AIR - Air NZ.

[Beagle]

Announcement from Boeing published in Air Transport News today.

"Boeing has confirmed delivery of the first 787-9 to Air New Zealand, the launch customer for the larger version of the Dreamliner that received FAA and European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) certification last month.

“Boeing is proud to have contractually delivered the first 787-9 Dreamliner to Air New Zealand,” a Boeing spokesman said. “We look forward to celebrating the milestone with our customer soon.”

Air New Zealand has 10 787-9s on order for delivery through 2017. The -9 is 20 feet longer than the 787-8 currently in operation. The Auckland-based airline is configuring the 787-9 with 18 business class seats, 21 premium economy seats and 263 economy seats."

So AirNZ now own the 787, really look forward to it arriving here very soon.

Thanks`. I understand the first commercial flight is to Perth on 15 October. Can you shed any light on why it takes just over 3 months to begin commercial operations ?

[Robomo]

Thanks`. I understand the first commercial flight is to Perth on 15 October. Can you shed any light on why it takes just over 3 months to begin commercial operations ?

I understand that the plane will be used for ad hoc trans-tasman flights (crew training purposes - easier on short flights, lots of landings and takeoffs) as well as static training and engineering training. So the old A320 you thought you booked on next time you fly to Sydney could well suddenly turn out to be a brand-new 787-9 - you might get a nice upgrade as well whilst the crew practice handing out drinks in business class!

[Hoop]

I'll be able to buy some tomato sauce with my profits to make it more palatable

Roger you edited your post at 4.30pm
It was this ..
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Originally Posted by Roger
I'll be able to buy some tomato sauce with my profits to make it more palatable Just accept it mate, you were overdue for a failure with your TA, getting it right six out of seven isn't so bad..
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Second thoughts ..huh??
No problems from me...All good Roger.I love debates (constructive) and the odd banter..we can learn and add experience from them.

Air did fall back (215.5) this morning (after trading hours last night) to test it's one buy signal area the EMA50 break point (215)...Thats good news...more good news is someone bought 1 million shares at 217 a moment ago..so this may create another buy signal in the money flow indicators...
My discipline shows not enough signals to re-enter..probably need to exceed 220 I'm guessing and also for the NZX index to rally.....As more buy signals appear it will lessen the risk of a dead cat bounce.

The NZX50 index is still disappointing..it seems the global rally is by-passing us (edit: I've now noticed NZX index has just enough buy signals for me to start buying NZ Shares )

[Beagle]

^^ I love a good healthy debate too mate. I admire you're discipline in sticking to your system, the main thing is too have a system in this sideways market, something I'm sure we can agree on and you've been very successful with picking close too the top to date
I've been thinking a lot overnight about what effect a 5-7% growth per annum in top line and a 3% reduction in expenses will do to the bottom line in the years ahead if the company meets its key targets.
As I 'm sure everyone knows airline companies traditionally have wafer thin profit margins. I'm trying to get my head around what impact this could have on their net profit, anyone like to share their thoughts ?

I think the reason the global rally will continue to bypass us boils down to three key factors.
1. Our market is already trading at a 22 year high on a forward PE basis 17 times is right out at the upper extreme based on history and history shows PE's always contract when they hit excessive level's.
2. The Reserve Bank have it wrong and are looking in the rear view mirror. Interest rates are already too high when its clear commodity prices have already seriously corrected. Another rise in the cash rate would be absolute madness in my opinion.
3. The wide plethora of new listings is sucking too much cash from the market, simple supply / demand imbalance.

Biker - You'll like this mate. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...rgin-boardhtml

[biker]

Biker - You'll like this mate. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...rgin-boardhtml

Yes, indeed Roger, and now looking for these percentages to transpose! :-)

"...........Shares in ASX-listed Virgin Australia last traded at 42.5 Australian cents and have gained 12 percent this year. On the NZX shares in Air New Zealand rose 0.5 percent to $2.18 and advanced 32 percent this year."

[modandm]

I've been thinking a lot overnight about what effect a 5-7% growth per annum in top line and a 3% reduction in expenses will do to the bottom line in the years ahead if the company meets its key targets.
As I 'm sure everyone knows airline companies traditionally have wafer thin profit margins. I'm trying to get my head around what impact this could have on their net profit, anyone like to share their thoughts ?
[/url]

If you PM me your email I can send you my model. I don't use simple assumptions like expenses going down 3% - in fact I don't agree with that figure at all - expenses will rising by between 2% and 3% on average over the next few years. I flex assumptions like fuel price, NZD, and most importantly top line revenue growth. My individual line item (P&L forecast), is based on history, best guess, and conversations with senior management.

I'm pleased to say I have done a decent job forecasting so far, largely because I have picked top line and fuel cost reasonably well (and appreciated the value of NZD strength).

I don't forecast cash or balance sheet because cash is lumpy and the leverage ratio supplied and forecast by Air NZ is the only information I need. This is an earnings momentum story for the foreseeable future, with dividend ramping to reflect that. In a few years time cash generation will be incredible but I don't want to get excited about that yet.

[Beagle]

Thanks mate, PM sent.

Lots of great info on the all new 787-9 Dreamliner. Looks like a real game changer
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-e...ectid=11285548

[Zaphod]

My individual line item (P&L forecast), is based on history, best guess, and conversations with senior management.

How approachable at a one-on-one level have you found senior management at AirNZ to be on these matters? I assume you're involved in the finance sector, so that might weight quite heavily on their enthusiasm to engage, but I'm just interested in your thoughts on accessibility, especially given AirNZ's culture.

With respect to the companies I hold shares in this has been a mixed bag; with some you can call the CEO directly (despite being relatively high market cap companies), while others are only really accessible during annual meetings.

[Beagle]

330 min ETOPS wont make any operational difference. The 777s have 240 mins and don't use it ( or very rarely) so 330 is superfluous for AIR and provides no operational boost whatsoever.

New routes planned to be opened-up including South America which will indeed make use of the ETOPS 330. Not trying to be argumentative mate, just providing evidence concluding this recent matter we debated.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=10795990

Extract from that article

The national carrier is getting the 787-9 version, able to carry between 250 and 290 passengers. Air New Zealand hopes that the 787's huge range and impressive fuel efficiency will allow it to open up new routes to South America and across most of Asia, including India.

[Snow Leopard]

New routes planned to be opened-up including South America which will indeed make use of the ETOPS 330. Not trying to be argumentative mate, just providing evidence concluding this recent matter we debated.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=10795990

Extract from that article

I note that the article, written by a journo on a jolly, is dated 3 Apr 2012.

So maybe plans are a little different now.

Mind you it would be great if someone did reasonable price airfares to South America.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger