SUM - Summerset Group

New 52 week high! Clap clap clap

Just something I was wondering about, and to quantify, I have done no research. All these retirement village operators have been building units through the years of the leaky building fiasco. Has there ever been any indications of possible issues at any of the villages? They look like fairly traditional builds but it was just a random thought. Apologies if this has previously been addressed or is inappropriate.

Yea i just bought in at 2.74. I sold out at 2.59 just before the run this last week for ryman. realised this has higher returns so back to this. silly me should of just stayed. living up to my username

In at $2.66 a few days ago. Already up to $2.80 today. I must admit that being part of the sharetader community has lifted my strike rate.

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Originally Posted by moosie_900

lol, not really matey, we're all onto a winner here, short and long term holders. Mooses follow clowns you know...

UPDATE: Radar lock, incoming Bulls! ;)

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yip sure does look like its on the fast track to $3

Reading through the recent posts here it seems to me that Summerset has become:

the NEW SHARETRADER SPECULATIVE SHARE :scared:.

Best wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: Own Some SUM

Disc: please do not be offended by this post unless you really want to be.

All I can say is ...thank goodness that folk on this site have never never ever been found to have been found "ramping"...a particular share.

Now if we could discuss CEN.......

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Troyvdh, you surely aren't suggesting people would go out and buy shares because they read some comment on the internet from someone writing under a pseudonym?

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Jonathan Lebed haha he had multiple

Is this better than expected? Seems to me like they are down 1 unit on 2012 and less than the 95 sparky suggested. The new unit sales are well up though.

FY13 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS

	1Q13 Actual
New sales	64
Resales	25
Total	89

FY12 SALES OF OCCUPATION RIGHTS

	1Q12 Actual	2Q12 Actual	3Q12 Actual	4Q12 Actual	FY12 Actual
New sales	38	45	41	43	167
Resales	52	36	45	31	164
Total	90	81	86	74	331

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

What we don't know is the revenue associated with sales - are they getting a bigger price that they were a year ago - the answer is likely yes, given we know new construction margins are increasing and the overall rise in the property market.

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Also depends where these units were sold. The increase in Auckland property prices (10.4%) is much greater than those in Dunedin (3.7%) http://www.qv.co.nz/onlinereports/propertyvaluemap.htm.

Disclaimer: I am not feeling any less positive about this company, just trying to understand how to analyse the announcement by playing devils advocate.

Best not to get to hung up on an individual quarters figures, look for the underlying trends.

Remember that the sale of a new unit is a lot better for the operational cash flow than a resale.

As long as the number of new units sold keeps going up then things are OK.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

So as the Summerset sets at $2.84 it is just 2 millidollars below my current present value calculation for the same.

See markets are sometimes right :).

I have a value of $3.27 for a years time and a quick look at ft.com reveals that brokers consensus varies from $2.60 to $3.8.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

My intrinsic value is $3.23, which is based on slightly conservative multipliers used with known 2012 EPS in my spreadsheet modelling. If I have more normal multipliers, it comes up to $3.54.

Based on the coming years estimate for EPS (taken from the ForBarr research which is 8.8cps) I get intrinsic value of $4.00, or $4.39 on normal multipliers.

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So uptrend has some serious life left in it then. :t_up:

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

More "That's going straight to the pool room".

bw
PT

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Originally Posted by Paper Tiger

Always have a backup

More "That's going straight to the pool room".

bw
PT

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Plan Z backup.... Jousting sticks.

Btw. Does MRP remind anyone of mankind's ability to generate electricity?

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

What, not again????

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Sorry team;we find ourselves "well positioned." lol

Yay we made it to $3! Doing a little dance.

I became a holder in this puppy just before the recent rise, so that was a nice start! I note there hasn't been very much discussion on the DRP, however would anyone care to air their thoughts?

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/234266

Not sure what needs to be discussed about it.

What was on your mind Zaphod?

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Well only that it is deep in the money,by about 41c,which is pretty rich as normally only about 2% or so isn't it?

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Originally Posted by kizame

Well only that it is deep in the money,by about 41c,which is pretty rich as normally only about 2% or so isn't it?

