Closing in on all time high
No worries
(Weird how the world seems to believe all the media hype Bout the world ending)
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Closing in on all time high
No worries
(Weird how the world seems to believe all the media hype Bout the world ending)
lookin like the three methods is playing out correctly with the DOw fully engulfed
Attachment 8444
the SP still fullfilling the requirements
Attachment 8445
but there is still the best part of three weeks to go for the full monthly candle to complete.
Still I am not bearish on S&P 500 like others. It may have some volatility but as I said, it has more legs.
S&P500 through 2200
A bit of a struggle of late but next stop 2300
No worries
Closed above 2250.
Winner...I've used your posted chart and overlayed it onto the S&P500 chart below...The black line is the S&P index, the red line is MA200 and the primary trend line (broke 2 years ago) is blue....
The result wasn't exactly what I expected...I assumed the extreme positive sentiment to be the signal for a major bull market correction or cyclic reversal , however that didn't happen after the June 2014 sentiment peak...There is an eyeball correlation but the degree of the falls can not be predicted..eg comparing the degree of the two sentiment values with the degree of the two falls in the index) that of Oct 07 peak to Oct 08 trough and Jun 14 and Sept15/Feb16
Another interesting fact is with all the sentiment volatility in the last couple of years the index has moved only about +/- 10%..in other words, investing in the index those last couple of year would have resulted in uncertain mental stress and bugger all $$$ to show for it..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2009022017.png
Up again this morning (NZ time) things looking good, 2500 here we come.
that's very clever Hoop
I get the impression the the bullish/bearish sentiment number is rather a reaction as to where the market has recently gone - lagging activity if you get what I mean.
Eye-balling the chart sentiment turns after the market turns or gains/losses slow down (either way)
Suppose sort of behaviour you would expect - with markets at reord highs at the moment most are bullish eh
Nice looking chart - what can go wrong
Well done
An ancient (8 year old) bull (second oldest bull in S&P history) achieving a best record run in a quarter century.....Sharemarket theory and DOW theory recommends an Ambulance should be deployed immediately.. travel at high speed to keep up with this raging geriatric demented** bull so to be immediately available to assist when the old fella suffers a coronary arrest and goes balls up.
Demented**.....Shiller P/E currently at 29.3...the last 140years it has only been higher twice 1929 (32.6) and 1997-2001 (43.2)..all the other high P/E crashed the stockmarket around 25
With Shiller P/E at 29.3 the calculations say (see box below) that if it takes 8 years to revert back to the mean (16.7) there will be implied future annual return of -1.6% over that 8 years....
Quote Gurufocus In reality, it will never be the case that Shiller P/E will reverse exactly to the mean after 8 years. Table below give us a better idea on the range of the future returns will be if the market are within 50% to 150% of the mean.