CBL Insurance IPO

[Snow Leopard]

Assuming a starting point of a 'normalised share-weighted FY2016 EPS' of $0.21 and assuming that the numbers being bandied about here for FY17 & FY18 are based off an equivalent basis,
then,
I regard them as too agressive.

Both are 30%+ YoY growth and proffer absolutely no allowance for the downside risks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[BlackPeter]

Assuming a starting point of a 'normalised share-weighted FY2016 EPS' of $0.21 and assuming that the numbers being bandied about here for FY17 & FY18 are based off an equivalent basis,
then,
I regard them as too agressive.

Both are 30%+ YoY growth and proffer absolutely no allowance for the downside risks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

No doubt - the 2018/19 EPS assumptions do look enthusiastic (lacking a better word). However - even if we reduce the (average) growth assumption to only 10% (meaning no further expansion, just organic growth) and the EPS to something like 25 (EPS13 - less than the 2017 consensus) does the share still look good value (still only half of what Graham's formula would compute).

And this is not taking into account the move into the US and all the Brexit related European growth opportunities with London losing its free entry into the EU (don't forget - CBL are a EU based business after all).

Happy to wait for history's verdict - and if the SP really only doubles (when the market wakes up), than I am happy to take this on the chin ...

Of course - it all can turn to custard ... it wouldn't be the first insurance company doing this trick, i.e. DYOR!

[kiora]

Assuming a starting point of a 'normalised share-weighted FY2016 EPS' of $0.21 and assuming that the numbers being bandied about here for FY17 & FY18 are based off an equivalent basis,
then,
I regard them as too agressive.

Both are 30%+ YoY growth and proffer absolutely no allowance for the downside risks.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Thanks PT,sounds reasonable

[BlackPeter]

And the newest star in the NZX50 is .... CBL !

https://www.nzx.com/companies/CBL/announcements/302622

They are joining the index on Monday, 19. June. Some opportunity for index funds to push the SP up ... the smart money obviously owns them already ;

Discl: proud holder .

[trader_jackson]

Although CBL fitted with my 'growth + dividend' approach, I was sceptical of CBL.

So far they have proven me very wrong, well done to all the holders.

[winner69]

Although CBL fitted with my 'growth + dividend' approach, I was sceptical of CBL.

So far they have proven me very wrong, well done to all the holders.

Probably sceptical because you didn't understand there business

No harm in not investing in anything you don't understand

[percy]

Probably sceptical because you didn't understand there business

No harm in not investing in anything you don't understand

I totally agree,with both of you!

[Lola]

Probably sceptical because you didn't understand there business

No harm in not investing in anything you don't understand

Im in there too and dont understand their business,,,,eg...would they have any exposure to that frightening Fire?

[Joshuatree]

make thAT XXXX

[BlackPeter]

Im in there too and dont understand their business,,,,eg...would they have any exposure to that frightening Fire?

Highly unlikely, they are not a fire insurance.

Only theoretical option I could see is IF
a) the recent renovations (e.g. cladding) had anything to do with the spread of the fire AND
b) they did underwrite the liability insurance for the company which did the renovations AND
c) the company did not follow the local building regulations while doing the job (i.e. could be deemed liable) AND
d) courts see above breach as the cause (or materially contributing) to the event

So - in theory something like that might catch them at some stage ... but I would assume that in this unlikely case they would have reinsurance above a certain amount of damage anyway. In my view no need (for CBL stakeholders) to lose sleep over that right now.