http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/VIX525.gif
Printable View
Who are you shorting through doctor?
Phaedrus,
How low are we going? 3100? What's your best estimate?
Cheers
Phaedrus , from what I have gathered you are a medium-long term investor using TA for entry & exit points. Correct? Would you be moving to cash at the markets current situation? Can you see the market falling alot further from your indicators? Thanks 4be
Bermuda and 4be, I have no idea how low the market will go. Neither has anyone else. What I do know is that right now it is very weak and still falling, a time for caution. For me, this means no buying until the market begins to show some sign of recovery - when the plot turns light green, for example.
I began moving to cash 3 weeks ago when the Market Strength Indicator first flagged significant weakness (the chart plot turned red). I haven't got much left to sell!
I've been trying to post a 2 year chart of the XJO (monthly scale) showing RSI.
Can anyone help me with this please?
I actually think this is an over reaction by the markets. But then who is brave enough to dip their toes in this market. I just have a gut feeling there is alot of money to be made in this market if you are game enough.
Its going to take more than "gut feeling" to turn this market around, I'm afraid - and isn't everyone "afraid"! FTSE down around 3% tonight. And I see that tensions on the Korean Peninsula are now being touted as a further threat - don't forget that the Korean War never officially ended, there was simply a "temporary" truce.
Hi Serpie,
If the picture is on the net, hit reply and press the 'insert picture' button then enter the link to its location. If its off your computer, go to http://www.iforce.co.nz/ and upload the file... It will give you a link which you can then enter as above.
U.S Market rebounding late in the day, good to see.. My holdings have been pared back to almost zero, I've actually followed Phaedrus' indicators (ninjad RSI, +/- DMI, stochastic etc parameters into my own ALL ORDS chart - Hope this is ok Phaedrus :) ) and its saved me a good amount of money. I have a tiny long term holding in AVB which isn't worth selling, and I'm holding some NGE (so close to spud!! And holding up well).
Here you are Serpie. This is straight from IncredibleCharts, but it uses weekly data points rather than the monthly you requested. A 2 year monthly chart has insufficient data points to give any meaningful interpretation, so I have used a weekly scale.
The RSI buy/sell points correspond quite closely with those derived from my Market Strength chart.
Was your difficulty with viewing/creating the chart, or with posting it?
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...sPB/XJO526.gif
S&P 500 up for the day!!!.....VIX well below 40 and heading down. It will be interesting to see where the ASX goes today as the ASX was influenced by the US futrues y'day.
Gazprom
Probably none. When we look back over decades of Index data, no obvious support/resistance can be seen at the 2000, 3000, 4000 or 5000 levels.
A 50% retracement from the April high would take the AllOrds down to 4067.9.
Have you seen the recent study by Professor Roy Batchelor and Richard Ramyar? They found no evidence that Fibonacci numbers work with Indices. They tested nearly 90 years of history of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (1914-2002) and found no indication that trends tend to reverse at 50% retracements, 61.8% retracements, or any other Fibonacci level. Or at any other number.
http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/media/sto...004_65846.html
Thanks Phaedrus,
I was having trouble posting it. I use The Bourse software and the only way to print a chart is to do a screen capture, so the file size is too big.
The weekly chart doesn't show it as clearly (although still may have had you thinking about pulling out in late October 09 and therefore still ahead as opposed to now) but on the monthly chart the XJO bounced straight off overbought (@80) in April, and also illustrates the market bottom in February 09. All with the benefit of hindsight of course, but RSI is always up to date.
I've always been too focussed on individual stocks, rather than paying attention to the market as a whole, so I'm trying to take the blinkers off and look at the big picture a little more.
While the monthly chart is possibly too slow, it's got to be something worth paying a lot more attention to.
Thanks again Phaedrus, and I'd appreciate your (or anyone's) comments.
Can I just ask a question, slightly off topic. With the ASX website, I can't seem to find any quick link showing the earnings/share or the P/E ratio like is in the summary page for each stock on the NZX website.
Any links or help with this would be great, as I've just been looking at annual reports and doing my own calculations for P/E ratios, etc, which is very time consuming.
