Thanks P, looking good :)
Printable View
Thanks P, looking good :)
Hi Phaedrus.
Regarding the stochastic and momentum on the chart above. Any smoothing? simple, expo or weighted?
All ords over 5000 by Xmas ..... or well before methinks
Momentum - no smoothing.
Stochastic - this uses the standard default %K Slowing value (SMA3)
Whenever I use smoothing, I post the time period, then a comma, then the smoothing value used. This is almost invariably a Simple moving average.
Thanks Phaedrus
Today should go a long way to that 5000, might even be a day to dump gold stocks, which I might add is going no where in OZ $ and back into more conventional stocks.
Market Data
Last Updated at 20:13 GMT
Market indexCurrent valueTrendVariation% variationDow Jones10755.02Up147.171.39%Nasdaq2354.79Up39.181.69%FTSE 1005602.54Up94.091.71%Dax6294.58Up84.821.37%Cac 403788.01Up65.991.77%BBC Global 305365.30Up81.571.54%
Argh what happened today? Was looking good for a while.
Phaedrus,
I remember a while ago you spoke about the dow/s&p leading the asx200/xjo. I had a look but Im not sure which thread it was attached to but how does it rate if the xjo leads the dow into a pullback? Are they less severe or do we end up playing follow the leader once the dow moves down?
Not suggesting anything just looking at a few different angles of view.
You know, something to with a cat and a dose of curiosity... lol
It kinda defies logic, :confused:
Australia Increases Commodity Export Sales Outlook to Record $203 Billion
By Wendy Pugh - Sep 21, 2010 4:06 PM GMT+1200
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/data?p...d=i4NNtY3iC_0E
Australia , the world’s largest shipper of coal, iron ore and wool, raised its forecast for commodity exports this fiscal year to a record amid rising prices and increasing demand. Photographer: Ian Waldie/Bloomberg
Australia, the world’s largest shipper of coal, iron ore and wool, raised its forecast for commodity exports this fiscal year to a record amid increasing demand and climbing prices.
Sales may be A$214.9 billion ($203.4 billion) in the year ending June 30, 2011, the Canberra-based Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics-Bureau of Rural Sciences said today in an e-mailed statement. That compares with its June estimate of A$202.5 billion and a revised A$170.6 billion for the previous year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia may resume raising interest rates as the biggest mining boom in more than a century stokes the economy next year, bank Governor Glenn Stevens signaled yesterday. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, and Rio Tinto Group are among producers boosting output of commodities such as iron ore as demand in China boosts sales.
“The minerals sector has been very strong, and although there is a bit of near-term softness in some parts in the next quarter perhaps, we think it will continue to strengthen through the early part of 2011,” Rob Brooker, National Australia Bank Ltd. head of Australian economics & commodities, said by phone in Melbourne today.
Gold, Nickel
Earnings from energy and mineral exports are forecast at A$179.9 billion, an increase of 30 percent from the previous year, according to the bureau. Increases in shipments and higher prices for iron ore and coal were the main reasons for the rise, with a “strong performance” also expected for gold, alumina and nickel, it said.
“Continued strong growth in emerging economies, especially China and India, is expected to drive commodity demand and underpin prices,” bureau analysts Alan Copeland and Farah Beaini wrote in the report.
Australia’s Labor Government, led by Julia Gillard, has pledged to introduce a 30 percent tax on coal and iron ore mining profits as it seeks to widen the national benefit from the resources boom.
Economic growth is forecast by the Reserve Bank to strengthen in 2011 as the mining investment boom intensifies.
“Prospects in the resources sector were especially positive, and the increase in investment in this sector would have significant flow-on effects to the broader economy,” the reserve bank said in minutes released in Sydney today.
Domestic Incomes
The forecast export performance this year and gains in the terms of trade would flow through to domestic incomes and may “eventually” lead to some inflationary pressure, National Australia Bank’s Brooker said.
‘It will add to pressure for an earlier move on interest rates but that will also depend on what happens in some of the struggling sectors of the domestic economy,” he said.
The value of farm exports is forecast to rise by 10 percent to A$31.4 billion this fiscal year led by increased crop production in eastern Australia following rainfall and favorable prices for commodities including wheat, barley, cotton, beef, sheepmeat and dairy products, according to the bureau.
Agrium Inc., based in Calgary, last month bid A$1.2 billion for AWB Ltd., Australia’s largest wheat exporter, as international companies show increased interest in the nation’s agricultural assets.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Pugh in Melbourne wpugh@bloomberg.net
The SMH puts yesterday's lacklustre market down to "profit-taking" - which is the market/brokers' code for "don't know".
http://www.smh.com.au/business/wall-...921-15lhu.html
[QUOTE=macduffy;320221]The SMH puts yesterday's lacklustre market down to "profit-taking" - which is the market/brokers' code for "don't know".
