Black Monday

[Daytr]

@Barchart on X
Copper hits most extreme level of contango in 30 years which could be a sign the global economy is facing some trouble

My take is that means there has been some long term buying as the long forwards lend copper back to the market suppressing copper lease rates against USD interest rates, creating a strong contango.

[winner69]

2009 was interesting with oil trading in contando …..many tankers were kept at sea with traders hoping to get the better priçes a bit later on.

[Valuegrowth]

Coco is more expensive than copper. Those who went long on coco beat others. At different time different commodity and stocks will outperform others. Stocks and commodities are hitting all time high and new all-time high before coming big sell-off.


https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/coc...eeze-explained

https://gulfnews.com/business/retail....1711465706552

"Cocoa futures surged above an unprecedented $10,000 a metric ton, extending a historic rally that's already seen prices double this year and which is raising the cost of chocolate."

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savi...ys/ar-BB1kDwn4

"Red flags are arising in the price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500, and multiples mirror levels seen prior to the dot-com bubble crash.
"Every single indicator seems to tell us we're in a historic, historic bubble," Dietrich said. "It's hard to look at that and say that we're not going to see a major, major correction coming. Now is not the time to be putting new money in the market," he warned.
The biggest indicator of a coming correction is "smart money" investors, who are moving out of the stock market and into safer cash equivalents, Dietrich said. He pointed to recent stock sales from billionaires like Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffett, and the Walton family, the heirs to the Walmart empire, as a sign big investors sense the market is poised to correct."

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/mark...us/ar-BB1kz247

[bull....]

Coco is more expensive than copper. Those who went long on coco beat others. At different time different commodity and stocks will outperform others. Stocks and commodities are hitting all time high and new all-time high before coming big sell-off.


https://www.axios.com/2024/03/28/coc...eeze-explained

https://gulfnews.com/business/retail....1711465706552

"Cocoa futures surged above an unprecedented $10,000 a metric ton, extending a historic rally that's already seen prices double this year and which is raising the cost of chocolate."

yep berserk mentioned chocolate on here a number of times in the last mth

[alokdhir]

SML will be first causality of this rate cycle ...underlines the importance of holding well managed low debt companies ...especially like current times .

Highly geared and badly managed companies also do well in low rates environment but higher rates time seperate the men from boys very easily

Will that happen further in retirement village stocks ...RYM got into trouble early and still trying to pull his head over water ...SUM is the clear winner ...even while geared enough ...they managed well ...TRA and HLG also came out shining

[alokdhir]

Top ten highest paid NZ CEOs

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]1

John Cullity
$8,424,045

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]EBOS[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]2[/COLOR]

David Bortolussi
$5,833,127

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]A2 MILK COMPANY[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]3[/COLOR]

Miles Hurrell
$4,607,582

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]FONTERRA[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]4[/COLOR]

Ross Taylor
$3,703,797

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]FLETCHER BUILDING[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]5[/COLOR]

Lewis Gradon
$3,672,242

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]FISHER & PAYKEL HEALTHCARE[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]6[/COLOR]

Vittoria Shortt
$3,562,357

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]ASB BANK[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]7[/COLOR]

Don Braid
$3,534,949

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]MAINFREIGHT[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]8[/COLOR]

Vince Hawksworth
$3,357,981

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]MERCURY[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]9[/COLOR]

David Mair
$3,293,000

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]SKELLERUP[/COLOR]

[COLOR=rgb(255 255 255 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]10[/COLOR]

Greg Foran
$3,133,918

[COLOR=rgb(116 125 200 / var(--tw-text-opacity))]AIR NEW ZEALAND


Just wondering how this works ? Is job of EBOS CEO twice as difficult then others ??[/COLOR]

[/COLOR]

[Bjauck]

That funny moment when you've had a great year and it has still only matched the S&P500
NB-Returns includes net portfolio increase only. No adjustment for Withholding or Imputation Credits



23-24

Returns to March
26.93%

S&P 500
26.0%

Diff to S&P 500
0.93%

Your investment portfolio has done very well. Surely it would make no sense for a NZ based investor to be 100% invested in the USA S&P500. Even the most risk taking portfolio should have some non-American investments and some NZ based investments or term deposits/cash. Yes the American big seven stocks have done well this year.

[Relaxed]

Your investment portfolio has done very well. Surely it would make no sense for a NZ based investor to be 100% invested in the USA S&P500. Even the most risk taking portfolio should have some non-American investments and some NZ based investments or term deposits/cash. Yes the American big seven stocks have done well this year.

Thank you.

But, I'm not 100% in the US. I just use the S&P500 as a rough "am I doing better than the index" guide.
ie, is the effort actually worth it

I'm invested in five countries and 12 different market segments.
Although that is a false picture because some of the companies are themselves across dozens of countries and markets.

I have also managed to miss all of Nvidia and Microsoft, most of Google and Amazon and lots of other good companies.

[bull....]

oil on a tear 90 pivot test ?