Serpie - agree with you that one needs to see what the sentiment of the market is as a whole .... and then focus on your individual stocks
I keep my own version of a weekly chart of the ASX200 as my market indicator .... not ding the sophisticated stuff Phaedrus does but even a weekly chart takes out a lot of the daily noise and mediim to longer trends are easier to see
Its amazing how odten you can draw straight lines on charts to get the underlying trends
Agreed W69,
It seems to make more sense to step into a friendly environment, and then try to make some money, than to tough it out when bullets are flying past your ears.
and this joker sell sell please sell your shares before its too late
And people on this site follow the DOW Theory
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph
No comment from me
jeez these guys at Business Spectator are happy today
Now a rout is about to happen
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph
Phaedrus' indicators have been serving me well ..my +DMI/-DMI is a little out for some reason.. But apart from that:
http://iforce.co.nz/i/gsueyjn4.bmp
If you act on the indicators when at least 3 of them fire (there's 5 if you include the 90 day EMA) you would have (and will continue to, I'm assuming) do well
Is everyone a technical expert now?
Try this site http://markets.smh.com.au/apps/qt/index.ac
The question on everyone's mind now...... is this a DEAD CAT bounce or the BOTTOM of the market?
There are now a number of stocks trading below PEs of 8-7x which is very cheap. That is of cos assuming they can still meet forecast.
I also read this book recently. It certainly got me thinking about manipulation of the markets.
I agree with your comments re current situation, have been thinking the same!
KABOOM!
Europe is up strongly.
remy,
look back
General question:
Does this include long term holds as well if they say breach the 200MA or is it mainly on the MSI indicator.
Correct me if I am wrong, but I think you have said in essence, that once the MSI shows weakness (turns red) then you act on the other sell signals such as trendlines etc?
I have sold some of my long term holds due to this (CBA for example), then when would you look to get back in once the MSI Turns light green ? or and when other buy signals trigger -
Appreciate your "expertise" Phaedrus
Here's a guy saying the DJIA is forming a 20 year head + shoulders pattern.... and we're on our way back to 4500 on the DOW.....
http://williamtellstradecraft.blogsp...shoulders.html
Any TA experts out there care to comment on his tealeaves?
http://finance.yahoo.com/expert/arti...hricher/221388
Dead cat bounce!!
meow!
I am enjoying the bouncing cat...hope it continues to bounce next week.=)=)
Yes I get this feeling that it is only temporary upward movement - given the markets "today" it seems a large jump to be sustained
Seems to be a bit of a disparity between what you want to happen... and what is actually happening
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts?s=^A...urce=undefined
Im no expert but looks like an excuse to fill a web page to me Matty:lol:
Hey whats all this talk about dead cats? I reckon its time to get the cheque book and pen at the ready. Im lookin to buy back my stocks over the next week depending on what transpires over the next two to three days.
Was just lookin over the All Ords stocks and their performance for today and noticed something really funny.
ADY is still on the list :scared:
Strat,
I am with you. The cat is still bouncing around and as long it doesn't die, it is all good in the long run. I had the cheque book out right through and overall it is ok.
I reiterate my philosophy: add to your positions in a falling market provided the reasons for purchasing the stock still hold in the current environment. Obviously, if you are an excellent FA and TA person, you can exit and enter to minimise losses in certain market conditions.
Gazprom
Strat,
I wasn't implying that you agree with averaging down - so apologies for any inference concerning that. I was saying that I agree with you re the cat and the bounce and your sentiments re getting the cheque book out.
However, I do believe in averaging down on the basis that I have stated before. It has worked for me before and I have averaged down during this last 3 week period and am sure that it will be very rewarding.
Gazprom
I'm going to buy stocks and then also a trampoline. I'll put the trampoline under the cat. Nice!
No body has mentioned the bear.....denial?
It's not the same guy who claimed that his little boy was trapped in a hot air balloon flying across the US is it Matty? Some guys will do anything to get their name in the paper.
I reckon we're in for a good couple of weeks. Everything I was watching through May was falling slowly on light volume. No buyers but not many sellers either. Still loads on money sitting on the sideline (like Stratski) waiting for a pull back to enter. Maybe now is the time to take a stake in oversold companies with strong business models.
Of course North Korea might throw a spanner in the works and nuke something.
