Harmoney

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Originally Posted by leesal

Thanks Soolaimon. Could have been a bad first up batch, low sample size.

Harmoney 1.0 suggests you should have only had 6 defaults, in all likelihood you'll end up with 12 or 13. Hopefully the rest of the loan book isn't running similar.

Grade	3 yr default	loans		defaults
A	0.5%	16		0.1
B	1.6%	17		0.3
C	3.6%	17		0.6
D	5.9%	17		1.0
E	12.3%	16		2.0
F	29.4%	5		1.5
Tot		88		5.4

What is your profit on these loans if any? (eg taking your interest received and deducting all premium outstanding, whether defaulted or in arrears)

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Back again. Figures for those 88 loans as follows. Total $ invested $7285 ,gross interest $1136.77 less 101.70 fees, less $ 255.78 lost capital through defaults. This is over my first 4 months, all 36 mnth loans, after the 3 years.
Not sure how you calculate actual earnings as all returns were reinvested.
Does not stack up with Harmoney's 12-15% returns, that's for sure

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Originally Posted by CageyB

Thanks. Since 1.5 I've been consciously putting less into A and trying to invest more heavily into the C and D grades.

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Me too but way behind your returns!

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Originally Posted by CageyB

In case anyone cares, here are my results, investing since March 2016.

Total RAR (from Harmoney): 15.80%
Total loans: 962
All 36-month loans
Loan breakdown by $invested: A 19.4% / B 25.7% / C 21.7% / D 20.5% / E 12.7% / F 0%
# Loans in arrears >30 days: 7
# Loans canceled: 11
# Loans paid off: 354
# Loans charged off: 12
Charged off breakdown by Grade: A 0 / B 1 / C 1 / D 1 / E 9 / F N/A

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15.8% pa. is a fantastic return for any investment!

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Originally Posted by Soolaimon

Back again. Figures for those 88 loans as follows. Total $ invested $7285 ,gross interest $1136.77 less 101.70 fees, less $ 255.78 lost capital through defaults. This is over my first 4 months, all 36 mnth loans, after the 3 years.
Not sure how you calculate actual earnings as all returns were reinvested.
Does not stack up with Harmoney's 12-15% returns, that's for sure

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If I have understood it right, those numbers are after 3 years of investment ...
Simplistically, 1136.77 gross interest for $7285 invested = 15.6% over 3 years (assumes no early repaid!)
Fees 101.7 over 1136.77 interest = 9% over 3 years vs 20% pa in v1.5
Obviously, I'm missing something

Hmmm, a $30,000 loan for home improvements with a residential status of Boarding. Am i the only one that thinks there is no point at all in reading the loan details as they are obviously not at all verified?

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Originally Posted by beacon

If I have understood it right, those numbers are after 3 years of investment ...
Simplistically, 1136.77 gross interest for $7285 invested = 15.6% over 3 years (assumes no early repaid!)
Fees 101.7 over 1136.77 interest = 9% over 3 years vs 20% pa in v1.5
Obviously, I'm missing something

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without stealing Soolaimon's thunder

4 months ago I modelled the expected interest with some assumptions on early repay and default. I used Harmoney's data in the dashboard (eg currently 690k issued, and 278k paid off), you got an annual early repay rate of approx 35-40%. Considering Soolaimon's mix of fewer F's it would be in the higher end of that band

Modelling that gives interest around about as Soolaimon is showing. (3 year loans also on average will pay back 30% of their principal in the first year, ontop of nearly 40% repaid early). So you get somewhere around 60-65% of principal paid off first year.

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Originally Posted by Soolaimon

Back again. Figures for those 88 loans as follows. Total $ invested $7285 ,gross interest $1136.77 less 101.70 fees, less $ 255.78 lost capital through defaults. This is over my first 4 months, all 36 mnth loans, after the 3 years.
Not sure how you calculate actual earnings as all returns were reinvested.
Does not stack up with Harmoney's 12-15% returns, that's for sure

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Back yet again, this time for an apology. My skills with a calculator are not good. This time done manually as I was somewhat suspicious and worried by my original figures. Sorry for any inconvenience.
Total Loans (all 36m) 88
Full term 8
Still current 3
Invested 6475
Charge off princ. 346
Gross interest 1165
Fees 91
Taxable interest 734
Net return 11,35%

I guess the net return figure is not accurate, as all principle and interest was re-invested over the 3 years.
Still happy even though the charge off's were on the high side
Sorry Harmoney, you are not that far out after all.

Vagabond47 another today for home improvements but status Renting. Possible I guess but seems unlikely.
Another for debt consolidation plus some "play money" he ain't playing with any of mine :)

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Originally Posted by leesal

without stealing Soolaimon's thunder

4 months ago I modelled the expected interest with some assumptions on early repay and default. I used Harmoney's data in the dashboard (eg currently 690k issued, and 278k paid off), you got an annual early repay rate of approx 35-40%. Considering Soolaimon's mix of fewer F's it would be in the higher end of that band

Modelling that gives interest around about as Soolaimon is showing. (3 year loans also on average will pay back 30% of their principal in the first year, ontop of nearly 40% repaid early). So you get somewhere around 60-65% of principal paid off first year.

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Or a monthly early pay off rate of about 3%...

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Originally Posted by alistar_mid

Or a monthly early pay off rate of about 3%...

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From my 30+ months investment, the average for the last 12 months - early payoff AND principal (exclude interest) repayments - is 6.58%. This is the percentage over the principal outstanding at the beginning of each month. For the last 18 months, I get back between 5.51% to 8.09% of the outstanding principal each month.
As noted above, this figure does not includes interest.
Further Note: My principal outstanding is from my own spreadsheet and not the one on Harmoney's dashboard which includes the effect of Payment Protect.