NVDA - Nvidia

This surely must be the most undervalued stock on the Nasdaq. Sitting today at $151.59, just off its 52-week low of $148.62. Sold down mercilessly, and after a great quarter. What do these sellers know outside of what should be priced in already?

Their crypto market is shriveling up.

That's true but that's not their main market, not by a long shot. And that loss of market was telegraphed a long way back.

They make more money now from datacenters and data and A.I. than from "graphics cards".

Gonna be a new 52-week low !

Looks like any other tech stock IMO.

Check out SHOP.

I'm watching MSTR for a buy... I love danger! But gonna sit on my hands for US stock buys until Aug/Sep.

Meta Platforms to increase datacentre GPUs, for A.I., by FIVE TIMES [no provider mentioned but good chance it will be Nvidia].--Internal Meta Platforms memo

It's becoming where I dread market open lol...

Ahh sweet Nvidia goodness........ Any of you chumps buy it?

I wish….. ;)

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Originally Posted by Azz

Ahh sweet Nvidia goodness........ Any of you chumps buy it?

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Do you follow the gaming graphic card market? It used to be Nvidia's bread and butter, but of course they are rejoicing the margins in AI at the moment. They are seriously pissing off their loyal gaming customers - have a read (or listen) of/to any of the RTX 4060 series articles as an example, and you will see the company is gathering a lot of hate around it. (Similar for the higher end cards except the 4090).

They don't care about this right now (and they may well do well in the shorter term), but I suspect they will regret it at some stage.

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Originally Posted by cyclist

Do you follow the gaming graphic card market? It used to be Nvidia's bread and butter, but of course they are rejoicing the margins in AI at the moment. They are seriously pissing off their loyal gaming customers - have a read (or listen) of/to any of the RTX 4060 series articles as an example, and you will see the company is gathering a lot of hate around it. (Similar for the higher end cards except the 4090).

They don't care about this right now (and they may well do well in the shorter term), but I suspect they will regret it at some stage.

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That's an interesting point; I don't think it matters tho. A.I. is at the beginning of the beginning. Nvidia has invented the first A.I. pure play; of note however is the A.I. software they have that builds virtual worlds in real time; that "fills in the blanks"; and it's super high quality - what I'm saying here is, don't discount the new way of doing "graphics cards": from the datacenter!!!!!!

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Originally Posted by pedro.nz

I wish….. ;)

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I only own one US stock. And it just happens to be the best stock on the US stock market!

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Originally Posted by Azz

Ahh sweet Nvidia goodness........ Any of you chumps buy it?

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Yes I bought a few last year and wish I had bought more. Not sure about buying at current prices but will probably live to regret not doing so. Have been making small monthly purchases of ASML for the last 10 months and am continuing to do so. A slightly different way of being invested in the semiconductor industry.

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Originally Posted by iceman

Yes I bought a few last year and wish I had bought more. Not sure about buying at current prices but will probably live to regret not doing so. Have been making small monthly purchases of ASML for the last 10 months and am continuing to do so. A slightly different way of being invested in the semiconductor industry.

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I'm not one to hype stocks (haha!) but Nvidia has a lonnnnng way to run!

Up some more, +2.39%. Oh delirium!

Friday close: US$467.50

Its PE ratio is around 242. Growth investors are paying high premium to buy it. Also AI factor. I am really looking for early stage growth stocks now before crowds come in droves.

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Originally Posted by Azz

Friday close: US$467.50

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Originally Posted by Valuegrowth

Its PE ratio is around 242. Growth investors are paying high premium to buy it. Also AI factor. I am really looking for early stage growth stocks now before crowds come in droves.

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Earnings might go up, and quite a bit - which solves the PE problem. This is basically my take on Nvidia.

The sector is now an outperformer in the USA market.

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Originally Posted by Azz

Earnings might go up, and quite a bit - which solves the PE problem. This is basically my take on Nvidia.

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Originally Posted by Valuegrowth

The sector is now an outperformer in the USA market.

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If you mean A.I., we ain't seen nothing yet!

