I just knew you would come up with an escape clause.
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Just picked up some more. Fundamentals are sound and I'm holding these for my own retirement so not too concerned with some downside now and again. Waiting for OCA tomorrow but maybe not a great time to open with this sector taking a bath? I dont mind accumulating RYM, MET and SUM if they keep dropping
On my high "conviction" stocks such as SUM,HBL,EBO,THL, and TNR I would need the 200 day EMA to be soundly broken.
Then I would review my research,before deciding to sell or not.
On stocks I am not sure about, I would consider selling using 100 day EMA,as a sell signal.
I do use the 100 day EMA when considering purchasing a stock.
But wait there's more.I usually back test a stock, to see what EMA has had a history of being right for that stock.
Creative Accounting 101 :D Like many on here I'm holding these for my retirement in more ways than one. I think Julian's developed nicely as a CEO albeit with some help from helpful shareholders from time to time and the caliber of the board and breath of experience is first class as I am sure you agree mate.
Agreed Percy although after the meeting I've already reviewed my forecast as posted earlier today. I think the current sell down is based on the fact that the disclosure made at the annual meeting is perceived as a serious headwind for the company whereas I see it as simply an opportunity for the company to reevaluate its marketing methodology, i.e. fixed price weekly fees for life.
I think the board and management can be trusted to adapt to the changing market conditions in Auckland and continue their growth path.
SUM now trades at a forward PE based on underlying earnings below the average for the NZX50.
I suspect some of the hot money is exiting SUM and some people are priming the pump for Oceania tomorrow.
My thoughts are that this recent dip amongst MET/SUM/RYM is due to recent property sales metrics released. Auckland has seen both a reduced sales price and listing volumes for April, although partly to blame is school hols. and a few long weekends I suspect. Have a read of the NBR article from yesterday for more info.
The listed prop. funds have tumbled down in the last few months which promotes the idea that this lacking momentum in the SP is due to property concerns amongst the market. ARV has retained its high price recently, so the idea of investors switching from the currently listed retirement stocks into OCA seems a bit far-fetched as I believe ARV ranks higher in the books than OCA. The combination of ARV having low property exposure added to the fact they are a close relative to OCA, means that property is the major concern.
SUM are arguably more heavily invested/leveraged in the development side of things, especially in Auckland, which most likely explains Mr Market's enthusiasm for it now. I believe the poor April data is a one-off and the market is taking this as a complete trend reversal, effectively re-pricing this into the sector.
Yes, a lot of it might be 'hot' - in the sense of looking for a quick buck, not in the 'hot/illegal' sense - and therefore may find its way back to SUM when the market settles around OCA. Meanwhile, I'm not in a hurry to add SUM more but there will be a time to do so.Quote:
I suspect some of the hot money is exiting SUM and some people are priming the pump for Oceania tomorrow
One good thing about being in the Red on a stock like Sum is, you can just relax, sit back and let a temporal blip as is currently happening simply pass ,as it gives way to the gale force tailwinds and those thousands of elderly folk looking to buy Sum units as a lifestyle choice.