CSM - CONSOLIDATED MINERALS LIMITED

[thekiwi]

Business Description
Consolidated Minerals (CSM) is involved in the exploration, mining, processing and marketing of manganese and chromite ores. The company's product is used by both ferro-alloy and steel producers and is exported to customers in Japan, Europe, Korea, Taiwan and China. Mining operations are based at Port Hedland and Coobina in Western Australia.

Company Strategy
For the 6 months to 31 December 2003, CSM posted a net profit of $9.0m, up 26% on the pcp. Sales increased 16% to $53.3m. In July 2003, CSM declared a record unaudited NPAT of $25.1m for FY04. The company declared a 5c fully franked final dividend, bringing the full year payout to 8c per share. The result was struck on a 36% increase in sales to $124.6m, due to strong prices and higher chromite production.

In the June 2004 quarter, CSM produced 164,294t of manganese at Woodie Woodie, in line with the pcp and up 15% on the March 2004 quarter. An additional 2Mt of resources were delineated during the period, bringing total resources to 11.5Mt as at June 30, 2004. At Coobina, 60,685t of chromite were produced, in line with the March 2004 quarter.

CSM's exploration strategy aims to increase the resource life of its mining operations. CSM will remain focused on manganese and chromite production within Australia. Growth opportunities within Australia will be sought in order to expand and diversify CSM's production base in industrial minerals.

Exploration at Woodie Woodie in FY03 increased mine life to a minimum of 10 years. At the Coobina Chromite project, the objective is to increase production and identify additional mineralisation. CSM also owns a 20% strategic interest in Donaldson Coal, which aims to produce 2.5Mtpa over 10 to 12 years. The Mindy Mindy project is prospective for iron ore near Yandicoogina in WA and represents a medium- long term growth proposition. CSM aims to return consistent dividends to shareholders and grow through diversification of commodities and markets.

Couple of charts to get the ball rollling

http://home.infobahn.co.nz/images/asx/csm/20040817_daily.png
http://home.infobahn.co.nz/images/asx/csm/20040817_weekly.png

[marcer]

This has been a pretty good one for me over the last few months, and especially for those who've been in for a year or so.
The co. recently announced a deal to export to India as well, which could be good with the size of that countries population.

It would be nice to see those highs of 1993 and 1994 revisited over the next year.
Meantime we'll see if it can make it through that $1.80 resistance level you've charted there TK.

Following CSM.

Regards, Marcer

[stolwyk]

This has been moving nicely:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3Acsm&time=&freq=

Watch the gap at $1.83.


Gerry
Hold CSM
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

AGM PRESENTATION:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=273694

CSM is rapidly developing and has an astute management with good links to China. Could become a Mining House IMHO.

Current price $2.12

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

From Miningnews.net:

Friday, October 29, 2004
CONSOLIDATED Minerals was on track to double its profits next year according to brokers which could increase the appeal of a merger to the wary Portman.

ConsMin managing director Michael Kiernan said a merger with Portman in the next six to 12 months at ConsMin's AGM yesterday in Perth was a high possibility

"Quite clearly the companies are of similar equity and similar profitability," he said.

"No, we don't intend to takeover Portman and there is no hostility.

"Probably over the next six to 12 months there will probably be a merger."

Portman managing director Barry Eldridge told MiningNews.net if ConsMin were to put a business case to Portman for the merger it would be considered but at this point it hadn't happened.

"Clearly that's Michael's view (the merger could happen within 12 months) – my view is the same as it has always been, I remain very objective about this," he said.

"If anyone can put in front of me a business case we will consider it, we would be more than happy to look at it but no-one has and it has not been discussed in any detail at board level."

ConsMin reported solid sales figures of $125 million for the year at the AGM and focused on Bell Potter's forecast of $174.2 million for 04-05, while a profit of $25.1 million this year was forecasted by the brokers to increase to $51.3 million next year.

Production at Woodie Woodie and its expansion from 600,000 tonnes of manganese a year to 800,000t early next year was emphasised as a highlight.

Kiernan said the expansion was on budget and schedule with the extra 200,000t already sold under contract to China and Eastern Europe with the remainder expected to go to China.

He said he was confident China would continue to drive demand and commodity prices with the increasing number of middle class with India emerging as a major market in the next decade.

Shares in ConsMin were trading marginally higher at $2.04 early today.

[stolwyk]

CSM and PMM

Arising from my previous post, let us briefly refer to:

1. CSM- Consolidated Minerals Ltd.
Website: http://www.consminerals.com.au/
Shares: 182.3 mill; 9.94 mill conv Notes; 3.36 mill unlisted options. Current price: $2.12. NPAT: $25.1 mill and brokers are forecasting $51.3 mill for the current year.

2. PMM-Portman Ltd.
Website: http://www1.portman.com.au/
Shares: 175.5 mill; 5.3 mill options. Current price $ 2.43. Profit in 1st half year to June 30: $17.8 mill.
Open Briefing: http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PMM&E=ASX&N=268480


3. CHARTS:
CSM: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3Acsm&time=&freq=

PMM: http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3APMM&time=&freq=

When comparing these charts, one can see that both trends are running virtually parallell.

Remarks: CSM has taken a stake of 14.8% in PMM.

If there is a merger or takeover, then the resulting product will be a Mining House.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

Ramping again Gerry

[stolwyk]

CONSMIN’S MANGANESE EXPLORATION
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=277502

[marcer]

Well 4 months down the track and this one has found some resistance around the 2.20 mark. Worth watching closely at the moment to see if it is time to sell (if prices fall below 22 day MA, or if they break out again it could be time to buy more.

[stolwyk]

Expands Manganese Production Further

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=278029


Gerry

[stolwyk]

TIR announcement re Update on Activities:

MUNDA JOINT VENTURE WITH CSM ( pages 4 and 5):

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=278532






$2.51 (+ 4 cents)

Gerry

[stolwyk]

THIS ITEM WAS PRIOR TO THE JOINT VENTURE WITH CSM:

25 Oct-From TIR:

"Munda
In early October 2004, Titan announced the purchase of tenure and gold rights to the Munda lease M15/87 from Reliance Mining Ltd. This purchase secures tenure over Munda and allows Titan to expedite nickel exploration on this tenement unencumbered by complex and potentially unworkable agreements.

Titan will commence a drilling program to test for extensions to the nickel sulphide mineralisation and to define limits to the existing shoots once settlement over the purchase is complete.

A more regional drilling program will also be carried out to test the basal contact for nickel sulphide mineralisation between Munda and the Mt Edwards nickel mine (historic production 955,000t @ 2.72% Ni) some 2km to the north east.

While Titan is primarily focused on nickel sulphide
exploration, the gold mineralisation at Munda will be thoroughly reviewed and could provide significant credits during any mining development.
Munda is considered an outstanding nickel sulphide prospect.

At the time of purchase of the nickel rights WMC Resources had defined a nickel resource of 45,000t at 2.5% Ni but there are a number of significant nickel intersections not included in the resource estimate. In addition to the nickel mineralisation WMC calculated a gold resource of 571,000t @ 3.89 g/t Au for
71,600 ounces.

Significant gold intersections include 17m @ 17.65g/t, 11m @ 16.51g/t and 6m @ 26.98g/t.

The nickel and gold mineralisation are of different ages with the gold occurring in later stage shear zones which are spatially related to and at times cross cut the earlier magmatic nickel sulphides (Fig1)"

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TIR&E=ASX&N=226554

[stolwyk]

CSM ADDED TO ASX 200 INDEX.

Rose to $2.70 on the news. Now $2.60 (+9)

[soulman]

These CSM are holding on substantial profits in PMM. If they sell out on PMM, that profit could be larger than their mining operation. Probably not but still good.

[stolwyk]

Hi Soulman,

They did sell out today.

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PMM&E=ASX&N=278841

Gerry

[stolwyk]

CSM took a 6.64% stake in REM (Reliance Mining)

[stolwyk]

TAKEOVER OF REM PROPOSED

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=REM&E=ASX&N=279422


Reliance Recommends CSM Takeover Offer to Shareholders
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=REM&E=ASX&N=279421

[stolwyk]

Thanks Tenor. CSM=CNM
______________________________

evilwebby - 7 Jan'05 - 09:14 - 672 of 673

CNM are one of IC's tips of the year:


CONSOLIDATED MINERALS (CNM)


Tip of the year 2005 - 111p - Aim - In December last year, Consolidated Minerals (CM) announced an increase in output from its Woodie Woodie manganese mine to 1m tonnes per year - originally, the plan had been for an expansion to just 800,000 tonnes. That move comes on the back of strong manganese prices, driven by increased steel demand from India and China. CM has underpinned its output rises with corresponding increases in the resource base, which show that, at current output levels, production should continue for at least another 14 years - and possibly much longer.

Such certainties reassure buyers looking to guarantee long-term supplies, and have helped CM lock in forward sales for 70 per cent of planned production to customers in India, China and Europe. At present, CM supplies approximately 5 per cent of the world's manganese requirements, with demand continuing to rise. The latest output increase should be completed by the middle of 2005, and won't come a moment too soon - a big chunk of 2004's rise in output has already been gobbled up by demand from India.

Overall, production from Woodie Woodie is set to rise by 60 per cent, year on year, from 600,000 tonnes during 2004 to 1m tonnes in 2005. That output increase came at a cost of A$6.5m, with payback expected within 12 months. In fact, the steep production hike is one reason why analysts have spent much of 2004 revising their share-price targets upwards. During the year, the share price was also buoyed by strong manganese prices, but CM isn't just a manganese play.

Output has been rising at its Coobina chromite mine, too - although defining the mine's life has proved difficult, and management attention has recently been focused elsewhere. With cash from the recently announced A$71.5m sale of a stake in Australian iron-ore miner Portman Mining, CM is acquiring nickel producer Reliance Mining for a combination of A$40m in cash and 13.8m new shares. The acquisition of Reliance seriously enhances CM's nickel asset base which, as the nickel price advances, has been steadily building through the acquisition of stakes in local operators Austminex and Mithril.

However, Reliance, which is forecast to produce 5,000 tonnes of nickel for the year to June, is a different proposition altogether. These 5,000 tonnes should add A$90m in sales to CM's full-year results this year, according to broker Seymour Pierce, taking earnings up to 37A¢. In addition, there's also scope for output increases, and an annual nickel output of between 8,000 and 10,000 tonnes a year is on the cards. With substantial exploration upside added in - Reliance talks of 300,000 tonnes of in-ground nickel - the deal looks a good one.

Investors should also take note of the company's interest in the Mindy Mindy iron-ore project in Western Australia - a 50:50 joint venture with Australian peer Fortescue Metals. If that goes ahead, then broker Numis Securities estimates that the project could add as much as 55p a share to CM's net present value (the present value of the company's future net cash flows after subtracting any initial investments). At the moment, the broker has valued Mindy Mindy at A$60m - but if, as hoped, production begins in 2007, then the upside could be considerable.

Admittedly, CM's shares aren't widely traded in the UK, but plenty of big-name institutions hold stakes, including ANZ, JP Morgan, Westpac, UBS and Credit Suisse First Boston
It's also worth noting that, with considerable dependence on Chinese markets, a slowdown there could be detrimental. However, that's not a huge worry given China's robust track record for absorbing the world's resources. Add CM's prospects to an impressive dividend yield and an undemanding prospective share-price rating, and investors can expect the shares, which have soared during 2004, to keep on rising for a while yet.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Still ramping Gerry it seems like the only way to get you to stop is to call in the grim reaper

[marcer]

Still looking good. Seems as though today it is moving away from the recent consolidation around 2.60 and up to higher levels.

Happy holder until this uptrend is broken.

[stolwyk]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=280286

"Exploration properties near Kambalda. Production at Beta Hunt commenced in December 2003 and ramped
up to 400 nickel tonnes per month during 2004. Recent exploration has doubled the global resource base at
Beta Hunt and the nearby East Alpha Project to 1.3 million tonnes at 4% for 54,000 contained nickel tonnes".


"Exploration expenditure for the quarter totaled $2,000,538".

"At the end of the quarter, the issued share capital of Consolidated Minerals comprised 182,331,118 fully paid
shares, 9,938,780 listed convertible notes and 2,591,000 unlisted options".

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Price: $2.74 (+13)

[stolwyk]

Price $3.

Chart:
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3Acsm&time=&freq=

STO=90.8 Sofar, good demand for this stock. (260,000 sold)

[stolwyk]

Price: $3.09

CATCHING THE BIG FISH.

The takeover of REM by the Mining House CSM has been briefly referred to previously. I like to discuss it in detail:
CSM's ann: Consmin Announces Recommended T/O Offer for REM:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=REM&E=ASX&N=279422


1. COST OF TAKEOVER.
REM had 98 mill shares, 22 mill conv notes, 12.3 mill pref shares and some Management options.
Extract:
"Based on Reliance’s register immediately prior to this announcement, the total consideration for the ordinary shares and convertible notes not currently owned by Consolidated together with unlisted preference shares and options is $39.90 million in cash and 13.82 million shares.

Using the $2.65 volume weighted average price for Consolidated shares in the three trading days prior to the announcement, this represents a total consideration of $76.52 million for the securities subject to the offer (including the unlisted securities)".

We need to add some $3.35 mill cash to account for the 6.84% bought previously, so the total cost of the REM takeover is $43.35 mill cash and 13.82 mill shares. The deal will be internally financed.

2. ASSETS
Production of nickel is increasing to 5000 tonnes/year while another 4000 tonnes will be added from East Alpha, a total of 9000 tonnes /year before long:

"The drilling program at East Alpha was aimed at bringing the area into production as soon as possible, potentially increasing nickel production from the complex to 8-10,000 tonnes per annum from a mine complex resource of 54,000 tonnes, including inferred tonnage.

+ + + Currently, nickel is $US6.48 or $A8.415 (0.77), so the In Situ resource of 54,000 tonnes is worth about $A999.77 mill, say $A1 bill.

+ + + If they mined 10,000 tonnes per year, then the Profit before tax would be approx. $76.56 mill. (Total cost of about $A3/lb), so paying $43.35 mill cash (See item 1) is very good business.

BUT THAT IS NOT ALL:
Extract: "In addition to East Alpha, the Project has numerous other highly ranked exploration targets close to current infrastructure that offer short and long term growth opportunities. Many of these targets already have ore grade intercepts.

In the same area, Reliance controls the nickel rights over the East Cooee, Fisher, Foster and Silver Lake deposits, which have the potential to take Reliance up to 300,000 nickel tonnes of discovery upside".

+ + + So, there is a probability of another 300,000 tonnes of nickel In Situ, worth some $A5.554 bill.

No wonder that CSM was interested!

There is also some gold still and mining of this is to start before June 30, 2005.

CONCLUSION: THE CSM MINING HOUSE CERTAINLY MAY HAVE HOOKED A BIG ONE THIS TIME.

A PERFECT FIT AND DEVELOPMENT CAN BE FINANCED FROM THE CASHFLOW OF EXISTING PROJECTS.

CSM HAS YEARS OF MINING AHEAD OF IT. I won't be surprised if they increased the nickel output to 15,000-20,000 tonnes as soon as possible.


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.
Calculations subject to audit. Takeover is subject to approval.

[stolwyk]

MEDIA RELEASE 25 JANUARY 2005
CONSMIN $41.0 MILLION FIRST HALF PROFIT

Consolidated Minerals Ltd (ASX: CSM, AIM: CNM, FSE: CMN) today announced a strong increase in first half unaudited net profit after tax to $41.0 million, including a $19 million after tax profit on the sale of its stake in iron ore producer Portman Limited.

Directors have recommended a fully franked 6.00 cent interim dividend, double last year’s 3.00 cent interim dividend.
Excluding the profit on the sale of the Portman stake, underlying first-half earnings increased by 203% with a record operating profit after tax of $22.0 million ($7.25 million previously) reflecting the continued strength of Consolidated’s manganese and chromite businesses.

The profit lays the foundation for a very strong full-year result, underpinned by traditionally stronger second-half operating conditions and increased prices following the forthcoming iron ore price settlement.

Sales revenue for the first half rose by 61% to $85.6 million, reflecting continued strong demand and
price increases for the Company’s high-grade manganese (a key input to the global steel industry) and
ongoing strength in the chromite ore market (a key input to the stainless steel industry).

Managing Director Michael Kiernan said the first-half result highlighted the underlying strength and
strong cash generation of Consolidated’s core businesses with a threefold increase in net operating
profit excluding the one-off gain from the sale of its Portman stake.

“The first half saw achievements in a range of areas including further exploration success at Woodie
Woodie, further growth of our international customer base and significant progress in our nickel growth strategy,” Kiernan said. “Consolidated has been able to leverage off the current strong commodities cycle in carbon steel materials to lay the foundations for a very strong growth outlook.”