"Bernstein says the current limitation on Nvidia’s revenue is advanced chip- packaging capacity at semiconductor foundries. As packaging capacity expands next year, Nvidia will have the potential to generate $75 billion to $90 billion in data-center AI revenue for 2024, versus the $42 billion consensus call among Wall Street analysts, the analysts say."

https://www.barrons.com/articles/nvi...emand-a19c4644

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Originally Posted by Azz

Friday close: US$467.50

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$500 soon !!!!!!

The volume is unreal. Two hours in and US$6 billion worth of shares traded.

Q2 earnings out mid-week, Azz fans. This is for a quarter that they had to raise revenue outlook for by 50% (to US$11 billion)! Let's see if they hit it......

US$453.04
+4.63%
As at 12:11PM EDT

Smashed expectations. ATH, after hours. I wonder if the clique of socialists and climate changers here on this site bought the stock!

Analyst price targets on this puppy prior to results went north of $800. What a stock! The best in the world.

2T Market cap coming up soon.

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Originally Posted by strikereureka

2T Market cap coming up soon.

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Agree. With one caveat:

China.

* A stupid move by China on Taiwan, and/or
* a meltdown of the Chinese economy.

Be very interesting where this one goes tomorrow as it jumped $30:00 immediately in the after hours market (6.75%) so guessing more of the same tomorrow.
Disc: Bought a few just prior to announcement so pretty happy with the result so far... :)

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Originally Posted by pedro.nz

Be very interesting where this one goes tomorrow as it jumped $30:00 immediately in the after hours market (6.75%) so guessing more of the same tomorrow.
Disc: Bought a few just prior to announcement so pretty happy with the result so far... :)

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We have two more trading days this week. Going to be interesting!

US$509.90
+8.22%
Pre-market 5:22AM EDT

Friday close: US$460.18

I don't think this is a case of "buy on rumour, sell on news". The results were stunning, way above most expectations. Market participants either feel fatigue and confusion from what's being created here, or the entire stock market is over-bought.

A bit of profit taking I suspect as the results as you say were outstanding...

Wednesday close: US$492.64

Agree with this guys sentiment about why #1 better bet than #2 …..but made me wonder if that multiple is reverting back closer to past levels.

@michaelfrazis
$NVDA vs $AMD ... another case study in buying the #1 vs the #2 in any industry

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Originally Posted by winner69

…..but made me wonder if that multiple is reverting back closer to past levels.

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Good point. And that can happen in a couple of ways...

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLV...NM8ltPW892RUKw

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Originally Posted by percy

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLV...NM8ltPW892RUKw

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Hey percy …I wouldn’t have clicked on link if you posted the headline as well


Nvidia is a stock bubble and its popping could trigger a broader market crash, investing legend Rob Arnott says

"Nvidia is a stock bubble and its popping could trigger a broader market crash, investing legend Rob Arnott says"

hahahahahahahahahahaha !!!

They bring in US$2,000 a SECOND !

Confusing an undervalued stock that is killing it in sales and cornering the market, with an overvalued stock with no nothing lol. Schoolboy error!

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Originally Posted by Azz

"Nvidia is a stock bubble and its popping could trigger a broader market crash, investing legend Rob Arnott says"

hahahahahahahahahahaha !!!

They bring in US$2,000 a SECOND !

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You pay $1,140,000,000,000 for that, definitely not worth it just for what it's currently earning. Market is pricing in some absurd growth assumptions which may or may not play out.

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Originally Posted by Azz

Confusing an undervalued stock that is killing it in sales and cornering the market, with an overvalued stock with no nothing lol. Schoolboy error!

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Undervalued by which measure?

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Originally Posted by ValueNZ

You pay $1,140,000,000,000 for that, definitely not worth it just for what it's currently earning. Market is pricing in some absurd growth assumptions which may or may not play out.

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The best company, in the number one industry, in the world. That's what I've bought. Take a look at Nvidia's revenues over the last few quarters. Have you heard of A.I.? Have you heard of datacenters?

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Originally Posted by ValueNZ

Undervalued by which measure?

