AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Pretty coy about what they going to do with that ever increasing huge pile of surplus cash in a few years time ....sort of mentioned reducing leverage but I think that was a diversionary tactic

My take, massive special dividends. I am only counting on 2 x 25c specials in the three years from FY20-FY22 but with ~ 80-90 cents per share free cash flow in each of those years it could be a lot higher and I know modandum thinks a series of 50 cents specials is on the cards.

On another subject funny how what goes around comes around... Outspoken CEO of Qatar Al Akbar gave AIR heaps when he was here recently http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/8...o-vast-network and now Qatar are really getting "it back in their face" by the truckload with many countries closing their airspace to Qatar flights. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/05/mi...log/index.html

More good news http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...s-turbineshtml

[GTI]

My take, massive special dividends. I am only counting on 2 x 25c specials in the three years from FY20-FY22 but with ~ 80-90 cents per share free cash flow in each of those years it could be a lot higher and I know modandum thinks a series of 50 cents specials is on the cards.

On another subject funny how what goes around comes around... Outspoken CEO of Qatar Al Akbar gave AIR heaps when he was here recently http://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/8...o-vast-network and now Qatar are really getting "it back in their face" by the truckload with many countries closing their airspace to Qatar flights. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/06/05/mi...log/index.html

More good news http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e...s-turbineshtml

Nice one, i want to buy more on weakness despite the naysayers...

[theace]

Going shoppping..... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11870587

[couta1]

Nice one, i want to buy more on weakness despite the naysayers...

The majority of the negative talk on here during the time I averaged down to obtain my XOS holding was just trash and down ramping. Some of it even got personal, and that was also nonsense. PS-A bit dear for me right now but happy to bide my time.

[stoploss]

Gee Roger @ 300mio a shot , they might have to keep a bit in the bank for the down payments ?

[Beagle]

Nobody pays retail or anything like that Stoploss. Current bunch of Dreamliners cost them ~ $150m a pop. Regarding the 777X, 400 seats is difficult to fill for a small airline. I see it as far more likely they'll sign up for a stretched version of the Dreamliner with deliveries starting mid next decade. I don't see much in the way of deposits leaving their account until at earliest, (in my opinion), 2023.
Interestingly at the briefing last week management were at pains to point out that this big hump in capex we're rapidly working our way through is something we're unlikely to see again. Ostensibly it was caused by the 4 1/2 year delays in the Dreamliner program. The 80-90 cps in free cash flow I'm referring too is based on their current business size. Obviously with the extra aircraft arriving as they finish their capex program and expanded services / frequencies to various points in their network as well as possible new routes between now and 2020 we could be looking at close to $1 share in free cash flow in the 3 years from FY20 - FY22. You think the Government might give them clear instructions on their special dividend expectations
P.S. All AIR are asking manufacturers for this year is a report on the detailed spec's of new aircraft types, currently in development and proposed...sort of on a scoping study for want of a better description.

[RTFQ]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-navy-turbines

[RTFQ]

[QUOTE=Roger;669140]Nobody pays retail or anything like that Stoploss. Current bunch of Dreamliners cost them ~ $150m a pop. Regarding the 777X, 400 seats is difficult to fill for a small airline. I see it as far more likely they'll sign up for a stretched version of the Dreamliner with deliveries starting mid next decade. I don't see much in the way of deposits leaving their account until at earliest, (in my opinion), 2023.
Interestingly at the briefing last week management were at pains to point out that this big hump in capex we're rapidly working our way through is something we're unlikely to see again. Ostensibly it was caused by the 4 1/2 year delays in the Dreamliner program. The 80-90 cps in free cash flow I'm referring too is based on their current business size. Obviously with the extra aircraft arriving as they finish their capex program and expanded services / frequencies to various points in their network as well as possible new routes between now and 2020 we could be looking at close to $1 share in free cash flow in the 3 years from FY20 - FY22. You think the Government might give them clear instructions on their special dividend expectations
P.S. All AIR are asking manufacturers for this year is a report on the detailed spec's of new aircraft types, currently in development and proposed...sort of on a scoping study for want of a better

/QUOTE]

Quite right Roger. The only aircraft planned replacement is for the 772, 309 seats, and that's some years away.

[Baddarcy]

..... I see it as far more likely they'll sign up for a stretched version of the Dreamliner with deliveries starting mid next decade...

I initially thought it seemed a no brainier to go for the 787-10, but the 787-10 looks like its range might be a bit limited at 6400m. Looks like it is about 1000 miles less than the 777-200ER. Unless Boeing can come up with an ER version of it i think Air NZ may end up with something more like the 777-8 which looks about the right size (between 777-200 and 777-300) and has a massive range 8000+.

[Beagle]

Quite right mate, 787-10 designed for shorter range and denser seating configuration and probably won't suit AIR. I'd be surprised if Boeing didn't come up with another stretched ER version.
To the best of my knowledge AIR still have 6 remaining options on Dreamliners, maybe these options are at very advantageous prices and they'll simply exercise them in due course and be content to use Houston as a hub and code share with partners elsewhere in the States. Sometimes you go through scoping studies only to find that what's right under your nose is the optimum solution.