Consolidated’s interim results are included in its Bidder’s Statement for nickel producer Reliance Mining Limited (ASX: REM), which will be lodged with the ASIC and ASX shortly and despatched to Reliance shareholders.

The proposed Reliance acquisition is expected to form the core of a newly established nickel business unit, with immediate production in the world-class Kambalda nickel region of Western Australia through the Beta-Hunt mine.

POSITIVE SECOND HALF OUTLOOK
Kiernan said the financial outlook for the second half was very positive, reflecting traditionally stronger second-half trading conditions combined with increasing manganese production at Woodie Woodie and expected further price increases.

“We will see the positive impact of increased manganese output following completion of the Woodie
Woodie expansion and our recent decision to increase production to a new long-term level of 1mtpa
by mid-year,” Kiernan said.

“In addition, manganese is expected to achieve a price increase of similar magnitude to the benchmark iron ore price for the fiscal year from April 1 due to finalised shortly.”

Most analysts have forecast a price increase for iron ore of up to 35%, following last year’s 18.62%
increase. Consolidated has now committed or allocated all of its 2005 manganese ore production and
recently reported that prices for first quarter 2005 shipments had been fixed at increased levels.
ENDS



Released by: On behalf of:
Jan Hope / Nicholas Read Michael Kiernan, Managing Director Jan Hope & Partners Consolidated Minerals Limited
Telephone: (+61-8) 9388 1474 Telephone: (+61-8) 9321-3633
www.consminerals.com.au

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

BACKGROUND INFORMATION – CONSOLIDATED MINERALS LIMITED
Consolidated Minerals is a diversified, ASX S&P 200 Australian-based resource group (Code: CSM)
with a strong growth focus in the carbon steel materials business.

The Company is also listed on the Alternative Investment Market (AIM) of the London Stock Exchange (Code: CNM) and the Frankfurt
Stock Exchange (FSE) (Code: CMN).
Consolidated has a sound profit base founded on its successful West Austral

[stolwyk]

Guided Profit forecast for year to 30 June, 2005.

1. WITHOUT REM TAKEOVER:

Consider a normal profit of $53 mill for this year. Shares: 189 mill. E/S 28 cents. Price: $3.05. Dividend: 15 cents. Net Div yield: 4.9

Prospective P/E: 10.9 IMHO that is not high for a company with very diversified strategic commodities.

That compares very favourably with a Coal Co. EXL's prospective P/E of 17+

Good reports tend to come early: the interim was on 27 Febr. last year.

_______________________________

2. AFTER ACQUISITION OF REM:

Should the takeover of REM go ahead, then we can expect some additional nickel production from REM:

In that case we were looking earlier at E/S of 36.5 cents for the year compared with an investment house calculation of 37 cents.

Let us assume that after heavy expenditure on exploration, it is 33 cents instead, (Shares will increase to about 194 mill).

Current price: $3.05, setting up a prospective P/E of 9.25 which compares very favourably with EXL's 17+.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.
Some profit being taken. Current price: $3.02

[stolwyk]

HOW IMPORTANT IS IRON ORE TO CSM?

Very, according to an overseas broker:

Quote:
"Investors should also take note of the company's interest in the Mindy Mindy iron-ore project in Western Australia - a 50:50 joint venture with Australian peer Fortescue Metals.

If that goes ahead, then broker Numis Securities estimates that the project could add as much as 55p a share to CM's net present value (the present value of the company's future net cash flows after subtracting any initial investments). At the moment, the broker has valued Mindy Mindy at A$60m - but if, as hoped, production begins in 2007, then the upside could be considerable".
_______________________________

And this from CSM's website:
MINDY MINDY IRON ORE BRIEFING
Last updated Aug. 2004.

LOCATION
The property is located approximately 60 km NW of the iron ore town of Newman in the Pilbara region of Western Australia. Its northern boundary is within about 15 kilometres of an existing railway.

A Tertiary age (about 38 million years ago) channel iron ore deposit (CID) occurs in Mindy Mindy Creek either buried or as a series of low mesas. The mesas are eroded parts of a once extensive channel iron ore deposit that still lies below the valley floor of the northern part of the present Mindy Mindy Creek. Air photography interpretations indicate that Mindy Mindy Creek may in the past have been part of the ancient Yandicoogina-Marillana drainage system.

Currently, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are producing pisolite iron ore from the Yandicoogina-Marillana (“Yandi”) channel iron ore deposit, which lies at its nearest about 15km to the west of Mindy Mindy.

The Yandi deposit is part of a continuous, high grade, medium phosphorous, pisolitic, goethitic body, which trends east and is about 80km long. The ore fills meandering palaeochannels in the area and are up to 600m wide and about 45m in thickness.

Average composition of the Yandi Channel Iron Deposit is approximately 58% Fe, 0.05% P, 4.8% SiO2 and 1.4% Al2O3.

CIDs have their origin as iron-rich sedimentary deposits which infilled ancient river channels. These palaeochannels were incised into an old land surface 40-50 million years ago. The primary source of the iron-bearing sediments was iron-rich laterite derived from Brockman Formation rocks, which was then eroded and transported into the channels. These sediments were subsequently enriched and cemented by iron-bearing groundwaters under sluggish river flow conditions.

Consolidated Minerals carried out detailed work including mapping and a 2-staged RC drilling programme in 2003 in the northern part of the tenement group where the bulk of the potential CID tonnage is believed to occur.

The purpose of the work was to delineate the extent, tonnage and grade of the CID at Mindy Mindy. The drilling was completed in mid November and comprised a total of 61 RC holes for 2,491m on a nominal configuration of 100m hole x 800m drill line separations.

Assay results and drill hole logging confirm the first stage interpretation that the CID extends continuously over about 12km of palaeodrainage, downstream north-westerly from prominent, pisolitic iron-bearing mesas. Iron grades are comparable to those at the Yandicoogina-Marillana channel iron deposits.

The deposit varies in thickness up to 32 metres, averaging 16 metres and varies between 200 - 370 metres in width. Clay overburden averages 25 m in thickness and is likely to be mined cheaply.

Further drilling will take place in 2004 and it is anticipated that drill results will be available early next year and should enable estimation of the resource grade and tonnage for the deposit to a JORC Inferred or Indicated Resource status.

The Mindy Mindy project is under a joint venture arrangement with Fortescue Metals Group Limited, with Fortescue holding a 50% interest in the Mindy Mindy project and is jointly funding the evaluation, exploration and development of the project.

The Joint Venture will have access to any rail and port infrastructure developed by Fortescue in the East P

[stolwyk]

The market sofar has successfully overcome that topping, consolidated and has moved on ($3.14 (+5))

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/javachart/javachart.asp?symb=au%3Acsm&time=&freq=


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[stolwyk]

Takeover documents were sent to REM on 1 Febr.

The market did well and has started another leg up (the last 2 were 60 cents each).

+18 to $3.45 If it reaches $3.65, then the REM Holders have gained 10 cents


Gerry

[stolwyk]

Extract from Document sent to Shareholders.

SECTION 1: LETTER FROM THE CHAIRMAN OF RELIANCE
4 February 2005
Dear Shareholder and/or Noteholder
On 5 January 2005 Consolidated Minerals Limited, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Consolidated Nickel Pty Ltd, announced a takeover offer for Reliance Mining Limited.

As at 3 February 2005, Consolidated Nickel’s offer valued each Reliance Share and Reliance Convertible Note at 62.7 cents.
We have made the recommendation to accept the Offer based on a number of factors, which are detailed in Section 2 of this Statement. These include:

the price being offered by Consolidated Nickel represents a significant premium to the market price of Reliance Shares (48.0%) and Reliance Convertible Notes (37.5%) before the Offer
was announced;

Deloitte, the independent expert commissioned by the Reliance directors to report to Shareholders and Noteholders on the Offer, has concluded that the Offer is fair and reasonable to both Shareholders and Noteholders. A copy of Deloitte’s report is set out in
Annexure “A” to this Statement;

a strategic benefit arising from combining the Reliance nickel assets with the Consolidated Minerals business model which targets the steel and stainless steel markets;

a reduction in the risks associated with investing in a predominantly single commodity entity having relatively high gearing levels;
the scrip component of the Offer allows participation in a significant entity supplying a range of key inputs to steel producers and particularly the growing Chinese market;

the cash component of the Offer locks in a premium at a time when nickel prices are at a 10 year high;

Reliance Share and Reliance Convertible Note prices and liquidity may fall if the Offer is unsuccessful; and the potential for substantial dilution of existing shareholders if the exploration and
development of Reliance’s nickel assets were financed by equity capital or farm-out.

For the reasons outlined above, and in the absence of a superior offer, Reliance’s directors unanimously recommend that you accept the Offer and intend to accept the Offer in respect of their
own Reliance Shares and Reliance Convertible Notes.
When assessing whether or not to accept the Offer you should be aware that the Offer is still subject to a number of conditions, including a condition that Consolidated Nickel achieve a minimum holding
of 90% of the Reliance Shares and 90% of the Reliance Convertible Notes.

To accept the Offer, you should follow the instructions in the Bidder’s Statement carefully. The Offer is due to close on 8 March 2005.
If you have any questions in relation to your shareholding or noteholding, I would encourage you to contact your legal and financial adviser without delay or call the Shareholder Information Line on (08) 9382 8300 (for Australian callers) or +61 8 9382 8300 (for international callers).
Yours sincerely
ROBERT J. PETT
Chairman

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Comment: MTX, the 8% holder sold 5.4 mill shares. As things stand now CSM may get close to 100%; however, they do need 90%.

In any case, anybody not accepting will get locked in.
__________________________________________

From REM: Gold Projects Update - West Ballarat & Andorinhas:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=REM&E=ASX&N=281754

[stolwyk]

Consmin Declares Reliance T/O Offer Unconditional

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=REM&E=ASX&N=282771

[stolwyk]

http://www.minesite.com/storyFull.php?storySeq=596

Date: February 24, 2005

Consolidated Minerals Has A Future To Equal Its Past.

Over the past five years there have only been a handful of Australian companies which have grown from minnows to mid tier without being snatched by a foreign acquisitor en route. Oxiana and Consolidated Minerals stand out as prime examples and as Owen Hegarty will be in London in a couple of weeks time, an update on Oxiana will follow his visit. In both cases it was the strength and focus of Hegarty and Michael Kiernan that drew the attention of Minews to the companies. Oxiana acquired control of the Sepon gold-copper project in Laos from Rio Tinto in the days when overseas ventures were virtually ignored by Australian investors, and Michael Kiernan took over a bombed -out manganese producer in Western Australia at virtually the same time.

The fact that Kiernan is now talking about creating a A$1billion resource business through the combination of nickel, manganese and chromite mining activities suggests that further acquisitions may follow Reliance Mining into the ConsMins fold. Michael Kiernan has built a great reputation for delivering on his forecasts and his saying of 'dig and deliver' describes his straight-talking approach to the mining industry. He originally became interested in the Woodie Woodie manganese operation because his private company was a major creditor for its mining and transport contract work when the administrators were called in in 1997. There is not much he does not know about the costings and efficiencies of transporting bulk materials and it is on this that Consolidated Minerals has been built.

During last year Kiernan took a significant stake in Portman, the Australian iron ore producer. At one time it looked as if he might follow up with a bid, but in the end took a handsome profit of A$25 million and turned his attention to nickel via the agreed acquisition of Reliance Mining . If he had taken over Portman it would have been fascinating to watch the impact of his management style taking effect. “Like a hot knife through butter” is how one analyst described his view of it. The differences in style were made clear to UK investors by the approaches adopted by both companies to their listings on AIM. Portman clearly expected a new generation of shareholders to land in its lap without having to make any effort. It did not happen, so the company whinged that its AIM listing was a waste of time and eventually cancelled it. Kiernan really worked at it during frequent visits and within a year of listing 30 per cent of the equity of his company was in UK hands. He also had the strength of mind last year to withdraw from a bid for Titan Resources and no one needs reminding what happened to Titan a few months later.

These shareholders have not been disappointed as Consolidated Minerals had the wind behind it last year with demand and prices for manganese and chromite rising steadily from the Chinese steel industry. Now it has an additional income stream from Reliance which is forecast to produce around 5,000 tonnes of nickel this year from the Beta Hunt mine with 10,000 tonnes/year possible through the further development of the East Alpha mine by end-2006. In the meantime the company continues to report positive news on its manganese and chromite mining operations at Woodie Woodie and Coobina. Both mines have significantly extended their reserves and resources and mine lives. The increase is particularly important for the manganese operation which is ramping up to 1million tonnes/year of manganese ore production with a 60 per cent expansion which is reported to be both on time and on budget.

In the first half of the current year Consolidated Minerals made an unaudited net profit after tax of A$41 million. Subtracting the after tax profit on Portman leaves A$22 million which is a long way north of the A$2.3 million achieved by the Woodie Woodie operation in its first full year to end June 2000 under Michael Kiernan’s management. Compare it with last

[stolwyk]

The largest iron ore producer negotiated a 71.5% price rise in negotiations with the Japanese.

CSM has iron ore and questions are being asked whether their manganese and chrome exports will also be subject to some price increase. Part of any rise is used to defray increased shipping costs.

The acceptances of CMS' offer by REM shareholders are making good progress:
Latest:
Ords: 63.32%
Pref: 100%
Options: 57.9%
Convert. notes: 56.1%

It is unconditional but those REM shareholders who accept by March 8 will receive a 6 cent div on the CSM shares.

Current CSM price: $3.57 (+33 cts). Will there be some retracement?

Gerry

[stolwyk]

Half year Report and Accounts:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=283268

[stolwyk]

From UKshareguy:
Upgrade to Numis buy note -

CONSOLIDATED MINERALS* (143.5p) - BUY - Target Price 181p - Higher manganese and chromite prices drive valuations higher

We are upgrading our target price valuation for Consolidated Minerals higher today through a series of price increases for manganese and chromite ores.
We have also raised our chromite ore price by 60% for 2006 and by 9% for 2005 from what were previously considered reasonable but slightly cautious levels.

Consolidated Minerals is better placed to benefit from the price increases seen in the market for steel related raw materials than many other producers as it sells around three quarters of its manganese on quarterly pricing with only 25% of manganese sold on a six-month price reset.

Today's news that Nippon Steel has increased prices by 63% is effectively a catch-up with the spot market and in our view may still lag the reality of spot market pricing in this area. We have also increased our longer-term chromite ore pricing assumption by 12.5% which further adds to our figures.

Net profit 2004A £9.7m, 2005e £27m, 2006e £48m

EPS 2004A 5.7p, 2005e 11.9p, 2006e 20.6p

PE 2004A 18x 2005e 9x, 2006e 5x

*Numis acts as broker to Consolidated Minerals

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

COMMENT:
Thanks for that. Using that data:

Guided forecast for year starting July 2006.
Based on UK=$A1.92, the NPAT could be $A92 mill, E/S of 42.4 cents and a prospective P/E of 8.3.

That P/E is low IMHO.

Based on 217 mill shares including the conv notes and the shares arising from the REM takeover.


Current price $3.53

Dividend could be say 21 cents with a prospective net div yield of 5.94%.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.
Subject to audit.

[stolwyk]

CONSMIN APPOINTS SENIOR ANGLO EXECUTIVE
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=284286

[stolwyk]

REM-GAME IS OVER.

CSM holds 92.5% of REM ords. REM will be delisted in due course. Any remaining REM shares can be dealt with.

CSM has 100 % prefs

CSM has 91.8% of conv notes

There are some REM manag. options to deal with, I believe.

Because some didn't take up CSM's offer, CSM stands to gain some $0.49 mill, because it doesn't have to pay dividends to these people.

The takeover of REM has been virtually completed.


CSM share price: $3.76 (+13)


Gerry

[stolwyk]

MOPPING UP

CSM holds 95% of REM ords, 100% of Prefs, 93% of Convert notes.

CSM had a contract with REM Option holders and Pref. shares and this is legally set out in this document:

A total of 2.939 mill shares wil be issued to these 2 groups:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=284575

CSM: $3.97

[stolwyk]

To Escalate Exploration/Development-East Alpha Nickel Proj:

ASX / MEDIA RELEASE 29 MARCH 2005
CONSMIN TO ESCALATE EXPLORATION & DEVELOPMENT AT
EAST ALPHA NICKEL PROJECT

Consolidated Minerals Limited (ASX: CSM, AIM: CNM, FSE: CMN) (“Consolidated”) today announced that, following the success of its takeover offer for West Australian nickel producer,
Reliance Mining Limited, it had committed to spend A$10.0 million to the end of calendar 2005 to escalate exploration and development activities at the East Alpha nickel project near Kambalda.
East Alpha is adjacent to the producing Beta Hunt nickel mine where production for the year to 30 June is forecast at 5,000 nickel tonnes. Recent exploration has already doubled the global resource at
Beta Hunt and East Alpha to 1.3 million tonnes at 4% nickel for 54,000 contained nickel tonnes.

