise of many on this forum.

I then applied the The Zurich Axioms (http://www.hbjcapital.com/2011/02/zurich-axioms.html).

2. On Greed


Always take your profit too soon: decide in advance what gain you want from a venture, and when you get it, get out.
I wanted 5% accumulated total gain or better after brokerage fees on those combined investments I bought with that cash on the 8th and 9th February......got that, got out.... Friday 10th February.

I'm back to 40% cash.

Hoop is happy:)
Direct Broking $400 happier:cool::p

PS Liz..my keyboard is smelling like Jasmine too.. now

Hoop, are we talking about August or February? Well done though.

Grimy, did you say you were averaging down? Good on yer mate. Don't tell Phaedrus.

[Hoop]

Hoop, are we talking about August or February? Well done though.

Grimy, did you say you were averaging down? Good on yer mate. Don't tell Phaedrus.

August... not February. Where did you get February from ElZ:confused:.... the insane panic sell which started on the 5th August 2011.

Averaging down?? ...NEVER !!!! ;);)

A couple of shares that I bought may have looked that way as I unfortunately already had some of them (see Belg's pyramid strategy for these situations)...2 others were reentries.
But no.... P would be proud as I did not use the average down strategy.... I was never going to keep these extra shares for any length of time as I had stops on them as well so as not lose too much just in case the free fall continued past major supports.

I used the basic Risk v Reward strategy and applying the Zurich Axioms discipline as that is what these Axioms were designed for.... combined with FA (the assessment that this sudden atypical group human behaviour was being driven by rumoured fear and not by a sudden change of company fundamentals) buy shares into the better performing companies using FA (to lower the risk) and then apply some bungee jumping rebound physics.

No Kiwi Ingenuity from this "Cow town" inhabitant was used as couldn't find any No8 wire ...sorry:(

See my latest post on the DOW thread re Dead cat bounce pattern assumptions for more info such as targets etc

[elZorro]

[QUOTE=Hoop;354405]August... not February. Where did you get February from ElZ:confused:.... the insane panic sell which started on the 5th August 2011. [QUOTE]


Hi Hoop, I saw 'February' in your post....have a look.. No problems about you averaging down, Grimy was the poster who admitted that. Anyway I must be one of the worst at averaging.

About time we had a get together in Hamilton, hope you are not too busy.

Cheers.

[Grimy]

Grimy, did you say you were averaging down? Good on yer mate. Don't tell Phaedrus.
Averaging Down? No. Just buying shares in companies I already have at a much better price than before..........Phaedrus may not be impressed, but Snoopy probably understands :-)

[elZorro]

Averaging Down? No. Just buying shares in companies I already have at a much better price than before..........Phaedrus may not be impressed, but Snoopy probably understands :-)

Hi Grimy, I'm keen on FA picking as well, and it's always better to be averaging up, funny how infrequently that happens with my shares..my solution lately has been to hold fewer tickers.