Bull Correction or Bear Reversal
I’d like to say that I’ve appreciated a lot of the discussion on this and other threads in regard to whether we are encountering a bull market correction or a bear market reversal. Complements to you all.
I understand secular and cyclical market technical’s, the average age of bull markets, and the age of this bull market. But, when I spin around I do not see the exuberance required to catalyse a reversal to a bear market. I’m not suggesting that there aren’t issues out there, or over the horizon, but at present it feels to me to be more like 1984 or 2005 rather than 1987 or 2008.
1986: My flatmates were having a pissing contest over how many brierly shares they had accumulated on their credit cards. In what seemed like a short duration every set of traffic lights in Wellington where I was living suddenly had a shiny new BMW. It was clear to a lot of us that this was not going to last.
2007: I was living in Auckland, young folk in my office were buying new homes with 5% deposit, smoko room discussion was how to buy self-funding rental properties, and remember all those property development shows on TV. Again it was clear it wasn’t going to last.
I’m just a humble observer of life trying to understand the view of others, and perhaps I am missing something.
Can those with a bear view convey to us all which market they feel is about to burst and what signs of extreme exuberance you feel are manifesting in making a bear market assessment at this time ?.