A recently completed prefeasibility study on East Alpha indicated its potential to produce 4–5,000 tonnes of nickel per annum.
The program at East Alpha includes development of an 800 metre exploration drive east from the Beta Hunt mine to access the top levels of the East Alpha orebody. This will provide a platform for
extensive underground drilling designed to provide information for further resource definition and mine planning optimisation.

Two surface diamond drills will also carry a program of infill drilling at the northern end of the East Alpha orebody where a number of encouraging intersections have already been encountered.


Consolidated Minerals Managing Director, Michael Kiernan said the program would considerably accelerate the development of the East Alpha orebody where first production would be scheduled for
the third quarter of 2006.

“Our intention in acquiring Reliance was always to unlock the considerable upside potential of the company’s excellent nickel assets and we are moving rapidly to put this into effect with nickel
production expected to double in the medium term” he said. “We also believe the exploration program planned will increase the global resource substantially.”

“With the manganese market remaining very strong together with our plant expansion to 1m tonnes and the demand for chromite having increased prices by around an additional 20% for the second
quarter, we consider we will continue with a strong performance as we move to assimilate the Reliance acquisition and become a nickel producer,” he added.
ENDS

Released by: On behalf of:
Jan Hope / Nicholas Read Michael Kiernan, Managing Director
Jan Hope & Partners Consolidated Minerals Limited
Telephone: (+61-8) 9388 1474 Telephone: (+61-8) 9321-3633
www.consminerals.com.au

[dingdong]

O Stolwykos, God of Ramping, since you didn't post the CSM price on your latest post I presume the price went down today.

A check indicated it sure went down today, and down 15% since your last post.

So I have done the worthy thing by adding the latest price on my post so you don't have to do any editing.

CSM 337 (-13)

[stolwyk]

Thanks for that. The lower price may perhaps entice some buyers.

Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[dingdong]

Indeed O Stolwykos. I am interested in a resource hold to add to my dung empire.

It was your omission of the price which "coincidentally" happened to plummet that triggered my interest.

[stolwyk]

Actually, I did mention the lower price on H/C.

Gerry Trying to cover up Now you Know most of posters do not worry about ramper central.

[stolwyk]

Buyback.

Current # 206.9 mill shares:

Maximum buyback: 10.34 mill- Unlimited duration

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=286131

[dingdong]

O Stolwykos it is amazing how a rapid buyback can prop up a stock on a weak day. CSM 350 (+13)

[msgoldenhair]

well CSM held up well yesterday finishing on its high...open today looks to be higher which is favourable too

[dingdong]

O Stolwykos why did CSM plunge 18 cents today on no news when all other resource stocks were up?

[dingdong]

O Stolwykos God of Ramping your silence is deafening.

[dingdong]

Thanks for your comments Stolwykos, your silence says more about CSM's prospects than words ever could.

[stolwyk]

Dividend reinvestment plan:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=287117


OPEN BRIEFING:
http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=287113

$3.55

[dingdong]

O Stolwykos I thought you would be gyrating from your zimmer frame now that CSM is moving up again.

Or did you sell last week?

[dingdong]

O Stolwykos your silence is deafening, looks like you sold out at the wrong time again otherwise we would be hearing our daily CSM ramp.

[dingdong]

Diversified resource stocks are definitely a better investment than GOLD, eh Stolwykos? CSM up 5% today, NCM down 11% with more to come.

[stolwyk]

A small 0.72 mill share buyback and little news except CSM is close to its all time high again: it rose 19 to $4.16


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.

[dingdong]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

A small 0.72 mill share buyback and little news except CSM is close to its all time high again: it rose 19 to $4.16


Gerry
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks.




Ahh, the resumption of the daily ramp. That can only mean that Stolwykos has bought back in (at above $4) - after selling a couple of months ago at $3.30 (when the ramping stopped).

That's the spirit, O Stolwykos. Sell low, buy high.

[stolwyk]

Major Nickel Resource Upgrade at Kambalda

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=294211

[stolwyk]

Fourth Quarter Activities Report

Extract:
Corporate
• $40.8 million institutional placement completed comprising 10.2 million shares at $4.00 per share to
enhance the Company’s financial position and its ability to participate in future project opportunities.
• Option agreement with Titan Resources Limited to earn a 50% interest in the Armstrong nickel project,
located near the Company’s Kambalda nickel operations. A program of due diligence involving
comprehensive metallurgical test work and a detailed economic assessment is underway.
• 5.94% shareholding acquired in ASX-listed Jabiru Metals Limited, which is developing the Jaguar copperzinc
project in Western Australia’s Northeastern Goldfields".

[tricha]

Makes sense, rumour has it after IGO and if they get that, they will get Matrix as well or maybe just Matrix[?][?][?]

[stolwyk]

CSM doesn't sit still for long; they do need more immediate nickel substance.


Gerry

[stolwyk]

Media Release - Jabiru Metals Investment

CONSMIN ANNOUNCES STRATEGIC MOVE INTO
COPPER
Consolidated Minerals Limited (ASX: CSM, AIM: CNM, FSE: CMN) today announced a strategic entry to the copper business as the final plank in the diversification of its commodity and revenue base through a 19.9% investment in and partnership with emerging ASX-listed copper producer, Jabiru Metals Limited (ASX: JML).

Consolidated said it had acquired a 19.9% stake in Jabiru following the purchase today of 24.3 million shares from Jabiru’s major shareholder, Tanami Gold NL, adding to an existing 5.94% stake.

Consolidated’s General Manager-Technical Services, Rodney Baxter, will join the Jabiru Board as a non executive director. Mr Baxter, a former senior Anglo American business development executive, will provide strategic input into the funding and imminent development of Jabiru’s Jaguar copper-zinc project in Western Australia.

The Jaguar Project is located near the historic Teutonic Bore base metals mine near Leonora in Western Australia’s Northeastern Goldfields, and comprises an Ore Reserve of 1.6 million tonnes grading 3.07% copper, 11.7% zinc, 0.72% lead and 120 g/t silver.
The $55 million Jaguar development is scheduled to commence this month, involving an 18-month decline development to access the orebody.

The project is forecast to produce 8-10,000tpa of copper concentrate, 20-25,000tpa of zinc concentrate and 800,000ozpa of silver in concentrate over a 5-year mine life, based on an ore
milling rate of 365,000tpa.

Managing Director Michael Kiernan said the investment represented a modest but attractive entry to the copper business, underpinned by a robust development project combined with significant exploration upside including some 25km of the highly prospective Teutonic Bore/Jaguar stratigraphic package.

Jabiru’s Managing Director Gary Comb said he was very pleased to have secured a major, supportive shareholder with the technical and financial resources to provide significant input and support for the Company as it embarked on development of the Jaguar Project. “Our focus moving forward will be to launch the development of Jaguar in
parallel with an intensified exploration program, with the objective of doubling the Jaguar mine life to 10 years,” he said.

Kiernan said copper represented an attractive growth commodity which, like Consolidated’s existing portfolio of manganese, chromite, nickel and iron ore, had excellent long-term demand fundamentals underpinned by the strong demand of the growing middle class in China.

“This represents the final step in Consolidated’s strategy to broaden our commodity and revenue base and, as with previous moves into chromite, iron ore and nickel, we have sought low-cost, low-risk entry points while focusing on developing these businesses primarily out of operating cash flow,” he said.

“The strength of our existing steel-related businesses reflects the growth of the Chinese economy and, in particular, the growing affluence of the Chinese middle class, which has created enormous demand for Western-style commodities and lifestyle,” Kiernan said. “We are now seeing the next important phenomenon, namely a wave of urbanisation that will enhance the demand pull for construction-related commodities – including both nickel, which is used in stainless steel, and copper.

“Ultimately, nickel and copper production will account for 50-60% of Consolidated’s revenue as the company grows, and these business units will enhance our continued earnings per share growth into the future,” he added.

[stolwyk]

The Australian
Copper buy steels ConsMin for London
Andrew Trounson
August 02, 2005
DIVERSIFIED miner Consolidated Minerals is positioned to pursue a listing on the London Stock Exchange next year after yesterday completing its commodity diversification strategy by buying into emerging West Australian copper producer Jabiru.

ConsMin has raised its near 6 per cent stake in Jabiru to 19.9 per cent after completing the buyout of major Jabiru shareholder Tanami Gold, which wants to focus on developing its Coyote gold project in Western Australia.

ConsMin managing director Michael Kiernan said the deal was the "final step" to broaden the company's commodity and revenue base, leaving the company now exposed to its core manganese and chromite operations, as well as emerging businesses in nickel, iron ore and now copper.

Mr Keirnan said the company now had the right assets to underpin a $1 billion market capitalisation, which is his target before migrating the company's listing on London's Alternative Investment Market onto the larger LSE.

A listing on the LSE would bring ConsMin greater exposure to institutional and pension fund investors. ConsMin shares ended yesterday unchanged at $4.08, valuing it at $885 million.

ConsMin has bought 24.3 million Jabiru shares at 25c each for a total investment of $6.08 million, having acquired for $1.25 million its initial stake from Tanami last month at the same price.

With ConsMin backing its Jaguar copper and zinc development in Western Australia, Jabiru is now aiming to complete a financing package for the $55 million development before the end of the month.

First production is expected in the first half of 2007. The Jaguar mine is forecast to produce up to 10,000 tonnes of copper concentrate, 25,000 tonnes of zinc concentrate and 800,000 ounces of silver a year -- for five years, though ConsMin is hoping further exploration will double the mine's life.

Consmin this year acquired junior nickel miner Reliance and has a 19.7 per cent stake in nickel explorer Mithril Resources.

It tried unsuccessfully earlier this year to merge with iron ore miner Portman, but continues to have an iron ore joint venture with Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metal.

Mr Kiernan said the focus now was on developing and further exploring the asset base.

"It doesn't preclude acquisitions but certainly our focus is really to develop what we have," he said.

[stolwyk]

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=296229

CONSMIN DELIVERS RECORD $70.3 MILLION PROFIT

Consolidated Minerals Limited (ASX: CSM, AIM: CNM, FSE: CMN) today announced a record $70.3 million
unaudited annual net profit after tax, with its trading profit of $51 million doubling for the third year in a row.

Directors have recommended a fully franked 12.00 cent final dividend, lifting the full-year payout to 18.00 cents
(2004: 8 cents).

The record earnings result – which included a $19 million after tax profit on the sale of Consolidated’s stake in Portman Limited – was achieved on a 62% increase in sales revenue to $202.4 million (2004: $124.6 million) and equated to an after tax earnings per share of 37.4 cents. This underpinned a 49% return on equity for the year.

Managing Director Michael Kiernan said the result highlighted the strength of Consolidated’s core manganese and chromite businesses, with the excellent performance underlining the continuing demand for steel and stainless steel-related minerals driven by the world’s high-growth economies of China and Eastern Europe.

Operating cash flow for the year increased to $87.1 million (2004: $45.3 million), while net gearing at the financial year-end was zero. The Company currently has $102 million in cash and receivables, providing a strong platform for its continued growth and diversification.

“Excluding the profit on the sale of the Portman stake, our trading profit has doubled for the third year in a row
enabling us to more than double the final payout to our shareholders,” Kiernan said.

Consolidated’s full year financial performance was based on steady manganese and chromite production, together with a small revenue contribution from its newly acquired Kambalda nickel operations in Western Australia.

Fullyear manganese high-grade ore production was 606,944 tonnes (2004: 606,000 tonnes) and chromite production was 241,756 tonnes (2004: 230,000 tonnes).

“The strong cash generation of our core businesses at this time of record demand for steel-related commodities has enabled Consolidated to diversify and broaden our commodity and revenue base through the acquisition of Reliance Nickel, which was completed in March this year, and, more recently, through our entry to the copper business,” Kiernan said.

OUTLOOK
Following the recently completed expansion of its manganese operations to 1mtpa and growth strategy in place for its nickel division, Consolidated said its outlook for the 2005/06 financial year was for continued profit growth.

“We continue to see very high levels of demand for steel-related raw materials in China, which is now being
complemented by a wave of urbanisation and levels of construction not seen since the post-war reconstruction era in Europe and Japan,” he said.

“Nickel and copper provide exposure to this secondary, consumer-driven wave of growth in China, building on the strong base of our steel-related commodity businesses.”
Kiernan said Consolidated’s focus moving forward would be the continued optimisation of its core business units
in parallel with aggressive growth, particularly of its nickel business through an accelerated exploration and
development program at the Reliance Nickel operations in Kambalda.

“Our immediate focus is to double production from the Beta Hunt-East Alpha Complex to 10,000tpa, while at the same time establishing a regional resource base sufficient to justify construction of our own nickel concentrator,” he said.

“Our two-year strategic objective is to increase nickel production to a level of 15-20,000tpa.”
“The production and revenue profile of Consolidated will continue to diversify substantially in the coming year, as nickel production increases, helping to underpin continued solid earnings per share growth into the future,” he added.

www.consminerals.com.au
___________________________

BACKGROUND INFORMATION
Consolidated Minerals is a diversified, ASX S&P 200 Australian-based resource group (Code: CSM) with a strong growth focus as a supplier o

[stolwyk]

Open Briefing.Cons Minerals.Profit Analysis & Outlook

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=296230

Extract:
For the year ended June 30 2005, our final dividend will be 12 cents fully franked bringing the total payout for the year to 18 cents per share fully franked.

Going forward, we have budgeted for a payout ratio of 60%, prompted by the significant cash flow generated from our operations after meeting our expenditure obligations.

When you look at future earnings per share there is a crossover point where, if the share price moves to a certain level, it is of greater benefit for the remaining
shareholders for us to buy back and cancel the shares.

"We’ll probably spend in the order of $10 million on exploration in 2006. From this I am confident we’ll have contained nickel approaching 125,000 tonnes by
this time next year.

Following our past exploration success, it’s more than probable that over the next three years we could add a further 100,000 tonnes". Our plan is to identify a resource of 200,000 to 250,000 tonnes of contained nickel within the next few years".

[tricha]

Shes a great company Stolwyk :)

Do not own any myself, notice a lack of gold, much have something to do with the great profit.[:p]

Reading between the lines I'll hang onto my TIR shares, ( CSM own 19.95% and are assessing the Armstrong mine) my guess is they will buy the lot for their future concentrator project.

They might become a target themselves from BHP, if they are going to install a concentrator in their patch.

“Our immediate focus is to double production from the Beta Hunt-East Alpha Complex to 10,000tpa, while at the same time establishing a regional resource base sufficient to justify construction of our own nickel concentrator,” he said.

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[stolwyk]

Hi Tricha,

I bet you have a few winners.


Here is the D&D Forum presentation:

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=296382

[stolwyk]

CONSOLIDATED MINERALS – COMPANY UPDATE
Consolidated Minerals Limited (ASX: CSM, AIM: CNM, FSE: CMN) today advised that its major shareholder,
Noble Resources Limited, had made a decision to divest half of its 12.4% share holding in Consolidated.

Managing Director Michael Kiernan said Noble’s decision to exit its holding directly reflected Consolidated’s success and its strong growth to date on the back of its core steel- and stainless-steel related minerals businesses.
“Noble has been a supportive, long-term shareholder since Consolidated’s recapitalisation in the late 1990s and
they have made a decision to realise the profit on their initial investment,” Kiernan said. “That is an investment
decision which every shareholder is entitled to make, and which we can not control.

“However, I would stress that the sales agency agreements and trading relationships we have with Noble as our principal sales agent into China are for life-of-mine and Noble’s decision to sell its shares has absolutely no operational impact on Consolidated,” he said.

“From a marketing perspective, we will continue to have a very
strong ongoing relationship with Noble, and we look forward to continuing to enjoy the benefits of being a key supplier of steel-related raw materials to the rapidly growing Chinese economy.”
Kiernan said the sale of Noble’s shares would create additional liquidity in the market for Consolidated’s shares,providing an opportunity for new institutional and retail shareholders to join the share register.

“Consolidated has had a healthy turnover of major institutional shareholders at different stages of its growth, with a group of major Australian institutions participating in a recent share placement,” he said. “We continue to have significant levels of investment interest from institutions both in Australia and internationally, particularly in the Asian region.

“The Company has entered a new phase of growth with the acquisition of the Reliance Nickel operations at Kambalda, the planned expansion of these operations, and our recent strategic entry to the copper business,” Kiernan added.

