Hmmm... BaaBaa nice rising wedge... too steep to be sustainable and the VIX at 14 infers not much trend volatility for a little while (30 days)..an interesting mix..eh ?...either a continuing straight line up or flat-lining?
Rising wedge reversal breakouts can be lousy shorting opportunities (
Bulkowski). This sort of says any break out may be more of a side way movement with pullback or two stopping any major downward trend volatility.....a plateauing out?..pause?... Therefore the low VIX makes a sudden downward crash type movement in the next month a lower (32%) probability happening..
Although VIX is an S&P500 instrument it works OK for the DOW as the S&P500 and DOW correlate very well..
VIX at 14(%) = 68% probability the S&P500
volatility will range between +3.46% and -3.46%
** for the next month period
** 14% / √12 = 3.46%