QUOTE]
Seems to have been largely a combination of:
-profit-taking
-uncertainty about FOMC announcement later in day in US
-stronger perception about RBA interest rate hikes
- drop in Chinese iron ore imports, from July to August
- ABARE forecast of "decline in rate of increase" of Chinese imports over next year or so
Hi Shane, the charts I think you are referring to are all on page 5 of this thread. Here is another comparison of the AllOrds vs SP500, utilising the Market Strength Indicator. This allows a direct detrended comparison of the 2 indices. Here are my conclusions - yours may be different!
(1) The 2 indices are very closely linked.
(2) Sometimes the AllOrds leads, sometimes the SP500 leads.
(3) There is no way of predicting which will lead, ahead of time.
(4) Because of the tight correlation, it generally pays to act on the leading index, regardless of which it is.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...AllOrds922.gif
Hi Phaedrus,
I like the look of that chart, it is very clear that they are joined at the hip. What one does the other isnt far behind.
Also, in regards to the other who are wondering what has been happening the last few days, its that time of month again. Options expire tomorrow and I think the futures are on again as well. The other thing that I see is that there is a narrowing of price volatility as the big boys get out of positions. Joe Dia Napoli said that it is common to see this gyration of price as the big movers and shakers take profits and pass shares to weaker players.
Now Im not saying its going to hell in a handbasket but the big players do have to declare profits and that means exiting positions. A minor gryation I suspect.
Anyway just my 2c.
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=kgb
last couple of paragraphs perhaps an explanation
What a great month we have had eh?
I could make a living playing this game if I could have 3 months like this one per year lol.
Three cheers for September 2010
I wouldn't count on that, KW!
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...B/AllOrds1.gif
Ah, but whose history? Has this bold statement ever been tested against Australian data?
Not all books are worth reading, KW! In any case, something that might work in Northern hemisphere markets could be totally inapplicable down here.
I have to knock your theory KW. Take a look at the facts. Over the last 20 years, the "best 6 months" holding strategy has NOT been Nov - April. In the Australian market, March - August has been the best 6 month holding period - but even that clearly underperforms simply buying and holding! The strategy simply doesn't work. The chart below shows the points gained from all 6 month holding periods over the last 20 years. The usual Halloween "Sell in May and go away" (buying back in November) conventional wisdom is plotted in blue.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...OrdsMayNov.gif
Never let it be said that I am incapable of constructive criticism, KW. Having debunked Hirsh's writings as being wildly inaccurate and totally inapplicable here, I feel obliged to offer you some alternative means of scheduling your holidays. If you are looking for a cyclic buying system based on being out of the market for the worst performing months, maximum returns are generated by being in the market from March to December and out for January and February, as plotted at the top of the chart (dotted grey line). Unfortunately for your holiday plans, far from conveniently coinciding with the Melbourne winter, the best "out of market" period inconveniently coincides with the height of Melbourne Summer!
Hey Phaedrus, any chance of an updated MSI? The indicators on my XAO chart (ok, your indicators :D ) are starting to look a wee bit suspect
Here you are Trackers :-
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...llOrds1124.gif
Still positive, but obviously falling. I'm not overly worried...... yet.
Thanks P :) Just looking at that, my return from Jul-present this year was about the same as my return for all of 2009 - Not sure if that means I'm improving, or whether I just dropped the ball big time in 2009!!
Here are a couple of XAO variations with daily and weekly stuck side by side.
Hope you got wide screen monitors :P
XAO candle view
http://i52.tinypic.com/2hgac6b.png
XAO line view
http://i52.tinypic.com/2qta15l.png
XAO candle/line mix
http://i56.tinypic.com/2ld98rd.png
Some with support/resistance marks on the chart, some with oblique hot zones.
Of course the line is only a simplistic up down movement of green and red unlike Mr. P's delicate colour mix or algo-mix.
Although strong things looking a bit toppy and markets starting to sound like they need to justify a breather as seen from the lead from US starting off with Ciscos report.
Hopefully a few healthy steps back to rampage past 5000+ onwards, but as always, time will tell hey :)
edit:
ps: think the weekly needs to sort out its standing amongst the EMA clutter just below on the weekly charts, meaning one more cross to go and we could be well on our way upwards.
Thanks Drilly, really interesting :) You must be pretty switched on to use such small periods for RSI etc... Do you find Williams %R more successful than Stoch?
Initially, I found stoch makes more money over a long period of time but Williams %R has a better profit:loss ratio, but that was just a backtest against a small watchlist
Hey Trackers,
Mate, at times I find myself using combinations of parameters. As you probably know, some indexes or stocks seem behave closer to adjusted parameters so these charts in of the XAO are only a general standard setting.
What interests me is the weekly XAO and the 90ema about to cross the 200ema to potentially open up the gate of ema's so to speak, which is a great outlook.