“The growth and development of these new businesses alongside our existing manganese and chromite operations will provide continued strong earnings growth into the future.”
Consolidated recently announced a record $70.3 million unaudited net profit after tax, with its trading profit of $51 million doubling for the third year in a row enabling it to recommend a 12 cent fully franked final dividend, lifting its full-year payout to 18 cents.

The record after tax earnings per share of 37.4 cents underpinned a 49% return on equity for the year.
“As previously foreshadowed to the market, we anticipate a further strong increase in earnings for the 2005/06 financial year, underpinned by the expansion of our manganese production to 1mtpa and an increased contribution from the newly acquired Reliance Nickel operations.

“The strong cash generation of our core businesses will underpin our intensive nickel exploration & development program in the Kambalda region, where we are aiming to double production during the year, and our recent entry to the copper business through our investment in Jabiru Metals Limited.”
ENDS

[stolwyk]

Preliminary Report.

Final Div. payable on 7 Oct. (12 cent).
Record Date 26 Sept.

[davidrob]

Consolidated Minerals (CSM)

Hi Gerry,

Glance at Conmin's (CSM) EBITA -- ... and Revenue, NUMBERS look Good, even Very Very Good, even accounting also for the very Profitable and accretive, Sale of the CSM previous holding of Portman Shares .... in this Years EBIT figures

One quick Observation for you Gerry.

Note the Market Cap for Consmin (CSM) is "only" around -- $890 million on todays share price .... of $4.07 ... with a now reported whopping $70.33 millions Earnings Pre Tax Bottom Line profit...

Interesting to Compare this Market Cap Figure,for CSM, to another certain Mining Co. that comes to mind.....

There is a certain ASX listed Uranium "about to mine" company, with NO reported Earnings, and a Market Cap of approaching the same sort of Number...... which .... after they raise about $65 more millions, as announced TODAY, will pop them (same alluded to Uranium Miing Co operating in Deepest Darkest Africa.... starts with
the letter "p" ... )..... into about the same Market Cap range as CSM !!!!.....

>>> ..... Hmmmmm ....

A Mining Specialist Fund Mger; once told me; that the Best Time to consider to SELL a Mining Hopeful share, was Just Before they went to Mine the Mineral Stuff .....

Coz ..... apart from twenty other reasons -- both psychological....(Hopes and Aspirations built into shareprice ) and ALSO Tangible....ie: there is a lot of CAPEX that will certainly be needed, in any Big Mine Project, when Spade finally says "hello" to the Dirt ......


Food For Thought Anyway Gerry .....;);)

Four (4) easy for you Gerry ...>>> ;):).... quickey questions re. Consmin (CSM) for you Gerry ......

(1) How much of the Current (CSM) Share Price is already factored into these New Excellent Profit Numbers... do you reckon Gerry ... ??

Tommorrow, and next Day, will be very interesting..... on that score.....

(2) What do you calc. the new PE for Consmin CSM, on these numbers now is.. ...?? Certainly EPS at a nudge over 37c per share, is, a "beautiful sort of number" for CSM ....

As you know, CSM has been trading at a PE of about 21 to 22; which is about as High as a MINER would want to go..... so would these numbers bring CSM back to around 13-14 do ya reckon, even 12-13 depending on whether folk factor in the Underlying (CSM) Profit pre Portman or not I guess.... ??

(3) Do you reckon the proposed CSM mgt Idea; to give the (CSM) MD, a present of an initial free 750, 000 shares (about $3 million dollars worth)-- folowed by a further 750, 000 free shares, EACH YEAR FOR THE NEXT 5 YEARS --- which is ...... over and above his annual $2 millions in annual salary etc.... Is a fair shake....?? (Nice work if ya can get it; I guess....[:0] ) ???

(4) What's the outlook for CSM , over the next 5-7 months say, for CSM, from where you sit Gerry ...??

Good to always say "Hi" Gerry !

Happy Investing and Trading Gerry !

Kind Regards,

Robbo :)

[stolwyk]

ANNUAL REPORT

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=CSM&E=ASX&N=300440

[steve fleming]

Half year a rather disappointing $7.4 million,HOWEVER on track for a $85 million full year results, thanks to improved manganese and nickel prices...

Interesting to see market reaction tomorrow, especially given the big selldown of CSM since late last year...

PS opened slightly lower in early morning LOndon trading.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Half year a rather disappointing $7.4 million,HOWEVER on track for a $85 million full year results, thanks to improved manganese and nickel prices...



They say they're on track for $85M for 06/07, not this year. They give no basis on what Mn and Ni prices they used to estimate their forecast. Futhermore, their headline was misleading, the $7.4M figure was based on GAAP not IFRS (the actual profit was $3.2M).

CSM is another Stolwyk special. Sell when Stolwyk stops ramping.

SEC

[steve fleming]

Thanks SEC, you are right.

how much credibility do you think there is in mngmnt's statement that this is a "speed bump" in its continued long term growth?

anyway got hammered in London o/n so could be messy this morning

[SEC]

SF, if Kiernan had been more specific in his guidance, ie '$85M based on current Mn and Ni prices and xyz tonnes of Ni mined', I would be more optimistic. But I'm not convinced, and nor was the market.

I might get interested at around $2.

SEC

[stolwyk]

I don't ramp SEC. I merely record the happenings in these posts.
I suggest you stop posting as otherwise you could also be regarded as a ramper.

Suggest you mind your own business.

Gerry

[soulman]

Someone said that CSM is a potential T/O target as well.

If CSM is very cyclical, $1.60 might not be too far away. It seems magnanese has all but run out of steam, just like steel, a product that needs manganese to produce. Also remember that CSM made a bundle of profits from the PMM deal last year, although I guess if they still hold PMM, they would be smiling right now and the SP might be more than current. Even if they sell into the T/O by Cleveland Cliff, it would still be good for them.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by stolwyk

I don't ramp SEC. I merely record the happenings in these posts.


Then why have you posted nothing about CSM's happenings since September? One ramp a week for nearly a year then complete silence when the price started to tank.

By the way, CSM was yet another example of a company raising capital 'for the hell of it'. It did so back in September when the price was $4. The golden rule is to avoid or sell out of such stocks until the price is invariably much lower.

Also around September, Noble (cornerstone shareholder) sold half of its stake and 3 directors sold down, including MK who sold his entire direct interest.

SEC

[stolwyk]

I won't be posting because you say so. Anybody can post or not post.

It is a free country and a free market. You need to control yourself. You are just one of the posters, no less, no more.

If you want to give ST an excuse to close down, please say so, trouble maker.

Please recognize this:
Readers, please do your own research and you decide if and when to buy, hold or sell any stocks or metals/commodities.


Gerry

[miner]

Ouch the CSM chart does look a tad sad,but never mind the sheep took the bait and bought up big time so certain people could sell at a profit,and lets just thank our lucky stars that there was a disclaimer(or was there?) at the end of all there juicy posts so all is well and they didn't do anything....umm under handed shall we say,phew was worried someone might of ripped someone off there for a minute.

To anyone that does hold it,hope it hangs a U turn for you,and remember what stop losses are for.

Cheers
Miner

[SEC]

Mr Stolwyk, before you get me chucked off this site for disagreeing with you I consider myself told off, I apologise for any offence I may have caused yourself and your house plants, and will never question the motive of your posts again.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by miner

To anyone that does hold it,hope it hangs a U turn for you,and remember what stop losses are for.


Fortunately our great patriach doesn't seem to hold any. Good for him.

[miner]

Sec I bet you 5 jelly beans and a K bar that the last bit of your post,"and will never question the motive of your posts again" will be used as a WOMD if you ever dare to call house plants into question again.

CSM is getting that fall off a cliff look to the chart.

Cheers
Miner

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

SF, if Kiernan had been more specific in his guidance, ie '$85M based on current Mn and Ni prices and xyz tonnes of Ni mined', I would be more optimistic. But I'm not convinced, and nor was the market.

I might get interested at around $2.

SEC


SEC, $2 would be a nice entry point - at $2 CSM will be trading at 5 X 07 NPAT and at less than 4 X 08 NPAT...(based on their forecasts)...long term I think CSM is well placed...short term they have problems

[SEC]

MK has now mentioned how he got his 07 predictions - $6 for Ni and $3.25 for Mn. I think both are above analyst consensus estimates. I await their eps forecasts for CSM and suspect they are significantly lower than what MK is predicting.

Profit guidance for 05/06 is $25M, a PE of 19.5. What a shocker!

SEC

[steve fleming]

maybe they won't get to $2 afterall??...open briefing/road show seemed to stop the slide...looks like good support currently 2.35 - 2.45, i bought in at around 2.30ish...

also substantial upside if BHP/FMG deal goes ahead with Mindy Mindy iron ore project ( which some are valuing at around $1 share)...recent advice from MK indicates that this deal may not be too far away

[SEC]

SF, revised analyst consensus estimates are for $68M in 06/07 and $61M in 07/08, well below MK's forecasts as I expected. So CSM is currently trading on a forward PE of 9 for 07/08 as far as the market is concerned, not a really compelling investment for a mid-sized resource stock.

Noting your other posts on this site you have a keen ear so am interested in the fact you have bought into CSM. But there has been speculation about the Mindy Mindy deal for months now, but nothing has happened. Until a deal is done (if ever), and CSM proves itself a diversified miner with Mindy Mindy/Kambalda/Jabiru, I suspect there won't be much enthusiasm in this stock for a while yet. However I'll raise my target buy to $2.10 to include the SF factor:D

SEC

[ananda77]

...well, if their profit guidance of FY07 = 85m and FY08 = 115m is anything to go by, then current prices look 'cheapest'

...from a technical point of view, I would expect at least upside to 270 for a test of resistance. Bought some for the short-term target, but who knows...

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/CSM1.gif</center>

[ananda77]

<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/CSM2.gif</center>

Kind Regards

[steve fleming]

hi SEC,

nothwithstanding the shocking first half, i like the CSM story, i like very much that they are active deal makers - their Reliance (nickel ) acquisition has delivered diversification and has been well integrated ( on target to increase 4-fold by 08), their stake in Jabiru (copper/zinc ) looks encouraging, the Mindy Mindy FMG
JV has major upside, and other strategic positions in listed explorers/developers offer alliances and potential.

In relation to Mindy Mindy - ABN AMRO value (based on values of PMM / MGX) CSM share could be valued above A$200m or about $1 share..FMG will be pushing hard for this as well, given their current state.... MK has said that it will be "sooner rather than later" that Mindy Mindy development will commence - which by itself seems rather non committal, but the fact that he has repeated this a number of times in various interviews/presentations in the last month, suggests that there may well be some merit/substance to it...

General consensus among the reports i have read - by Macbank /AMRO's/ and Huintley ( all publicly available on Consmins website) agree future multiples "are undemanding", with upside if/and/or when Jabiru/ Mindy Mindy or other corporate developments take shape.

I am taking a bit of a punt that all the Consmins bad news is out now.... I believe that MK will want to leave CSM on a high, therefore maybe some positive developments to coincide with his leaving??... therefore happy to buy at these prices as a longterm hold in the superfund..., esp given the CSM price this time last year, and i don't mind being a buyer if AMP is a seller! Also, the resumption of the on-market share buyback should also add support to s.p....

[SEC]

Nice trade for you so far SF, back to old support/resistance around the 270 mark.

Interesting stuff re the Titan takeover, will have to go hand in hand with an installation of the much talked about nickel concentrator. So is the buyback off again (not that it ever resumed)?

SEC

PS if TIR takeover successful, there goes MK's profit estimates for 06-08. Capex will see to that.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

SF, if Kiernan had been more specific in his guidance, ie '$85M based on current Mn and Ni prices and xyz tonnes of Ni mined', I would be more optimistic. But I'm not convinced, and nor was the market.

I might get interested at around $2.

SEC


CSM has plunged below $2 and I'm interested[:p]

SEC

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by SEC


quote:Originally posted by SEC

SF, if Kiernan had been more specific in his guidance, ie '$85M based on current Mn and Ni prices and xyz tonnes of Ni mined', I would be more optimistic. But I'm not convinced, and nor was the market.

I might get interested at around $2.

SEC


CSM has plunged below $2 and I'm interested[:p]

SEC


Hi SEC...good call....i should have beeen more patient...took some profits at 2.70 but still holding a few...

the selling on this stock has been relentless, day after day after day it gets hammered....some games are being played....absolutely massive turnover of shares earlier this year yet no Sub sher notices...

CSM does itself no favours with directors and MK selling...but really these prices are just silly....possible takeover target???

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

there has been speculation about the Mindy Mindy deal for months now, but nothing has happened. Until a deal is done (if ever), and CSM proves itself a diversified miner with Mindy Mindy/Kambalda/Jabiru, I suspect there won't be much enthusiasm in this stock for a while yet.

SEC


More bad news with rail access denied for ore mined from Mindy Mindy. I'm losing interest again after that announcement, cheap transport for the Morkn Mindy deposit was the only upside I saw for CSM short/medium term.

SEC

[clearasmud]

quote:Originally posted by SEC


quote:Originally posted by SEC

there has been speculation about the Mindy Mindy deal for months now, but nothing has happened. Until a deal is done (if ever), and CSM proves itself a diversified miner with Mindy Mindy/Kambalda/Jabiru, I suspect there won't be much enthusiasm in this stock for a while yet.

SEC


More bad news with rail access denied for ore mined from Mindy Mindy. I'm losing interest again after that announcement, cheap transport for the Morkn Mindy deposit was the only upside I saw for CSM short/medium term.

SEC


The only upside/
Did you buy any?

[SEC]

No, and even if I did buy at $2 I would have sold them today on that news. Better prospects elsewhere at the moment.

[steve fleming]

Another profit Downgrade.... & i am out...Its going to take a long long time for market's confidence in CSM to recover....if it ever can.

[SEC]

Steve, you were lucky to squeak out just prior to the close above $2, because $1.60 beckons next week.

There has been a switch in demand to higher grade stainless steel that uses nickel instead of manganese and this explains the relative movements in their prices.

A 20% profit downgrade is even worse given CSM made their previous forecast when Ni prices were less than $7/lb - now $10/lb.

Interesting to note that MK sold a large parcel just two weeks ago. Should have rang alarm bells.

SEC

[SEC]

I can't believe price has stayed basically constant over the past week since the profit downgrade. CSM has fallen a similar amount to the other nickel co's in May yet the others haven't announced a profit downgrade like CSM has.

Worse to come too for the share price, CSM announced a $70M convertible note issue, effectively diluting its shares another 10%. Ostensibly raised "for general corporate purposes and to continue growth", it sounds like CSM has some serious cashflow problems at the moment.

Avoid or short.

SEC

[steve fleming]

So MK got the boot...with tax loss selling over, TIR takeover almost complete and a succesful $70 mil raising, can CSM turn the corner and succesfully diversify into Ni???

__________________________________________________ ______________

Thursday, June 15, 2006
Michael Quinn

CONSOLIDATED Minerals has been totally oversold by the market, with its nickel division having the potential be one of the lowest cost producers in Western Australia, according to well-known analyst Keith Goode.



ConsMin's Woodie Woodie mine

Based on Goode's "absolute worst-case scenario" numbers, ConsMin's net present value is almost $3 per share, using a 7.5% discount and manganese and nickel prices of $US2.50 per dry metric tonne unit and $15,000/t, respectively.

Yesterday the stock closed at $1.69.

"Factor in the current approved benchmark manganese price and the NPV more than doubles that closing price," Goode said.

ConsMin's selldown over the past 12 months has corresponded with the controversy over managing director Michael Kiernan's exit and a drop in the manganese price, with the stock also being hit by the "double whammy" in the last month of the fall from grace of resource stocks generally.

Goode is especially impressed by the diversified miner's new nickel division following a site visit to the project near Kambalda in April.

"Factor in what is going on in the nickel division and the market appears to be way out in its perception of ConsMin," Goode said.

"Plutonic used to talk about ducks, woofers, greyhounds and swans. ConsMin's Beta Hunt nickel mine was generally regarded in the market as a bit of a woofer compared to Independence's [Long mine] or Mincor assets but ConsMin's woofer now appears to be maturing into a greyhound.

"ConsMin's nickel division, now called Kambalda Nickel, easily appears to have the capability to produce 10,000 tonnes per annum for more than 10 years, and if the exploration comes through, then possibly 20,000tpa nickel can be achieved.

"ConsMin has elected to use the BHP Billiton concentrator to August 2009 after which it can do its own thing with its own concentrator if it wants to (current logic suggests that it should have its own concentrator), and then there's the mind-boggling ore sorter – low-grade 0.5% nickel commissioning material came out as highly saleable 3-4% nickel ore – it really is a sight to see!"

