CBL Insurance IPO

[kiora]

It appears that market is pricing in a good HY result and some keen punters wanted to get in going by the big crossing the other day. Surprised to see how quickly it moved up over last few trading days...

B/c its tightly held

[sb9]

Sure I saw on Friday another decent parcel of 100k crossed @3.69 from on stocknessmonster...

[sb9]

2	5	1:48:34 pm	360	6,000	$21,600	Off Market
3	4	1:48:23 pm	360	500,000	$1,800,000	Off Market
4	3	1:48:10 pm	360	70,649	$254,336	Off Market

Nice

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed - both analysts on 4-traders just upped their target price. New consensus target is $3.95 (up from $3.73). Nice.

Obviously - day traders don't need to apply - patience is here the game;

[JoeGrogan]

Forecasted EPS of .28 still seems a tad lofty to me, however, looking forward to being proven wrong in the HY update.

Source for EPS number: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities...asts?s=CBL:NZC

[BlackPeter]

Forecasted EPS of .28 still seems a tad lofty to me, however, looking forward to being proven wrong in the HY update.

Source for EPS number: https://markets.ft.com/data/equities...asts?s=CBL:NZC

Why? Remember - they had this year already a number of EPS accretive acquisitions:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4471793

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4394764

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4337501

[JoeGrogan]

Why? Remember - they had this year already a number of EPS accretive acquisitions:

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4471793

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4394764

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=4337501

The forecast given in the supplementary materials to the annual report was 18-22% underlying profit growth. So a calculation of a 20% increase is $55,440 mil, which is about .235 underlying EPS. Of course this forecast could be conservative and not take into account the full impact of these acquisitions, i guess we will find out soon enough.

[BlackPeter]

The forecast given in the supplementary materials to the annual report was 18-22% underlying profit growth. So a calculation of a 20% increase is $55,440 mil, which is about .235 underlying EPS. Of course this forecast could be conservative and not take into account the full impact of these acquisitions, i guess we will find out soon enough.

FP as well as 4 traders work with IFRS numbers - not "underlying EPS". Maybe this is the issue?

[JoeGrogan]

FP as well as 4 traders work with IFRS numbers - not "underlying EPS". Maybe this is the issue?

FT states that 2016 eps was .198 this has to be underlying eps unless i am missing something? I think 4traders was the same but the site isn't loading for me to check right now. If they were using IFRS numbers then there is even less chance .28eps is reached imo.

[BlackPeter]

FT states that 2016 eps was .198 this has to be underlying eps unless i am missing something? I think 4traders was the same but the site isn't loading for me to check right now. If they were using IFRS numbers then there is even less chance .28eps is reached imo.

Not sure I understand your logic ... and where your numbers come from

However 2016 EPS was 13.31 cents (check out page 24 of their annual report - quite at the bottom, or look into 4-traders). From memory - this was due to some currency fluctuations (i.e. no real money lost or gained - they just keep their money in the countries in which they need to pay out the claims). I was under the impression that FT gets their numbers from 4-traders (they frequently seem to copy the same errors ), but who am I to know. I hardly work with the FT database - too many gaps, not enough info.

So - why exactly does this make the 28 cents (or 27.7 cents actually) for 2017 still more unlikely? Any currency fluctuation might go this year into the other direction (actually this is highly likely) - and as I said - lots of money making acquisitions made ...

But anyway - I have no insider knowledge and in this market anything can happen. Not long until they announce it anyway ... lets just enjoy the thrill - shall we ?