Possible Removal
COA - already confirmed delisting on 24 June
NPX - takeover candidate
STU - market cap dropped to $194m
SKL - market cap dropped to $246m
TWR - market cap dropped to $301m
KMD - market cap dropped to $300m
Possible Additional
SCL - market cap $451
PAY - market cap $527
TGH - market cap $583
VGL - market cap $469
THL - market cap $329
ARV - market cap $300
AFT - market cap $290
Of course it is not just market cap. The methodology is described here:
http://us.spindices.com/documents/me..._download=true
Of note are any shareholder with more than 5% holding are excluded from the free float calculation. E.g. Tegal's free float is on 55% of market cap due to a 45% shareholder
Interesting is that CVT recently was added with a market cap of $400m. But nearly 30% would not be counted toward free float. So I estimate that at the time, CVT had a free float of $280M.
So of the above stocks, I think these would beat the $280m:
TGH -55% free float - $320m
SCL 82% free float - $370m
VGL: 69% free float - $329m
PAY: 55% free float $289m
STU: Free float 85% free float $165
But getting added is not that easy by quarterly reshuffle, the stock needs to beat the rank buffer. This means it needs to rank 44 or high to be added and 56 or lower to be dropped.
Thus it is much easier to get onto index if another stock is delisted.
If I were a betting man (I am), I would put my money on SCL replacing COA. Then if NPX was delisted, VGL would take their place. Whether STU is removed is not clear.
Caveat: It is tricky to work out the free float because some 5% shareholders may be in custodian account. I did not include these in my calculations.
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