The ore sorter being introduced by ConsMin consists of rock being crushed to 20-70mm and passed through electromagnetic sensors that identify a nickel-ore-bearing specimen. A laser then directs one of 20 air jets to blast the identified ore specimen out of the rock stream and over the edge of a belt.

The sorter costs about $1.6 million, with ConsMin having exclusive rights to the technology for the Kambalda region under an agreement with Ultrasort.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

Steve, you were lucky to squeak out just prior to the close above $2, because $1.60 beckons next week.


It took three weeks to get to $1.60 rather than one week....

Yeah CSM might talk up its nickel deposits but until they make decent money out of it, it will still be considered a manganese play, and a lousy one at that. Nickel up over 50% in six months, my nickel holdings MCR and IGO are at or near record levels, yet CSM has fallen 50% in six months.

Has anyone done the sums on estimating % revenue/profits CSM expects for 06 - 08?

Cheers

SEC

[Dazza]

anyone still on this what do u reackon peeps?

its either CSM or CMR for me at the moment, for mid tier multi base mineral plays.

already have ZFX for zinc exposure so no need for KZL

any other mid teir base metals company?

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Dazza

anyone still on this what do u reackon peeps?

its either CSM or CMR for me at the moment, for mid tier multi base mineral plays.

already have ZFX for zinc exposure so no need for KZL

any other mid teir base metals company?


Hi Dazza, i still follow CSM...its had its fair share of dramas over the last year!

CSM is very cheap based on forward estimates, it offers diversified exposure to a number of metals, with their current focus on ramping up Ni...it has a number of quality projects on the go, plus Iron ore at Mindy Mindy...with the TIR takeover almost finalised managment can now focus on consolidating and developing those assets...

HOWEVER

CSM is soon going to report an absolutely shocker of a result for FY06...while this has pretty much been factored into the sp, it is not going to do much for sentiment for CSM, given just about every single other producer is going to be reporting record profits at the same time

Also, CSM is very much out of favour with the institutions and broking community, who were burnt (and embarrassed ) badly over the last year...while this was under the previous management, the market does not forgive and forget easily...

So, at current prices, CSM represents good value with little IMO downside (there can't possibly be further bad news you would think)...however until the new South African led management team has put some runs on the board, with a decent 6 months performance at least, i can't see the institutions returning or any major re-rating of the stock

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

CSM is very cheap based on forward estimates, it offers diversified exposure to a number of metals, with their current focus on ramping up Ni...it has a number of quality projects on the go, plus Iron ore at Mindy Mindy...with the TIR takeover almost finalised managment can now focus on consolidating and developing those assets...


1. Morkn Mindy deposit looks to be uneconomic after CSM was denied cheap rail access.
2. The TIR assets mainly include nicket deposits that can't be processed unless CSM invests significant capex in its own concentrator. This will eat into profits for the next 2 - 3 years.
3. Manganese is not flavour of the month as demand moves towards higher grade stainless steel. CSM still derives most of its revenue from manganese.
4. CSM supposedly has a 5% share buyback in place but has barely acted on it. Cashflow problems?
5. CSM recently completed a $70M convertible notes issue, diluting equity by 10%. Cashflow problems?

These issues along with market sentiment are likely to keep CSM's price depressed for a long time yet.

SEC

[SEC]

Another shocker result, with CSM making a FY loss after writedowns.

Cost pressures are significant, up almost 20% per tonne ore crushed. No dividend to be paid. Operating cashflow down 85% from FY05.

Manganese spot price well below 05 annual contracted price so manganese revenue could fall further.

CSM management can put all the spin on the result and talk up their nickel portfolio but unfortunately it will remain known for its manganese operations for some time to come.

SEC

[tricha]

All goes back to the former CEO, a top spin doctor i think.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

All goes back to the former CEO, a top spin doctor i think.


or a top truck driver that got very very lucky thanks to the manganese bubble?

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

The one positive this year for CSM, ( and which CSM is surprisingly keeping really very quiet on) is their Jabiru investment....they are sitting on a $30 million gain on JML ( which was not recognised in this years accounts) and their holding now worth $60mil.


I don't think they can recognise this capital gain on the balance sheet using the Equity method. In which case, it'll only be recognised if they sell their stake in JML.

CSM management can't talk up their investment in JML if the capital gain can't be included in the accounts and JML is still a long way from making a profit.


quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Anyway more bad news ahead for CSM as it should be kicked out of the ASX200 in a couple of weeks!


Should be but won't be. Announced index changes don't affect CSM this time around. But it's just a matter of timing, CSM is probably out in 3 months time.

SEC

[Kookaburra]

As I own too many of these, good to see Bruce Brook (Director) buying more shares.

[steve fleming]

SEC, any chance that the company running their ruler over CSM is MCR?

MCR and CSM have neighbouring tenements in the Kambalda...plus Titan's nickel resources in Widgiemooltha could make CSM attractive?

[tricha]

Hmm that's a interesting concept steve.

If anyone can, Mr Moore can. His international experence dealing with Antofagasta plc for the sale of TYC was no mean feat. He will also have the international contacts.

But will he ????????????????

Cheers

[tricha]

AFX News Limited
Consolidated Minerals receives third party approach UPDATE
10.18.2006, 05:54 AM

Most Popular Stories



Most Expensive Cruises 2006
Are Anti-Bribe Laws Working?
Baseball's October Surprise
The End Of Easy Money?
Bush Signs Safe Port Act

Popular Videos



Revving Up Diesel
Interview With MLB SVP Jacqueline Parkes
What's Fueling China's E.T. Ambitions?
Wall Street's Laughing Stock
Introducing Phone Blogging



(Adds further details, background)

LONDON (AFX) - Consolidated Minerals Ltd, the Australian manganese and nickel producer, said it received a preliminary approach from an unnamed third party.

However, 'no discussions of substance' have taken place since then, it said.

'As such, the approach is preliminary, incomplete, conditional and confidential,' it said in a statement.

ConsMin was reacting to a query by the Australian Stock Exchange which asked the group to explain the steady rise in its share price.

Consmin, which is listed on both the ASX and London's Alternative Investment Market, attributed the stock price increase to strong nickel prices, which it noted to have risen by 24 pct over the past month.

'We note that a number of other nickel producing companies have experienced similar recent share price movements,' it added.

Nickel prices have rallied over the past months, reaching their 19-year peak this week, bolstered by continuing tight supply and the disruptions brought about by the labour strife at Canadian and French mines.

Highly acquisitive ConsMin has dramatically built up its nickel business by taking over Titan Resources Ltd and Reliance Mining Ltd, making it an attractive target for large mining companies wanting to either expand into or increase their exposure in the lucrative nickel market.

It also increased its stake in copper and zinc producer Jabiru Metals Ltd.

ConsMin reported losses of 6.5 mln aud in the year to June, as against a profit of 65 mln aud previously, following 26 mln aud of asset write-downs and other one-off items not directly related to trading.

Turnover grew 5.6 pct to 213.8 mln aud, with better nickel prices offsetting the slump in manganese prices.

The group is targeting a 35 pct increase in nickel production in 2007 to 6,000-6,400 tonnes. It is also expecting manganese output of 900,000-925,000 tonnes and chromite volumes of 240,000-250,000 tonnes for next year.

ConsMin shares were up 9 at 92-1/2 pence in London this morning. In Australia, they were up over 11 pct at 2.43 aud.



monicca.egoy@afxnews.com

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

SEC, any chance that the company running their ruler over CSM is MCR?

MCR and CSM have neighbouring tenements in the Kambalda...plus Titan's nickel resources in Widgiemooltha could make CSM attractive?


Very unlikely. MCR is busy exploring its own tenements and aquisitions is not David Moore's style. Rumours have it that IGO is running the ruler over CSM but Chris Bonwick has dismissed that rumour as unfounded.

CSM possesses very profitable 5000tpa nickel mines. Shame it also has dud manganese operations that still absorb most of the available equipment and manpower and are barely profitable. Paying $500M+ for 5000tpa nickel production and a 30% Jabiru stake is way over the top. If either IGO or MCR have a tilt at CSM I'll sell in disgust.

SEC (MCR IGO)

[SEC]

Nickel production downgrade for 07 of 25%, now barely 2000 tonnes. So in order to prop up the share price CSM management dig up old news in an interested third party regarding a 'possible transaction'. I very much doubt anyone is interested in a takeover of CSM, but there may be interest in their JML stake. JML was up 4% on heavy volume today.

SEC

[JBmurc]

GOOD NEWS FOR FMG CSM holders not so BHP RIO


Court ruling may open up Pilbara rail lines
Andrew Trounson December 18, 2006
MINING giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto could eventually be forced to open up their multi-billion dollar Pilbara iron ore railways in Western Australia to third party access after a landmark Federal Court ruling today.
Justice John Middleton yesterday overturned a previous 1999 court judgement to rule that BHP's 295km Mount Newman railway isn't part of a production process, and therefore not exempt from third party access provisions under the Trade Practices Act.

BHP and Rio own and operate the only rail networks in the Pilbara, hauling their iron ore production to their ports Port Hedland, Dampier and Cape Lambert.

The decision gives a boost to Andrew Forrest's Fortescue Metals' bid to win access to the Newman railway by challenging Treasurer Peter Costello's decision earlier this year not to uphold a recommendation from the National Competition Council that the track be declared open access.

But there is uncertainty over the practicality of enforcing open access, and third parties may well not be able to afford the access fees that a BHP or Rio could justify.

BHP is expected to appeal the Federal Court decision and is fighting Fortescue's attempt to by-pass Mr Costello.

But the mining giant yesterday warned that uncertainty over the access question could threaten future investment in the industry that next year will overtake coking coal as Australia's single largest commodity export.

“Open access to dedicated rail infrastructure would compromise the efficient production of iron ore and cause delays in future investment decisions, making Australian producers less reliable,” BHP's head of carbon steel materials, Chris Lynch said yesterday.

Fortescue welcomed the decision.

“The ruling marks the beginning of a new phase for the Pilbara that will see the opening up of infrastructure and will result in new exploration, new mining companies, new exporters and new jobs,” said Fortescue chief operating officer Graeme Rowley

[steve fleming]

I see that CSM's investment in JML is now valued at over $100mil and rising....CSM's market investments seem to create far more value than its own operations, which lurch from one hiccup/delay/disaster to another

[steve fleming]

Hot Copper rumour that Zinifex is the company looking over CSM...would surely have to be for its JML stake?

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Hot Copper rumour that Zinifex is the company looking over CSM...would surely have to be for its JML stake?


Surprised you would attach any credence to a Hotcopper rumour. Recent downward price trend would suggest it's a load of bollocks. Zinifex itself was to be taken over during the Xmas break if you believed the Hotcopper rumours.

Jabiru is the jewel in CSM's crown. Strewth, its market cap is already more than CSM (less its JML stake). Maybe Jabiru should take over CSM:D

SEC

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by SEC



Surprised you would attach any credence to a Hotcopper rumour. Recent downward price trend would suggest it's a load of bollocks. Zinifex itself was to be taken over during the Xmas break if you believed the Hotcopper rumours.




Yeah...i think most of what is said on HC is alot of rubbish....however i had a look a couple of other posts of the relevant poster 'Denial' who had said "I reiterate ZFX will show their hand shortly" and, surprisingly, he had been pretty spot on with a couple of other calls he had made and appeared very switched on/genuine (ie unlike your average HC poster)....we'll see what happens i guess...not that it bothers me too much as i hold neither company

[SEC]

Latest rumour going round is that a Russian consortium is about to make a bid for CSM. Will the rumourmongers at least be consistent in their story!!!

[SEC]

Well that takeover rumour fizzled. According to the rumours, there was supposed to be an imminent bid on 29 Jan when the production report was released. Yet there was no bid, and there was the usual disappointing report with yet another reduction in forecast annual nickel production.

I still reckon the potential 'transaction' cryptically refered to by Baxter is the sale of their JML stake.

SEC

[SEC]

For the first time in 18 months I'm starting to change my negative view on CSM. Ni prices continue to rise so even though CSM's Ni output is paltry it is very profitable. But key for me is that for the first time in over two years the prices of Mn and Cr are starting to increase too. Only up 5 - 10% from FH07 but since CSM's margins on the bulk alloy ores are wafer thin even a small increase means a significant improvement in profit. Also largely protected against a falling USD for FY07 since approx 75% of their USD sales are hedged at 0.726. Then there's the JML investment...

If Gilbertson and AMCI manage to grab 60% of CSM at these prices (in one of the oddest takeover offers I've ever seen) it could well be a steal. I'm watching CSM very closely now. SF, are you still watching this one?

SEC

[steve fleming]

Hi SEC

I still watch CSM - looks like its really turning the corner w.r.t. Mn & Cr - though you wouldn't think so if you listen to Baxter & Co, who are doing their blatant best trying to keep the sp depressed in an effort to make the Gilbertson transaction more attractive.

You would think though, that the numbers will soon start to speak for themselves, no matter what negative spin CSM management put on them.

But yeah some quality assets contribute to a truely diversified mid - tier miner...may well be a few companies regretting they didn't make a play for CSM when they were in all sorts of bother last year.

Cheers

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming


I still watch CSM - looks like its really turning the corner w.r.t. Mn & Cr - though you wouldn't think so if you listen to Baxter & Co, who are doing their blatant best trying to keep the sp depressed in an effort to make the Gilbertson transaction more attractive.

You would think though, that the numbers will soon start to speak for themselves, no matter what negative spin CSM management put on them.


Yeah that was a really negative announcement and it was for that reason I started digging deeper.

1. "this positive upward trend continues to be partially offset by rising shipping freight rates and the strengthening Australian – US Dollar exchange rate, impacting the FOB prices, or the “net-back” prices, received by the Company."

CSM is largely hedged against adverse movements in the USD for this FY. So 'partially' is Baxter-speak for 'barely'.

2. "Based on current freight rates, the average FOB price received by the Company for manganese lump ore for the full 2007 financial year is expected to increase by between 8-10% on the average price received for the first half of FY07"

Another Baxterism to play down Mn prices up 16 - 20% in 2H07 compared to 1H07 (initially had me fooled too). Price increases for Mn and Cr more significant than I first thought, and from all counts spot prices are continuing to increase.

I think I'm talking myself into buying this one.

SEC

[steve fleming]

Interesting stuff...

Private equity group mulls move on ConsMin

http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=32&ContentID=27013

Michael Kiernan certainly has his hand in many pies these days....URA,MAL,PMA, TRF? and a couple of other iron ore plays from memory, don't know how he'll fit in a gig at CSM?

Another rumour the other week was that Noble group was also looking at CSM.

And agree SEC, CSM is looking more and more attractive.

[SEC]

I thought that the WA article would have put a rocket under CSM this morning but the disappointing quarterly report out today may have dampened enthusiasm. There's the (usual) poor nickel production stats but OK elsewhere. A few months ago the only meaningful cashflow came from its nickel output so any downside in production meant its total cashflow was rapidly eroded. Now with some cashflow coming from its major operations the variability in nickel production is less crucial to total cashflow. I've just hopped in....

SEC

[steve fleming]

Wouldn't you think CSM's $125m investment in Aus' pre-eminent Copper/zinc mine rate more of a mention in the qtrly than just a one line "pls refer to website..."???

CSM never discloses how successful this investment has been (far more profitable in absolute terms than their own trading operations over the last couple of years), and i am guessing most CSM sh'ers would be in the dark as to the value of this investment.

Why the big secret CSM???

PS SEC - did you see the AFR wrote something y'day along the lines of Gilbertson may want to REDUCE the consideration offered as a result of CSM's downgraded nickel production...??? Strange.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

PS SEC - did you see the AFR wrote something y'day along the lines of Gilbertson may want to REDUCE the consideration offered as a result of CSM's downgraded nickel production...??? Strange.


One of the most biased and imbalanced 'articles' I've ever seen in AFR. Focused totally on the nickel operations and the way it was written you'd think that CSM produced ONLY nickel. Twists the lack of disclosure by CSM management as hiding more bad news when the opposite is blatantly true. Assumes Gilbertson has been making this bid at arms length when in reality Baxter is pissing in his pocket. You'd think the story was written by Gilbertson himself!

But since this load of bollocks was published in the AFR and therefore construed as being gospel CSM's price predictably fell. I mistimed my CSM pruchase by one day - I could have got a swag at $2.40.

When trying to determine recent spot prices for managanese and chromite ore I stumbled upon this site:

http://www.usail2.com/consolidated_takeover_updates.htm

A one stop site for info on Mn and Cr prices and how they're increasing more than what CSM is letting on. Must have a bit of a following, it's already upset PWC!