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Ahhh Forget that last post,the heavy rain came swamping in my ears,went ex divi 6 march and ex brains 20th march ha.

On board with this company recently. They have some good locations in the North Island and are a good complement to a holding in Ryman in my opinion. Let the growth continue:t_up:

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

https://www.nzx.com/companies/SUM/announcements/234266

Not sure what needs to be discussed about it.

What was on your mind Zaphod?

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The strike price certainly wasn't overly generous IMO, but if we're expecting good capital gains then certainly worthwhile. Just interested in hearing from those who have decided against joining the DRP.....

Wow what a dry up

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Originally Posted by Huskeez

Wow what a dry up

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:ohmy: your right, only $100k worth of shares for sale currently!

Liking the look of this one ;)

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Originally Posted by Huskeez

Wow what a dry up

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Yep - I wonder if there was some sell off over the last few days in anticipation of an interest rate rise by the RB. Now the sellers vanished like an old oak table.

Yep shortland streets my fave too :-)

Well that was short lived :t_down:

Haha firing blanks! Shaken out a few more sellers though

Yep sure is a keeper for me

Nice we PR , sorry cant put link up but check it out holders :-D

Very positive speach.Positive outlook.

And the market likes it too as we wander up to $3.09.

Sum responds to Rym ! Boom

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Originally Posted by percy

Very positive speach.Positive outlook.

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Sure is mate. What a great pair to own, this and Ryman.

I'm really liking the size of these guys land bank in the Auckland area.:)

"With New Zealand's older population set to double over the next twenty years, the market for retirement and aged care facilities is likely to expand substantially. In our view, Summerset is well positioned to participate in this growth."

Pretty simple really!

New high for SUM. $3.14...I mean $3.15. I am a little suspicious of all the wins I am having recently. Partly its because I am doing more research and I am certainly enjoying the Sharetrader community, but I get jittery at all the good sharemarket news lately. Feels a bit euphoric. Maybe I am just on the right threads?

$3.20 - there must have been quite an impressive spread of light refreshments at the AGM yesterday to stimulate this price action. Did anyone attend?

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Originally Posted by moosie_900

I spiked the punch. Those now banned synthetic cannabinoids sure came in handy ;)

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lol - how 'high' will this share get?

Has anyone been buying recently? I thought about buying some at $3 a few days ago... but $3.23 now, this is ridiculous!
Along with the AGM, I think the share price is responding to the recent RYM surge. One goes up, the other one follows.

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Originally Posted by JayRiggs

Has anyone been buying recently? I thought about buying some at $3 a few days ago... but $3.23 now, this is ridiculous!
Along with the AGM, I think the share price is responding to the recent RYM surge. One goes up, the other one follows.

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Dont forget MET (I dont hold) but its getting some traction!

There certainly seems to be a focus on this industry in the media at the moment, along with all the hype about our aging population and pension concerns. Add that to the commentary about the next decade being the golden age for these companies. Seems like a good recipe for the SP to grow on...

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Originally Posted by turmeric

Agreed, to a certain extent IMO they all (RYM SUM & MET) seem to track each other quite closely, which makes sense seeing as they are all in the same business. However, since I entred into this sector (only 4 months ago) I have been quite suprised at how closely they track each other, especially in the short term based on various updates; Broker re-ratings being the big one recently (3 seperate occasions now in the last couple of months).

I guess this is all reflective of the demographic trends these companies benifit from and as per recent discussions on the RYM thread, probably reflective of gains oin the housing sector too.

Note MET is actually the biggest recent gainer up about 12.5% in the last week or so.

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There was also some positive news that came through via the GOVT that they will be setting aside more money in the upcoming budget for aged and dementia care.

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Originally Posted by turmeric

I hadn't caught up with that, have you got any links to more detailed info on that? Cheers.

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http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/poli...ng-to-increase

There you are good sir.

I doubled my SUM holding at $2.97 as I got sick of looking for an entry point to RYM.

I suspect with RYM at $6 I would be looking at shifting some of my holding to SUM or MET, but don't take that as advice as I'm notoriously bad at putting 'stop-profits' in place.