Having said that, seems a breather would also prove to be healthy for the XAO, meaning if a pullback to test the 30ema or even the lower bollingerband and bounce from there to enable us to have a stronger "next leg up" type of thing.
Who knows, the market does what the market does. :P
Well here is another mix of Daily and Weekly chart of the XAO
http://i53.tinypic.com/2uztr4p.png
As you can see we are touching resistance and by the looks of things we are going to successfully punch through the 5018 resistance line.
While posting this we seem to have a positive lead from the US but a little flat in EU and London.
Guess its going to be do or die time soon. Guess we will have our answer by next week anyway or maybe sooner.
Well time to crash out now folks,
Cya tomorrow :)
Superficially, that's certainly how it appears to be, KW, but look a little deeper and you will see that in fact the reverse is true. The chart below compares the percentage returns of the SP500 and the AllOrds since the low of 2009. Meaningful comparisons can be made only if they are expressed in the same currency.
I appear to be making a fortune on US markets, but when my US$ gains are converted into real money like Aus$, the ugly truth is revealed. Just like Gold, my USA profits are measured in a weak and falling currency. Correct for that and a very different picture emerges.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...B/Index217.gif
You can run, but you cant hide, so thought it is time we start bringing this thread back in to action again as the amount of red appearing on watch lists or stocks on the ASX are becoming very apparent.
Question many would be thinking right now would be: Egypt, Middle East, and where ever change feels needed.
But the XAO looks like it could do with a breather and I feel its quite healthy for the markets, as well as many stocks.
This could be a great time to cleanse, or rebirth a new portfolio or sector perhaps?
So then, what do you reckon folks?
After close, I will post another chart as like the other with an update with EOD data.
Would be also interested to see how the Phaedrus coloured market health indicator is looking on his charts too.
Well folks,
As mentioned, here is another one of my dual charts (daily and weekly) showing what I feel will be anticipated moves in the XAO. (ASX All Ords)
Here is the chart: http://i56.tinypic.com/10hn0b5.png
Expected pull back levels written on the chart, and are approximations only due to the current global sentiment.
ps:
I feel if no bounce eventuates and support becomes broken and then 80% cash out is my only option (for me).
Nice chart Phaedrus.
I imagine Gold in AUD$ looks similar. Guess you could short the US$ whilst buying the SP500.
Hi folks,
Important day and of course end to a turbulent week.
Here is yesterdays close of the ASX or XAO which shows us sitting right on support.
XAO daily and weekly chart with S+R >>>> http://img153.imageshack.us/img153/5...4feb2011dw.png
I think today may tell a bit of a story, but I am hoping for a bounce or hopefully a flat session so Monday can tell the rest of the story but we may have our answer by the end of day.
Both daily and weekly are on support levels, and I am sorry about the size of the chart image, I hope you all have 24" screens :P
Was going to post other charts of the Dow, S+P500, COMP, DAX and FTSE to show the similar pattern yet some showing partial alternative views of potential.
Maybe will post them here after the day kiicks off.
Just keep in mind where we are or potentially might be by the end of the day.
Hi Drilly.
Friday turned out alright eh? with a nice piercing line patten on the short term candle chart.
Last night overseas was alright too Im pleased to see.
I reckon the business world will soon get used to and accepting of the turmoil in Africa and then back to business as usual.
Im a pretty simple fella but this is how it looks to me.
Is the asx delayed or somethign going on with reporting of trades?? NW seems frozen as do other stocks?
Thanks
Gazprom
The ASX has gone into an 'enquire' phase - so far I can't find any indication as to why. All brokers are affected.
Yeah, just called DB. Whole thing is not operational at the moment. Did not have any details about when it may start back up again.
Thanks Fihr.
Gazprom
Thanks fellas. Thought I was goin nuts.
Ive been slagging off Slingshot and DB for the last half an hour lol
To myself of course
Yeah folks, there is something up thats for sure.
I was wondering what was going on there and its still happening, I move orders and they dont update (change) plus I cant see if got them or not, so dont know whats up here.
Fihr, Where do you get your info from to advise that all brokers are affected?
Fihr, cancel that request mate, cheers:
http://www.asx.com.au/sfe/sfe_system_status.htm
ASX Trade Production
Status : Paused
ASX Trade is currently experiencing technical difficulties regarding trade dissemination on Partition 3 Securities
Update 2:
ASX is continuing to investigate the technical issue with trade dissemination on Partition 3 and is working towards re-opening the market today. It is unlikely that this will occur prior to normal market close of 16:00.
Further updates will be provided at 10 min intervals.
Also:
Austraclear System Test
Status : Paused
SFE Austraclear Test System is currently unavailable due to scheduled maintenance. If you have any further queries, please contact the SFE Austraclear Service Desk on 1300 362 257.
