AIR - Air NZ.

[couta1]

525+ Million, but until the final figure is known, there's an awful lot baked into the current SP IMO.

[winner69]

Look at Slide 13

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/259318.pdf

That's why they love their outrageous bonuses being based on relative performance to certain indices

Cool eh

[Beagle]

* Very pleased with how they're running the company
* Very pleased they're targeting consistent dividends across the cycle, (perfect dividend hounds stock)
* Good that FY18 capex is down ~ $150m, plenty of opportunity to shrink their gearing back to the middle of targeted range 45-55%
* Very pleased with their highly disciplined approach towards future growth
* Targeting improved CASK
* Growth in loyalty programs
* Upgraded guidance as expected but still looks extremely conservative @ $$525m, I'm expecting $550 - $600m
* We appear to have passed the high tide mark for intensity of new competition and as recent entrants look to either confirm the profitability of their new route or quit
* I see a gradual ongoing improvement in the yield environment
* The recent lift in SP has solid foundations behind it in my opinion.
* Still expecting very significant special dividends in FY20 - FY22
* Expecting stable 10 cps final this year - Gross dividend yield from ordinary dividends is ~ 10% with current SP, (happy with that).
* I won't comment whether I think its worth more than $3 but have been topping up recently as high as $2.85 (speaks for itself).

[bull....]

be interesting to see how much the market had priced in the better performance.

[winner69]

* Very pleased with how they're running the company
* Very pleased they're targeting consistent dividends across the cycle, (perfect dividend hounds stock)
* Good that FY18 capex is down ~ $150m, plenty of opportunity to shrink their gearing back to the middle of targeted range 45-55%
* Very pleased with their highly disciplined approach towards future growth
* Targeting improved CASK
* Growth in loyalty programs
* Upgraded guidance as expected but still looks extremely conservative @ $$525m, I'm expecting $550 - $600m
* Shareholders are extremely well positioned going forward. We appear to have passed the high tide mark for intensity of new competition and as recent entrants look to either confirm the profitability of their new route or extricate themselves from same I see a gradual ongoing improvement in the yield environment
* The recent lift in SP has solid foundations behind it in my opinion.
* Still expecting very significant special dividends in FY20 - FY22
* Expecting stable 10 cps final this year - Gross dividend yield from ordinary dividends is ~ 10% with current SP, (happy with that).
* I won't comment whether I think its worth more than $3 but have been topping up recently as high as $2.85 (speaks for itself).

Surely you were worthy of an invite to the do - investor and company advocate

[Beagle]

Surely you were worthy of an invite to the do - investor and company advocate

I would agree and be pleased to attend but it is limited to institutional investors and analysts. Already tried to make the case for large retail holders to attend with Tony Cater in my discussion with him last year. It is what it is and to be fair at least this time retail shareholders can watch it here live http://edge.media-server.com/m/p/kuo3uxit/r/1 and website will be updated with recording later. Hopefully some of the N.Z. analysts can read the tea leaves now they've been handed them on a silver platter.

[sb9]

My pick is they're likely to hit $550m target at least...

[sb9]

That's one heck of presentation, so much to take in....need a good hour or so to go through in detail. Just flicked through highlights for now...

[stoploss]

525+ Million, but until the final figure is known, there's an awful lot baked into the current SP IMO.

Coming across as sour grapes now Couta let it go ......$ 2.94 and counting , that's a lot of opportunity cost you left on the table. An uptrending stock in a hot industry ......

[Beagle]

That's one heck of presentation, so much to take in....need a good hour or so to go through in detail. Just flicked through highlights for now...

I agree 100%. Already my #1 investment position but I will be studying that presentation in great detail today and updating my thinking for FY18 and FY19 forecasts.
My preliminary thinking is we're headed close to $600m this year and I can't see any obvious reason that won't be replicated in FY18. That would give after tax EPS of circa 38 cps. Average ten year PE is 11. I think the market is already modelling in the specials as a given hence the most compelling medium term investment case from the divvy yield perspective. I am modelling a five year average gross dividend yield of 15% inclusive of special's.