I added to my position in this stock yesterday at $3.07 after reading the very positive comments made by the Exec's at the AGM. In my view its almost certain the stock price will double in my initial time horizon of five years, probably quite a bit earlier than that.

Somebody has put in a sell order at $200. Are one of you guys taking the piss?

"American scientists have homed in on the part of the brain that controls ageing, managing to keep mice alive and active for up to 100 days past their normal lifespan."


http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86233...fespan-control

Good news for this sector.

Capital outlay on properties for aging mice will be pretty minimal as well ;).

I had a dream we hit $3.50 by next week.... but I also dreamt I was going out with Kim Kardashian .... I dont know what this means im so confused I can feel my legs...

Good for the punters ..bad for the sector. Move em in slow...carry them out quickly is the fundamental premise of retirement investments. PS no seniors were harmed in the writing of this post. I'm one myself...damn it.

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Originally Posted by Banksie

"American scientists have homed in on the part of the brain that controls ageing, managing to keep mice alive and active for up to 100 days past their normal lifespan."


http://www.stuff.co.nz/science/86233...fespan-control

Good news for this sector.

Capital outlay on properties for aging mice will be pretty minimal as well ;).

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

...Where do you guys see full value?

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$2.835.

Is that 30% per annum you are predicting there?

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Quite a hard stock to put a fair value on.

They have a good management team in place to leverage the geriatric tsunami, but equally other players could enter the industry - or some of the small players ramp up.

Would your intrinsic value change from year to year with growth rates achieved Sparky?

I've been thinking that some sort of index that reflects this sector could be interesting to compare with the population over 65. Maybe RYM, MET and SUM weighted by market cap and normalised to the start of 2013. That seems a bit crude to me, anybody got any other thoughts? The idea would be to be able to use the forecasted population increase to estimate the growth of this sector.

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Yes, over the next five years, 30% per annum on average in earnings growth.

So some years, a big spike in the order of 50%, in other years, more like 15%

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An interesting idea.
Most (all) of the earnings for SUM are from increases in investment property value.
Existing properties you can only revalue by a few percent per year along with the fee increases.
The real room for gain is on the difference between the booked build cost of a new unit and the value as a fee stream.

As far as I can see SUM need to both up the build rate (as announced) and get the cost of build down (currently they are claiming 12% gain on new units).
Should they ever get to make real cash profits on care or anything that would be an added bonus of course.

I can foresee wild swings in profit growth, but I would be dubious of a 30% pa average.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

2012 Annual Report, Page 9: [electronic version, starting at the 507th kilobyte]

"An increased development margin of 12% from 6.2% in 2011 was a significant driver of underlying profit".

But we (U & I) hope for better going forward, don't we?

and the
"Summerset is confident of achieving its medium term target of 300 retirement units per annum from 2015, an 18% annual growth on its current portfolio"
will be less than 18% of the 2015 portfolio.

I would wind your expectations down a notch, then they can over-deliver for you.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

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Mrs Barlow reiterated that the company is not seeking to raise any new
capital through the listing

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Excuse my ignorance - if they are not going to raise capital where do the shares for the ASX float come from? Do they buy back from NZX then re-list them as ASX?

It is not a float. It is a listing. It means all current Australian holders can trade the shares on the ASX.

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Originally Posted by Banksie

[/COLOR]

Excuse my ignorance - if they are not going to raise capital where do the shares for the ASX float come from? Do they buy back from NZX then re-list them as ASX?

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Xero did the same thing - look at what happened to its shareprice following the ASX listing.

I am not sure how the shares get from the NZX to the ASX but put simply it requires a current holder to sell for someone on the ASX to buy. Therefore, supply is the same but demand has increased - anyone with ECO101 will know the result.

Makes sense - thanks for the info - and thanks for spiking the punch moosie.

SUM looking to list on the ASX. I thought this would have had a positive impact on the SP. I notice that a lot of sellers come along occasionally and the chart flattens for a while. Then the sellers dry up and the chart moves north again.

Has anyone run the fundamentals on SUM vs MET? I have RYM but feel now is the time to diversify a bit more, that one appearing over-valued at this time. Is this case for SUM and MET which have seen similar % gains in the past month?

Pretty big resistance at 3.20, as soon as it looks like its gone another big parcel appears!

