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Thread: Harmoney

  1. #2296
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    Quote Originally Posted by alistar_mid View Post
    So, 81704 made just the one correct payment before defaulting? And 2 others made no payments at all. Either you struck an unlucky streak or Harmoney did - pity it's you that carries the cost.
    Last edited by BJ1; 20-06-2017 at 04:50 PM.

  2. #2297
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    Since the inception of auto lend I have monitored my defaults list.
    I rarely get any with the magic wand icon ( auto lend) and when they do they are normally only 1 to 30 days old then dissappear.

    It will be interesting to fast forward a further few months to see if my Autolend rules are working. From looking at stats most arrears occur up to the 9/10 month mark and loans after that date seem to have fewer defaults.

  3. #2298
    yeah, nah
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    Three Months in:

    Invested: $88,375.00
    Loans: 967
    Avg. Loan Size: $91.39
    Auto-Lends: 288
    Avg. Interest: 22.77% (Weighted)
    Avg. Exp. Return: 15.73% (Weighted less Default+Fees+Tax)

    Expected Monthly Return to deal with: $2,410.86 (Principal + Interest : excludes payoffs)
    XIRR.: 17.18% (stable - see graph)
    Interest Paid to date: $1,299.00

    Another week or two and I should be all in for $100K.

    Current default write off $95.83 (I write off at 60+days - two $50 loans, a D4 and an E3).

    chart-risk.png chart-term.png
    Split and term.

    chart-risk-grade.png
    Detailed risk grades - I've dropped off B3 from my Auto-Lend criteria to bring it down - not sure if this is a result of volume of B3's or some bias on Auto-Lend or me...

    chart-xirr.png
    Interesting XIRR chart over time, clearly shows why RAR is not provided until after 90 days. I'm just past 90 days now - shouldn't be to far away from getting one from Harmoney.

    I'm working on a loss of 2% pa due to defaults (a little higher than what I expect it to be). Will be interesting to see how that goes...

  4. #2299
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    Myles, been watching your posts since you started and I must say good luck on your Investing.

    You have been investing for three months and you already have 3 write offs. Doesn't that ring alarm bells?

    I have been investing in Harmoney for a few years now but since they changed the limits the quality of the loans have fallen drastically

    Here's a prime example from tonights listing,. Why anybody would invest in this is beyond me. Only paid 4 instalments and then Harmoney allows a rewrite for more debt with a very small monthly income.Screen Shot 2017-06-20 at 11.21.05 PM.jpg

    I have a set of rules for most grades that I had from the start and use to get 5 to 10 loans a day a year ago. Now with the same rules now I would be lucky to get 5 a week. That says to me there is something inherently wrong with Harmoneys objectives now. Remember the only one loosing money on Defaults are the investors. They rant on about how good there "risk management" is but it certainly not good since the increase in lending limits.

  5. #2300
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    I have been investing with Harmoney for about 18 months but 80% of my balance was invested in the period July - Sept last year. Monthly charge off's were good and under theoretical (based on Harmoney estimates) until February this year. My charge off budget for the 2017/18 financial year is $955. So far, just under three months into the year, I am sitting on $636 charge offs this year - me thinks my budget will be well and truly blown!

    Those loans that do make it through the next twelve months without defaulting or being repaid, if the graph on the Harmoney site is correct, should help give me a better result next year, but as we all know, most loans do not run anywhere near full term.

    I agree with you Snow12 about a distinct decline in borrower quality - I don't remember seeing many (if any) A's or B's whether the borrower was renting before, now this seems commonplace and often for large loans.

  6. #2301
    yeah, nah
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snow12 View Post
    You have been investing for three months and you already have 3 write offs. Doesn't that ring alarm bells?
    It's 2 loans in 30-60 arrears, but I write them off at 60 days so my numbers are a more realistic present value. (Harmoney list it as $1.88 in arrears if that helps). At this stage this doesn't set off any alarm bells for me. I consider $2,000 to be charged-off each year to be expected for the loan spread that I have. Ask me again in 7-8 months, my opinion might change when arrears really kick in
    Last edited by myles; 21-06-2017 at 11:49 AM. Reason: Payments made changed arrears amount, which include other loans.

  7. #2302
    yeah, nah
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    Out of interest, the two loans in arrears that I have are below:

    Arrears.jpg

    The first one I'd invest in again. Lots of enquiries but affordable and stable person (long time at address and employer).

    The second one, no...what was I thinking...boarding, previous loan with no repayments...but a small affordable loan so maybe...NO!!!

    Still time for these to come good, but not holding my breath...

  8. #2303
    centurion I
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    I have made a summary of my current arrears, a total of 22/700 active loans. 2.38% of mortgage holders are in arrears and 3.48% of renters. So the spread is fairly even.
    Another interesting fact is that 24% of my active loans are in the Auckland region with only 3 loans in arrears.

    But I guess the most notable fact is 3/20 fully owned holders are in arrears, that is 15%, something that I didn't expect. I guess there is not the large volume of these loans to be able to see a trend develop!
    Attached Images Attached Images
    Last edited by permutation; 21-06-2017 at 12:16 PM. Reason: addendum

  9. #2304
    yeah, nah
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    Interest paid today was $56, so I'll have those two defaults covered by tomorrow :P
    Risk vs Reward!!!

  10. #2305
    Senior Member Toasty's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by myles View Post
    Out of interest, the two loans in arrears that I have are below:

    Arrears.jpg

    The first one I'd invest in again. Lots of enquiries but affordable and stable person (long time at address and employer).

    The second one, no...what was I thinking...boarding, previous loan with no repayments...but a small affordable loan so maybe...NO!!!

    Still time for these to come good, but not holding my breath...
    On the second one I would have been comforted by the 4 years in employment. That probably would be enough for me to give it the nod. Not sure how I feel about someone boarding in the same place for 29 years. Stable or no hope?

  11. #2306
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toasty View Post
    On the second one I would have been comforted by the 4 years in employment. That probably would be enough for me to give it the nod. Not sure how I feel about someone boarding in the same place for 29 years. Stable or no hope?
    Been there since age 10? so maybe with family and paying board? Wish he was my son

  12. #2307
    yeah, nah
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toasty View Post
    On the second one I would have been comforted by the 4 years in employment. That probably would be enough for me to give it the nod. Not sure how I feel about someone boarding in the same place for 29 years. Stable or no hope?
    Paid today

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