Views on the NZ Dollar Index trends
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Hoop
Yeah I agree..it looks very overweighted to the US$...Why would that be??
Has the US$ bias anything to be with US$ being the international currency?
... ....
EDIT:...of interest...If the devaluing NZ$ accelerating is real and continues..then it may go faster than the A$ devaluing speed.....bye bye parity party?:(
Thanks Hoop,
The trends for NZD are of high interest.
For me the overweight US bias is OK as Global Stock markets are overweight US and also I assume the NZ Super Fund portfolio.
Would appreciate views from anyone about a suitable strategy for managing the global section of an individual portfolio that is invested in managed funds.
Currently hold the two unhedged funds shown.
If NZD switches trend and starts to go down then unhedged is best, if not and January upward trend continues then the reverse.
Assume costs to switch are .75%.
Assume the funds hold pretty much the same asset allocations.
Context: RaboDirect offer 46 managed funds online, please refer data table extract below.
At the end of January 2015 the best performed funds (short term 1 month) included the unhedged global funds. (NZD down against USD and EUR)
At the end of February 2015 the Hedged Funds were now much better than unhedged. (NZD up against USD and EUR)
Data Extract from 28 February 2015 RaboDirect Performance Report
Fund Name -------------------------------------Ranking --------1 Mth -------3 Mths --------6 Mths ------12 Months
AMP Capital Core Hedged Gbl Shares -------1 of 46 --------- 6.19% ------4.80% -------------7.88% -------15.95%
Nikko AM Global Equity Hedged Fund -------2 of 46 ---------5.07% ------- 5.07% ------------7.79% -------16.06%
Nikko AM Global Equity Unhedged Fund ---23 of 46 ---------1.11% --------6.18% ---------12.93% --------18.80%
AMP Capital Core Global Shares Fund ------26 of 46 --------0.94% ---------6.56% ---------14.28% ------19.53%
Options include:
1 Status Quo
2 Switch all to unhedged
3 50% 50% hedged/unhedged or some other split
Thanks and regards
1 Attachment(s)
Rustles through his bag of tricks.......
That, my good man, is a "Bear flag", so the most likely scenario is an eventual breakdown out of the rising consolidation. It could have another couple of cracks at the top of the range before this occurs.
Attachment 7171
E & OE, of course
Actually, looks more like a rising wedge, but the proposed outcome is the same: it's a consolidation after a sharp move, to be followed by a resumption of the prior trend