"ASX is continuing to investigate the technical issue with trade dissemination on Partition 3 and is working towards re-opening the market today. It is unlikely that this will occur prior to normal market close of 16:00"
Is this where the BIG GUYS pulls the bag over everybody's head and now we find that our trading accounts are 40% down and all orders are off the table except they Mr. Big is 1st in the cue for Buy or sells in a particular sequence? :P
Hey Drilly,
Are you good fella?? Been ****e over here in Canterbury - christchurch is a disaster zone. It is a very somber time here but we have been fortunate only to lose property not lives.
Hope you're doing well. I have just taken a chunk of ARV at 4.9. It is unloved at the moment.
Gaz
Whats gonna happen here Skeet, does this mean all existing orders will Purge and its getting left a little late at the end of the day to plan some type of strategy dont ya think?
As in, its like the Magic Curtain will lift up and then Here are the Prices, for good or bad or whatever they may seem.
Hi Gaz,
Mate, I am pleased that you and family are ok there and yes, a very sombre time indeed.
Losing anything is not good, but 1st and foremost, it is great to hear your alright along with any other ST posters whom also have endured.
Trading is a little bit scattered atm, have a few things on the go, but do not like these data outages as one can get left feeling lost at times.
Will have to catch up via email one of these days Gaz, but good to see your ok and trading away and doing well in that department.
Cheers.
Will PM you in the coming days. Pain in the backside when we have outages like this on the ASX. I have no live trades ATM so not worried but would like it up and running asap. Had a great January but looks likely will be slightly down for Feb but no dramas. Missed NWE by a whisker on Friday and I am in ARV instead. concerned about BUR cap raising details as am too long BUROA....got to be in to win though.
Take care,
Gaz
ASX CLOSED 3PM 28TH FEBRUARY 2011
Looks like somebody needs their sysadmin aSS kicked.
Hey Strat, I hope your right about that, back to normal sure would suit me, as it would many I guess.
Here is last Fridays Chart which I will post another one in an hour or so once my PRT EOD data comes in.
http://i55.tinypic.com/53nr5j.jpg
I am getting the feeling that it wants to test the lower Bolling Band and oblique support line at 4845 which is also where the 90 day EMA is also positioned.
Perhaps a full bounce from there until news, global stability settles in perhaps just a little bit more, just maybe, if possible?
An interesting perspective here on the state of the Aussie market.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?ty...E389C16CB3F49F
Interactive Brokers Bulletin Board
To ASX traders:
Mon Feb 28 18:19:08 2011 EST
As part of the resolution to the ASX trade dissemination issue experienced on 28 February 2011 the ASX has disabled all Tailor Made Combinations until further notice.
Further details about this trade issue can be accessed through the asxonline.com web-site.
1 Go to - http://www.asxonline.com/Participants/Welcome
2 Click the Library icon at the top of the page.
3 Click on 'Communications' and then on 'ASX Trade Communications'.
4 Click on 'ASX Trade Circulars' to access these Circulars
ps:
Macduff,
So in brief, the article in that link basically says that the regardless of what values are seen in stocks or how much a stock rises or falls is in effect trival while the market is driven to suit its current need or fullfillment until such a time whereby the reality will unfold that there is no value or concern for such value due to such current propped up economy (false economy) which is destined to fall anyway.
Is that the long of the short of it? :P
Well, I wouldn't put it quite like that!Quote:
ps:
Macduff,
So in brief, the article in that link basically says that the regardless of what values are seen in stocks or how much a stock rises or falls is in effect trival while the market is driven to suit its current need or fullfillment until such a time whereby the reality will unfold that there is no value or concern for such value due to such current propped up economy (false economy) which is destined to fall anyway.
Is that the long of the short of it? :P
It's just another view, thought-provoking IMO and we can each take what we wish from it, or nothing!
Personally, I think it's worth taking note of his views on the relationship between shareprices and consensus price targets, particularly in regard to the Aussie banks where he has an - admittedly fairly short - track record.
Quote:
Personally, I think it's worth taking note of his views on the relationship between shareprices and consensus price targets, particularly in regard to the Aussie banks where he has an - admittedly fairly short - track record.
Yes indeed and I agree MacDuffy, and may I say 'well said' too.
Hi Drillfix.
Just wanted to take a moment to thank you for very useful posts.
The info regarding the state of the ASX the other day. That handy little copper n gold thingie now at the bottom RH corner of mt screen etc etc.
Much appreciated bud.
Hi Strat,
For a moment there I was wondering which chart you were on about with copper and gold...lol
Worked it out, and you mean the FireFox pluggin I mentioned last week or so after a post by Shasta I think.
Here are the preferences for others to view what your talking about: http://i52.tinypic.com/bgpxja.png
As we can see, you can also add Copper, Nickel, Silver, Platinum, and much more, Choose your currency, get alerts, and chrts too.
