2017 the year in review.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/d...in-in-2017html

What a year for the construction sector eh...FBU and MPG posting huge losses amidst a booming building industry backdrop and a booming NZX.
ATM what a year, could we see a repeat in 2018 ? THL what a little gem that's turned out to be. FPH a big surprise for me this year, haven't held, always seen as too expensive but another stellar year. Disappointed with SUM but expecting big things for 2018... Very pleased with AIR going up over 50% seeing as so many people were calling it a basket case or words to that effect in late 2016. Not expecting much (if anything or maybe negative returns) from AIR for 2018 though for reasons shared on that thread.
Feel free to share your thoughts reviewing 2017.

Yes, hard to go wrong on the NZX this year - unless heavily into FBU, MPG and the odd other stock. I've also gone through life thinking FPH was always too expensive but finally bit the bullet in 2016 and bought a few. Added some more during 2017 so more than pleased with that particular decision.
Too much to expect anything better than a fair to average year for the market in 2018?

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Originally Posted by macduffy

Yes, hard to go wrong on the NZX this year - unless heavily into FBU, MPG and the odd other stock. I've also gone through life thinking FPH was always too expensive but finally bit the bullet in 2016 and bought a few. Added some more during 2017 so more than pleased with that particular decision.
Too much to expect anything better than a fair to average year for the market in 2018?

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That's the $64,000 question ! I finally got around to reading John Ryder's final 2017 globally focused newsletter the other day in which interestingly he talked about their strategy of buying an equal weight of the ten dogs of the Dow each year. The theory being that the worst ten performers in any one year have historically outperformed in the following year. Very interestingly the ten DOW dogs they have earmarked for investment for 2018 have an average forward PE of 27 !! (That is not a typo) I got to reflecting as you do at this time of year, with interest rates set to remain at generation lows perhaps PE's in the mid 20's or so are not too expensive as long as they have sound growth prospects and perhaps they still have excellent prospects going forward ?

I hate to think what the ten worst dogs of 2017 were on the NZX! At least the Dow Industrials have E's to calculate PE's from!

:ohmy:

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Originally Posted by macduffy

I hate to think what the ten worst dogs of 2017 were on the NZX! At least the Dow Industrials have E's to calculate PE's from!

:ohmy:

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The DOW [DJI] is only made up of 30 companies.
And yes this year has not required any skill on the NZX .
Two mistakes I made this year OIC and TIL, resulted in a 90% gain with one,and a 12.5% gain with the other?..Crazy.

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Originally Posted by percy

The DOW [DJI] is only made up of 30 companies.
And yes this year has not required any skill on the NZX .
Two mistakes I made this year OIC and TIL, resulted in a 90% gain with one,and a 12.5% gain with the other?..Crazy.

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What about TNR? :p

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Originally Posted by JeremyALD

What about TNR? :p

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TRA is one of two stocks,the other is PAZ on the unlisted market,that I have been fortunate enough to have added to my already large holdings,this year at reasonable prices,placing me "well positioned" for 2018,although PAZ may not shine until 2019.Both are very high conviction stocks for me,and they are my second and third largest holdings after HBL.TRA is paying good divies,while PAZ will not be in a position to pay divies for awhile,[as they have spent a great deal on their factory expansion and more equipment.May take all next year ramping up production.].
I am expecting one to rise 50% to 70% over the next two years, while the other may double,or triple ,or quadruple?.

High conviction is a stock I have brought a small parcel of shares,and as management have kept doing what they have said they would do,I have kept buying more shares.

NTL WAS A STAND OUT FOR ME Bought most at 0.006 and sold most at 0.027 .Now at 0.017
not sure what this year will bring from this one though . I made a 56% profit over all, so very comfortable with that. Probably never to be repeated ....
I made a good paper gain on PIL,but then didnt sell them quick enough .....
best of luck to all, and thank you for all your comments on each site, of course we all do our own form of research but it is good to have this forum.
Some of the time i am frustrated that i sold to early, other times that i sold too late , and just sometimes, i get it right ....

First year on the NZX ( US/AUS since 2014 ) and it has been a cracker... disappointed with the mammoth amount of missed opportunities that were basically in the shopping bag throughout the year.

SKO/JWI/AIR/XRO to name a few :/

Am a bit embarrassed to say on how much the old portfolio has gone up in last 12 months. But what started out as a part time hobby buying and selling shares a number of years ago, has now turned into a full time job with annual income increasing about 2,700% from my old self employed part time job. Can always go back to old job if things go sour. The main reason for large increase in 2017 for me was ATM, AIR and HLG and a bit of divy stripping. In the mean time, I will be in the garden weeding:mellow:. Have a happy and safe new year one and all:).

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Originally Posted by see weed

Am a bit embarrassed to say on how much the old portfolio has gone up in last 12 months. But what started out as a part time hobby buying and selling shares a number of years ago, has now turned into a full time job with annual income increasing about 2,700% from my old self employed part time job. Can always go back to old job if things go sour. The main reason for large increase in 2017 for me was ATM, AIR and HLG and a bit of divy stripping. In the mean time, I will be in the garden weeding:mellow:. Have a happy and safe new year one and all:).

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Well done.....

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Originally Posted by see weed

Am a bit embarrassed to say on how much the old portfolio has gone up in last 12 months. But what started out as a part time hobby buying and selling shares a number of years ago, has now turned into a full time job with annual income increasing about 2,700% from my old self employed part time job. Can always go back to old job if things go sour. The main reason for large increase in 2017 for me was ATM, AIR and HLG and a bit of divy stripping. In the mean time, I will be in the garden weeding:mellow:. Have a happy and safe new year one and all:).

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Nice one see weed, what a cool full time job you have,I couldn't imagine anything more pleasurable.

Business Insider reporting that the S&P500 went up every month in 2017, for the first time ever. Certainly the sentiment in the market is becoming more and more bearish about the market in 2018, however the markets are certainly much more resistant than they were 10 years ago or before that.

A lot of the those that are purporting to a stock market correction or crash are doing so on the basis of, "we haven't had a crash for a while so we are due now". Certainly there are people who have been saying this for a few years now but without some major international event or a accumulation of events its hard to say. Keep in mind the market has taken things in stride with Brexit, Trump and North Korea is 2017 so it might take something more.

I think it would take a major exogenous shock for world markets to turn bearish. Synchronized world wide growth appears in very good shape aided and abetted by reserve banks around the world taking a helpful and apparently at least to some extent, a coordinated approach to keeping interest rates at generation lows. Hopefully such a shock doesn't occur and we get another year of good gains. According to several experts I've listed too on CNBC, emerging markets are at a significantly earlier stage of the bull cycle...something to perhaps consider as a fresh investment strategy for 2018 ?

It's official...... longer term momentum investing won in 2017 according to Bloomberg

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Originally Posted by Beagle

I think it would take a major exogenous shock for world markets to turn bearish. Synchronized world wide growth appears in very good shape aided and abetted by reserve banks around the world taking a helpful and apparently at least to some extent, a coordinated approach to keeping interest rates at generation lows. Hopefully such a shock doesn't occur and we get another year of good gains. According to several experts I've listed too on CNBC, emerging markets are at a significantly earlier stage of the bull cycle...something to perhaps consider as a fresh investment strategy for 2018 ?

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Pimco has some great insight about that as well... they forecast a great 2017 market, they are conservative to say the least and having them up beat ( more so away from US markets ) about 2018 has some positive implications for the rest of us.

Attachment 9374

Looks like emerging markets are the place to be for 2018...

Japanese equities are cheap vs global mean as well... could be the year to move a lot of weight into Asia. ( before the nuclear apocalypse )