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Demand for the stock.

Second Quarter Fiscal 2024
* Record revenue of $13.51 billion, up 88% from Q1, up 101% from year ago
* Record Data Center revenue of $10.32 billion, up 141% from Q1, up 171% from year ago

Low US$400s - a good time to get in before the next quarter is presented!

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Originally Posted by ValueNZ

I think you ought to study the history of the stock market. There are endless examples of absurdly priced companies that fool many people into buying due to hype and ignoring fundamentals. Personally I believe (so does Bloomstran - you'd be wise to follow his advice) that Nvidia draws parallels to Microsoft in 1999 with its high P/E ratio, hype, and absurd growth assumptions built into the price. I think Nvidia will go down in the history books as one of these absurdly priced companies where countless people lost a sh1t ton of money.

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Just popping this gem into the Nvidia thread.

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Originally Posted by Azz

Just popping this gem into the Nvidia thread.

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Great idea, if I can stop just one person buying into this company it will have been worth it

Let's see over time if Nvidia's share price performance beats a New Zealand retirement home operator.

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Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

A curse on you is surely coming soon, like who would suggest a SP that has had a 4-500% increase in a short while, and recently a 25% selloff, despite the pumping, would be in the sights of the short sellers? They must be morons.

You obviously don't get it that AI is the future, Nvidia also owns AI, they're the sole beneficiary of AI, and their earnings will outmatch any of the big five who've invested billions into AI, for 105 years at least, 105 PE is irrelevant as earnings will catch up and overtake PE (105 years for earnings to catch up with price).

What a great investment right now. Uh, yeah, ok, listening not listening. Short it? What moron would suggest that?

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This gem deserves to live here too.

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Originally Posted by Azz

This gem deserves to live here too.

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Hey Azz, happy that you freeze frame, maybe one day you'll be able to come back and have a laugh. NVDA is already a $1T market cap, that's pretty impressive, but it's gone from roughly $20B to $1+T in a few weeks, into the top 3 by market cap, so hardly surprising the market is taking profits.

Current price has lifted a bit so that's encouraging, and shorts have dropped off a bit as well. It's an insto's game though, so it pays as a minnow to be alert to the macro movements. Below are the insto's who are currently short NVDA, but not to be deceived, they are probably long as well as their short is likely to be a hedge against their longs that have come off the boil.

I would suggest to try to understand this for a better insight into what the market is thinking, it's the options market which provides a good look into which side of the equation the market is favouring as it tries to look into the future. It takes a bit to get your head around, but basically it's the weekly bets into the future on whether the stock price will go up or down. Much more reliable indicator of sentiment than a share price chart, or just buy and hold and hope for the best.