I only have it set to gold as proxy, but may add copper and silver as well, but that starts to take up realestate on my bottom browser bar :P
Quite a handy tool along with another little program pluggin for Firefox called FOX CLOCKS which allows you to set multiple time zones and keep the tiny, or bigger with many time formats. This was handy when trading futures and other forex currencies, but truth be known, if you dance all these hours, it takes its toll on you and can completely wear you out, but all these addons I classify as Essentials.
Back to ASX.
Well, mate I dont know what to think, the Oz market is getting leads but for whatever reason, just simply does not wish to follow the carrot so to speak. I am finding myself getting jumpy and also changing my mind and I am now thinking about just sitting on the side lines until there is complete direction as to me, "this could go any way", IMO.
Take a look at the daily and the weekly in the following chart (like the others but updated from todays action, or lack of it).
XAO Daily and Weekly charts >>> http://i54.tinypic.com/2iu61i.png
What are your thoughts on the above chart?
Seems to me there is complete lack of conviction here, and if it doesn't get a move on soon, it will mean, its setting up for a fall.
Notice the daily where by appox the 5022 resistance line got tested 7 days out of 9 consecutive days and failed each time.
Also today on the daily we tested and bounced down off the 13 EMA and then fell below the 30 EMA, and it looks like we are about to test the bottom of the Bollinger Bans which may also break through diagonal support to then test the 90 EMA ( I hope not)
And if that happens, we then have the 13 ema crossing the 30 ema.
Adding to this, the OBV is weakening along with flattening RSI below 50.
So the daily current view to me is becoming more negative IMO.
No doubt I will have missed something, but a from a brief overview, I have enough there to cause some concern.
Lets hope there is more world carnage, rebellion or whatever else there seems to be flowing as this appears to be helping the pressure towards the downside.
As always, just thoughts and concerns on a day day, week to week basis.
Another chart for yesterdays action which could show some potential bounce area's if we have not touched them already.
XAO Daily and Weekly >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/m...and-weekly.png
(also using another free image upload service which seems fast and allows multiple uploads at the sametime)
Weekly Chart (on the right)
90 day EMA about to crossover the 200 day EMA which resides at the bottom of the bolly bands atm.
13 day EMA touched by the price line which is currently show red. Could this be a bounce from here?
Current diagonal support heat zone tested and appears broken or still partially in range.
RSI, OBV easing off and MACD histogram at near centre line and signal appears to touch to cross maybe downward.
Williams %R heading downward, although this could easily reverse depending on market direction.
Daily Chart (on the left)
Yesterdays candle has touched the bottom of the Bollinger Band and near tested a intermediate support line.
We may get a slight fall and test of the intermediate line again though at worst even a test of the diagonal support heat line (4867'ish).
Question is will we get a bounce here maybe?
Like the weekly, OBV, RSI are declining, MACD histogram is negative and flat, a shorter fall or up day will see some nice divergence hopefully.
W%R shows the market back through the oversold line at -86.054, no doubt this can easily change with market sentiment and direction.
Perhaps next week the XAO will get its legs back and show some thrust as the political world slowly chills out.
At the time of posting this the Dow is up 47+, NASDAQ 22+ and S&P500 6.4+ points all in the green.
So, will our market take the a lead or are we still waiting for other matters to come out through the washing machine? Or can some sentiment start to light up the market before the weekend? Who knows hey, one day and week at a time.
Anyway folks, its late again so time to sleep, catch ya in the morning so have a nice breakfast and have a great trading day tomorrow. :)
Following Weds XAO here is an expansion on that being yesterday (Thurs) but with a Zoomed in view of the area zones with more detail.
Thursday XAO daily and weekly Zoomed >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/p...Mar-3-2011.png
As mentioned previously same thing applies, yet I honestly hope we dont get a breakdown of the daily which is broken through or and still touching the support zone otherwise this will reflect the weekly accordingly which could be set for a breakdown, but yet it continues holding up as it has done for the past 6+ months.
Hopefully the weekly will test and bounce off the 13 day EMA as it had one back on Nov 22/2010 so here is hoping for a bounce there upwards and onwards.
Failing that, then yield future caution or attention on a daily basis accordingly.
But also tomorrow the XAO should have a strong lead from US if it chooses to take it as at the time of making this post the following applies to US markets:
* Dow +167.56
12,234.36
+1.39%
* Nasdaq +43.12
2,791.19
+1.57%
* S&P +17.15
1,325.59
+1.31%
Good night folks, cya all tomorrow.
Thanks P :) Amazing how much the ASX has underperformed US indices this year... Excluding exchange rate effects
Cheers Phaedrus,
Although, your chart appears to be recently showing a double bottom, is that because of the Linerar scale?