The DOW had another pretty average day. Monday will be interesting.
Down 122 points is just another pretty average day? A drop of 1.2%? If that's "pretty average", let's hope it doesn't continue!!!!
The odds are Monday will be down, rather than interesting. We follow the Dow more often than not.
http://thewildinvestor.com/a-long-way-down/
How low can it go?
Why did you quote yourself strat?
Likes talking to himslef ENP ,some say the most intelligent conversation you can have :-)
Or an update on his thoughts of where we are at?
Haha, love your work Strat.
DOW up a whopping 2.25% overnight and not a peep from anyone? Goes to show how freaked out everyone is with this volatility.
DOW futures green currently for tomorrow, ASX futures up around 1.8%. Oil and Gold in the green also.
Out of all of the above, the fact that oil is rising is probably the signal I'm most happiest with; pricing of commodities seems to be a reasonably accurate smoothed indicator of underlying economic health lately (more so than sharemarket indices...IMO only)
True, as long as the downswings are slow enough that you can get out of the way without too much of a haircut, and the upswings long enough that they actually trigger buy signals!
Still.. the ASX is at Aug09 levels (I think offhand US markets are back to May/June09 levels).. So, all good.
Closed at 4506 ...retesting Bull / Bear primary resistance line... Could make for an interesting day tomorrow
good evening mr hoopla.
if you were a betting man, which way would you bet its going to jump; over or under resistance? what do the stars say?
No clear direction with leading indicators and the market is still a bear until a trend reversal appears so I'm a pessimist atm..Also remember that spikes in the VIX usually occur at the beginning and ends of major market events so I'm not going to be overly optimistic for a while yet ...Breaking the downtrend line and the 4500 all at once is good news but its not the "popping of champagne" event. The 4500 line was a big deal when the index fell but its the 4680 line that becomes all important once the primary 4500 resistance line is broken back into a support.
so..
Yes there is a good chance of a jump over 4500 but it doesn't mean the correction is over because we are still in bear market, so beware of a suckers rally. If this next rally goes above 4680 would make my worries of a sucker rally disappear. The 4680 (4700) line is the entry point back into a bull market. (higher high).
Anyway...referring to Phaedrus' charts the MSI will probably lose its reddish glow around that 4700 if that level was quickly regained.... so watch his charts.
As for the stars ....ask Yogi
thanks for the reply.
wouldn't want it fall below 4300 today would we
I think I'll waiy until it is down in the low 3000's again
now is not the time to be a hero. phaedrus has proven his charts work. Best listen and put yourself on a buying freeze. This market could be at 4,000 within a matter of days if the selling gathers in intensity.
Footsie: Just to clear up any misunderstanding: I have the greatest respect for Phaedrus' charts and am only too well aware they "work" as you put it. I am basically in a buying freeze myself at the moment, except for what I term "special situations", e.g. I invite you to have a peek at the HUN story/charts and you might even be able to convince yourself that a few judiciously timed purchases could be quite rewarding.
Oh boy. I can't wait for Phaedrus and his post on "judicious timing", coming up real soon I suspect :)
Disc : Studying, researching, adding to watchlist. Not buying yet though.
not sure when independant thinking became such a crime
It is nasty out there. Lets see what tonight brings.
once again the chart is red... and has been accurate so far... after every up day or bounce, the MSI stays red, and then down we go again. Phaedrus' chart is the best thing to ever come out of my Sharetrader experience... bar none. Very lucky to have access to it.
Thanks P! Most of us appreciate it!
You guys can mock all you like, but let me tell you what my one modest purchase at the start of today was: ARP - check it out. Time may well prove that it was "injudicious" but we shall see. You will just have to allow me my little "indiscretion". (SLR is also on my watchlist, and I have paid the price for not acting on the signals).
And in relation to HUN: No, I did not buy any more today. However, my recent purchase at 70c during the "red alert" paid off handsomely. So, go and laugh that one off!
As regular readers well know, I also am a confirmed "worshipper" of Phaedrus. However, I would not follow him into a fiery furnace, and I am sure he would not expect me to!
There now, I feel better.
Have a good week everyone.
Yours affectionately,
COLIN, the independent thinker.
Well done, Colin.
