First step in the 7 yr cycle
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0KY12320150125
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First step in the 7 yr cycle
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/...0KY12320150125
...Hoop, your cycle graph is actually fascinating. Do you know each length of the cycles when they all lined up??? How often has such an alignment occured historically???
The problem I find with cycle theory incl. Elliot wave is that the analyst always know in hindsight which cycle did what - top or trough-
...and there are so many cycles from 1000 years down to minutes that, in hindsight one or another cycle fits the picture always
kind regards
...despite the nasty downside, especially for those who were lured into the silly ASX200 bullish wolfs den over the course of this week, not all is doom and gloom.
No breakout has occurred in the NYA, Liquidity Inflows.
The VIX closed at 20.29, while the current breakout point is above 21.35. However, no positive Close tomorrow, and markets will be in real serious trouble
kind regards
Next week i expect a short squeeze for CGA:
http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...stock-on-earth
The reasons for my assumption is because of my fundament/investigative research and the first dividend what we received.
I have not so much knowledge abot chart technik and technical signals. Can someone with technical skills comment on that:
Attachment 6727
Hoop can probably clarify but I think that 'electric field/wave' chart was an illustration of how cycles eventually converge (the perfect storm, or 'freak wave'), rather than actually showing an investment instrument price scenario.
As an aside, I do like Elliottwave, I have to admit, but don't talk about it much here ... because in NZX stocks which I am focused on, the volume IMHO is way too low and the timeframes way too short to realistically apply the method .. there is no 'supercycle' so it's just speculation to devolve that down to yearly or monthly price movements. Can't comment about forex, as I don't know. But for a long term commodity, like gold or silver for example, Elliott has worked OK for me. You really need secular bull/bear market scenarios for Elliottwave to work imho. But it does help in those situations.
The point is whether one buys into the theory of cycles per se, and if they do, whether the current cycle is near or approaching the end of an up-cycle period (bull) or at or in the beginning of the next period (bear).
I may be repeating myself but for my part, and saying again .. I'm focused on NZX stocks at present, I just accept that the current period is, regardless of its length, very top heavy, and correlated to much larger markets like the DOW/SP500, and because capital preservation is my #1 priority, ahead of yield, and ahead of capital gains .. I'm prepared to just tighten up my stops a bit in case of a surprise to the downside, which in hindsight won't be a surprise, because we were watching the cycles, we knew it would happen eventually, and we put in place some simple risk mitigations.
I don't like to over think this stuff, or buy into the witchcraft. It's a lot easier to just say ... 'hey, yes, it is toppy and has been on a stellar run, so how about covering my risk by putting in some tighter stops' ... whatever pony you choose to ride.
Thoughts?
BAA
...yes this makes perfect sense
I do use the Elliot Wave because their analysis of pivot points, support and resistances are useful. When it comes to the count scenarios, honestly, I dont need a theory to tell me in how many directions the market can move. My thinking is, that the Elliot Wave or Hurst Cycles or any other theory based on a back-analysis is only as good as the person who's looking at it.
Trading and investing is a psychological phenomenon, where self-confidence, fearlessness, creativity, determination, knowledge (general and self) and ...CASH...creates winning profiles. Others would probably add 'greed' as main ingredient, and I would not argue with that. However, people usually driven by greed have a lack of self-control, over-inflated egos, use drugs which, in the end will create a loosing profile.
kind regards
Know in hindsight?....yes usually what happens:) when determining a behaviour of a cycle..but for those people watching a group of cycles which may (assuming no sudden altering changes) reach towards some sort of near convergence, it does give everyone a warning sign to be cautious..ie not the time to sell your house and plonk it all into the sharemarket....but..yeah it's the curly bit happenings (reversals) at the end of each cycle wave that's hard to time (predict) as its always the case in real life situations those waves may not have a constant frequency..but at least a probability rate can be determined
My personalised project is to use many related markets cycles that interact in someway with each other using the Equity Market as the central focus ..All cycles I use are orientated to the long or very long (secular) term as longer term cycles have more trending predictability because the secondary drivers whipsawing the market on a short term temporary basis are filtered out..Therefore the primary driver Inflation is left to dominate together with the secular primary driver the Annualised PE Ratio trend
As my personal TA Investor discipline requires >70% probability I usually don't bother using any of these shorter term disciplines unless my discipline throws up a decision problem.).... Using a shorter term cycle (time frame) it comes with more risk as the probability rate decreases due to secondary/tertiary drivers dominating the marketplace eg unexpected whipsaws due to noisy media etc..I'm not a great fan of Elliot waves when it reaches the subwaves in predicting short term outcomes ..Harmonic Trading is better (less risky if used on a much long term chart)..using Fibonacci numbers to determine chart patterns such as Gartley, Butterfly,Bat, Crab, etc...but I cant identify most of those harmonic patterns using my chart eyes.....so if its all too hard I don't bother.....simple !
Back on topic..
The S&P500 has broken up out of its 6 week down trending channel..so TA wise expect it to test its all time highs with a good chance it will form another record high