SEC

[SEC]

Ho ho ho, CSM now at its highest price for over a year. Gilbertson's opporunistic and lowball bid is effectively dead in the water now that the market is starting to factor in recent big increases in manganese and chrome prices. Not to mention its investments in the likes of Jabiru.

Looking like a good turnaround story here and I'm pleased to have recognised it before it was too late.

SEC

[Dazza]

same, i brought it for my old mans portfolio

looking to buy in more

[steve fleming]

From Rintalay on HC - absolutely staggering re Mn increases:

"Should be $4 next week, I have a feeling that ConsMin will make an announcement to the market next week. You can add $60 million + extra profit on these prices
This is all inside information until ConsMin makes the market update, so if you want to top up. do it Monday.


MANGANESE ORE 48% CIF CHINA - PRICES FROM RYAN’S NOTES
DATE RN 48% Mn Ore US$/dmtu LOW RN 48% Mn Ore US$/dmtu HIGH
1 st May 07 3.20 3.60
4th May 07 3.60 4.00
8th May 07 3.80 4.00
11th May 07 4.20 4.30
15th May 07 4.20 4.30
18th May 07 4.35 4.60
22nd May 07 4.70 5.00
25th May 07 4.70 5.00
Percentage increase 47% 40%"

Amazing stuff.

[steve fleming]

Re above - compare the spot prices with CSM's forecast average MN lump price received for FY 2007 of US$2.30/dmtu (FOB)

H2 US$2.50/dmtu FOB
H1 US$2.09/dmtu FOB

2008 profits are going to start looking scary.

[steve fleming]

CSM powering along to 18 month highs.

Today up 2% while S&P resources index down 2%.

Management still behaving bizarely - releasing a supposedly price sensitive announcement concerning some relatively old news about Investec joining the bidder consortium, yet still no announcement to market on its trading position.

[steve fleming]

Well just had a quick look over the SoA info released, in typical CSM style, after close of market on a Friday before a long weekend.

Excellent to see that according to PwC the Gilbertson deal undervalues CSM and the transaction is NOT fair to shareholders.

Though how PwC then conclude it to be reasonable, basically because of Gilbertsons promised increased deal flows, is beyond me. I saw hidden away an extra $30mil in transaction cost will be incurred if the proposal is approved - Gilbertson kept that part very quiet.

I also find it staggering to believe that, less than 2 weeks from the end of the f/y, CSM do not have any idea what the expected profit for 07 will be - annualising the 1st half results is just plain stupid....2007 guidance is an incredibly material aspect for this transaction given the turn around in prices of CSM's key commodities, and without this, i don't know how CSM shareholders can make an informed decision in relation to the transaction.

Notwithstanding all this, i have a feeling the deal will proceed.

[steve fleming]

Fascinating week ahead for CSM

Noble in ConsMin spotlight

Hong Kong commodities trader Noble Group is believed to be weighing up an alliance with the mystery consortium circling WA miner Consolidated Minerals in a bid to trump Brian Gilbertson’s floundering take-over plans.

It is understood that Noble chief executive Richard Elman met senior representatives of the mystery group in Hong Kong this week. Noble, which still holds more than 6 per cent of ConsMin, is considered to be a possible cornerstone backer of a rival offer for the struggling nickel and manganese producer.

.....

It is expected that any Noble-backed bid for Cons Mm would have the support of its former chief executive and fbunder, Michael Kiernan, who would be offered the chance to regain the helm of the company he was forced to quit last year. Mr Kiernan yesterday stepped down as chairman of uranium explorer Uran due to the increasing “pressure of work”. Mr Kiernan is on the boards of seven public companies, including his gold flagship Monarch Gold and Noble-based groups Territory Resources and Precious Metals Australia.

“I suspect my future may be a bit busy,” he said.

--------------

Seems a bit unbeleivable, but would be a great story if MK returns to CSM

[steve fleming]

Some major broker upgrades came thru today....including a couple at $5+.

Patts reckon CSM is potentially on a fwd PE of 2-3.

[Dazza]

reject offer pls

CSM is in dads portfolio i will be rejecting the offer

[Huang Chung]

Not currently holding, buy still interested in what's happening with CSM.

I can't imagine shareholders accepting the bid....what do people think WILL happen, as opposed to what they think should happen??

If the vote doesn't get up, I would also presume that Rod Baxter's position as CEO would be pretty untenable.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Fascinating week ahead for CSM

Noble in ConsMin spotlight

Hong Kong commodities trader Noble Group is believed to be weighing up an alliance with the mystery consortium circling WA miner Consolidated Minerals in a bid to trump Brian Gilbertson’s floundering take-over plans.

It is understood that Noble chief executive Richard Elman met senior representatives of the mystery group in Hong Kong this week. Noble, which still holds more than 6 per cent of ConsMin, is considered to be a possible cornerstone backer of a rival offer for the struggling nickel and manganese producer.

.....

It is expected that any Noble-backed bid for Cons Mm would have the support of its former chief executive and fbunder, Michael Kiernan, who would be offered the chance to regain the helm of the company he was forced to quit last year. Mr Kiernan yesterday stepped down as chairman of uranium explorer Uran due to the increasing “pressure of work”. Mr Kiernan is on the boards of seven public companies, including his gold flagship Monarch Gold and Noble-based groups Territory Resources and Precious Metals Australia.

“I suspect my future may be a bit busy,” he said.

--------------

Seems a bit unbeleivable, but would be a great story if MK returns to CSM



Where there is smoke, there is fire....i would say a Kiernan lead TTY/Noble bid is only a matter of days away...at least before the SoA meeting scheduled for 17 July.

A bidding war will be excellent for CSM!!

Brian Gilbertson v Michael Kiernan

Will be quite a battle...hopefully!

And Dazza, have tonite completed my proxies voting no for both accounts i hold CSM in.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

...i would say a Kiernan lead TTY/Noble bid is only a matter of days away...at least before the SoA meeting scheduled for 17 July.



Well maybe even tomorrow according to this report:

By Stephen Bell
Special To DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

PERTH (Dow Jones)-A consortium led by Australia's Territory Resources Ltd. (TTY.AU) and Hong Kong's Noble Group plans to make a rival bid for manganese miner Consolidated Minerals Ltd. (CSM.AU) before the end of the week, a person familiar with the deal told Dow Jones Newswires Wednesday.

The potential A$680 million offer will provide CSM shareholders with an alternative to the bid from Brian Gilbertson's Pallinghurst Investors consortium, the person said.

If successful, the rival offer would see a dramatic return to CSM by its former managing director Michael Kiernan, now executive chairman of Territory - a budding iron ore miner which says it wants to diversify via mergers or acquisitions.

The Territory/Noble bidding group also includes Austrian trader DCM Decometal and investment bank Lehman Brothers, the person added.

The consortium plans to deliver an offer to CSM late Wednesday for consideration by the company's directors at a scheduled board meeting Thursday, the person said.

A $680 million bid would value CSM shares at just under A$3 each, higher than Pallinghurst's revised offer which CSM directors said Monday was worth A$2.82/share.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming




Where there is smoke, there is fire....i would say a Kiernan lead TTY/Noble bid is only a matter of days away...at least before the SoA meeting scheduled for 17 July.

A bidding war will be excellent for CSM!!

Brian Gilbertson v Michael Kiernan

Will be quite a battle...hopefully!

And Dazza, have tonite completed my proxies voting no for both accounts i hold CSM in.


Nice to see the bidding war started.

Which of the two "egos" (Gilbertson v Kiernan) wants it the most?

I reckon they both want CSM pretty badly.

At the moment though, both offers are woefully inadequate

[SEC]

Steve keep up the good work posting on CSM I still hold but from a distance.

Cheers from UK

SEC

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

Steve keep up the good work posting on CSM I still hold but from a distance.

Cheers from UK

SEC


No worries SEC - hope you made/making it to Wimbledon !

[steve fleming]

With TTY touching $1.25 in trading yesterday, the all scrip TTY offer was worth $3.75 per CSM share - a 20% premiun to CSM's current share price.

Given that TTY is placing its shares with Noble/DCM at $1.00, the current pricing of CSM is justified.

Rumour is that PEM (who were working togethor with TTY on a joint CSM takeover prior to TTY securing additional funding to go it alone)will pick up CSM's JML investment, while the ever acquisitive MCR will pick up CSM's nickel assets.

[Huang Chung]

There will be an interview with Michael Kiernan on Sky News Sunday Business this weekend.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Some major broker upgrades came thru today....including a couple at $5+.

Patts reckon CSM is potentially on a fwd PE of 2-3.


Analysts are now talking about a FY08 NPAT for CSM of $200m+.

CSM's current market cap = $700m, including approx $200m in surplus investments.

Therefore based on an equity value of CSM's business of approx $500m, CSM is potentially trading on an 08 PE of 2.5.

Anything less than $5 for CSM, (representing an 08 PE of 5) will be a steal.

WMC Resources all over again.

[steve fleming]

Nice article:

Mining vets pit wits over ConsMin

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/mining-vets-pit-wits-over-consmin/2007/07/08/1183833342919.html

[steve fleming]

CSM confirmed yesterday what most CSM observers already knew - it is making absolute bucket loads of cash - a staggering Operating EBITDA of $101.6 million for FY07! (even given the very poor first half and all the nickel downgrades)

This is what an acquirer is paying for...all the other admin and one offs (of which there are plenty - no thanks to Parlinghurst)are pretty much irrelvant and would be stripped out in the event of a merger.

All divisions performing strongly - very surprised at Nickel being the biggest contributor to EBITDA - "Nickel division EBITDA increased 163% in the second half year following the expiration of long term hedging contracts."

With JML now in pre-production CSM will equity account those profits next year as well...Nickel Mining activities have recently commenced at Widgiemooltha (Ex Titan)...high grade ore being accessed at East Alpha...Investments in Jabiru and BC Iron....just so much upside, its hard not to be excited!!

According to Huntleys - "While manganese prices are notoriously volatile, we now look for US$5.50/dmtu in FY08 and US$3.50/dmtu in FY09, up from our previous US$2.50/dmtu forecast. This more than doubles our FY08 NPAT forecast to $193.9m"

Well, Huntleys may have to consider upgarding their forecasts now as CSM advised current Mn "Landed prices range between US$7.25/dmtu to US$7.50/dmtu CIF, representing more than double the average price received for the second half of FY2007 of US$3.50/dmtu CIF"

This will well and truely push NPAT over $200m...meaning that CSM is trading on an FY08 PE of about 2.5 (after allowing for its $200m in surplus listed investments)

What ever way you look at it, CSM is one of the most undervalued producers, with some of the most potential, on the ASX - glad i hold plenty.

[steve fleming]

Looks like the Scheme meeting will be called off as MK confirms he will make his bid:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/its-a-go-territory-to-lodge-formal-offer-for-consmin/2007/07/13/1183833769319.html

It's a go: Territory to lodge formal offer for ConsMin


.."We've found no bombs," Mr Kiernan said.

"The weekend is going to be a good weekend. I'll watch the footy, go to church and put together a deal, and we anticipate coming out Monday with what we intend to do.".....

Hope Port Adelaide's 91 point hammering of the Eagles yesterday hasn't upset MK's weekend too much.

[Huang Chung]

TTY have gone into a trading halt and CSM have just put out a release titled:

'Consolidated Minerals new management team achieves results with 75% total shareholder return in FY2007'.

Quote - 'When I started as Managing Director in July 2006, the company was in poor shape, as reflected in the financial losses. Shareholders had lost confidence and the company's reputation in the market was not good'.

Read:
- Baxter......Goooood
- Kiernan.....Baaaaad

Since TTY have come on the scene, CSM certainly seem to have changed their strategy of underplaying the turnaround...now they are trumpeting it.

Not holding CSM or TTY, but have a good chunk of VML, which is one of the 'extras' in this drama.

Interesting times ahead....

[Tok3n]

I'm holding YML and TTY

Getting a bit annoyed with all this takeover crap

TTY was ticking along nicely :(..

[Huang Chung]

YML or VML Tok3n?

[Tok3n]

opps typo

YML is another iron ore, totally unrelated, sorry.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Tok3n

I'm holding YML and TTY

Getting a bit annoyed with all this takeover crap

TTY was ticking along nicely :(..


Look at the bigger picture....If TTY takes over CSM it will be the best thing that's ever happened to TTY....they'll have to pay up for it but.

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Huang Chung

TTY have gone into a trading halt and CSM have just put out a release titled:

'Consolidated Minerals new management team achieves results with 75% total shareholder return in FY2007'.

Quote - 'When I started as Managing Director in July 2006, the company was in poor shape, as reflected in the financial losses. Shareholders had lost confidence and the company's reputation in the market was not good'.

Read:
- Baxter......Goooood
- Kiernan.....Baaaaad

Since TTY have come on the scene, CSM certainly seem to have changed their strategy of underplaying the turnaround...now they are trumpeting it.

Not holding CSM or TTY, but have a good chunk of VML, which is one of the 'extras' in this drama.

Interesting times ahead....




Yes HC. Now that his job is on the line, and his cosy deal with Gilbertson is on the ropes, Baxter has changed his tune completely.

[SEC]

So the TTY bid is finally official. But why is CSM trading at a 7% discount to the bid price ($2 + 1.5TTY = $3.60)? That's one of the widest arbitrage opportunities I've seem in a while - tail wagging the dog?

Good to see they finally made a profit within cooee of consensus expectations (OK $2M short but given recent track record that's excellent). Most encouraging was nickel production. I've repeatedly bagged CSM for production well short of expectations. For once they actually beat budget!!!!!!!

Even at $3.60, CSM is still too cheap. Forward PE of 7 makes it one of the cheapest mining companies around. Compare BHP/RIO at 12!! I'm not selling below $4.

SEC

[steve fleming]

Macquarie Research Equities Recommendation

MRE maintain outperform recommendation on CSM and price target upgraded to $3.80ps.

In an environment of mining equities typically trading at premiums (many significant) to their fundamentally derived DCF value, and at much higher short-term earnings multiples, CSM continues to look pretty attractive.

Given the recent movements in the global manganese market, CSM is now worth considerably more than it was several months ago. In our opinion, both bidding parties will need to, and are probably capable of, paying closer to $4.00ps (in risk-weighted value terms).

Traders looking for maximum exposure to short-term movements in the above mentioned share prices should consider the following equity warrants for a high-risk, high-return strategy.

Investors and traders looking for short to medium-term leveraged exposure to the banks’ share price should consider Macquarie Instalments for a higher risk, higher return alternative to direct share investment.

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

So the TTY bid is finally official. But why is CSM trading at a 7% discount to the bid price ($2 + 1.5TTY = $3.60)? That's one of the widest arbitrage opportunities I've seem in a while - tail wagging the dog?


An even better arbitrage opportunity is MTU's takeover of OTL. OTL trading at a deep discount and the deal is a lock.

[OneUp]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming


quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

Some major broker upgrades came thru today....including a couple at $5+.

Patts reckon CSM is potentially on a fwd PE of 2-3.


Analysts are now talking about a FY08 NPAT for CSM of $200m+.

CSM's current market cap = $700m, including approx $200m in surplus investments.

Therefore based on an equity value of CSM's business of approx $500m, CSM is potentially trading on an 08 PE of 2.5.

Anything less than $5 for CSM, (representing an 08 PE of 5) will be a steal.

WMC Resources all over again.


Steve I think that P/E of 2.5 might be double counting earnings from JML. Analyst forecasts of circa $180m already equity account for JML forecast profits. Exchange rate assumptions are lower than spot. If I read it right prices for manganese in the analyst reports are FOB not CIY (FOB about 75% of CIY, $7.00 to US$7.25/dmtu 1H2008, so US$5.25 to US$5.43/dmtu FOB), and are very close to spot. I'd calculate the P/E around 4-4.5 - still very cheap especially if one subscribes to the view manganese demand will remain strong.

[steve fleming]

Hi one-up,

yes,i agree, if CSM's share of JML's profits (circa $20m) are equity accounted in their forecasts, then my calculations are wrong, and the JML investment should not be adjusted for.

Anyway, Macqaurie have calculated CSM's FY08 PE as:
- based on spot Mn FOB prices - 3.9 and
- based on their forecast Mn FOB prices - 4.4.

Pretty cheap, but i guess reflects the inherent risk associated with the Mn exposure.


Also on a DCF basis Macquarie have CSM at $3.43 based on long term Mn prices and at $4.30 at spot Mn prices...reflecting how leveraged CSM is to Mn.

[steve fleming]

CSM - the next BHP??