Anyway, here's the list of morons who are shorting NVDA right now, it makes one wonder why they would:
Which institutional investors are shorting NVIDIA?
As of the most recent reporting period, the following institutional investors, funds, and major shareholders have reported short positions of NVIDIA: Chapin Davis Inc., Wolverine Trading LLC, Wells Fargo & Company MN, Walleye Capital LLC, Walleye Trading LLC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., DRW Securities LLC, Point72 Middle East FZE, Readystate Asset Management LP, Royal Bank of Canada, Summit Partners Public Asset Management LLC, Hudson Bay Capital Management LP, Ionic Capital Management LLC, Beacon Pointe Advisors LLC, Caas Capital Management LP, Citadel Advisors LLC, CMT Capital Markets Trading GmbH, Capula Management Ltd, Whitebox Advisors LLC, Tudor Investment Corp Et Al, Two Sigma Securities LLC, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors LLC, Eisler Capital US LLC, Marshall Wace LLP, Garda Capital Partners LP, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Capital Fund Management S.A., Parallax Volatility Advisers L.P., Chanos & Co LP, Alphadyne Asset Management LP, DRH Investments Inc., Lombard Odier Asset Management USA Corp, PEAK6 Investments LLC, BlackRock Inc., Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC, Hsbc Holdings PLC, HAP Trading LLC, Twin Tree Management LP, Covestor Ltd, JPMorgan Chase & Co., PARK CIRCLE Co, ExodusPoint Capital Management LP, Optiver Holding B.V., Hollencrest Capital Management, Shelton Capital Management, WS Management Lllp, Cetera Advisors LLC, Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, Mint Tower Capital Management B.V., Citigroup Inc., Saltoro Capital LP, BNP Paribas Arbitrage SNC, Lido Advisors LLC, Coastal Investment Advisors Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., XR Securities LLC, Monaco Asset Management SAM, Wolverine Asset Management LLC, Obermeyer Wood Investment Counsel Lllp, JGP Global Gestao de Recursos Ltda., Savant Capital LLC, Mission Wealth Management LP, Simplex Trading LLC, Maven Securities LTD, CTC LLC, Bank of Nova Scotia, Goldstream Capital Management Ltd, Steel Peak Wealth Management LLC, MAI Capital Management, Otter Creek Advisors LLC, Bank of Montreal Can, Oak Family Advisors LLC, McAdam LLC, LPL Financial LLC, Dakota Wealth Management, SpiderRock Advisors LLC, NEIRG Wealth Management LLC, Credit Agricole S A, CenterStar Asset Management LLC, Portman Square Capital LLP, Raymond James Financial Services Advisors Inc., Altshuler Shaham Ltd, Creative Planning, Austin Private Wealth LLC, Veracity Capital LLC, Hiddenite Capital Partners LP, Cutler Group LLC CA, Cadent Capital Advisors LLC, Capstone Triton Financial Group LLC, IMC Chicago LLC, AdvisorNet Financial Inc, and SG Americas Securities LLC. These positions are disclosed in Form 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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Originally Posted by Baa_Baa

Hey Azz, happy that you freeze frame, maybe one day you'll be able to come back and have a laugh. NVDA is already a $1T market cap, that's pretty impressive, but it's gone from roughly $20B to $1+T in a few weeks, into the top 3 by market cap, so hardly surprising the market is taking profits.

Current price has lifted a bit so that's encouraging, and shorts have dropped off a bit as well. It's an insto's game though, so it pays as a minnow to be alert to the macro movements. Below are the insto's who are currently short NVDA, but not to be deceived, they are probably long as well as their short is likely to be a hedge against their longs that have come off the boil.

I would suggest to try to understand this for a better insight into what the market is thinking, it's the options market which provides a good look into which side of the equation the market is favouring as it tries to look into the future. It takes a bit to get your head around, but basically it's the weekly bets into the future on whether the stock price will go up or down. Much more reliable indicator of sentiment than a share price chart, or just buy and hold and hope for the best.