During the GFC1, I made a few calculations at one point that showed that 96% of ASX stocks fell over the period Dec 2007 to Nov 2008. About 75% of those that rose were small-cap stocks - market cap under $100m and often illiquid. In fact, if you required a minimum return of 10% to be worth the market risk and were only invested in stocks with market cap above $100m, then by my calculations, there were only about 12 stocks on the entire ASX that could have got that. The conclusion was that in a broad market downturn, that a long-term holder was almost guaranteed to lose money.
Despite that, my records show that I made quite a few good purchases during the period when I felt particular stocks had been beaten up beyond reason.
"It's like the sharemarkets around the world have taken viagra due to government stimulus and now the viagra is wearing off"
Found that quote this morning. Quite funny. Hope everyone had an enjoyable long weekend.
Hi Colin
I just had a look at HUN
Would be interested in the signals that triggered the purchase.
I see it as being a buy a few weeks ago and now a sell or at least putting a tight stop in place.
Not gettin at ya in any way ;) just trying to learn new ideas myself
what a funny old world. all ords goes blue.
Old Ben B ... you don't 'take this guy seriously even if he runs the Fed' ......... in quotes that remark .... repeating your comment on that guy Hussman (the PhD guy) .... funny that Hussman is also mentioned in this Australian article today ..... ends with the comment "Now we are seeing some of the fearful results of Obama's and Bernanke's ignorance. It shows you what can happen when professors face the real world. Yes, Obama and Bernanke were both professors.”
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph
I think we better make our own minds up eh Belg .... what you read is a load of crap
Gotta agree with you there. Guys like Obama as president & Bernanke in charge of the Fed should scare the bejeezus out of every right-thinking American. Sheesh! As if Bush wasn't bad enough...
These guys think they can simply wind up their printing presses and hey presto! ... no more debt, no more GFC, no more meltdown, no more recession.
Creating paper money to solve today's real problems is like painting a room without doing the prep....it looks good for a while but pretty soon everyone who comes to visit sees what a 5hit job you've done. The bill for this generations profligacy may not rest with this generation but it will fall due.
Economic growth is not economic growth if it is not backed by real savings. A is A.
Z
Hmmm.
Obama will do what his advisers tell him to do and the Fed will do what ever is good for the Fed
Thanks, Strat. You're a brick. (When I was younger that term was a compliment - with the passing of the years I do hope that it is still seen as such, but one can never be too sure these days!)
Anyway, as regards my two forays into HUN: I cannot claim any particular technical expertise in coming to my buy/sell decisions other than that I:
1. Study the simple price movement trend of the individual share, also comparing it with its peers and with the market generally,
2. Study the buying versus selling strength, and watch any changes in the relative trends,
3. satisfy myself on the fundamentals, industry trends and the like.
Perhaps I'm really a "hybrid" investor, i.e. main power source is internal combustion (TA) but supplemented by FA.
I agree that HUN is again losing strength, and I would probably be well advised to once more take profit and wait for the next uptick.
1927-1933 Chart of Pompous Prognosticators http://www.gold-eagle.com/images/clear.gif http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...mour062001.gif Chart locations are an approximate indication only
- "We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
- "I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928 "There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928- "No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928
- "There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
- "Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929 "This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929
"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929
"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929- "This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929 "Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929- "The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929 "Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929
"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929
"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929- "... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929 "The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929
"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929
"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929- "I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929 "I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929
"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929- "For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930
- "...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930
- "There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930
- "The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930 "... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930- "... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930
- "While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930 "...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930
"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930- "... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930
- "... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930
- "We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930
- "Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931
- "All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
Colin J. Seymour, June 2001
http://www.users.dircon.co.uk/~netking
20 June 2001
From: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials...our062001.html
According to this page Colin, at a stretch you could be calling me a cold hearted dim witted drugie :lol::lol::lol::blush:
http://onlineslangdictionary.com/definition+of/brick
but Im old enough to know what you meant :D
The problem is that it's impossible to tell who is right until they are wrong.
good news out of china turned the day around. hang seng strong tonight, dow futures green. for now at least the rot has stopped, just like the worm to turn up. maybe now those p/e ratios are back in balance hoop, we can get back to business?
KABOOM!
Anyone buying or is this a dead cat bounce?