Bud

[jib]

Hey team

This stock has been mentioned over on the Disruptive Tech Stocks thread but thought it probably deserves its own.

Operating in the Internet of Things (IoT) space, Buddy is based in Seattle but is currently setting up an office in Adelaide and has recently listed on the ASX via a backdoor takeover of Potash Minerals. The company boasts a very impressive listed of investors and partners and was the first investment made by Microsoft Ventures.

Both of the below videos are well worth checking out.

A quick intro on Buddy
https://vimeo.com/150232444

Investor conference call which took place a few days ago
https://vimeo.com/150821585

I dipped my toes in earlier this week.

[Snow Leopard]

You may be interested in the two videos here >> [https://www.youtube.com/user/BuddyPlatform]
These shows the direction that Buddy were originally taking before they changed to their current focus.

Interested in what they are [now] up to - I was doing this sort of stuff (developing software to take large amounts of data and process/store/analyze it in real time) with a company in California up until 10 years ago.
They are certainly using some of the same buzz words that our sales guys used.

It seems that the problems of big data today are the same as those of a decade ago (but we did know to call it big data then), there is just more of it today and more powerful computers with which to handle it.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[Joshuatree]

Thanks PT , nothing on that website for me.$200 mill fully diluted mkt cap seems a bit rich.

[showstring]

Some good additional info/research

http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/what...-buddy.2628472
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/winner.2558194/
http://hotcopper.com.au/threads/full...et-cap.2567186

I think this stock could be quite big in 2016 and beyond.
It's got superb management/directors, and is in one of the hottest sectors right now.

[bung5]

I agree, 200mil market cap is a lot to pay for what its got currently! Would be keen to get in but would have to be half the current price to be tempting.

[showstring]

FYI current market cap is $132 million if you include all the escrow shares (escrow for 24 months) http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUD:AU
without the escrow shares, market cap is $46 million


also FYI for these kind of new companies in "growth" phases, the market usually values "potential" more than it does "what the company currently has"


Buddy operates in a hotter than hot market sector, and has a superb product. Even a small slice of the pie offers immense potential

IoT between a $7 trillion and $13 trillion market by 2020
http://www.computerworld.com/article...o-for-you.html
http://www.arabnews.com/economy/news/852966

BaaS market (where Buddy specifically operates) - $31billion by 2020
http://www.strategyr.com/pressMCP-7959.asp


as has been previously posted, Buddy used to work on apps, but they have pivoted into the back-end IoT hosting provider, so their specific sector would be a combination of IoT + BaaS
better explanation can be had watching the investor conference video that has been posted - https://vimeo.com/150821585

I'd consider the current price of Buddy (under 20c) to be similar to buying Xero in the $1-2 range

My near-term (Feb) price target is 30-40c

DYOR

[Joshuatree]

Thanks again for your int info shoestring I've highlighted a few, colossal figs.helps me understand IOT better.

"To put the growth of IOT in numbers, one can could witness 40 to 80 billion connected objects by 2020, he said.
Smartphone is going to become the central connecting hub to various devices even as every human being will be connected to 10 different objects."
"Analysts estimate that the revenue potential in IOT is between $1.2 trillion to $13.3 trillion and the most significant investments will go into civic management, health care, education etc"

[Baa_Baa]

FYI current market cap is $132 million if you include all the escrow shares (escrow for 24 months) http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BUD:AU
without the escrow shares, market cap is $46 million


also FYI for these kind of new companies in "growth" phases, the market usually values "potential" more than it does "what the company currently has"


Buddy operates in a hotter than hot market sector, and has a superb product. Even a small slice of the pie offers immense potential

IoT between a $7 trillion and $13 trillion market by 2020
http://www.computerworld.com/article...o-for-you.html
http://www.arabnews.com/economy/news/852966

BaaS market (where Buddy specifically operates) - $31billion by 2020
http://www.strategyr.com/pressMCP-7959.asp


as has been previously posted, Buddy used to work on apps, but they have pivoted into the back-end IoT hosting provider, so their specific sector would be a combination of IoT + BaaS
better explanation can be had watching the investor conference video that has been posted - https://vimeo.com/150821585

I'd consider the current price of Buddy (under 20c) to be similar to buying Xero in the $1-2 range

My near-term (Feb) price target is 30-40c

DYOR

You might be right with that XRO comparison, though that remains to be seen whether BUD can achieve anywhere near the growth and loyal irrational exhuberant shareholder base What I'm seeing is that BUD has appeal but is mired in it's reverse listing details and hangover options, rights etc, but is trading already at 2x its IPO right now. That's a double right there (gone). What's giving you confidence that it will double again anytime soon? Forget the 'market', if you can let us know about signed contracts, ACMR and revenue in the "very short term", that'd be great. Seriously looking, just can't quite see the near term horizon upside that you forecast. Cheers.

[showstring]

Here are my reasons for my market cap valuation of $250m+ in the near-term.

1. Two US based DIY-type-IoT companies were acquired for similar valuations few years ago
http://www.iot-now.com/2014/07/24/23...ogy-portfolio/
Axeda was acquired for US$170M on July 23, 2014
Thingworx were acquired for US$130M on 31 December, 2013

I believe Buddy has a superior product which is worth more, and the IoT space is 'hotter' now.

2. Dave said customers on page #21 slide have ~$20m revenue if you exclude the Federal government.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2015102...yvv7498lk0.pdf

3. They are in discussions with both US federal government, and AUS federal/regional government, which are much bigger contracts, however discussion/contract lead time is 18-24 months due to size and complexity of the deal. So will have to wait a bit longer until those get signed on the dotted line (but I'm fairly sure it will happen).

4. Dave mentioned that slide #21 in that investor presentation is result of 3-4 months of sales engagements and stressed the fact that was all the way back in October 2015. It sounds like they now have more potential customers with expanding levels of interest, and have more money available for expanding marketing efforts due to a very successful IPO. So I anticipate rapid growth. Additionally, Dave was asked a question if they had any imminent customer contract sign-ups and he just said "yes, next question".

5. If the 4C quarterly due end of Jan is positive (which I believe it will be), and if they announce 1 or 2 new customers by Feb, I think it will easily reach 30-40c valuation, at least on hype alone. Another requirement for this price prediction is no mass global panic in equities and the world not ending. If 30-40c hits it might be a good short term target to sell, and re-buy if you think it might get back into the 20c; if they don't keep announcing new customers that is.


As an example of a similar US-based newly-reverse-listed company with similar growth potential, look at 1PG
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/company.do#!/1PG

They listed on October 2014 (first Silion Valley company to list on ASX), so refer to 5 year chart.

Share price appreciation between BUD and 1PG might not become identical, due to 1PG having a lot less shares on issue, but I think it will be fairly similar

[bung5]

aprox 700,000,000 million shares in the company issued already

and another aprox *280 odd mil options that are already in the money already or close ( *from memory, can't be sure without looking into it again)


give it a diluted mcap of around 200mil already