Yeah i was thinking the same thing yesterday , 1.5 million traded so far today + yesterday, and the price has only fluctuate between 3.19 - 3.20 , some big seller out their off loading !

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Originally Posted by Huskeez

Yeah i was thinking the same thing yesterday , 1.5 million traded so far today + yesterday, and the price has only fluctuate between 3.19 - 3.20 , some big seller out their off loading !

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As well as someone taking anything they can get. Not like we seeing a downward progression in price as the market becomes flooded with the sellers parcels. So, no worries from me.

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Originally Posted by Dej

As well as someone taking anything they can get. Not like we seeing a downward progression in price as the market becomes flooded with the sellers parcels. So, no worries from me.

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I take that back lol

Yeap the ASX listing looks a little "try hard" to me. They should spend their energy just getting on with running their business and leave the cost of an Australian listing to a company that will materially benifet from it.
Interesting that the big seller was ready and waiting to pounce on the publicity this news created.

Ths looks set to track sideways for a while until Quadrant's sale is finalised.
Bit of sideways consolidation is this sector wouldn't be a bad thing in my opinion.

yeah, i've been stocking up on SUM this morning, and am closely watching RYM

Yep, I dumped this morning at $3.10. Wouldn't mind some more diclosure around Quadrant before getting back in.

Ouch, this is starting to look ugly!

I saw Ryman down a similar amount, was there some news that I missed?

Sold at 3.15 in past few days, will maybe Rebuy if goes sub $3 again

Glad I haven't missed any news, thought something came out since Ryman is also performing badly today.

turmeric - true, the reason why I think it is ugly is because while SUM don't perform as well as Ryman in the last few months, but the sell-off seems to be just as bad as Ryman when it happens.

Who has bets on bottoms? 295 I say. :p

I did some soul searching on this stock recently after getting a double reading on my bullsh#t meter.
It first went off when they talked up the Aussie listing, (really getting too big for their boots in my opinion and just wasting money), if any company should list in Australia its Ryman for obvious reasons.

My other concern is the apparent manuipulation of the stock. I say apparent because it would appear as soon as the stock got to $3.20 or slightly above there was what appeared to be a carefully organised and consistent selling campaign by one or more major holders. They never put too much scrip up at once on the depth side but it was always there in reasonable volume and as soon as it was taekn out there was plenty more supply. This was especially apparent on the day the planned Aussie listing was announced.

We also have the situation where the private equity holder is well known to want to sell their stake.
I love this sector, and on the face of it this is a very attractive growth stock with an extremly good land bank in the fastest growth area of N.Z. (namely Auckland), but this is not the proven performer in the retirement sector and given the stock overhang I've decided to watch from the sidelines on this one for a while. I continue to hold Ryman's shares notwithstanding the huge increase in price over the last few months.

Yes, I'd echo those sentiments Roger and Moosie. I suspect it hasn't just been at $3.20 though - you can see the chart regularly plateauing over the last month or two. I noticed the sell bundles were coming through in 10,000 share lots. When they dried up, the minnows then pushed the price north.

It's interesting as there have been some reasonable buyers as well. No SSH's triggered so I guess we'll never know what has been going on.

Maybe we're all just paranoid and should get back to looking at the fundamentals of the stock

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The major holder is a substantial security holder, so would need to declare if they are selling down. They still have more than 5%, and they wouldn't be selling piecemeal, since they'd be needing to declare every little movement. That's the last thing they would want.

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Agreed Sparky, nonetheless I guess the way the selling was carefully orchestrated is what triggered me to sell most of my holding at $3.20 too, and cleared the rest out just over $3.00. More than happy to have another look when the private equity guys are done and dusted and it'll be sure to be placed at a discount.

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Maybe we're all just paranoid and should get back to looking at the fundamentals of the stock

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Being highly paranoid is a pre-requsite to sucessful investing isn't it :D

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

The major holder is a substantial security holder, so would need to declare if they are selling down. They still have more than 5%, and they wouldn't be selling piecemeal, since they'd be needing to declare every little movement. That's the last thing they would want....