Whats the grey colour? Or maybe im colur blind
1pm NZ time, Drillfix.
Well what a red, sell off, reddy gob smacked type of day today hey folks!
Here is a chart of the XAO from friday with some annotions drawn in the chart whereby a calculated bounce approximation is added.
XAO Daily and weekly chart: >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/h...5y0k9k4mhf.png
The weekly suggested we are tinkering on the oblique support line/zone/area
While the daily is showing a clear breech of oblique support line and a test for intermediate support below that which also connects with an alternative oblique support line.
It is this connection of support lines which I have made an approximated calll that the XAO should get a bounce from 4878 as shown in the Fuchsia coloured candle and box drawn on the daily chart. At worst, the XAO may test the 90EMA line at the bottom of the rectangle drawn.
This estimation cannot be only technical, it will also be sentiment driven along with what goes on globally and politically stability as well as the global technical's, commodities, oil, and whatever you have to affect one another.
Funny how the MACD signal line on the daily had looked set to turn positive along with Williams turning up as well as RSI and OBV also turning up.
Guess we cant really depend on a daily in times when American just cannot make its mind up whether or not is going to pull through, has or does not have the oil to cope, or confidence in its previous efforts. Seems to always on again, off again type of relationship with itself primarily as well as the rest of the world.
Just another week in rome, will it come good again this week, or are we in for a fall?
To me, if we breach the 90ema line at 4853.4 Line with no bounce to be seen, then I will throw in the towel and sit it out with cash on the sidelines.
Any hoo, have a nice day folks.
If you ask me KW, its the big fat guy boys club that are sitting having tea debating about which way they want to paint the over all market chart.
Sometimes they believe its better if it goes up, some think it will better if it falls. Either way, they just dont care because they have most of the money and if they want more, all they need to do is choose which direction would better suit their interests, and then short it, or buy it accordingly on the dips.
Of course, maybe they dont want the money any more, but rather the hard commodities or precious metals. Enter a new conspiracy theory perhaps, so who knows.
If things start dropping too much and a new leg down begins then I think it would be best to switch to instruments that you can short.
Sorry I dont have the answer for you KW, though would like to hear others put forth suggestions accordingly though.
Here is another chart of Mondays close EOD of the XAO
Daily and weekly combined: >>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8...wfr7fdvd67.png
Drew in a couple of rectangles areas point discusson.
Meaning, the Weekly MACD looks like is about to fall over with negative histogram and signal line cross which is negative.
The Weekly Williams %R heading south which is negative.
The Weekly Red falling indicator line has broken support which has now al turned red making that now resistance which is negative.
The Weekly Red falling indicator line is right on touching the 13day EMA which may bounce, or may not which it should then test the 30EMA
The Weekly RSI is just above 50 still which I see as still positive but heading south to breach 50.
The Daily charts all previous supports have now turned into Red resistance.
The Daily rectangle zone drawn indicates a potential bounce zone, and failing this will test the below 60day EMA
The Daily chart shows MACD, Williams%R potentially can turn around should a positive bounce be encountered.
What to make of this, who knows, just flow with the river and trade accordingly.
So far so good today, meaning there seems to be a kinda flat balance between blue chip miners and banks doing their thing as well as a light sell off on some spec stocks.
Perhaps in preparation for a Bounce ??? Tomorrow say? C'mon people lets hear some calls, put on your XAO calling socks and yell it out where to next :P
Bounce tomorrow (Wed), then a Run on Wed, with a strong finish Friday is my guess.
Any takers other views contrary to this? Always love to hear others thoughts on the matter.
I agree Drilly, at a guess... I'm looking forward to that Williams %R in your graph turning upwards
Nice of you to sound off there Trackers, and Williams seems to react a slightly tad quicker than the MACD and other indicators so should this move upwards the rest will follow.
Just need to continually watch out for any obvious Divergence that may disagree creating suckers out of us.
You got it Trackers, and a bounce as confirmed shown on the chart @ 4,871
XAO daily Zoomed >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/8...00di4yy0sf.png
Looks like a mini double bottom ready for the next leg up to test 4,943 and if successful up to re-test the culprit 5,023 which is just so significant that we break past that and stretch it up to the top of the bollingerbands on the daily chart.
Your Williams%R is now turning up, although the weekly Williams is seen turning down, though that could change if tomorrow is a strong positive day then all indicators will swing back in direction or close to it.
As mentioned, here is your williams %R turning upwards, which may I add, can change/turn quite fast on a daily basis.
XAO daily and weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/6...rge145ppb7.png
Fingers crossed for more positive leads from oversea's markets other relative indicators.
Looks like a rally and a strong closing to the week coming starting tomorrow/today!
Good night folks time for sleep.
It can be trivial but sometimes the extra big picture tells an interesting story...