Anyway, here's the list of morons who are shorting NVDA right now, it makes one wonder why they would:
Which institutional investors are shorting NVIDIA?
As of the most recent reporting period, the following institutional investors, funds, and major shareholders have reported short positions of NVIDIA: Chapin Davis Inc., Wolverine Trading LLC, Wells Fargo & Company MN, Walleye Capital LLC, Walleye Trading LLC, Goldman Sachs Group Inc., DRW Securities LLC, Point72 Middle East FZE, Readystate Asset Management LP, Royal Bank of Canada, Summit Partners Public Asset Management LLC, Hudson Bay Capital Management LP, Ionic Capital Management LLC, Beacon Pointe Advisors LLC, Caas Capital Management LP, Citadel Advisors LLC, CMT Capital Markets Trading GmbH, Capula Management Ltd, Whitebox Advisors LLC, Tudor Investment Corp Et Al, Two Sigma Securities LLC, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors LLC, Eisler Capital US LLC, Marshall Wace LLP, Garda Capital Partners LP, Jefferies Financial Group Inc., Capital Fund Management S.A., Parallax Volatility Advisers L.P., Chanos & Co LP, Alphadyne Asset Management LP, DRH Investments Inc., Lombard Odier Asset Management USA Corp, PEAK6 Investments LLC, BlackRock Inc., Quinn Opportunity Partners LLC, Hsbc Holdings PLC, HAP Trading LLC, Twin Tree Management LP, Covestor Ltd, JPMorgan Chase & Co., PARK CIRCLE Co, ExodusPoint Capital Management LP, Optiver Holding B.V., Hollencrest Capital Management, Shelton Capital Management, WS Management Lllp, Cetera Advisors LLC, Cetera Advisor Networks LLC, Mint Tower Capital Management B.V., Citigroup Inc., Saltoro Capital LP, BNP Paribas Arbitrage SNC, Lido Advisors LLC, Coastal Investment Advisors Inc., Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., XR Securities LLC, Monaco Asset Management SAM, Wolverine Asset Management LLC, Obermeyer Wood Investment Counsel Lllp, JGP Global Gestao de Recursos Ltda., Savant Capital LLC, Mission Wealth Management LP, Simplex Trading LLC, Maven Securities LTD, CTC LLC, Bank of Nova Scotia, Goldstream Capital Management Ltd, Steel Peak Wealth Management LLC, MAI Capital Management, Otter Creek Advisors LLC, Bank of Montreal Can, Oak Family Advisors LLC, McAdam LLC, LPL Financial LLC, Dakota Wealth Management, SpiderRock Advisors LLC, NEIRG Wealth Management LLC, Credit Agricole S A, CenterStar Asset Management LLC, Portman Square Capital LLP, Raymond James Financial Services Advisors Inc., Altshuler Shaham Ltd, Creative Planning, Austin Private Wealth LLC, Veracity Capital LLC, Hiddenite Capital Partners LP, Cutler Group LLC CA, Cadent Capital Advisors LLC, Capstone Triton Financial Group LLC, IMC Chicago LLC, AdvisorNet Financial Inc, and SG Americas Securities LLC. These positions are disclosed in Form 13F filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

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The main laughable thing about your desire to talk about shorting Nvidia (apart from you obviously not shorting it yourself aka "being chicken"), is that you have predicted the future after it's happened! The price went down. And now you're talking about it after it happened! Congratulations!

I would suggest that you try to understand this for better insight: The more idiot shorts the better - they will have to scramble to find Nvidia shares to buy so as to cover when the squeeze gets put on, and believe me it will get put on, and soon.

Nvidia's Q3 earnings date is confirmed for Tuesday November 21, after market.

Short after the pump. Your clients pay the price and you make the money.

[Putting this from another thread into the Nvidia thread]

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Originally Posted by SailorRob

You would have to be a real moron to short NVDA or even to be bearish in any way on this company.

Being a chip manufacturer, margins will expand to at least double where they are today and they will be able to grow revenue easily at 20% a year for the next decade, and they won't require much capital to do so. Nor will they come under attack from anyone or anywhere as they are the only company that can do AI, nobody else even knows what it is. This is NOT a boom bust industry.

Take your current revenue of 30 billion and grow it at 20% for the next decade (lots of companies have done this before not that hard) and then while this is happening double your margins (very simple to do in this industry) and you end up in 2033 with revenue of 220 Billion and a 40% margin sees you with 88 billion net income, then of course after all this you will capitalise at 30 times those earnings for a company worth 2.6 trillion. This will give you a 9% return.

A 9% return for a company growing earnings at 20% a year for a decade and doubling margins and not spending any capital . Simple stuff folks...

Microsoft, Cisco, Intel, IBM, America Online, Oracle, Dell, Sun Micro systems, Qualcomm, Hewlett Packard.

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Welcome back, SailorRob.

[Putting this from another thread into the Nvidia thread]

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Originally Posted by SailorRob

AZZ perhaps you'd like to help these folk with poor basic numerical literacy, and let us know your estimates for revenue and net margin in 2030 and how much capital will be required to obtain these numbers.

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There are problems (good problems to have) with supply. The demand is so hot that they're actually sold out and a lot of work is being done to meet this demand. It actually makes quarterly reporting incredible because any product not shipped due to a supply issue in a quarter means when it's made it just hits the next quarter! I've never seen anything like it. There could be shares issued by the company, it's been talked about. But really there's so much cash coming in, a spend-up can be done just from that. And the fab plants in US they're (TSMC) trying to build are delayed because the US workforce is too stoned and useless and lazy, they can't find decent workers lol. 2030 is too far away to talk actual numbers; my instinct is that it will become the biggest company in the world.

