Love the last line of that article "The shares are trading at 41 cents each compared with a high in August 2016 of 59c." If only :)
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Thanks for posting the article Simla.
In terms of shareholders, the largest shareholder remains Leveraged Equities a company associated withForsyth Barr principals, Sir Eion Edgar and Neil Paviour- Smith....... no fools those guys.
Yes, the price has been almost a continuous downhill slope since July last year.
But .. are people sure of the choice? Say the 8m revenue estimate for last year remains the base for the coming year, and add in 25% expected growth. Then they could be (maybe) going to forecast revenue of 10m this year. If they then declared an intention to run a 15% profit on gross, that would be 1.5m, or 0.13 cents per share (1.5m/1107m). At a PE of 45, that would be 45 * .13 = 5.85 cent share price, or considerably more than trading today. (Check the maths yourself obviously.) And presumably with reasonable prospects for the future then.
Or maybe they will downgrade on the forecast in light of last year's experience.
It's all highly speculative. But nevertheless the market price appears to be entirely based on sentiment presently rather than maths. If the company were to surprise us by releasing a report designed to reassure the market, then the result could be interesting. And if not, then who knows.
All very fluid presently in my opinion. I have no idea what to expect.
Man, I've owned shares in BLT for 15 years and every day I hope that there's going to be exciting press release detailing how they've signed up some multi million dollar deal with some large global company. Alias, not to this point. Generally it's 1 step forward and 1.5 steps back....Year in, year out...
I believe in the science and the products but the marketing and therefore sales just doesn't seem to gather enough momentum.... Is it because it's pushed as a preventive or post illness "supplement". Myself, I do not use a "product" to stop me getting ill or one, once I've got better...I would guess that a great deal of the population has a similar outlook???? Yes, I know they have the lozengers which help a sore throat but I think they need to incorporate or develop a product which is actually used to cure or improve health at the time of the illness...
Take their fresh breath kit.. Bad breath is a problem and I'm sure there are days when my breath isn't as fresh as it could be but do I know that.... Sure, family or friends might tell you but what would you do about..... Buy some gum or mints and hope it goes away?? Additionally there appears to be some time and energy involved in using the kit to get the "maximum" benefit/results...
People want results, cures and with convenience. What about mints or gum which promote instant fresh breath (other products do that) but incorporates properties which prevent bad breath occurring and agreesively market that point of difference???
What about putting the science into infant formula, milk powder, honey or other dairy products??? Get involved with Fonterra or A2....
Perhaps pie in the sky stuff but I believe they need to change their approach from preventive or post to actual/cure/getting better...
Regards a frustrated shareholder....
I am fairly sure that the company could turn the share price around by committing to keeping costs in ratio to the income and never spending ahead of cashflow, thus locking in future profits. Better yet would be to commit to the actual ratio they would constantly aim at (eg 15% profit on gross, which seems to me to be eminently sensible as a target) so that the market had some certainty of what was coming. This would remove (most of) the speculative element in owning BLT shares and we might finally see some interest from non-present-holders who undoubtedly look at the price history of BLT with trepidation.
Hi Simla and thanks for keeping the interest up.....your posts are invaluable in that regard and you clearly do more research than most of us. Disappointing to see the SP at these old levels again for sure but Im not surprised given the change in sentiment over the last few months. Pity. Anyway Im seeing it as a buying opportunity as I really do believe this will be short lived.........too much work is going on behind the scenes and too much money going into rebuilding/rebranding for results then sentiment not to turn soon.......IMHO.
Almost halfway to my 3 year holding plan and the price now is just slightly a tad higher when I started buying. So I am not disillusioned yet. That "gut feel" is still strong on this one :cool:
Well, certainly it is hard to see prospects not improving over time. The problem is that we've said that for a few years now yet costs keep eating the profits. It would so great for the company to make some sort of commitment on that front.
One difficulty with the staff all being so recent is that it is very hard for them to appreciate just how very very long shareholders have held in here. I would compare it to checkout staff looking at older people irritatedly for being able to afford good food. They simply cannot appreciate what a very long time several decades is and how much effort it is to save up over those long decades - decades is just a word for them and it just means "slightly longer then it was for me" when you haven't actually been there and done that. I've been in this for ten years and that is ten times as long as people who joined in 2016. Ten times is a very long time ... but again, just words if you haven't been there.