TIL - Trilogy [formerly ECO - Ecoya]

FORECAST: ECO: Ecoya - Earnings Update

Ecoya provides earnings upgrade and continues growth trajectory

Ecoya Limited (NZX:ECO) has today outlined its guidance for the year ended 31
March 2014 and confirmed it expects to exceed previous market guidance for
the 31 March 2013 year.

Revenue is expected to be $26.6M for the year ended 31 March 2013
representing an 18% year-on-year increase. At EBITDA for the full year, Ecoya
expects a profit of greater than $1.1M which is up on the breakeven
prediction made in November last year. This update is based on unaudited
financial statements and the company will announce its final audited result
for the year prior to 31 May 2013.

The company outlined its growth initiatives at its AGM in September 2012
including significant investments in product, packaging and brand. The
forecast profit result at EBITDA has been achieved on the back of the
platform built in the first half of the year.

The Ecoya group expects this growth to continue and is forecasting revenue in
excess of $30M for the year ended 31 March 2014, with a forecast EBITDA
profit in excess of $2M for the full year.

The Ecoya business is seasonal with the Christmas gifting period falling
within the second half of the financial year. The group expects a similar
seasonal profit in the coming financial year, as was experienced in the year
ending 31 March 2013.

The business continues to grow with opportunities both locally and within the
international markets.

Key recent wins include the expansion of Trilogy's distribution and reach in
the UK market via all 27 John Lewis stores throughout Great Britain, and a
distribution deal with Sigma, a leading wholesale and distribution business
to pharmacy and owner of three of Australia's best known pharmacy retail
brands - Amcal Max, Amcal and Guardian. The group has over 450 stores
nationwide and the new retail partnership gives Trilogy core product ranging
in all stores.

Revenue for Trilogy in Australia is up 30% on last year making Australia the
biggest market for the Trilogy brand. Trilogy now represents 60% of total
group revenue.

At 31 March 2013 net debt was $6.6M down from $8.4M at 30 September 2012,
resulting in headroom of $2.9M on a total facility of $9.5M. The company
plans to further reduce net debt through continued positive trading.

I beleive Trilogy's products are very good,and the future for them is good.
But the company or share price appears to have built in 5 or 10 years future profit already.
With 61.2 mil shares at today's 95cents the market cap is $58.179 mil,yet revenue is expected to grow to only $30mil for the year end 31.3.2014 and ebitda of over $2mil.So instead of spending my $58.179mil on buying ECO I would earn more leaving it in my savings account at my bank.!! Why bother?

If the share price remains around Friday’s close of $0.86, there is no advantage in exercising the warrants. Will be waiting to see their results due out at the end of May before considering my options.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by moosie_900

A pretty nice call of enthusiasm for Ecoya when the SP is 12% under the warrant price!

ECO
03/05/2013 13:06
EXERCISE

REL: 1306 HRS Ecoya Limited

EXERCISE: ECO: Business Bakery to exercise ECOYA Warrants

ECOYA Limited (NZX:ECO) advised today that it has written to warrant holders
regarding the exercise of ECOYA Series 2 warrants (NZX:ECOWB). The final
exercise date for the 2,581,893 warrants on issue is 15 June 2013.

The company recently advised the market of an earnings upgrade in respect to
the result for the year ended 31 March 2013. Earnings before interest tax and
depreciation for the year ended 31 March 2013 is expected to be in excess of
$1.1m which is much higher than the breakeven prediction made in November
last year.

Major shareholder the Business Bakery has advised that it will exercise the
720,653 Series 2 warrants that it holds.
ECOYA will announce the full audited result for the year prior to 31 May
2013.

For further information contact;
CEO - Stephen Sinclair
Mobile: 021 33 00 53
End CA:00235857 For:ECO Type:EXERCISE Time:2013-05-03 13:06:34

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by waikare

If the share price remains around Friday’s close of $0.86, there is no advantage in exercising the warrants. Will be waiting to see their results due out at the end of May before considering my options.

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Except importantly that the proceeds go to Ecoya! Pretty worthy approach from the main shareholders and certainly a sign of confidence or pessimisitically a sign that they're running out of cash?

But for me this looks like a good bet, in November the forecast for Year End was breakeven, now 4 months later its for 1mil+, if we look now to forecast to 2014 we could be seeing 4mil+ profit, which would certainly see this SP move in a northerly direction.


p.s Yes I do hold a small parcel of ECO so bias is at play;)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by boofters

Pretty worthy approach from the main shareholders and certainly a sign of confidence or

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but for anyone who can buy on market, no reason to exercise.

Disc: I took a punt and lost big time. I wont be exercising my warrents.

Who knows how to rename a thread ;)

Trading on a EBITDA multiple of over 20 times for FYE March 2014.

Only one way for this stock to go.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Balance

Trading on a EBITDA multiple of over 20 times for FYE March 2014.

Only one way for this stock to go.

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Give us a clue.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Under Surveillance

Give us a clue.

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This happens when when you light a candle.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by CJ

This happens when when you light a candle.

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Snr. Cj
Your finger burns - yes?