Feltex (FTX) - All over for shareholders

[Snow Leopard]

quote:Originally posted by Dubdee

I think buying interest is FX related. Note OZ cross rate has declined at same timing buying has started. The market believes that FTX is sensitive to movements on the OZ cross rate. This only effects their wool carpet sales in OZ, so its not as big a deal as many think, but positive all the same

My initial reaction was "don't be silly", however having had a look at the AU/NZ cross rate and the SP, well it may be coinicidence but then again it may not, but there does seem to have been some correlation.
OZ is in fact the largest market for Feltex, and Feltex do keep mentioning the cross rate when prediciting profits.

So we have people reacting to the rate of the day as opposed to the predicted long term prognosis may be?

[Lawso]

For what it's worth, Forsyth Barr are very positive about FTX in today's Sunday Herald. " . . . a number of attracive investment fundamentals . . . strong brands . . . full year '05 yield of 10.3%" FB reckon FTX is trading at a 25% discount to their valuation of $2.10 and recommend "Buy".
Remember though that this is the crowd that for years had FBU as a Sell.

[Dontpet]

Why is it that I'm reminded of those scenes from the cowboy movies where everything is quiet, the hero is standing out in the open plain and around the corner stream a herd of angry cattle (and not the denobbed kiwi variety)? Having recently seen my interest in Briscoes and Sandford take a drubbing my confidence is failing with this producer of mite homes. Any comments?

[halcyon9]

reading Sharetrader would have kept you out of both BGR and SAN.

I recommended a SELL on both (with alternative options) and most people were not bullish on these shares over the last year.


eg... http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=19284

3rd page, post by cloudnine.




welcome to the site

[Dontpet]

Yeah, Ok, Sanford was a clear dud and I don't know why I stayed into it [B)]. BRG opinion seems to have been more clearly divided about. But Feltex doesn't seem to be producing much interest on this site. Is that the lack of speculative potential?

What I'm asking is is this company uninteresting because of it's limited potential or uninteresting because it is a writeoff (ex. Sanford)?

PS Thanks for the welcome. It's great reading the ditties that people write on this site. The little wars between the personalities (some of whom might or might not exist)add a little spice to the more thoughtful postings.

[limegreen]

Less speculative stocks are often less talked about. Some of my better long-term returners attract very little comment at all, so that's certainly part of it.

Earnings forecasts and prospective dividend yield suggest there may be some upside to FTX, but the proof will be in the pudding (or closer to the announcing as the case may be). In the interim there is not a great deal to say.....

[limegreen]

It's hasn't happened on substantial volume, but FTX has broken above it's 3 month resistance level of $1.59. (That one spike peaks at 1.66, which is almost 1.59 + 6c divi). Will be interesting to watch over the next few trading days.

[winner69]

Come on guys .. I started this thread last September and it is still about the same price

Has that burst a few weeks ago the best this stock can do?

Doing better then CAV though

[Snow Leopard]

If we assume that the market sees Feltex as Oz/Nz exchange rate sensitive as suggested by Dubdee then the recent rise and fall can be attributed to the rate movement.
The six months result must be out by the beginning of March and I guess we will see how Feltex has faired. In my opinion the market is expecting a lower than forecast profit and is worried that life is rather difficult for our favourite carpet maker.
Hopefully they will have a bit of a surprise for us and confidence will wash over all those potential share buyers out there.
Must admit I have been a little disappointed so far but I bought in with the intention of giving them till the 05 FY results to prove themselves and have so far stuck with it, but I have been tempted to hit the sell button more than once.

Exercising patience can be a very fustrating experience at times.
CAV: Knowing that someone is doing worse doesn't cheer me up that much [B)]

[limegreen]

quote:The six months result must be out by the beginning of March

Or if they're being uber-diligent, they could arrive relatively soon. We're only a week off 3 months since their first quarter report (although six month might take more preparation?). Anyway, in the quarterly review they suggested that profitability is strongest in the second and fourth quarters, so with the first quarter looking good, maybe a second quarter surprise and divi announcement might provide some impetus.

DISC: FTX