NZX50 - Additions and Removals

[noodles]

Possible Removal
COA - already confirmed delisting on 24 June
NPX - takeover candidate
STU - market cap dropped to $194m
SKL - market cap dropped to $246m
TWR - market cap dropped to $301m
KMD - market cap dropped to $300m

Possible Additional
SCL - market cap $451
PAY - market cap $527
TGH - market cap $583
VGL - market cap $469
THL - market cap $329
ARV - market cap $300
AFT - market cap $290

Of course it is not just market cap. The methodology is described here:
http://us.spindices.com/documents/me..._download=true
Of note are any shareholder with more than 5% holding are excluded from the free float calculation. E.g. Tegal's free float is on 55% of market cap due to a 45% shareholder

Interesting is that CVT recently was added with a market cap of $400m. But nearly 30% would not be counted toward free float. So I estimate that at the time, CVT had a free float of $280M.

So of the above stocks, I think these would beat the $280m:
TGH -55% free float - $320m
SCL 82% free float - $370m
VGL: 69% free float - $329m
PAY: 55% free float $289m


STU: Free float 85% free float $165

But getting added is not that easy by quarterly reshuffle, the stock needs to beat the rank buffer. This means it needs to rank 44 or high to be added and 56 or lower to be dropped.

Thus it is much easier to get onto index if another stock is delisted.

If I were a betting man (I am), I would put my money on SCL replacing COA. Then if NPX was delisted, VGL would take their place. Whether STU is removed is not clear.

Caveat: It is tricky to work out the free float because some 5% shareholders may be in custodian account. I did not include these in my calculations.

[Beagle]

Good thread Noodles. I'm a betting man too and SCL is my top pick for entry into the NZX50 and my biggest current holding. I certainly enjoyed the 20% increase in CVT's SP that happened in double quick time after it was announced they were to be included in the NZX50 although its not crystal clear how much of this was attributable to their ongoing stellar performance and how much due to index tracking funds buying in.

What was clear though is that index inclusion can potentially have a meaningful positive effect on the SP so this is a great thread to ponder the possibilities.

I note the timetable regarding NPX might mean the takeover should be quite a drawn out matter and could drag out till as late as November 2016.

[trader_jackson]

SCL is also my 'bet' on what one would be included in NZX 50, ARV and AFT almost certainly not due to free float rules (especially AFT with around 88% locked up in escrow for another year! [I think])

[Snoopy]

Possible Removal
COA - already confirmed delisting on 24 June
NPX - takeover candidate
STU - market cap dropped to $194m
SKL - market cap dropped to $246m
TWR - market cap dropped to $301m
KMD - market cap dropped to $300m

What about PEB? Even with today's price rise to 64c, the market capitalisation is only:

0.64 x 376,543,478 = $240.6m

That would all be free float I would imagine, because there couldn't be any institutional investors out there foolish enough to invest?

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

Possible Removal
COA - already confirmed delisting on 24 June
NPX - takeover candidate
STU - market cap dropped to $194m
PEB - market cap dropped to $241m
SKL - market cap dropped to $246m
TWR - market cap dropped to $301m
KMD - market cap dropped to $300m

With June approaching, time to update the 'small five' following Towers revised profit guidance today.

Possible Removal
COA - already confirmed delisting on 24 June
NPX - takeover candidate
STU - market cap dropped to $185m
PEB - market cap dropped to $237m
SKL - market cap dropped to $256m
TWR - market cap dropped to $263m
KMD - market cap dropped to $306m

Possible Additional
SCL - market cap $454 x 0.82 = $372m
VGL - market cap $480 x 0.69 = $331m
TGH - market cap $584 x 0.55 = $321m
PAY - market cap $495 x 0.55 = $272m

SNOOPY

[boysy]

Til might be one to watch MC $248 with results out Friday.

[noodles]

Til might be one to watch MC $248 with results out Friday.

With 60% of the float locked up by 2 shareholders, I think TIL would need to more than double in price.

[Beagle]

I still reckon SCL is the favourite to be added. TWR could possibly tank even further in the next few days as the market digests their horror result and outlook.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

You guys realise that it isn't based on a decision by someone? Read how it is determined and you can calculate exactly who will be added and removed.

[Beagle]

You guys realise that it isn't based on a decision by someone? Read how it is determined and you can calculate exactly who will be added and removed.

Not that easy as its based on average free float market cap for the last six months and certain liquidity criteria as well. I tried to absorb it all and nearly lost the will to live...