Process of Research

[winner69]

Heck Aaron - that's a real change of heart

Probably means the crash is a near certain next April/May once you become 'fully invested'

[Aaron]

Heck Aaron - that's a real change of heart

Probably means the crash is a near certain next April/May once you become 'fully invested'

You could almost guarantee it based on my brief investing history but I can't wait any longer. Central banks could keep digging this hole for a lot more years yet and people with money in the bank are the ones they are screwing over.

[peat]

Heck Aaron - that's a real change of heart

Probably means the crash is a near certain next April/May once you become 'fully invested'

Oh dear, someone had to say it

This is always the case and why you should never be out of the market,
Aaron, just choose quality, and diversify, and slowly does it. Even if you overpay on a short term basis , quality companies will get through any tough patch and come out
intact and recover.
Yesterday I talked someone out of buying FPH, coz its a crazy price, but even if you bought it now and had a five year view you will almost certainly come out alright.

[Aaron]

Oh dear, someone had to say it

This is always the case and why you should never be out of the market,
Aaron, just choose quality, and diversify, and slowly does it. Even if you overpay on a short term basis , quality companies will get through any tough patch and come out
intact and recover.
Yesterday I talked someone out of buying FPH, coz its a crazy price, but even if you bought it now and had a five year view you will almost certainly come out alright.

It would have been nice if I could have bought companies on sale at half current prices though. It will be a bitter pill to swallow if there is a big fall after I have purchased. We avoided a depression in 2008 things are now more precarious than ever, you might be waiting longer than 5 years for the economy to recover from a depression. The trend of easier money and lower interest rates has been going for decades a reversal might last until long after I am dead. Although the current trend might last long after I am dead as well, who knows.

[macduffy]

Not many of us are old enough to remember Jim Slater, Aaron, but for what it's worth, here's a present day take on his 10 "mature bull market" signals. Apply with care - different times, different rules, perhaps?

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...7f811-82636925

[Aaron]

Not many of us are old enough to remember Jim Slater, Aaron, but for what it's worth, here's a present day take on his 10 "mature bull market" signals. Apply with care - different times, different rules, perhaps?

https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...7f811-82636925

Quote from article "So of the ten signals here I’d say only three - valuations, liquidity and interest rates - are really flashing red. I’m personally nervous and have a higher cash weighting in my portfolio than for many years. Perhaps that’s the most positive sign anyone could ask for."
My change of view is that interest rates aren't really going up far. I think one or two percent rise in Japanese govt bonds and the entire govt budget is required to service debt. Every crisis since the 1990,s has been met with a lowering of interest rates. Ken Rogoff suggests the need to do away with paper currency so central banks can take interest rates negative. I am unsure about the US and China in regard to govt and private debt but from what I read it has all been rising considerably making it impossible to raise interest rates without crashing everything. If interest rates go negative asset prices no longer matter only your ability to access credit.

Valuations seem high on a risk/yield basis but as Warren Buffett points out share values aren't too bad compared to bond yields. This won't change if we are stuck in a low interest rate environment. Only deflation will make bonds a better bet and that won't be allowed by central bankers.

Liquidity I don't really understand. I assume this is cash sloshing around financial markets. Central banks again will guarantee liquidity. The Japanese Central bank already has bought a large chunk of the Japanese stock market. I don't suppose there is a plan to ever sell again.

Everyone also needs to be euphoric as well which is definitely not the case. I am concerned a few billionaries are joining the nay sayers but asset prices remain propped up indefinitely by central banks.

I'll give it another couple of months before partially throwing in the towel.

Read the newspaper according to National the world will end if Labour get in power. Bill should know how fear works to encourage belief and support. He won't be burning in hell for all eternity when he dies.

[Aaron]

Maybe I will wait a bit longer before buying.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ash-dead-ahead

[winner69]

Maybe I will wait a bit longer before buying.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-0...ash-dead-ahead

There's a quote on that page linked - On a long enough timeframe the survival rate for everybody drops to zero

Go on Aaron - may as well havea go now before its too late