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/ConsMin-could-be-another-Billiton/2007/07/22/1185042921933.html

Sounds like a new TTY cash bid is on its way....looks like $4 is not too far away

[SEC]

Broker upgrades SF was mentioning have reduced the consensus 08PE down to only 5.5 (and similar for 09 from memory). And with all the bullish forecasts for Mn what does Gilbertson do - make yet another inadequate offer. At least Kiernan started his bidding at a more realistic level - now $3.73. And now the prospect of TTY offering more cash we should see $4 soon. Even at $4 it's one of the cheapest miners listed on the ASX.

Actually the TTY scrip bid isn't as bad as the market thinks - you keep your exposure to Mn/Cr as well as have exposure to a budding iron ore producer.

Gilbertson has made the fatal flaw of an initial offer far too low and bought no blocking stake prior to the offer. He may well lose out because he skimped early on, if he offered $2.75 - $3 first up that may well have been the killer blow.

To think the AFR published a third rate unbelievably biased report 3 months ago speculating that Gilbertson was going to REDUCE his $2.28 offer....

SEC

[steve fleming]

there has been some very aggressive buying the last few days.

CSM has been powering ahead when most miners are suffering.

Is the rumoured third bidding party finally going to show its hand??

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

there has been some very aggressive buying the last few days.

CSM has been powering ahead when most miners are suffering.

Is the rumoured third bidding party finally going to show its hand??


Yeah - CSM price now at a premium to TTY's bid when it's generally been trading at a 5+% discount.

There were increased volumes just prior to TTY's bid, and the same occurred just prior to Pallinghurst's counterbid. So if there's increased volumes tomorrow as well...

CSM has been a good hedge against my nickel holdings in the past month[B)]

SEC

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

There were increased volumes just prior to TTY's bid, and the same occurred just prior to Pallinghurst's counterbid. So if there's increased volumes tomorrow as well...


+10% today when everything else got trashed, something's afoot. Rumours of TTY putting in an all cash bid and rumours of a 3rd party entering the fray. I suspect it's the latter looking at today's action.

Fantastic return 60% in 3 months for an ASX200 stock when the overall market has gone backward during that time. On days like today I wish the ONLY stock I held was CSM....

SEC

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by SEC


quote:Originally posted by SEC

There were increased volumes just prior to TTY's bid, and the same occurred just prior to Pallinghurst's counterbid. So if there's increased volumes tomorrow as well...


+10% today when everything else got trashed, something's afoot. Rumours of TTY putting in an all cash bid and rumours of a 3rd party entering the fray. I suspect it's the latter looking at today's action.

Fantastic return 60% in 3 months for an ASX200 stock when the overall market has gone backward during that time. On days like today I wish the ONLY stock I held was CSM....

SEC


Yeah pretty incredible performance by CSM today, SEC.

Someone buying for a purpose - with almost 5% of CSM traded today.

Over the last 3 years it is almost as if CSM has been negatively correlated to market movements.

[SEC]

Steve, CSM was a screaming turnaround story in April but looks as if you and I were the only true believers on this site. Even better that it's an ASX200 stock with sufficient liquidity that trying to trade $100K worth does not 'move the market'.

SEC

[OneUp]

Big shout out to SEC and Steve Flem for their great work on this one :). The story and upside couldn't have been spelt out more clearly, really.

There's surely some way to go if the price of manganese can stay up there.

According to a Vienna steel/manganese conference presentation, global industrial production has grown 22% since 2001. Steel output grew at twice the rate of industrial production over the same period. The continuing development of China (as well as India, parts of the Middle East and Eastern Europe) should ensure demand for steel grows at a healthy rate over the next 5-10 years. Demand for manganese alloys is likely to rise even faster than demand for steel, as the manganese content in steel products increases.

Recently, leading stainless steel manufacturer Allegheny Ludlum replaced nickel with manganese in some of its products and Outokumpu launched a nickel-free stainless product. Where applications permit, the stainless steel market is hoping to rely less on nickel and more on manganese, which one report suggests could see manganese based stainless steel output rise 25-50% by 2009.

In its report for 2007, the International Manganese Institute commented, “Manganese demand prospects have never been so good… (with) limited down risks for the next 10-15 years.”

From what I've read no major mines are due to come online near term.

One way bet - I was a bit slow to cotton on to CSM but it reminded me a bit of MCR way back, and bought in a couple of weeks ago at $3.45.

[Dazza]

always good

talk of a 3rd bidder?

maybe $5 here we come?

i dun hold but i brought for the old man at 2.6

[steve fleming]

Cheers OneUp,

in terms of providing the best value lowish risk exposure to the commodity boom, IMO you can't beat producing mid tier miners.

Just on your point re future Mn production - Pallinghurst in their Bidder Statement released on Friday have said they have a MoA in relation to an acquisition of a Mn deposit that could be turned into a major 1mil tpa Mn mine within 2-3 years...ie producing more Mn than CSM does currently...if Pallinghurst is not succesful with CSM they will develop this mine themselves.

The other pretty important thing to note from the bidder statement is that there is a provision in the Mindy Mindy JV with FMG, giving FMG right to buy out CSM's 50% in the event of change in control in CSM....that would be unfortunate as Mindy Mindy is starting to look as though it has some major upside for CSM.

Cheers

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by OneUp

Recently, leading stainless steel manufacturer Allegheny Ludlum replaced nickel with manganese in some of its products and Outokumpu launched a nickel-free stainless product.


Cheers for the kudos Oneup. Unfortunately you've bought the bullshït from the steelmakers, they can say what they like re producing nickel free SS but ultimately the customer, NOT the steelmaker, will decide on what steel grades are produced by the steelmakers. In the EU, legislation is particularly stringent in the use of correct (300 series) SS grades in industrial applications.

Having said that, there is no doubt the 200 (CrMn) series is the fastest growing SS segment since it has a niche for low-performance applications so can be substituted for 300 series SS.

Latest market scuttlebutt is that hedge funds entered the fray on Friday. Actually that makes more sense to explain Friday's action than a 3rd bidder (who would more likely take an off-market stake). If that's the case upside over $4 may be limited in the short term.

SEC

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by steve fleming

in terms of providing the best value lowish risk exposure to the commodity boom, IMO you can't beat producing mid tier miners.


Right on! I'm a big fan of them. They trade at significantly lower multiples to BHP/RIO and pay out bigger dividends. By owning a few well selected mid tier miners you reduce risk to commodity price specific and mine specific issues and can avoid underperforming commodities such as aluminium and gold.

The big miners are also fans of mid tier miners and there will be ongoing consolidation in this sector.

SEC (CSM IGO KZL MCR SRL)

[OneUp]

SEC, no I had read the considered comments on this thread and wouldn't dare ;) suggest that the nickel in 300 series will be substituted with Mn. I'm no expert on the steel market but there seems to be a good case that demand for manganese for use in stainless steel will increase, where it is possible/desirable to replace nickel.

At any rate the increasing manganese content in steel makes for a good story. (The figure I got from that presentation was that Mn demand had increased 79% over the past 5 years; steel production was up 45%; industrial production 22%). Steve, the article I was perusing didn't really define what near term was but I guess they meant the next 6-12 months. If manganese demand continues to grow at the same rate as over the past 5 years (circa 10-15% per annum), would this not engulf that extra supply coming onstream?

[OneUp]

By the way SEC, I see you've got SRL in your holdings at the mo.

I'm quite a big fan of their Lake Torrens prospect which I hear through the grapevine is the most prospective target for an IOCGU in Australia. Have exposure via ARE, which is free carried with 30% interest.

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by SEC

Latest market scuttlebutt is that hedge funds entered the fray on Friday. Actually that makes more sense to explain Friday's action than a 3rd bidder (who would more likely take an off-market stake). If that's the case upside over $4 may be limited in the short term.


Who the fück is Palmary Enterprises? Has to be a hedge fund. Anyway it has a blocking stake - there goes the short term upside.

SEC

[Huang Chung]

Don't know how true this is SEC, but I heard there is some Ukranian mob buying in....maybe it's them?

[OneUp]

If it's a hedge fund you'd think they are on the register to maximise the takeover price (seeing as CSM management won't).

[steve fleming]

quote:Originally posted by Huang Chung

Don't know how true this is SEC, but I heard there is some Ukranian mob buying in....maybe it's them?


The AFR today were adament it was the powerful Privat group from the Ukraine

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070730/19/1c2bw.html

http://www.privatbank.ua/info/index3.stm

[Huang Chung]

Posted by Rimtalay over at ASF....

I now understand why Baxter is pushing Pallinghurst deal so hard – he gets GIVEN 3 million CSM shares – a $9.9m Gilbertson gift.
Read page 17 of the bidders statement.
Baxter will rip-off shareholders to get his sweetheart deal.

Interesting stuff!

[OneUp]

Does anyone know much about OMH?

A vertically integrated manganese producer/trader/smelter with links to China.

$200m market cap.

Production well up last few months and 1H08 should be a corker given 140% manganese price hike. Given OMHs' relatively low profile could be some value here.

Also interesting is the TTY/Kiernan connection. OMH own 16% of TTY, so there might be a big payoff for OMH if TTY takeover CSM (OMH need more manganese supply).

Haven't crunched the numbers yet and still looking into this one so could be wrong.

[Huang Chung]

CSM shareholders might find the following article on the chromite market of some interest.

I copied it from the Industrial Minerals Corporation (IDM) website. IDM are developing a project in Oregon USA that will have foundry grade chromite sands as its main product. (I believe CSM's product is used primarily in the more common metallurgical application).

http://www.imcl.com.au/pdfs/press/ChromiteJune2007.pdf

[OneUp]

Interesting presentation out today.

CSM shooting for 15,000 tpa nickel within 5 years.

[steve fleming]

Interesting presentation out today.

CSM shooting for 15,000 tpa nickel within 5 years.

Believe it when you see it OneUp.

About 18 months ago CSM were forecasting 15k tpa within 3-5 years...so some pretty big slippage

It has been one disaster after another for CSM in relation to the development of their Nickel operations - given that i was very surprised to see their Ni division more profitable than their Mn division last half.

[steve fleming]

Hi SEC

I still watch CSM - looks like its really turning the corner w.r.t. Mn & Cr - though you wouldn't think so if you listen to Baxter & Co, who are doing their blatant best trying to keep the sp depressed in an effort to make the Gilbertson transaction more attractive.

You would think though, that the numbers will soon start to speak for themselves, no matter what negative spin CSM management put on them.

But yeah some quality assets contribute to a truely diversified mid - tier miner...may well be a few companies regretting they didn't make a play for CSM when they were in all sorts of bother last year.

Cheers

There are now 4 potential bidders for CSM:

TTY
Pallinghurst
Privat Group
Tinfos from Norway

I don' think i can recall a takeover situation with so many publicly confirmed interested parties.

It means the CSM price will be only going one way.

Eg - Privat gave instructions to buy CSM on market up to $4.00 - they ended up paying a max of $3.95....in a takeover they can't offer anything less than their highest on market purcashe - therefore its clear to me that they have set themselves up for a $4.00 offer if required.

Why they all didn't get involved last year when the sp was 1/2 what it was now and sentiment towards CSM was awful, i dunno.

[SEC]

SF, you had gone all quiet on CSM I thought you'd sold out!

I don't think Privat is serious in a takeover, all they seem to be interested in is a blocking stake.

The FY announcement was encouraging in that they've contained costs in their Mn and Cr operations - Mn +3% and Cr -7%, a good effort considering costs are typically going up 10% across the resource srctor. I was highly critical of their allowing costs to spiral out of control last year. Ni is the blot but the cost increases were already flagged and a lot of the increase (possibly half) was due to royalties.

I refuse to sell to Gilbo at $3.30 (actually I'll probably refuse to sell to Gilbo at any price) but unfortunately Kiernan is dithering with his revised bid. Let's hope Tinfos offer something decent over $4.

SEC

[steve fleming]

I refuse to sell to Gilbo at $3.30 (actually I'll probably refuse to sell to Gilbo at any price) but unfortunately Kiernan is dithering with his revised bid. Let's hope Tinfos offer something decent over $4.

SEC

Well Gilbertson won't give up easily...and the telemarketers he has got working for him are starting to p*ss me off as well.

He's increased his offer to $3.60 tonite, up 30 cents....and what was his inital offer - $2.30??

He's obviouosly trying to grab as much as he can before the Europeans bid....would be absolutely crazy to sell given how "in play" CSM is!!

[SEC]

Gilbo's done it again - his 4th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I'll treat it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

Heh, since my holdings are in a nominee account my broker gets to put up with the telemarketers. I cheerfully told him to tell Gilbo to take a running jump.

SEC

[SEC]

Wow - a whole 700 shares (=0.0003% of available shares) sold at $3.60 this morning.

Gilbo is well and truly on his way to a 19.9% holding.

SEC

[steve fleming]

Gilbo's done it again - his 4th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I'll treat it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

Heh, since my holdings are in a nominee account my broker gets to put up with the telemarketers. I cheerfully told him to tell Gilbo to take a running jump.

SEC

Yeah, well listening to some backpacker kid stumble his way through trying to convince me why i should accept the offer was kind of amusing the first time, the 2nd & 3rd times weren't as fun.

Anyway MK has come out of this whole process looking like a real amateur, full of hot air as per usual, getting the TOV panel offside and acheiving pretty much nothing yet. If it wasn't for his best mate, the MD of Noble, MK would be nothing.

[SEC]

About 12.5 million shares traded at $3.65 in the first half hour today. Surely not Pallinghurst doing a dodgy deal? It's never a dull day for a CSM holder at the moment....

Gilbo announced his generous on-market offer to be closed as of 1pm today. Well done - an extra 0.003% to your holding.

Some of the Hotcopperites share my view that Gilbo has completely botched his bid for CSM. A killer blow earlier on would have done the trick but he was being too cheap.

SEC

[steve fleming]

There are now 4 potential bidders for CSM:

TTY
Pallinghurst
Privat Group
Tinfos from Norway

I don' think i can recall a takeover situation with so many publicly confirmed interested parties.

It means the CSM price will be only going one way.

Eg - Privat gave instructions to buy CSM on market up to $4.00 - they ended up paying a max of $3.95....in a takeover they can't offer anything less than their highest on market purcashe - therefore its clear to me that they have set themselves up for a $4.00 offer if required .



Well close enough...Privat came in with an initial $3.95 offer.

The CSM board are looking more stupid by the day, having initially accepted Pallinghursts $2.30 proposal without hesitation.

Hope lots of sharetraders got on board this one and are making a killing.

[SEC]

Finally we have a bidder who is paying a premium over the prevailing price. Surprised it was Privat (good call Steve).

So it was Tinfos who bought the swag of shares yesterday. Yes Steve, 4 interested parties - but probably only two potential serious bidders (and I exclude Gilbo since he hasn't put in a serious bid yet).

Laughed out loud at Territory's SSH notice ---- strewth, I hold more shares than them!

Return 66% in 4 months and counting....

SEC

[OneUp]

Does anyone know much about OMH?

A vertically integrated manganese producer/trader/smelter with links to China.

$200m market cap.

Production well up last few months and 1H08 should be a corker given 140% manganese price hike. Given OMHs' relatively low profile could be some value here.



OMH now up 40% over the last month, and doubled in 3.

CSM a pedestrian 10% over the last month, and 40% in 3.

Some tidy profits available on CSM but the killing is being made on OMH.

[Dazza]

ah im in at 2.60 lol

so very good returns, dunno what to do though, sell out now or wait for counterbid...

[OneUp]

This is turning out to be a good game of poker.

Raise and re-raise. Pallinghurst $4.10 per share.

Whose got the pocket aces? We shareholders do....not being bluffed out of my shares.

Still the river to come...and another round of bets.

[steve fleming]

Where there is smoke, there is fire....i would say a Kiernan lead TTY/Noble bid is only a matter of days away...at least before the SoA meeting scheduled for 17 July.

A bidding war will be excellent for CSM!!

Brian Gilbertson v Michael Kiernan

Will be quite a battle...hopefully!

And Dazza, have tonite completed my proxies voting no for both accounts i hold CSM in.

Well the bidding war HAS turned out to be excellent for CSM - up $1.50 from the $2.55 when i posted this a couple of months ago, and looks like going a lot higher now.

A fantastic example of free market corporate activity assisting in realising value for the benefit of shareholders.

[OneUp]

Will be interesting to see whether OMH gets another "free ride" tomorrow. Of academic interest only, unfortunately, as I only hold CSM.

Steve what do you think the winning bidder will have to pay?

I'm thinking $4.70.

[steve fleming]

Will be interesting to see whether OMH gets another "free ride" tomorrow. Of academic interest only, unfortunately, as I only hold CSM.

Steve what do you think the winning bidder will have to pay?

I'm thinking $4.70.

