Tegel IPO

[silverblizzard888]

Do they have to do a downgrade annoucement before the annual result, or could they put the downgrade in the result announcement? I'm not sure how the disclosure rules work. Let's say they make 30 million profit, would they need to disclose that prior to the annual result? Surely they know at this point if they aren't tracking to forcast.

Usual case is when something is off by about 10% or more its considered material enough to make a disclosure immediately the minute they know of it. By not disclosing once known, then they are in breach of listing rules. Though it doesn't need to be 10%, but its a rough guideline, usually what a reasonable person would expect to know, it should be considered more than minor.

[JeremyALD]

Thanks guys makes sense. Given their forcast was so wide it would be really quite embarrassing if they didn't make it

[hardt]

I'm still expecting a downgrade. Won't surprise me in the slightest if they struggle to make $30m.

What new information do you have on their performance this half or is this just a hunch?

Macros support the theory of a solid result being on its way in June.

Don't mistake my demeanour for anything other than curiosity.

[hardt]

https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/...ernal_Data.xls

I guess people didn't believe the board when they claimed poultry prices were in the dumpster during 2016FY...

Now coming into 2017, over 3 quarters in and poultry spot has risen from NZ153 - NZ190 = +25%

	PPOULT - US	PPOULT - NZ	USD/NZD FX RATE
2016Aug	111.04	153.16	1.3793
2016Sep	110.34	151.43	1.3724
2016Oct	110.15	154.03	1.3984
2016Nov	110.19	155.57	1.4118
2016Dec	113.01	162.67	1.4394
2017Jan	114.48	156.57	1.3677
2017Feb	114.36	158.96	1.3904
2017Mar	123.95	179.73	1.4271
2017Apr	130.70	190.31	1.4561

[winner69]

https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/...ernal_Data.xls

I guess people didn't believe the board when they claimed poultry prices were in the dumpster during 2016FY...

Now coming into 2017, over 3 quarters in and poultry spot has risen from NZ153 - NZ190 = +25%

	PPOULT - US	PPOULT - NZ	USD/NZD FX RATE
2016Aug	111.04	153.16	1.3793
2016Sep	110.34	151.43	1.3724
2016Oct	110.15	154.03	1.3984
2016Nov	110.19	155.57	1.4118
2016Dec	113.01	162.67	1.4394
2017Jan	114.48	156.57	1.3677
2017Feb	114.36	158.96	1.3904
2017Mar	123.95	179.73	1.4271
2017Apr	130.70	190.31	1.4561

How does that relate to domestic NZ prices ......or what Tegel are getting

Just curious

[hardt]

How does that relate to domestic NZ prices ......or what Tegel are getting

Just curious

Should have clarified exclusive to export prices, there is no source [ that I know of ] that would indicate domestic prices here.

I would think for the most part, when the standard global spot price of a commodity goes up, possibly to a lesser extent AU/NZ would follow...

[Balance]

https://www.imf.org/external/np/res/...ernal_Data.xls

I guess people didn't believe the board when they claimed poultry prices were in the dumpster during 2016FY...

Now coming into 2017, over 3 quarters in and poultry spot has risen from NZ153 - NZ190 = +25%

Good work, Hardt but I do not think that NZ poultry price trend reflects the US spot price trend.

According to Stats NZ, government food price data for March 2017 showed chicken prices fell 6.5 percent for the year.

US poultry price actually rose 8.39% over the same period - in NZ$, price was up 5.6% (NZ$ actually strengthened from .6730 in April 2016 to .7083 in March 2017).

As usual, demand and supply are the over-riding factors when it comes to setting domestic prices.

[winner69]

Good work, Hardt but I do not think that NZ poultry price trend reflects the US spot price trend.

According to Stats NZ, government food price data for March 2017 showed chicken prices fell 6.5 percent for the year.

US poultry price actually rose 8.39% over the same period - in NZ$, price was up 5.6%.

As usual, demand and supply are the over-riding factors when it comes to setting domestic prices.

Jeez - chicken prices down 6.5% (at retail?)

Possible that the supermarkets have reduced margins and Tegel stil doing OK?

[Balance]

Jeez - chicken prices down 6.5% (at retail?)

Possible that the supermarkets have reduced margins and Tegel stil doing OK?

TGH's half year results acknowledged decline in margins and drop in prices.

"Expecting recovery in the second half however".

Personal observation says that chicken prices have not recovered - still plenty of discounting going on, especially for drumsticks and now, chicken nibbles.

[Joshuatree]

Did i dream it or did i hear rumour they've selectively bred hens that have 3 or 4 drumsticks now; that would partially explain the glut?