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As far as I am aware SSH announcements are made when:
First: when you get to or exceed a holding of 5%;
Subsequent: when your holding is 1% or more different from previous announcement;
Last:when you go under 5%.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

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Originally Posted by moosie_900

in that case, if you sell/buy in packets below 1% then you don't have to give notice of ssh change? even if you say sell down from being a 70% holder to a 10% holder as long as you do it in small increments? or, if the selling: s protracted in small packets, do you have to give notice when the selling ends?

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Assume a holder of 70% who has issued an announcement to that effect.
They start selling 0.1% every day.
On the tenth day they have 69% and must issue a notice (within a couple of days?) to say they now have 69%.
Next they sell 5% in one go, so a notice gees out saying we have 64%.
Back to the 0.1% a day and the next notice will be ten days later when they get to 63%.

Same applies when buying, or buying and selling. When your holding has changed by 1% since last time you let everyone know.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

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Originally Posted by Dej

Who has bets on bottoms? 295 I say. :p

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Conficius says..."Man who picks bottoms ends up with sh1tty fingers"

Sorry Dej.....couldn't resist...:)...had one too many Upper Cut cans (energy drink)

Dear glasszon...its a bit late ...but please never ever ever ever expect a SP to continue to appreciate for ever...after 30 plus years...I have learnt some lessons...i.e. lost dosh believing that a companies SP can rise for ever....please take head of postings of very wise folk who post charts et al...HOOP and his ilk (since Phaedrus has gone AWOL)...are a treasure.Cheers

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Originally Posted by Hoop

Conficius says..."Man who picks bottoms ends up with sh1tty fingers"

Sorry Dej.....couldn't resist...:)...had one too many Upper Cut cans (energy drink)

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I will let that one slide :p

If she stays around 295 then I will assume that jealousy in my prediction techniques made you say it :eek2:

Note: does not have anything to do with a crystal ball, just statistics..

Any wild prediction as to what the announcement is?

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Originally Posted by moosie_900

They have made so much money this year and will continue to do so for the next 20 that every unit buyer gets a free genetically engineered Unicorn that cries diamonds and poops gold?

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Haha, maybe that's a bit over the top. Given I do have shares in SUM I guess I better not predict anything though.

Hopefully they take the weekend for a good book-build and sell the lot. I think the company will be better off with new shareholders who have a long term vision for the future of the retirement industry in New Zealand.

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

Last placement in mid March was at around 7.5% discount to the market. So if they apply the same discount, it should be priced around $2.79 or $2.80.

I think it still works on that price. They will kick themselves they didn't place to the market at $3.20 the other week!

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I'm hearing they want 2.90 .........

EDIT: I was obviously far to slow to post and was clearly wrong. Please ignore:

[Quadrant maybe though I would expect they would wait for the ASX listing first so maybe an announcement/timetable for ASX listing.

An acquisition by them of a small player is another option though no need for market halt unless they need to raise cash for the purchase.]

Is it the market price that may dip after the halt or do current shareholders have access to a potentially discounted rate? Would the general consensus be that SUM are a good long term investment which should only continue its trend?

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Originally Posted by chad321

Is it the market price that may dip after the halt or do current shareholders have access to a potentially discounted rate? Would the general consensus be that SUM are a good long term investment which should only continue its trend?

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They will be offered at a discount ($2.90 suggested above) so some buyers in the placement may sell for a quick profit.

It will be a placement to institutions and through customers of the brokerage firm. Existing shareholders will not get the opportunity.

It is a good company but whether it is already fairly prices in the $2.90 - $3 range is the question. I was looking at it when it was $2.60 but sat on it too long and they shot up to $3.20. THis pull back has me interested.

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Originally Posted by winner69

Quadrant shares were in escrow until full year announcment

Then on Mar 6 they indicated to the NZ Herald that they were not about to sell, contary to market speculation

So what other reason do you need .... sale imminent ..... probably as sparks says

Quadrant not a natural owner of Summerset anyway .... but haven't they done well

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See ... the NO was really a YES

'Keeping options' open always meany selling on the way

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Originally Posted by stoploss

I'm hearing they want 2.90 .........

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More than a little opportunistic in my opinion, one day after the strong result from Ryman propelled this stock a bit higher. Insto's should tell em to get more realistic.