I'm pretty sure Pallinghurst won't win.

Remember that they accumulated their 5% stake at $3.30, so will make a nice profit selling out at $4.50+, plus their break fee, which will see them do OK out of it.

I reckon either a cashed up Tinfos or Privat, who are both desperate to secure CSM's Mn supply, will make the knock out bid close to $5.00.

[Dazza]

FUNTAAAAAAAAAAAASTAIC

MUAHAHHAHAH

great stuff team

gotta thank steve and sec for posting up the relevant posts

the buy at 2.60 was so great muahahha :D

$5 here we come IMO

[SEC]

Gilbo's done it again - his 4th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I'll treat it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

SEC

Gilbo's done it yet again - his 5th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I'll treat it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

When will he ever learn??????

SEC

[OneUp]

Well the bidding war HAS turned out to be excellent for CSM - up $1.50 from the $2.55 when i posted this a couple of months ago, and looks like going a lot higher now.



Yes that was a great call mate!

[SEC]

What a classic turnaround story.

CSM closed at a record high $4.50 - price and volume surged in the last half hour. Is this the prelude to the final knockout bid?

My belief is that CSM at $4.50 is now fair value, forward PE of 8 now broadly in line with similar size resource stocks. Anything more is a bonus but am now happy to sell to the highest bidder above $4.50 (unless it's Gilbo).

Interesting to note UBS now on the share register, Steve do you reckon they're buying on behalf of hedge funds?

SEC

[steve fleming]

What a classic turnaround story.

CSM closed at a record high $4.50 - price and volume surged in the last half hour. Is this the prelude to the final knockout bid?

My belief is that CSM at $4.50 is now fair value, forward PE of 8 now broadly in line with similar size resource stocks. Anything more is a bonus but am now happy to sell to the highest bidder above $4.50 (unless it's Gilbo).

Interesting to note UBS now on the share register, Steve do you reckon they're buying on behalf of hedge funds?

SEC

Yes I agree SEC at $4.50, CSM looks reasonably priced now....however with 3 cashed up parties appearing desperate to control CSM's assets, then rational decision making goes ot the window.

UBS's buying has really picked up the last couple of weeks, so would make sense to be hedge funds....looks like they've been doing quite a bit of bot trading as well.

Received 2 more calls tonite from Gilb's hacks, asking if i was to accept the offer...seriously, at least 10 calls from them now (over 2 accounts/over the last few weeks)....i told the guy did he seriuosly expect me to sell for $4.10 if i could sell them on market at $4.50?? at least he was good enough to laugh and acknowledged i had a point.

[shasta]

Yes I agree SEC at $4.50, CSM looks reasonably priced now....however with 3 cashed up parties appearing desperate to control CSM's assets, then rational decision making goes ot the window.

UBS's buying has really picked up the last couple of weeks, so would make sense to be hedge funds....looks like they've been doing quite a bit of bot trading as well.

Received 2 more calls tonite from Gilb's hacks, asking if i was to accept the offer...seriously, at least 10 calls from them now (over 2 accounts/over the last few weeks)....i told the guy did he seriuosly expect me to sell for $4.10 if i could sell them on market at $4.50?? at least he was good enough to laugh and acknowledged i had a point.

Steve/SEC

Been watching this unfold from the cheap seats...

Where's that snake Kiernan in all this, has TTY's offer failed? :D

[steve fleming]

Steve/SEC

Been watching this unfold from the cheap seats...

Where's that snake Kiernan in all this, has TTY's offer failed? :D

Kiernan turned out to be pretty much all talk.

Though that really comes as no surprise!

[shasta]

Kiernan turned out to be pretty much all talk.

Though that really comes as no surprise!

Figured as much...:cool:

[SEC]

$4.50 revised offer by Palmary and the market price once again exceeds the prevailing bid price.

Gilbo, you must be seething. If only you offered a knockout price first up. You would have got your 60% pretty quick before the Mn price really started to take off. Now the going price is more than double what you initially offered. This has been a great example of how not to mount a takeover.

I think it's pretty close to the end game now. I'm quite keen to book the 90+% profit soon - after buying up in last month's bout of panic I'm a bit low in % cash compared to what I feel comfortable with.

SEC

[OneUp]

I'm happy to see this through to conclusion.

We have a put option only 3&#37; below current market price if the general market tanks or no other bidders emerge, and still maybe 10% upside.

[steve fleming]

FUNTAAAAAAAAAAAASTAIC

MUAHAHHAHAH

great stuff team

gotta thank steve and sec for posting up the relevant posts

the buy at 2.60 was so great muahahha :D

$5 here we come IMO

Well you got your $5 yesterday Dazza. Amazing stuff.

As per usual, Friday afternoon again sees some relentless buying of CSM.

Rumours are that Tinfos has lost interest, but Pallinghurst and Privat certainly have not.

You'd have to think seriously though that there can't be too much left in it past $5.

[Dazza]

and im still holding lol!!

[steve fleming]

unbelievable.

Powered past $5 on volume of $20m.

Best performing ASX200 stock this year?

[SEC]

There were market doubts when CSM dropped 14c this morning but plenty of buying made $5 a floor price. The hedge funds via UBS have increased their stake lately and it would not surprise me if it were the hedge funds again active today. I look forward to the next SSH notice...

SF, I think Fortescue is the best performer in the ASX200 so far this year. According to my stockpick list, CSM would be 2nd :), followed by MGX, SMY, MCR :), WOR :), IGO :), and BHP.

Oh and I believe you're infringing copyright by also having a fat obnoxious cartoon character as an avatar :D

SEC

[Huang Chung]

Four :) in the top seven SEC.....

Guess we'll just have to respect your authoritarrrr. :D

[steve fleming]

Nice of CSM to provide an update on Mindy Mindy last week.

Its been about 18 months since they last provided an update.

Mindy Mindy has an estimated 200mt at 58% Fe, and was originally intended to be in production by 2008.

In true CSM style this timeframe has probably slipped a couple of years, however it remains a not-insignifcant long term asset for CSM.

[Dazza]

what happened to CSM today?

5.44 what da!!!

and to tink last week i was gonna shell out at $5 if it got back there again...

any news folks?

i thgouth the europeans had pretty much got this under their belt

surely BG doesnt have a chance now?

[steve fleming]

Went absolutely ballistic about 3.30.

The long awaited Tinfos bid possibly? i don't know. There's been so many twists turns in this saga i wouldn't count anything out.

[SEC]

Gilbo's done it again - his 4th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I'll treat it with contempt just like his previous offerings.
SEC


Gilbo's done it yet again - his 5th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I'll treat it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

When will he ever learn??????

SEC

Gilbo did it yet again a couple of weeks ago - his 6th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I've treated it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

I don't think he'll ever learn....

But seriously, when is this friggin saga going to end? Covert accumulation of 17.7% by some dodgy outfit, Takeovers Panel involvement, an entire book can be written about this.

I can only hope that once the Takeovers Panel adjudicates on the legitimacy of the Aussie Axe, Palmary will finally put in the killer bid....

SEC

[OneUp]

OMH hit $2 yesterday, up from 20c early this year. Still no interest.

[SEC]

Oneup, for comparison what is OMH's forward PE for 08 and 09? CSM is trading on 08 and 09 PE multiples of 8 and 9.

Interesting to note Xstrata is prepared to pay 08 and 09 PE multiples of 17 and 15 for Jubilee.

SEC

[OneUp]

Oneup, for comparison what is OMH's forward PE for 08 and 09? CSM is trading on 08 and 09 PE multiples of 8 and 9.

Interesting to note Xstrata is prepared to pay 08 and 09 PE multiples of 17 and 15 for Jubilee.

SEC

OMH's P/E is the great unknown. No analysts following as far as I know.

Director appears to think enough is enough and has sold shares on market.

[SEC]

OMH's P/E is the great unknown. No analysts following as far as I know.

That's the problem. Although I wouldn't classify OMH as a spec play since it is in production and generating profits, it is not in any index and is not covered by any broker. So it may well be trading on a forward PE of 20 and the only reason it's got to $2 may be momentum trading by retail investors/traders, leaving it very vulnerable to a nasty correction.

My style only - I only choose ASX300 stocks where the brokers have done all the hard work to value a stock and figure out forward PEs. You can also margin lend against them and there are always plenty of multi-baggers amongst them in any given year so if you research well you get rewarded while minimising risks such as guessing forward PEs.

SEC

[steve fleming]

Gilbo did it yet again a couple of weeks ago - his 6th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price. I've treated it with contempt just like his previous offerings.

I don't think he'll ever learn....

But seriously, when is this friggin saga going to end? Covert accumulation of 17.7% by some dodgy outfit, Takeovers Panel involvement, an entire book can be written about this.

I can only hope that once the Takeovers Panel adjudicates on the legitimacy of the Aussie Axe, Palmary will finally put in the killer bid....

SEC

This saga is certainly keeping the TOP on their toes.

They have come out tonite declaring Pallinghursts "top up" offer unacceptable and any shareholders who accepted the offer have the right to withdraw.....an absolute debacle.

Now what will they do to the Palmary offer when they find that Palmary have failed to comply with numerous Corporations Act, Takeover Regulations and the FATA???

[Dazza]

sec and s.fleming still holding?

im still holding mine eh..... dunno why.. shoulda sold at 5.40 lol :P

[SEC]

So the Aussie Axe wasn't fair dinkum after all.

Gilbo/Pallinghurst have been shown to be rank amateurs constantly trying to get CSM on the cheap and it's spectacularly backfired on them.

On the other hand, one could speculate the Privat stakeholders in their various guises are behaving like corporate crooks.

Given continuing strong manganese prices and the significant re-rating of mid-tier miners since the sub prime fallout and PE expansion since the JBM bid I actually think that if there was no takeover CSM would be trading at least at the current price if not higher. As Oneup has pointed out, look at how OMH, a pure manganese player has performed in the past few months.

Also note that when CSM was trading at around $4.50 in mid 2005, manganese prices were around $4.50/dmtu. Now the share price is only 10% higher yet the manganese prices are around $8 - 9/dmtu. CSM still earns the bulk of its revenue from manganese now as it did in 2005.

SEC (CSM)

[steve fleming]

Went absolutely ballistic about 3.30.

The long awaited Tinfos bid possibly? i don't know. There's been so many twists turns in this saga i wouldn't count anything out.

"The revised offer price appears to be substantially below the prices recently paid by the Ukrainian brokers who had collectively amassed a substantial undisclosed stake in CSM"

So it was the dodgy Ukrainians that pumped the price up that day.

We now have a $4.70 floor with plenty of upside as both sides remain committed to see the deal through to the end.

Still waiting for the knockout bid.

[SEC]

My belief is that CSM at $4.50 is now fair value, forward PE of 8 now broadly in line with similar size resource stocks. Anything more is a bonus but am now happy to sell to the highest bidder above $4.50 (unless it's Gilbo).


I'm eating those words now - I think $4.50 is now too cheap given the significant PE expansion by similar size resource stocks over the past 2 months. So I'm not happy to sell...

For the market price to come within 3c of the offer price yesterday was just insane. Once the Takeovers Panel final orders were made and the stalemate ended it was obvious it would be GAME ON again. Was seriously thinking of topping up yesterday, but the revised Palmary bid beat me to it. When golden buying opportunities occur like yesterday you have to be quick...

So what's Gilbo going to do now? Put in a 7th consecutive offer at no premium to the prevailing market price?

SEC

[Huang Chung]

You've riden this pony very nicely SEC. Any guesses as to what the final price will be around?

[SEC]

You've riden this pony very nicely SEC. Any guesses as to what the final price will be around?

Perhaps $5.25 - $5.50, what those dodgy Ukranian brokers were paying last month. But not before another bid by Gilbo.

Palmary is likely to win as Gilbo is just too cheap and Bogolyubov has some powerful friends...

SEC

PS Captain and Tennille avatar??? you're one sick puppy:eek:

[Huang Chung]

I was after a 'Brotherhood of Man' avatar, but couldn't find a good one...:D

[Huang Chung]

Game, set and match.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Palmary-ups-bid-for-ConsMin/2007/12/04/1196530671248.html

Well done SEC.

[SEC]

Thanks HC. $5 is a bit below my expectations and at that price Palmary are getting CSM cheap. But I was happy to sit this one out knowing CSM was worth a *lot* more than what Gilbo was prepared to pay back in April and pocket a 100+&#37; return in less than 8 months for my efforts.

Interesting to see Gilbo finally gave up, but he'll make a nice profit for his troubles. I suspect he'll be back on the scene mounting a takeover of another miner soon. Hopefully he'll learn from his mistakes on how not to mount a takeover. Let's see, he might want to look at other miners with market caps and potential similar to CSM - and I have quite a few of these - IGO MCR KZL and SRL. Or perhaps PEM...

SEC

[SEC]

I've taken advantage of the arbitrage and liquidity and baled out today after another 10+% traded at $5.00. Rather $5 now and cashed up for opportunities than $5 next month. I think the fat lady's about to sing, Palmary must be close to 50%. Surprised CSM is trading on or slightly above the offer price, usually the takeover target at this advanced stage trades at a slight discount (like JBM).

SEC

[steve fleming]

I've taken advantage of the arbitrage and liquidity and baled out today after another 10+% traded at $5.00. Rather $5 now and cashed up for opportunities than $5 next month. I think the fat lady's about to sing, Palmary must be close to 50%. Surprised CSM is trading on or slightly above the offer price, usually the takeover target at this advanced stage trades at a slight discount (like JBM).

SEC

Yes, thanks for the memories indeed.

I sold out last week, rather that, than wait till January 10 to receive the Palmary consideration.

Will still be interesting to follow the CSM story - there will be plenty of corporate action to come, as at the end of the day, Palmary pretty much only cares about the Mn.

That leaves Jabiru, the nickel assets, BC Iron and the FMG JV to deal with/sell off.

[SEC]

Palmary have their 90+% of CSM.....

Shame really, I would have liked to see to have seen CSM still listed just to see what Palmary did to CSM's non-Mn assets.

SEC

[Huang Chung]

Well, if any of our listed miners pick up some of the non-manganese assets or investments we'll find out. I'm very curious to find out what will happen to Palmary's newly acquired 13% stake in Vital Metals. They are now VML's largest shareholder.

[SEC]

HC, I suspect that most of CSM's non-Mn assets may be sold offshore. The Chinese may be interested in Jabiru and the iron assets.

SEC

[steve fleming]

.

Also note that when CSM was trading at around $4.50 in mid 2005, manganese prices were around $4.50/dmtu. Now the share price is only 10% higher yet the manganese prices are around $8 - 9/dmtu. CSM still earns the bulk of its revenue from manganese now as it did in 2005.

SEC (CSM)

Interesting to see that Mn prices have exceeded $16/dtmu recently (for 3Q08)....and everyone was getting excited at $8/dtmu.....nice work Mr Ukrainian billionaire guy.

At least neither Gilbo nor MK managed to get their dirty mits on CSM.

Pretty strong rumours that CSM will bid for BCI (which Baxter IPO'd)....CSM certainly would have the cash.

[shasta]

Interesting to see that Mn prices have exceeded $16/dtmu recently....and everyone was getting excited at $8/dtmu.....nice work Mr Ukrainian guy.

At least neither Gilbo nor MK managed to get their dirty mits on CSM.

Pretty strong rumours that CSM will bid for BCI....CSM certainly would have the cash.

Steve

I seem to be following you around, but i'm very keen on ALK (who own 15% of BCI).

To progress there Gold & Rare Earth projects, i'd imagine they would willingly sell there 9m shares to CSM & take the cash.

At what price though, $1.50 - $2.00 should do it?

[steve fleming]

Steve

I seem to be following you around, but i'm very keen on ALK (who own 15% of BCI).

To progress there Gold & Rare Earth projects, i'd imagine they would willingly sell there 9m shares to CSM & take the cash.

At what price though, $1.50 - $2.00 should do it?

Well if ALK are a willing seller to CSM, then a takeover is pretty much a done deal. I'd imagine there wouldn't be too many shareholders unhappy with $2 Shasta.

Funny, such a takeover might put another Kiernan out of a job - BCI's chairman is MK's brother.

[SEC]

Interesting to see that Mn prices have exceeded $16/dtmu recently (for 3Q08)....and everyone was getting excited at $8/dtmu.....nice work Mr Ukrainian billionaire guy.

I've noted the manganese and nickel prices has run countercyclic to each other for a few years now. Makes sense, when the CrNi 300 series SS gets too expensive due to nickel there is substitution with CrMn 200 series SS for non-industrial applications. However with Mn at record prices the premium will be diminishing and customers will revert back to the superior 300 series SS.

I sense the Mn bubble will burst soon.

SEC