Black Monday

[skid]

So very true...

Maybe Trump will surprise every one and step up to the job..

Thats a bit of a dangerous premise about someone who obviously shoots from the hip.

Meanwhile ..good points Mush.
There is already alot of movement away from DB from Hedge funds.
I believe they will eventually negotiate a much smaller fine (otherwise those doing the fining should have their heads examined for not seeing the bigger picture)..but its not a good look...or perhaps I should say it is a good look (behind the curtain)..assuming you have seen the wizard of Oz.

[BlackPeter]

Agree with the "not a good look" re Deutsche Bank, though not a lot of news - just warmed up stuff. The fact that the SP recovered with the rumours that the fine might be smaller indicates as well that the bank is not lost - yet.

So far it looks like they have plenty of reserves and sufficient equity, but sure - these things can change if the bank stays under attack.

However - reading as well some German papers - nobody expects for the bank to falter. A state bailout would be obviously not a good look for the bank, and I am very sure that, if it comes, it would be very very expensive for DBK share holders as well as DBK management, and so it should be. However I don't believe for a second that the German government would allow the Deutsche Bank to crash - certainly not after the lessons learned with Lehman brothers and the GFC.

If we look however for the next reason for the world to stop spinning, than I think we need to look somewhere else ...

[Hoop]

[skid]

Agree with the "not a good look" re Deutsche Bank, though not a lot of news - just warmed up stuff. The fact that the SP recovered with the rumours that the fine might be smaller indicates as well that the bank is not lost - yet.

So far it looks like they have plenty of reserves and sufficient equity, but sure - these things can change if the bank stays under attack.

However - reading as well some German papers - nobody expects for the bank to falter. A state bailout would be obviously not a good look for the bank, and I am very sure that, if it comes, it would be very very expensive for DBK share holders as well as DBK management, and so it should be. However I don't believe for a second that the German government would allow the Deutsche Bank to crash - certainly not after the lessons learned with Lehman brothers and the GFC.

If we look however for the next reason for the world to stop spinning, than I think we need to look somewhere else ...

Yes,all these scares come along and so far have not done game changer type damage. I guess there are a number of ways we can view this--Its just ''move along folks nothin to see here'' or its a bunch of things are are brewing,all contributing in their own way to the real game changer. and who knows what kind of game changer it would be (correction-severe correction--crash) It will always be the former ,until the latter though,I suppose.

[Mush]

Yes,all these scares come along and so far have not done game changer type damage. I guess there are a number of ways we can view this--Its just ''move along folks nothin to see here'' or its a bunch of things are are brewing,all contributing in their own way to the real game changer. and who knows what kind of game changer it would be (correction-severe correction--crash) It will always be the former ,until the latter though,I suppose.

Tend to agree. I think the risks to the global economic outlook are skewed much to the downside.

It's been one of the longest recovery's in History (if you can call it that). Europe has not recovered (GDP wise) since the GFC even though having exceptional policy easing (NIRP). The states, only just recovering now, even with ZIRP. Japan, well, still Japan, negative rates, buying corporate debt/EFTs etc.

The un-intended consequences of having monetary policy at extremely low levels for an extended period of time will only have caused excessive risk taking (aka, Deutsche and their huge derivatives book, $18T of which are classified as Tier 3 assets, which have $0 book value as cannot be priced/valued).
Just a matter of trying to find out where theses cracks might become apparent.

[Leftfield]

A fall in gold prices could indicate all is well and that the world is not going to end..... yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ce-brexit-vote

[JBmurc]

So very true...

Maybe Trump will surprise every one and step up to the job..

Or GW Bush ... bankrupted the oil company he was involved with..... not the smartest cookie

[Blue Horseshoe]

A fall in gold prices could indicate all is well and that the world is not going to end..... yet.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ce-brexit-vote

That's what they want you to think - Central bank manipulation !. Got to to keep the ponzi scheme going.

[Mush]

Attachment 8342

Above shows the NZD/USD (yellow) and NZX50 (purple).

Interesting to note the action in recent days:

- FX market waking up to the scenario of an RBNZ cut and a FED hike in December, caused a 100point decline in the NZD yesterday (helped by a weak dairy auction), and seemingly a change in sentiment.
- Approaching some key levels in the NZD which could potentially cause a move down to around 0.6930 (dependent on non-farm payrolls number this Friday)

This bodes the question, "Where does the NZX head?"

In my opinion, foreign flows are what is driving the market and any potential decline in the kiwi causes a similar move in the index.

Could potentially have a bit of a Black Monday scenario next week if we get some significant Dollar strength due to a big non-farm payrolls figure (which increases the market pricing of a FED hike in December). Given the recent string of strong ISM data that has come out of the states, this is looking increasingly likely.

Regards,
Mush

[bull....]

rate hike expectations in US causing selling in NZ share market and hence lower NZD as funds are repositioned into other markets would imagine it has a little lower to go all healthy though