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Originally Posted by Azz

the fab plants in US they're (TSMC) trying to build are delayed because the US workforce is too stoned and useless and lazy, they can't find decent workers lol.

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The first fab is scheduled to be operational by 2024; the second, nearby, and set to make 3nm chips - the most advanced currently being produced - is scheduled to be operational by 2026 (both in Arizona). Skilled workers from Taiwan are currently in Arizona to help out the 12,000 US workers on-site building the first fab.

[Putting this from another thread into the Nvidia thread]

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Originally Posted by Azz

I meant market cap.

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A lot of this is determined on who grabs the "middle ground" of A.I., and how it's grabbed. Middle ground I see as entire corporate functions swapped-out for plug-ins at a datacentre (ie, A.I. for rent, for use by corporates). So far, Nvidia is leading in this area, but there will be competition (though most of that competition will be using Nvidia hardware!).

PE fans: Forward is 40.65. And that will be for estimates possibly 50% too low.

[Putting this from another thread into the Nvidia thread]

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Originally Posted by Snoopy

Well Azz, I am not saying you are wrong. But in my experience the best investment returns are made when there is a disconnection between price and long term value. if Nvidia is the future and it is priced as though it takes over the future, then there is no money to be made by buying Nvidia now. But do you really think that Nvidia will have a free run to exploit AI? That no competitor will ever emerge? That the Nvidia business plan will run to perfection? I am not saying it won't happen. But an awful lot of ducks have to line up to make Nvidia a good investment from here, if you buy in today.



Exponential growth will take care of the earnings. No need to worry about that old fashioned PE stuff. It is different this time......

Some of us who have been around the markets a while have heard this story before.

SNOOPY

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Let's see who's right. I'm saying Nvidia will be a massive gainer, from here. (Timeframe: 2 years, and 5 years, and 10 years.)

[Putting this from another thread into the Nvidia thread]

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Originally Posted by Joshuatree

Hey Azz, there will be competitors clammering to fill the gap,compete it's a natural law.Have you researched who the contenders will be even if they're not up to speed yet?

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They have to make their own chips. A lot of the A.I. "competitors" so far are using the Nvidia hardware backbone. Amazon, for example, is going all-in with A.I.; they use Nvidia chips, but moving forward intend to design and make their own, at least for a portion of their A.I. software; of note, is these Amazon chips are not as powerful as Nvidia's.

Thanks Azz.Meanwhile it looks like Nvidia is on another leg up from here . Maybe Mike from Pie funds was spot on ehh .

"Nvidia has unveiled its latest artificial intelligence (AI) chip which it says can do some tasks 30 times faster than its predecessor."

https://www.msn.com/en-my/money/tops...or/ar-BB1k7vK6

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tec...rcomputing-bid

Thank for those links Valuegrowth - it’s truely amazing the speed at which the development of AI Is occurring isn’t it…
Have been trading NVDA, AMD and SMCI for a while now :)

https://www.asiafinancial.com/nvidia...n-se-asia-push

NVDA) today reported revenue for the fourth quarter ended January 28, 2024, of $22.1 billion, up 22% from the previous quarter and up 265% from a year ago. For the quarter, GAAP earnings per diluted share was $4.93, up 33% from the previous quarter and up 765% from a year ago.

NVIDIA (NVDA) announces a 10-to-1 stock split, increases dividend NVIDIA's upcoming stock split will go into effect starting in the first week of June 2024.

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Originally Posted by pedro.nz

Thank for those links Valuegrowth - it’s truely amazing the speed at which the development of AI Is occurring isn’t it…
Have been trading NVDA, AMD and SMCI for a while now :)

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Nvidia is bucking the trend. Top winners are those who bought it at very attractive levels at the beginning of the mega trend. They are also going to benefit from the announced splits.