Tegel IPO

[couta1]

Equivalency has now been drawn between food [ which is required for human life] and a thousand dollar aeroplane ticket to get you halfway across the world because you need a break from work...

It is not like Tegel is selling a luxurious niche product that given a downturn in the market will see a drastic shift in consumer behaviours, they sell chicken for Godsake!

I can tell I am not getting my point across here, if I think its a good buy at $1.07, I sure as hell am going to buy in at 80C for a 10% dividend in a company that sells food to hungry people...

Go with your own convictions, you only have to convince yourself it's good buying at current levels, if others disagree, that doesn't matter, just like I've convinced myself that Air is not good buying at current levels.

[silverblizzard888]

Equivalency has now been drawn between food [ which is required for human life] and a thousand dollar aeroplane ticket to get you halfway across the world because you need a break from work...

It is not like Tegel is selling a luxurious niche product that given a downturn in the market will see a drastic shift in consumer behaviours, they sell chicken for Godsake!

I can tell I am not getting my point across here, if I think its a good buy at $1.07, I sure as hell am going to buy in at 80C for a 10% dividend in a company that sells food to hungry people...

No equivalency has been drawn between food needed for living and flight tickets needed for travel whether for business, special occasions and general travel (not just tickets for worldwide travel, last I checked AIR was a domestic carrier too ^^.) Flying has become a general transport need like a car. Flying is no longer just a luxury, though it can be too, but very much affordable and many people can travel for quite low prices these days, heck price of a few chickens can have you on the plane these days when buying right.

Actually Tegel do sell premium added value products, a luxury in terms of chicken products, not everyone will be having a budget to afford that. Most only having a budget for their chicken drums, thighs and the whole chicken (low margin products).

Your points are taken and its a fair perspective, though I feel you've narrowed your vision down too much, perhaps it may serve you well and perhaps it won't, markets generally shows whose right in the long run and if you think the risk is worth it at $1.07 I can respect that too. I hope you can keep that optimism if in the case it drops to 80 cents and keep enough money to average down.

[Beagle]

Following simple TA analysis would have avoided holders losing a LOT of money. Clear and ongoing downtrend since last August at $1.80. Breech of the 100 day MA would have seen IPO investors sell at $1.67 for a modest profit. NEVER EVER buy in a downtrend (KW). Currently the 100 day MA is $1.25.

Until that's breeched on the upside confirming the end of the downtrend and the establishment of a recovery, TA people would be keeping their powder dry.
For more aggressive TA investors looking to buy into the early stages of a trend reversal even the 30 day MA is at $1.14.
With the recent resignation of the Chairman I see no reason to take a speculative position regardless of what PE one think's is fair because the question is just as much what is the profit for FY17 but also what is the outlook for FY18 ?

[percy]

So very true.................PPH...??????????????......... .....lol.

[Rep]

Jeez - chicken prices down 6.5% (at retail?)

Possible that the supermarkets have reduced margins and Tegel stil doing OK?

Yeah, Foodstuffs and Progressive would take a hit for their supplier so that they can keep making enough money... you haven't worked in FMCG industry have you Winner?

[Balance]

Yeah, Foodstuffs and Progressive would take a hit for their supplier so that they can keep making enough money... you haven't worked in FMCG industry have you Winner?

Notice how Foodstuffs and Progressive take time bi-weekly to have chicken on special? And this week, Mad Butcher has drumsticks on special again at $2.99 kg and breasts at $7.99 kg.

[Rep]

Notice how Foodstuffs and Progressive take time bi-weekly to have chicken on special? And this week, Mad Butcher has drumsticks on special again at $2.99 kg and breasts at $7.99 kg.

If a FMCG Demand Manager has a lot of product to shift - particularly if it's perishable fresh product, they will tender/pitch for the promo space with the supermarket category manager.

That will mean either paying for the shelf space (e.g. those aisle end product specials aren't randomly chosen, the manufacturer has to buy that space) and/or doing a deal for the product to be sold cheap to the the supermarket (sometimes it might be a low price, for other reasons - it might be some 'free product' or a rebate if the volume is achieved (which of course it will be as the category manager won't be lured into setting a high hurdle to get their rebate/credit or their free pallets of product). Inghams and Tegel are apparently busting at the seams with fresh product - so you'll see fresh product used as a loss leader. Excess fresh product is usually frozen or turned into value add... when that value add starts being discounted then it's a good indicator that the frozen warehouse space is full as well.

[Balance]

If a FMCG Demand Manager has a lot of product to shift - particularly if it's perishable fresh product, they will tender/pitch for the promo space with the supermarket category manager.

That will mean either paying for the shelf space (e.g. those aisle end product specials aren't randomly chosen, the manufacturer has to buy that space) and/or doing a deal for the product to be sold cheap to the the supermarket (sometimes it might be a low price, for other reasons - it might be some 'free product' or a rebate if the volume is achieved (which of course it will be as the category manager won't be lured into setting a high hurdle to get their rebate/credit or their free pallets of product). Inghams and Tegel are apparently busting at the seams with fresh product - so you'll see fresh product used as a loss leader. Excess fresh product is usually frozen or turned into value add... when that value add starts being discounted then it's a good indicator that the frozen warehouse space is full as well.

Plenty of that going on with our local Pak n Save - chickens (drumsticks, nibbles, legs, breast meats etc) on special at the entry area all week long!

And frozen lamb legs a few days ago.

[sb9]

Plenty of that going on with our local Pak n Save - chickens (drumsticks, nibbles, legs, breast meats etc) on special at the entry area all week long!

And frozen lamb legs a few days ago.

Absolutely, have noticed that with our local Countdown too..plenty of Tegel (Fresh and Frozen) stuff on sale.

Must be going on guns blazing to reach sales targets I think.

[Rep]

Absolutely, have noticed that with our local Countdown too..plenty of Tegel (Fresh and Frozen) stuff on sale.

Must be going on guns blazing to reach sales targets I think.

And thus sales are achieved and the promo/rebate quietly gets slipped into marketing and promotional costs...