What is CRP's breakeven phosphate rock price? It has fallen like most commodities and is now trading at 25% of what it was in 2008!
Printable View
That's interesting so its up approx 15% ... in 10 months.
Imagine what the price will be if ISIL move on to Morrocco.. they have Algeria and Western Sahara as neighbours.
hmmph
The phosphate market was looking pretty good in 2008 too Croesus due to unrest in North Africa, wouldn't you say.
The independent phosphate market reports I have don’t indicate another peak like that is likely, but as you wisely say it just takes the islamic state to move into the area, and it becomes an above and beyond bonus for CRP.
Both the two analyst reports I have both indicate that Chatham Rock is very profitable indeed with a long run average market price at $125/t, their valuations are $1.79 and $1.30 respectively.
Attachment 6428
If anyone is actually looking for a balanced view the latest Edison report for Chatham Rock may be found here;
http://www.edisoninvestmentresearch....ock-phosphate5
OK - if you want to play it this way, here are some different permit types:
http://www.mineralswestcoast.co.nz/p...gislation.aspx
They currently have a mining permit, which is however worthless without the as well required environmental marine consent, check:
http://www.epa.govt.nz/EEZ/working_e...lications.aspx
The marine consent is currently pending (i.e. in front of the deciding committee).
I would recommend a read of the 2013 capital raising document or the Edison report BlackPeter.
The anticipated Boskalis operating fee is anticipated to be US$85/t. One must bear in mind that is a fee for both phosphate recovery and for landing the phosphate at port in NZ. The importation costs alone for Moroccan phosphate is around US$70/t, that’s after one pays US$125/t FOB.
It's the long run phosphate price that is important though, not spot price this year or last.
Adjustments also need to be made, downward for P2O5 composition and upward for several other specific physical properties of the Chatham rise phosphate. Particularly the DAP properties which, as I understand, can demand a retail premium of up to $NZ100 more than other phosphates.
Also, the CRP model is more complex than just assessing it against Moroccan prices. CRP intend to sell phosphate in eight countries each with different product mixes, value propositions and gross margins.
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/202577.pdf
trust this assists,
kind regards, Mac
CRP have a mining permit Blackcap to recover phosphate as per the Boskalis proposal, as below.
http://static.squarespace.com/static...AUSIMM2013.pdf
It's required by NZP&M to ensure the miner is adopting the best practicable environmental and efficient processes for recovering the phosphate and for establishing what royalties the Crown should receive. All that is done and dusted.
What CRP require presently is a marine consent to be granted under the EEZ Act.
“The purpose of the EEZ Act is to promote the sustainable management of the natural resources of an area”
The key words are ‘promote’ and ‘sustainable’, it’s effectively the balance between the two that the DMC must decide on, or most probably IMO, to determine balancing environment controls so to apply as balancing conditions.
Here's a new development. I'm not exactly sure of its implications but presumably it will affect the SP
https://www.nzx.com/companies/CRP/announcements/257007