Tegel IPO

[Leftfield]

Hi all

Further to the above has there been any news on this share to drive the slump? It's dropped 10% or so in 2 weeks.

I have to say I'm a bit confused by Tegels share price performance. It was listed at the lower side of guidance at $1.55, beat prospectus information and has had pretty good news flowing through since the listing, yet the share price hasn't gone anywhere. It has a decent chunk of my holdings, but I'm a little concerned there doesn't seem to be a lot of interest since its listing. I notice most analysts have it at $2 within the next 12 month?

P.S. long time lurker but finally joining in the fun!

Welcome to ST Jeremy. I suspect there will be a question mark over this SP for some time due to quite a few factors such as;
1.) Investors may be waiting to see more info on actual financial results (runs on the board) and updated predictions v prospectus.
2.) October is generally a 'low' or 'risky' period for many shares on the NZX and with the USA elections looking very unpredictable, many potential investors may be happy to sit and watch from the sidelines at this time.
3.) IPO's are no guarantee of ever increasing SP's. Indeed the market is littered with examples where IPO expectations are not met. Early posts on this thread show some of the misgivings on this IPO, and perhaps some of these chickens are coming home to roost!
4.) Lastly much depends on your investment time frame. If your time frame is is only 6 months, then you may be disappointed. However if it is 5 yrs, then the current SP may be just a short term glitch.

I wish you well with yr investment.

(Disc - not a holder. Watching from left field )

[mshierlaw]

Hi all

Further to the above has there been any news on this share to drive the slump? It's dropped 10% or so in 2 weeks.

I have to say I'm a bit confused by Tegels share price performance. It was listed at the lower side of guidance at $1.55, beat prospectus information and has had pretty good news flowing through since the listing, yet the share price hasn't gone anywhere. It has a decent chunk of my holdings, but I'm a little concerned there doesn't seem to be a lot of interest since its listing. I notice most analysts have it at $2 within the next 12 month?

P.S. long time lurker but finally joining in the fun!

Look back to recent sucessfull IPO's they all fell initially following listing: SCL, MEL (MELCA), MCY. Punters wanting to see pedigree before fronting up.

TGH share price now back to pre AUS fresh chicken anouncement levels. I could not see how this announcement justified a trading HALT.

DISC: stalking & becoming more tempted.

[Jantar]

Hi all

Further to the above has there been any news on this share to drive the slump? It's dropped 10% or so in 2 weeks.

I have to say I'm a bit confused by Tegels share price performance. It was listed at the lower side of guidance at $1.55, beat prospectus information and has had pretty good news flowing through since the listing, yet the share price hasn't gone anywhere. It has a decent chunk of my holdings, but I'm a little concerned there doesn't seem to be a lot of interest since its listing. I notice most analysts have it at $2 within the next 12 month?

P.S. long time lurker but finally joining in the fun!

Maybe it will pickup in the future. I am another just watching from the sidelines as the EPS and PE only give this share a value of around $0.65 at present. After their next annual report we may see some more encouraging numbers, so I'll hold off till then.

[JeremyALD]

Thanks everyone, really appreciate the context. Makes a lot of sense now. I perhaps got a bit too excited by the AU fresh chicken announcement, but with "significant" opportunity written everywhere in the trading halt announcement it seemed tempting as a growth prospect!

[silverblizzard888]

At the end of the day you need to consider that this company is earning very low profits, saturated with debt and even if they are able to expand into different markets they may not be getting the best margins if expenses go up. You'd want to wait to see next financials and see if there are any improvements to warrant an investment, but as it stands this stock is overvalued for the value it will deliver for shareholders.

[Hectorplains]

At the end of the day you need to consider that this company is earning very low profits, saturated with debt and even if they are able to expand into different markets they may not be getting the best margins if expenses go up. You'd want to wait to see next financials and see if there are any improvements to warrant an investment, but as it stands this stock is overvalued for the value it will deliver for shareholders.

I agree that a lot hinges on them meeting their 2017 forecasts. However, from the IPO the Group repaid $130m debt. Their net debt is $120m, at a leverage ratio of 1.6 times. That's hardly what you'd call 'saturated' levels!

[percy]

Top NZ "brand" food producer.
Strong balance sheet.
Ratios are modest,and dividend yield is attractive.
Chicken consumption is growing.
Room for export growth.
Stable earner for long term investors.

Above posted 16-4-2016
Since then there has been very little news.
The "Room for export growth" is proving right with the very positive announcement that Tegel will be able to export fresh chicken to Australia.
The Ingham float does give investors another chanal to invest in the chicken market,and may be one of the reasons for recent sp weakness.
The agm on 19th October should give an update of trading.
The reasons I brought into TGH remain intact.

[winner69]

Yes Percy, there will be a couple of announcements coming up and they will be really positive ones.

ASM 19 October - good time to say trading has trading has been strong and all that stuff and H1 will be ahead of prospectus forecasts. Come early November another announcement giving by how much more (possibly lots)

So good H1 result late November and a bullish outlook for the full year .....and share price will be 190/200 in December and Claris will be able to hock off 1/2 their shares. The other 1/2 go after full year announcement.

That's the exit plan - by hook or by crook they will make it happen

Can't lose from here ......20% plus to be made in a few months .....no worries

[percy]

Yes Percy, there will be a couple of announcements coming up and they will be really positive ones.

ASM 19 October - good time to say trading has trading has been strong and all that stuff and H1 will be ahead of prospectus forecasts. Come early November another announcement giving by how much more (possibly lots)

So good H1 result late November and a bullish outlook for the full year .....and share price will be 190/200 in December and Claris will be able to hock off 1/2 their shares. The other 1/2 go after full year announcement.

That's the exit plan - by hook or by crook they will make it happen

Can't lose from here ......20% plus to be made in a few months .....no worries

Spot on.!
Means off course we are "well positioned".
Longer term I expect to hold this "consumer staple",for the very reasons I brought into it.

[winner69]

Spot on.!
Means off course we are "well positioned".
Longer term I expect to hold this "consumer staple",for the very reasons I brought into it.

Goodness gracious me - below $1.60 now

Lowest ever close was $1.58 - so could be a record of sorts today

Maybe all the good things percy and me were saying is a load of the proverbial