The 30year weekly chart below show the tremors of stress within the All Ords index market.
1987 crash came suddenly without warning
2008 GFC the market began increasing vibrations before the peak, giving warning signs similar to a pressure cooker ready to blow up. The length of time and the severity of the market vibrations tells us that this GFC was very serious event indeed.
So..what now??... the vibration and after-shocks are lessening and the linear regression channel is going upwards ....very long term good news or is this the P wave before the big quake ????
For the shorter term present situation things have quietened down, though the All Ords has issues with its orange 5000 resistance line... its been a menace for over a year now.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2011weekly.png
Hoop, good post.
I guess there is no real way to know except to always beware the Black Swan, yet as you already know, there are many that look for the warnings and tell tale signs which are.
Key divergence on certain indicators, movement of VIX etc etc
Huge rally or migration into to defensive sectors whilst in a confident market.
I dont think there is an all on one solution for everybody to jump at the same time.
As in, I have given myself complete instructions that if the XAO breach certain levels, then I would react by going to a certain %cash, and act accordingly in the moment.
The market is going to do what the market is going to do, for the ups and downs, and agree about the XAO 5000 level hotspot, its problematic yet I feel it will be tested again as we seem to be making higher highs, and higher lows, although it will due for another test of the XAO 5000 and failing that we have double tops, perhaps that will be a trigger to jump, or get in. Make or break type of thing.
As always, time will tell.
Hi again Hoop,
I forgot to say, even with the open today and the first hour as we are in atm.
Dont you just love at least how "these days" the ASX (XAO) seems to be taking on its own Personality. Previously it was like a trained Dog that barked or fetched the stick because whatever the DOW or S&P500 had done.
But now it seems to be trying to be its own master and puppet master.
No doubt we are down in the red -10 points because somebody chooses to sell of BHP or because that got sold off oversea's.
Funny behaviour for the past while though would you say?
Maybe Aussies pay a bit more attention to reality, maybe they pay attention to the metal prices, maybe they are closely watching developements in China and maybe they remember the last oil spike and what it does to consumerism, I certainly do.;)
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metal...copper-30d.gif
Hi Tricha,
Plenty of maybe's there, and hey any chance on making that chart a little smaller as its just way to big :P
Nah, truth is, I agree with what you say Tricha, Aussie's do look at reality in much much more detail than our US counterparts as both me and you know the Aussie system has measures in place that also helped us move through such previous exploded bubbles.
Like Hoop says and posted with his chart with the earth quake effect, will we have tremors or wont we, and if so, potentially when, and what do we look for to potentially see them coming?
The very thing about any Black Swan though is, in order for it to be a Black Swan, we are not supposed to see it anyway so what is going to prepare us for what could be, or eventually might be?
To me, the markets are always going to rise and rall, rise and fall, and sometimes Rise Heavily and Fall Heavily.
All the world is a stage and the script is always in progress as it is being played out.
To me trade what you see and when in doubt or become proven wrong, then act accordingly.
Its ok, its just a bounce off the Oblique/Intermediate support line at present.
EOD will of course be the best evaluation but what exactly is the short of the long of it. Metals are taking a breather?
Well, plenty of more positive leads from OS futures, BUT, will our quirky ASX market decide to spit the dummy instead?
Dont know whats going on with the Who, when, where, why and what Syndrome so I guess I will just post a couple charts and let you work it out for yourself.
Some serious Breaching going on with both daily and weekly.
XAO daily & weekly >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/c...jatsnvz4iv.png
You can see a Zoomed version of the Daily, and I think with any more sell off type moves breaching the support then the Technicals will be telling the story and I will take a cash position to at least 50% cash.
XAO ZOOMED View >>>> http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/9...t3czi1jd41.png
To me it is apparent the support has been broken, but as with magnetism the price candle is drawn to the 90 day EMA like a magnet, which can also be considered normal behaviour too, to some degree, but caution required as markets unfold.
Now I am getting paranoid maybe, but another couple more falls and no doubt Mr. P's chart of colour will no doubt also tell you to get out should this keep falling as the last post was more of a neutral type colour I beleive.
Well, have a nice night folks or a wonderful morning.
Thanks for your charts and thoughts Drilly... I like to keep it simple so based on what you've posted there I'll start getting extremely nervous if 4800 doesn't hold.
That being said, US treading water overnight, oil down and gold up so should be an OK day
Good day, I would not bet on it, Australia is minerals and metals got smashed last nite.
