Tegel IPO

[Joshuatree]

Verdict: Private Equity selling at the top to gain maximum value. Avoid at this stage, but watch closely over the next 12 months.

Is that your opinion ?.Hopefully not advice as thats dangerous ground.Priced at the BOTTOM of range.Good yield defensive, lower risk play for me to be a starter in this one.

[Grunter]

Is that your opinion ?.Hopefully not advice as thats dangerous ground.Priced at the BOTTOM of range.Good yield defensive, lower risk play for me to be a starter in this one.

It's priced at the bottom of the range because that the maximum price the sellers think they will be able to clear their allotments for. They will of course build in a slight discount to make the offer attractive after the IPO.

I'd never give advice on an internet forum hah!

[Hectorplains]

I don't think people eat more chicken when they're poor. Meat is the expensive thing you stop eating when you're struggling.

The point is that people are eating more chicken in proportion to other meat as it is the cheapest option.

[winner69]

Re lew's note above

Revenues have been pretty stable over a period of time, so this is definitely not a growth opportunity. Jeez lew growth last 3 years have been 6.8%, 8.8% and 3.3% this year. That's better than stable

Margin seems to be very slim. EBITA margins pretty reasonable and not very slim, been >10% last few years with this year 12.9% (Gross margin by the way is 23%/24% which I agree isn't fantastic

chicken is a substitute good for more expensive meats, so should see consumption increase in poorer economic conditions. Hope you right there lew - could call it a growth initiative - adding more to the growth rates mentioned above

A bit concerned about the big boost in profits the year before the IPO - smells of dressing up the turkey. Reading the papers again to come to that conclusion have we lew my old mate. The increased ebita (profits) has been driven mainly by increased sales off set to some extent by increased costs (growth initiatives they say) hardly the stuff of dressing the turkey up.

Lew - did you bother read/study Pages 56-60 of the Disclosure Statement?

Whatever Tegel will be a great investment in the short to medium term. Maybe even for the longer term if things go their way. I reckon the share price will be over $2 by year end

[Lewylewylewy]

Nope, i didn't read pages 56-60, but I also didn't say those things

I think your rebuttal might be aimed at Grunter

[Hectorplains]

It's priced at the bottom of the range because that the maximum price the sellers think they will be able to clear their allotments for. They will of course build in a slight discount to make the offer attractive after the IPO.

I'd never give advice on an internet forum hah!

Affinity remain significantly invested, they've sold only about one-third of their equity, retaining 45 per cent and that will be escrowed until after Tegel releases its 2017 results. Unless the shares are trading 20% higher than their IPO price when Tegel releases its half-year numbers. Affinity's interest is closely aligned to a strong sp, and that'll be driven by good earnings.

[Lewylewylewy]

For the record, I've not done any in depth research into tegal because it doesn't fit my strategy at the moment and I don't like the idea of supporting animal cruelty.

[winner69]

Affinity remain significantly invested, they've sold only about one-third of their equity, retaining 45 per cent and that will be escrowed until after Tegel releases its 2017 results. Unless the shares are trading 20% higher than their IPO price when Tegel releases its half-year numbers. Affinity's interest is closely aligned to a strong sp, and that'll be driven by good earnings.

So $1.55 plus 20% is $1.86

Half year to September 16 announced mid to late November

By hook or by crook easy on target to beat the IPO financials

Share price at $2 then I reckon

Things on a roll and Affinity sell 50%

Then 2017

Is that how you see it hector

[Valuegrowth]

I think time to come many countries may implement some sort of animal welfare.

http://ec.europa.eu/food/animals/welfare/index_en.htm

Animal welfare

[Hectorplains]

So $1.55 plus 20% is $1.86

Half year to September 16 announced mid to late November

By hook or by crook easy on target to beat the IPO financials

Share price at $2 then I reckon

Things on a roll and Affinity sell 50%

Then 2017

Is that how you see it hector

Yep - three key factors - huge scaling back almost guarantees an immediate gain on listing, then the good div yield keeps that sp up along with Affinity driving to maximise their exit. Should be around $2 at year end.