Does anyone know which brokers are placing shares in the Quadrant selldown?

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

I didn't know it was Summerset's business to talk about Quadrant's share sale! .

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Maybe he has been reading Rod Drury's playbook and decided he can comment on whatever the hell he likes, especially if he can put a positive spin on it ;)

Maybe his performance bonus is due soon so he is trying to hit one of his targets.

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Originally Posted by SparkyTheClown

First NZ, and apparently it's all over. Didn't get any, didn't get asked. Did anyone out there get any and if so, at what price?

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Well, the turnover is $100m with VWAP at $2.902, means it must have been $2.90 per share.

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Originally Posted by Goldstein

Well, the turnover is $100m with VWAP at $2.902, means it must have been $2.90 per share.

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You can still see some of the trades in the depth, 500 000 parcels at $2.90. We have a new target set on price, but maybe, just maybe, it will only come down to 295 ;)

Still plenty of private equity stock effectivly over-hanging the market and major sellers at $3.20, with limited near term prospects of significant price appreciation I see no reason to hurry back into owning this stock.
Best of Breed runs their operation far more professionally in more ways than one !

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Originally Posted by Roger

Still plenty of private equity stock effectivly over-hanging the market and major sellers at $3.20, with limited near term prospects of significant price appreciation I see no reason to hurry back into owning this stock.
Best of Breed runs their operation far more professionally in more ways than one !

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Not quite sure I agree Roger (but that's what makes a market). A successful sell by QPE at $2.90 and the possibility of listing on the ASX are both favourable. I bought some at $2.98 today (about 20% of my previous holding).

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Originally Posted by Goldstein

Not quite sure I agree Roger (but that's what makes a market). A successful sell by QPE at $2.90 and the possibility of listing on the ASX are both favourable. I bought some at $2.98 today (about 20% of my previous holding).

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Little doubt Quadrant would have sold more if there was more demand at $2.90 so there's your boat anchor attached to the share price right there, in my opinion. That and this stock is on twice the historic PE as Ryman and Ryman are talking up rapid expansion in Australia whereas these guys are just "talking" and doing more of that than I feel entirely comfortable with to be honest. As you say, different views, that's what makes a market.
Happy to chew popcorn on the sideline for a while :)

Roger,

Just interested in where you got the fact from which says that SUM is twice the historical PE of RYM?

I think that I disagree $2.90 sets the ceiling...as I understand it, a discount is necessary for a large sale. We've seen with SUM (the first time), SKT, and TME (I think) as examples where a large seller settles for a discount only for the market price to rebound beyond the share price just before the trade halt.

I would also interpret Quadrant keeping a large chunk differently. Rather than a failure to flick the lot, I suspect they want to take some profit off the table but hang on for the ride in case the ride continues.

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Originally Posted by Zeitgeist

Roger,

Just interested in where you got the fact from which says that SUM is twice the historical PE of RYM?

I think that I disagree $2.90 sets the ceiling...as I understand it, a discount is necessary for a large sale. We've seen with SUM (the first time), SKT, and TME (I think) as examples where a large seller settles for a discount only for the market price to rebound beyond the share price just before the trade halt.

I would also interpret Quadrant keeping a large chunk differently. Rather than a failure to flick the lot, I suspect they want to take some profit off the table but hang on for the ride in case the ride continues.

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The share prices in the cases you mentioned above rebounded in a bull market, before a large amount was sucked out of the market by MRP. The fact that Quadrant still has shares and has shown they are a willing seller will keep a cap on the s/p in this stock my opinion. ( they have previously already taken profit )

market.ft.com
Some Analysts value SUM high end as $3.80 and RYM high end as $6.

Price / Historical EPS, not that historical EPS has much to do with it in SUM's case as they're growing quickly.

To be clear, I didn't suggest $2.90 is a ceiling, but I feel their stake and their stated intention to quit may have a dampening effect on the share price in the future until its cleared out.

FWIW, Macquaries have a price target of $3.90, assuming a build rate of 225 units pa, 75% of the company's target.

Indeed!

I did a double take on the $3.90 and had to check my eyes/screen/sobriety.