With respect mate I think the investors who lost a whopping six billion dollars in finance companies in N.Z. would be highly likely to beg to differ !
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You seemed a bit grumpy the other night baa_baa but I'll forgive you. I mentioned this SUM channel it a few weeks ago and couts just wanted an update
Only done the maths and haven't bothered do a chart yet. It's -
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- Just a linear regression based on weekly closes from Nov 2011 (just after floating) to current date to give a line of best fit.
- All prices in this time period have been contained within 0.7 STDEV
- As at this week the regression has a price of 519 (mid point of the channel)
- If I drew a lower channel line this week it would be at 442 / the upper channel line would be at 597
- The SUM share price has been trending UP over this tie frame at 24% pa
You might say that a STDEV of 0.7 is quite high (77 cents) but with prices trending up at 24% pa I think it's quite reasonable - after all all prices have been contained within the channel
I didn't say it's going to the top - but based on the past it possibly could ... and could go down to the bottom .....or as you will appreciate the trend could break down completely and the share price could go anywhere.
But at te moment heading to the regression line - that's good eh
All inspired by your friend Mr Raff
In normal circumstances I'm happy to pay a Ben Graham no growth PE of 8.5 + 1g (don't like his 2g). If we assume the long term forecast growth rate going forward remains at 15% then a PE of 23.5 seems fair and reasonable so RYM about fair value at present. These are not normal circumstances however and when you can buy a proven growth stock deeply discounted in the same sector with a vastly better growth rate why pay a fair price elsewhere...
Mr market just beginning to realise a forward PE of 14 for SUM was too cheap. Our mate Coutts will be happy with his truck and also trailer full already :)
SALT must be copping a real beating on their short position in SUM and large short position in RYM !
Looks like picked the bottom, 30 cent buffer on last transaction already...
Looks like we returned today to the "good" side of the MA200 ... full steam ahead!
Good to see you guys all happy and excited again and recovering from that period when you were down in the dumps
Heading to 520 .....550 .....