Live Spot Priceshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgSPOT PRICE IS OPENPrice: US$/lb http://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgCopperMarch 09,13:59Bid/Ask4.2035-4.2086Change-0.1157-2.68%Low/High4.1736-4.3605http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgChartshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgNickelMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask12.0539-12.0721Change-0.3311-2.67%Low/High12.0267-12.5642http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgChartshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgAluminumMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.1458-1.1487Change-0.0113-0.98%Low/High1.1345-1.1676http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgChartshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgZincMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.0279-1.0292Change-0.0408-3.82%Low/High1.0099-1.0914http://www.kitcometals.com/images/arrow.jpgChartshttp://www.kitcometals.com/images/line_horiz.jpgLeadMarch 09,13:58Bid/Ask1.1351-1.1381Change-0.0440-3.73%Low/High1.1316-1.1911
Hmm, yes didn't notice the falls in non-precious metals cheers Tricha. Looks like oil needs to fall further then I suppose ..
No doubt oil is setting up to eventually all to do a Power SHORT on the CL futures with huge gains to be made being on the short side.
With regards to XAO and Australia, perhaps some Red is what XAO needs and considers to be a positive lead.
And yep, I too would be extremely nervous should 4800 breakdown, but as far as today goes a slight bounce perhaps or flat?
Hi Tricha,
Hey please dont take this the wrong way but, You really need to learn how to Format a post.
As your last post is not very readable and to be honest is extremely hard work to read.
I'm sure you understand.
KW, I am getting quite nervous here.
As in as I post this the All Ordinaries are 4,827.70 which is -35.5 in the red.
Somebody knows something about something, Banks are up, Metals are completely smashed as we know because BHP gets sold off, the market dives big time.
(for me) As mentioned in the Zoomed pic, if 4815 becomes breached then I am out because I am not into Ski Slope type down hill surfing, I am more of rock climber. Plus the ASX gives only limited positions for shorting and IB is not allowed (apparently) its clients to short ASX anything which is a complete pitty otherwise we would have increased our ability to make money way more easily in many cases.
Finger on the pulse here people, lets take off our rose coloured glasses as we take a reality check here IMO about what may or could unfold.
Hmm, your picture isn't quite right Phaedrus, maybe u need to follow this picture more closely, as it is apparently a key indicator to where to next :confused:
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metal...copper-30d.gif
LOL, sorry KW, I just went back and edited that so cheers for the reminder.
I am migrating to cash now as we speak, little by little and if 4800 goes, I am out.
Funny though, watching some stocks rally today like nothing is wrong, but once people sober up, they will realise the market is turning, as it has been for the past couple of days, and enough to change Mr. P's colour index I bet (should 4800 not hold).
As I type we are at 4808, my eject button has been hit, and even if I have to buy back at a small premium, I dont care, I will but only until I get evidence that this shakeout or whatever you want to call it, is completely over. No evidence = down the rabbit hole we go.
add/edit:
I forgot to say, I am also charting the S&P200 in Real time so IMO should that also crack through 4700 then its Red Rover.
Phaedrus,
A week ago you were saying get in,..... a week later you say get out. Such is a week in the life of a trader.
Thanks P, appreciate it :) Have sold about 80% of my holdings today, going to be very interesting to see whether that turns out to be the right move.
My main concern has been that the ASX has been so weak, and the US so strong... What happens when the US reverses?
Tricha, this chart is right up to the minute.
It shows the current market strength as accurately and as simply as I can depict it.
It does not purport to predict the future. Never has.
How many times do I have to explain this point to you?
Are you thick?
I'd be tick to take any notice of your rearview mirror Phaedrus.
I wonder where the red line will take us this time.
http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metal...-copper-5y.gif
Marginal calls will be kicking in, along with stop losses, greed or fear ?
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/widget/cha...XJO&type=INDEX
indexvaluechangenumeric changeS&P/ASX200 4703.3http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -64.5ALL ORDS 4796.5http://www.asx.com.au/images/down_glyph.gif -66.7
Thanks for posting the chart, Phaedrus. Especially 'up to the minute'.
I've exited all my CFD positions (which a couple of days ago were looking pretty good but today turned red except for one). All my other positions - not CFD's - will trigger their own exit signals if this keeps up. Which is likely.
Half the time you see the technical action but find out the real reasons for it some time afterwards. But heard on the radio that a lot of money is being repatriated to the US given some positive economic news over there, plus of course we have the Libyan uncertainties. Still I think a lot of people have been waiting nervously for a decent sized correction for some time, whatever the reason. Who can tell at this stage if this will be it?
Thanks for the chart Phaedrus. As I posted last week (or was it the one before) I exited all positions except for one (tsv.ax). This is only 5% of my portfolio so sitting comfortably.
Wise move there Corporate and good timing.
I see this ASX thread is becoming popular back in fashion while the XAO is on the slip, so no doubt we can expect more powow happening here with index babble and perhaps some new age strategy planning perhaps? :P
Well, it appears today the XAO appears like it want to land on a close or finish close to 4800 and S&P200 close to 4700.
For those who are interested I will post some closing Index charts at EOD to early evening.
Surely there'll be a bounce off the 195EMA?