Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER

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Originally Posted by Hoop

"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." ....Quote Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury (Sept. 1929)

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I'm going to save this one for 2020.

"Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far but I do think we're much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don't believe it will be," ... Quote Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve. (June. 2017)

To be fair and taking an overall perspective of the role Central banks I think they have done very well up to about 3 years ago.. since then it's been a "C" pass mark...From my perspective living in NZ at this time, most of the public in NZ never felt the full impact of the 2008 GFC (for NZ much smaller Global recessions had a bigger impact e.g 1991) so most of us are unaware of the scale of this great recession..

Due to the Monetary Policy "smoothing effect" The GFC effects and the afternath recession is still being felt in the large world economies..That give us some idea of the enormity of that crisis...With huge amounts of Monetary easing at a scale never seen before in history the GFC was contained to a very large recession rather than a Great Depression which could have been worse than the 1930-34 GD

The problem with Huge monetary easing (manipulation) it takes a longer time to revert back to "normal"...One worrying long term effects is the various market's lack of automated direction due to Systems network communication disruption, that automatically controls and maintains checks and balances..Uncle Ben ex-FED knew these new super effective untried monetary policy tools had a limited life (3 to 4 years) before the market systems would become out of balance and create bubbles....Its been 9 years now..

The S&P 500 (Wall St) is one effected market ..because of the system interupt (communication channels disrupt) Wall St is steaming onwards and upwards defying all Market checks and balances and Theories.

The FA Guru Elites have been scratching their heads in dismay for some time now at the lack of market recorrections to restore balance to this chronic overvalued market....

For the TAer it is normal business as usual as the medium/long term charts have continued (for years now) to say "no worries" just keep buying and accumulating....

We now reached a point where investors now think this Market is the new "normal".. Joe and Jane Public are entering the market in droves..using the passive route (indexed fund managers and ETFs) and with the increasing Company growth and earnings investors are very happy and disassociate themselves away from the FA Doom Sayers.....DOW theory recognises this behaviour as a stage 3 Bull market...but..the masses now says the simplistic DOW is obsolete in this modern more complex world and they have moved on.

Fundamentally speaking..The Market can stay "irrational" longer than the Fundamentist can stay "rational".....When the Fundamentalist can no longer stand the pain sitting on the sidelines and re-enters....the real fun begins....eh?

A nice quote....."Don't worry when a bubble shows up. Only worry when a prick shows up"...:D

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Originally Posted by Hoop

A nice quote....."Don't worry when a bubble shows up. Only worry when a prick shows up"...:D

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Too true!Te he :)

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Originally Posted by Hoop

I'll get back to you Dela 47 when I have time..Probably off topic but somewhat related..(sort of):)

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Have a look at my post here re: ETFs and other "passive" type managed funds

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Originally Posted by winner69

S&P up 9% in 1st half of year

When S&P up more then 6% in first half it kicks on and has a great full year with full year returns from 10% to 30%

No worries

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It's going to happen again .... Full year going to be great.

No end in sight for the S&P going up

Here we go again!!!...My Sentiment indicator (bar at the bottom of the charts) has gone red... again...

An interesting scenario has developed..Since March the S&P500 Index has continued its bull market cycle record breaking rallies with a decreasing percentage of stocks in their own bull cycle..this downtrending divergence trend is worrying. If this trend continues there will a point in time when the remaining stocks (still in their bull cycles) will be unable to keep the S&P500 index in its uptrend..

Attachment 9078

More than half the stocks on the S&P500 below their 200MA

Rising tide lifts all boats .......hmmmm

Interesting

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Originally Posted by winner69

More than half the stocks on the S&P500 below their 200MA

Rising tide lifts all boats .......hmmmm

Interesting

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What about the falling tide? 100DMA is in play, will it provide support? SP500 200DMA isn't that far below. So many listed companies beneath their 200DMA, is not a good sign. VIX got some upside as well, the house of cards is looking vulnerable. NZX is bit player on the whipping hose.

new high motherflickers
Attachment 9162

S&P500 closing in on 2500

Time to start talking about 2750 .......then 3000

No worries aw

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Originally Posted by Hoop

...An interesting scenario has developed..Since March the S&P500 Index has continued its bull market cycle record breaking rallies with a decreasing percentage of stocks in their own bull cycle..

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Good news...eh ..another record high
The flick side is there are less stocks in their bull cycles than the previous index high (early August).. 65% then.....62.5% now

Probably why my sentiment indicator keeps crying wolf...Spikes in Volatility: The New Normal

Fear and Greed meter almost off the scale - the greed end that is

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/?iid=H_INV_QL

Give this a read guys - http://www.mauldineconomics.com/down...rything-bubble